Stars Aligned III - The Tenth Day

[VP Baltar]

Ok, finally caught up. I was trying to avoid saying what equipment i have just because it's more difficult for the scum that way, but it looks like I need to now for clarity. I don't have a rezz kit any longer, so the plans of me rezzing to guarantee my death aren't going to work.

In terms of my five scum picks, I think the grouping of:
Plum
kunkstar
TNM
Nacho
Iec

Has a decent number. Triglav and Andrius can probably be cycled in there for the lower reads. This is of course barring craziness from Seacore and Nico. I don't agree with Feysal about Benmage. Ben is pretty obv town to me, as are hito and Trilo (barring some crazy blindside that I'll be embarassed about later).

I feel pretty good about our chances of winning this thing really. Even with our suicidal members floating around, I think we can wrap this up neatly in a few days with some well placed killings and lynchings.

[xvart]

I don't have a rezz kit any longer, so the plans of me rezzing to guarantee my death aren't going to work.

When/how did you get rid of your rez kit and why?

[VP Baltar]

I dropped it after the Furpants kill. I was hearing noises basically every night, so I started to get the feeling I was being rezzed. I decided that there probably stood an increasing chance that I was going to draw the ritual as the game went on and me having a rez kit essentially meant I was probably going to die the same way Tom did, rezzing and possibly leaving a lot of WIFOM floating about. I decided to switch to Forensics tools so I could hopefully catch out a cultist or two that would be assigned to grave robbing and ritualing and couldn't launder (someone like Baby Spice perhaps). Unfortunately, I've been stalking since then and haven't had a chance to use them anyhow.

[Trilobite]

Our list:

Plum
kunk
Seacore
Nico
Andrius/Triglav

I haven't read the last page or so and I'm tired now so I'll do that later.

~Sotty

[Andrius]

Ok, AGAIN.
WHY AM I & AV ON PEOPLES LIST IF WE ARE DEAD TONIGHT?
/confused

[VP Baltar]

It's who people think are scum. Just because you're dying, doesn't mean you're not scum.

[AurorusVox]

They can think we're dying scum.
<("<)

EDIT: Ninja'd by VPB

It's rather upsetting to see that hardly anyone is putting me on their list and I'm going to die tonight anyway ;_;

WE CAN CROSS OUR FINGERS AND HOPE SEACORE IS SCUM
But I doubt he is /sadface

[Andrius]

ITS OK AV WE CAN CUDDLE TOGETHER IN DEATH.

(>^.^)>

[VP Baltar]

It's rather upsetting to see that hardly anyone is putting me on their list and I'm going to die tonight anyway

-__-

[AurorusVox]

It's rather upsetting to see that hardly anyone is putting me on their list and I'm going to die tonight anyway

-__-

VPB you share my pain. But yours is worse I guess. (INB4 you AND Hito flip scum though, you obvTown monarchs, you.)

[Seacore]

AV, I thought you were scum up until your reaction and behaviour today.

But at least we'll have "Superconfirmed Seacore" by tomorrow.

[Seacore]

We also might need a prod on Plum, seeing as how she's likely going to be the lynch today.

[VasudeVa]

Because you said you wanted TNM to murder VPB. What's the use of clearing VPB as an investigator if he's getting killed off tonight?

Because we want to know if VPB is Town in case he survives tommorow. (Via RezWifom or whatever.)
This is like 10 pages of discussion, problems and whining all answered in one sentence!

[Seacore]

Vas,

Hito confirmed and almost certianly alive > VPB confirmed and probably dead.

[VasudeVa]

Vas,

Hito confirmed and almost certianly alive > VPB confirmed and probably dead.

I don't understand. The shtuff you people were whining about for the last few pages was TNM's stalk, VPB's survival and rezWIFOM correct? Why would we even consider hito who wasn't stalked? If hito gets ripped appart by a Shoggoth, we know he was Town.

If VPB claims a kill attempt on him tommorow for whatever rezWIFOM scenario, then we have to know whether he is Town or not depending if Andy is dead or not.

If VP and TNM end up alive tommorow with a dead andy, we have two confirmed Towns for the price of a single body. It all depends if hito cross-kills or not. If hito cross-kills Andy, then that's a shitstorm I ain't touching with a 10 foot pole.

Am I getting my point across here? >.>

[Andrius]

Wait, if we're letting TNM stalk VP why the hell do you want me to REZ VP?
Or did i mis-read that?
IS TNM stalking or no? (I'd assume that since he's wagon #1 he isn't, but hey.)

[VasudeVa]

TNM stalks VPB
VPB Murders Andy
People rezz whoever the fuck they want.

If ->
1. VPB is rezzed, someone claims the rez, TNM is still alive, Andy murdered = VPB and TNM alive and conf.Town
2. TNM is alive, VP and Andy murdered, hito claims to not murder Andy = TNM alive conf. Town, VPB dead but Town
3. VPB is alive, TNM claims murder, hito did not murder Andy, Andy still alive = VPB is a lying cultbag

The only problem here is if hito and VP are both scum but I don't really see two cult claiming stalks on the same person this early.

[Seacore]

Andrius, IF TNM is given the go ahead to murder VPB, and it's an IF at the moment, then Andrius, you will rez hito. And hito will be murdering you.

Vas, If VP and TNM end up alive tomorrow, with a dead andy, then we will know that VP is town (assuming, in your scenario, it was VP that we gave the go ahead to), but we will not know about TNM, because he may have ritualled VP.

Hito won't cross kill, hito will do what we tell him today, we'll have only one murder attempt on each target.

In the scenario that we give TNM the go ahead then it will work like this.

Seacore murders AV, AV first aids Seacore
Hito murders Andrius, Andrius first aids Hito
TNM murders VP, VP CANNOT REZ AND THIS IS A PROBLEM

The only way the first two can fail is if one of the members of a pair is scum. And then we'll have caught them for, at worst, a 1:1 trade.
The TNM murder VP situation is more problematic, because they can both be town, and an outside agent (ie cult) can fuck with it. Providing us with unreliable information.

So we need to decide whether we give TNM the go ahead, or we lynch TNM.

I currently feel we should lynch Plum and give TNM the go ahead. Worst case scenario VP dies of a ritual, and we can decide tomorrow, based on another night of information, whether to lynch TNM tomorrow or not. To kill VP the cult need to use their ritual, which they'd use anyway, so we're not really any worse off, we're just choosing their target for them.

[VasudeVa]

I currently feel we should lynch Plum and give TNM the go ahead. Worst case scenario VP dies of a ritual, and we can decide tomorrow, based on another night of information, whether to lynch TNM tomorrow or not. To kill VP the cult need to use their ritual, which they'd use anyway, so we're not really any worse off, we're just choosing their target for them.

Highly unlikely that TNM-cult would claim a stalk on VPB, especially after VPB claimed an Andy stalk. Really don't see this happening.

I'm for the above quote though. What I mean to say in a nutshell.

[Seacore]

Vas, you're missing something

TNM

has already stalked VPB last night

also
Successful rez attempts do not tell you what kind of kill was prevented. So it does not confirm the supposed 'murderer'

If TNM's kill does not go through, even if somebody claims first aid and VP admits that he's bloody, we don't know whether it was ritual or murder, so TNM is not confirmed.

[Seacore]

Vas, it might have been a good claim for TNM to do that.

1) TNM was high on our lynch lists. It's why he was put in the position of being forced to stalk and murder

So a cult in that position needs to claim to stalk somebody that, for some reason or another, the 'murder' will not work on, because, obviously, they can't go through with the murder.

So, who can TNM claim to stalk?
Claiming to stalk somebody on the "please stalk" list is a bad move, because we'll say "yes, please kill them" even if it was Andrius or AV, TNM would be the person given the kill go ahead instead of one of the other stalkers. And then TNM would reveal that he can't murder, because he's cult.
So he has to claim somebody that either
a) we don't want him to kill or
b) a result can't be guaranteed on.

In VPB he's found both. VPB has a high town read from most of us, so we don't actually want him dead, but what's more, without a first aid kit, he can't guarantee a result. VPB can come up as ritualled to death tomorrow, and TNM can claim, "cult must have rezzed and ritualled him"

He is pretty much a perfect claim for a cultist is forced to 'stalk and murder'

[VasudeVa]

TNM was forced to stalk and murder? How? Was he on the 'go stalk someone N4' list?

[Seacore]

Yes Vas, he was. I can't find the exact spot (because I have trouble skimming from work due to the whole page not loading up) but both Benmage and TNM claim that it happened. AV and TNM were told to stalk somebody to prove that they could. I believe they were told at some stage to stalk Benmage, but clearly that didn't happen.


That being said, I'm pushing for giving TNM the go ahead because on the off chance that VPB shows up as murdered tomorrow, we have indeed confirmed TNM as town.

And in the far more likely event that VPB doesn't wash out as murdered, then we lynch TNM.

Because the other plan would be to lynch TNM today and lynch plum tomorrow. It's the same thing with less chance of town confirmation and with scum being able to ritual whoever they want instead of VPB.

Can I get a few agrees on this, and we can start actually getting on with the day.

[Seacore]

If we give TNM the go ahead, nobody should rez VPB.

If VPB is murdered tomorrow - TNM is town
If VPB is alive tomorrow, bloody, and there is a ritual kill somewhere else - TNM is town or both are cult
If VPB is alive tomorrow, bloody, and there is no ritual kill - Neither is confirmed, but VPB looks really town.
If VPB is alive tomorrow and not bloody - At least one of them is cult. The other is NOT confirmed.
If VPB is dead tomorrow from ritual - VPB is confirmed town (but dead), and TNM is not confirmed either way.

[VasudeVa]

I thought that TNM stalked out of his own volition since I remember people being very surprised about his stalk.

I see the problem now. I think the best solution now is: If VPB is alive and we don't see the 'Destroyed by an Unspeakable Being' kill flavor tommorow, we lynch TNM with no remorse. Otherwise, they are both Town.

I don't see why we have to prevent the VP rez though. I think the kills and claims tommorow should ultimately help us piece together what happened.

Hito should not cross kill with VP though, we can at least confirm VP this way whatever the result.