Simpsons Mafia (Game Over)

[DemonHybrid]

Actually, scratch that: Deer died last night. ~4 scum on a wagon of 10.

A 2/5th chance of hitting scum.

Vote: tvellalot until more of these people start to speak up.

[Wraith]

Assuming there's no mafia teams, there are roughly 6 Mafiosos. 4 scum would then be in a pool of 11 people.

Where do you get the 6-scum number? Percentage of the total?

[DemonHybrid]

Excuse me:

Unvote, vote: tvellalot

I messed my tag up.

[DemonHybrid]

Assuming there's no mafia teams, there are roughly 6 Mafiosos. 4 scum would then be in a pool of 11 people.

Where do you get the 6-scum number? Percentage of the total?

Yeah.

The ratio is overwhelmingly 1:4 Mafia to town in every game.

[Wraith]

My candidates for the scum are Hiraki and either DH or NC.

@Nero Cain: Okay, put it this way: think about a certain other game we just played. Yes, that game. Compare my playstyles.

Let's see what his reply is.

[DemonHybrid]

Derp, 1:3 (dee h iz dum, duznt no rashioz, lul)

[SensFan]

*Correction, it usually fluctuates between 1:4 and 1:3 depending on if/how they are split up, and how much Power the Scum has.

[DemonHybrid]

*Correction, it usually fluctuates between 1:4 and 1:3 depending on if/how they are split up, and how much Power the Scum has.

Yeah, that's why I said depending on the teams, but I rarely see a game that messes with the ratio because of the power of the scum.

I might be willing to believe a 1:5:18. Too many crazy people in Springfield for there not to be an SK, but that's for a later time. I'm digressing; the best thing to do is to lynch from the smaller pool with more scum, regardless of the number.

[Wraith]

Okay, assuming six scum, my candidates for the scumteam:

Hiraki
DemonHybrid OR Nero Cain OR DarlaBlueEyes
Lowell
Sleepless Assassin
tvellalot
diddin

Some of these reads are stronger/weaker than others, of course. But right now this is my best guess.

[Nero Cain]

You were much much much lurkier that game. Infact thats what I said days ago. Town Wraith=lurker.

[Scott Brosius]

Vote Count 2-5

Benmage(1)- Nachomamma8,
boberz(0)-
DarlaBlueEyes(1)-boberz,
DemonHybrid(0)-
diddin(1)- hiraki,
hiraki(4)- Mariyta, diddin, jasonT1981, Wraith,
jasonT1981(1)- Tragedy,
KageLord(3)-sottyrulez, Steven Hacking, LlamaFluff,
LlamaFluff(0)-
Lowell(0)-
Mariyta(0)-
Nachomamma8(0)-
Nero Cain(1)-Benmage,
ribwich(1)-The Fonz,
SensFan(0)-
Sleepless Assassin(0)-
sottyrulez(0)-
Steven Hacking(0)-
The Fonz(0)-
Tragedy(0)-
tvellalott(1)- DemonHybrid,
Wraith(3)-SensFan, Lowell, Nero Cain,


Not Voting(5)- DarlaBlueEyes, KageLord, ribwich, Sleepless Assassin, tvellalott,

With 22 alive, it's 12 to lynch. Deadline is February 19th at 1pm (EST)

tvellalot has requested replacement.
Sleepless Assassin will be replaced.

I'm trying but it's hard to get people in a 40+page theme game =( not complaining about the participation though

[Wraith]

You were much much much lurkier that game. Infact thats what I said days ago. Town Wraith=lurker.

If you're talking about LOTR mafia, that's not the game I'm talking about. Also: What seems like lurkiness is often me being in class or out of home, or something.

[Nero Cain]

I know what game you were talking about.

[Steven Hacking]

This is a lot of good informaiton. Besides, I've always been a fan of statistics and they seem favorable. I don't have a large sample size to get a feel for how these games are designed, but 4ish scum off the wagon sounds ok. For those keeping track, that's 4/9 because we're out both deer and mist. I don't think it's prudent to spend too much time speculating on the design, because it wastes real scumhunting efforts (much like excessive emphasis on flavor, imo).

So list of suspects (off Mist wagon) = tvellalott, Benmage, Wraith,

Mist7676, Deer

, diddin, Tragedy, Steven Hacking, Sleepless Assassin, Nachomamma8, Lowell

I have a strong town read on Wraith and, to a lesser extent, on diddin.
I've stated before that I've found Tvell and Tragedy suspicious, they're our best bet.
Further scritiny of the wagon:
Sleepless Assassin - The tragedy exchange of vote, OMGUSvoteTHREAT, OHNOESunvote, DEALunvote still doesn't make any sense, but it could definitely be scumflail. The rest of his enormous wall posts are extremely fatiguing. Of what I can get through they seem to have decent thoughts but are otherwise just a destraction/something to hide behind.

Benmage - Thought he would need some investigation, but after looking at his posts, he's seeming more town than late yesterday, I'd move him into the same spot as diddin, so...
Nacho and Lowell - Neither posting very actively, Lowell at least partly due to replacing in. The posts they do make tend to be sound and have valid logic. I'm null on each, though I like Nacho more just because I tend to have similar reads as him.

I don't explicitly like the idea of lynching someone who's on the list for replacement, but I think it will be a stretch to get them both replaced. I think we should basically treat them as if they're blantantly lurking and we should lynch in that context (ie. Lynch person A who is scummy here and here, or person B who is slightly scummy here and has lurked since).

Therefore, lynching a scummy active player is superior to lynching an inactive one. Besides, if either of them are scum/sk/etc they won't be killing/PRing in their present state.

Unvote, Vote:Tragedy

[LlamaFluff]

Cool... we can lynch either/or/both of tvell and SA again.

unvote
Vote Tvell

Yes I know its not the same as SA... I think that tvell makes more sense as scum though with the new information and who I have been seeing as possible partners to him. Would be down to lynch SA in a heartbeat still.

[DemonHybrid]

~4 out of 9 people. Of COURSE mist wouldn't be voting mist, Sens.

Fuck statistics.

[Steven Hacking]

@Sens: Do you have any information as to how a god father role would interact with your PR? I would assume that it wouldn't read as your power is of an investigative variety.

Just a thought, that perhaps 2+godfather on the mist wagon?

[Lowell]

I like 991. Let's go after one of us non-mist-voters. Even if the claim is bogus, it doesn't really matter b/c it's still plenty of worthy candidates.

unvote, vote steven

I sort of wanted to do this last time, but thought maybe I was just crazy and seeing something that wasn't there. Now I don't think so. All of steven's posts are off-putting for reasons I find difficult to explain, but it's there. Something about 1013 has this unnerving "trying to be part of the team!" feeling that has become his MO (even if, as in this case, he's openly being called out as potential scum). I think he's targetting the low-hanging fruit with tragedy and tvell, and the rest of the post is fluff designed to look like he's actively considering all options (or subtly suggesting lurker-lynches).

Then 90 mins after loving sens' plan, in 1016 he drops the casual "oh, hey, I just thought of something!" to start to undermine it-- but of course not to aggressively.

[The Fonz]

Fuck it, I've softclaimed enough times that I'm going to claim, since I'm no longer an info role.
First of all, I call your attention to the End of Day votecount from yesterday:

Vote Count 19

Mist7676 - 13 -

hiraki, SensFan, jasonT1981, The Fonz, sottyrulez, DarlaBlueEyes, LlamaFluff, KageLord, DemonHybrid, Nero Cain, Mariyta, boberz, ribwich

Not Voting Mist7676 - 11 -

tvellalott, Benmage, Wraith, Mist7676, Deer, diddin, Tragedy, Steven Hacking, Sleepless Assassin, Nachomamma8, Lowell

Now, for the claim.

I'm

Lisa Simpson, 1-shot Sensor

.
Hopefully this explains satisfactorily why I called bullshit on Mist's original "I can talk to other members of my family at Night" claim.

No, it doesn't. Because as I said to DH when she claimed non-specific Simpson, mist didn't claim that the Simpson family as a whole were a neighbor group.

Also I can talk to a Simpson in a QT at night for that night only. I hope you guys take off your votes I wanna use my power.

This implies something along the lines of mist choosing a rolename and being able to talk to the player, or choosing a player and if they're a simpson then she can talk to them. The one thing it emphatically is not saying is that other Simpsons would be aware of Homer's power before the first night had even begun.

That said, this power claim is at the correct time.

Why did you use your power on a wagon with 13 people on it -_-

At least we have a ton of confirmed townies...we just don't know who.

Pedit: He said 2 players.

This is idiotic. There's going to be some scum on most wagons. The bigger the wagon, the more chance you have of confirming several townies once the scum are dead.

Caring about your claim and having all of your ducks in a row instead of making it look like you're a noob making shit up as you go along can really help you out. It looked like she was making things up as she went along, like Ribwich said. And she picked a ridiculously popular character. And she signed up about a month ago.

Right, a ridiculously popular character, also known as a STRONG NAMECLAIM.

'Caring about your claim and having all your ducks in a row' is something I'd expect from competent town. Or competent scum. Not knowing how to claim properly is something I'd expect from incompetent town or incompetent scum. Guess what the common factor is? COMPETENCE, NOT FUCKING ALIGNMENT! Mist's was the claim of someone who doesn't know how to claim. AS ribwich said, that 'I can pick a person but not who so I don't get scum'

isn't even a coherent sentence.

Rather than asking for expl

What about that doesn't look fishy to you?

Try everything. How come at no point did anyone have the natural town reaction of 'Cop claim, better unvote?'

If she had put all of the specifics of her claim, said what her role name is AND gave her character, all in one post, I would have been much more inclined to stop and say "Hold up, don't hammer." But instead, you attack and vote Ribwich for it.

Basically, again, you're saying 'I'd have found her more town if she claimed in a competent manner.' But what on Earth from her play in the game would have given you the impression mist was competent?

That doesn't seem like you're thinking things through here, and that's why I'm voting you, for the record.

LOLirony. Maybe if certain other retarded or scummy people HAD ACTUALLY THOUGHT FOR EVEN A GODDAMN SECOND, we'd still have a cop.

Anyway, there IS noobish motivation behind doing that, but you would think that, even as a noob, mist would have had her shit straight and cared about how she worded her claim instead of pulling at AtE strings and pleading for her life every other post while giving choppy specifics that looked like she was making things up to make herself look better.

Maybe she cared, she just didn't know better. You would think that, even as a noob, mist if fakeclaiming would be trying to make it as convincing as possible, no? And I don't see this atE. The closest thing is her asking 'So when do votes come off?' I read this as an innocent, naive (and for the record, usually correct) expectation that votes will normally be removed from a claimed cop. Or 'I hope you guys unvote me so I can use my power?' That's not atE either.

There's no pulling at heartstrings, no emotive or manipulative language. How could there have been? She could barely type.

Now if you'll excuse me, I'm going to go ISO the offwagons. Oh, and dig up that game where Yos kept attacking a guy who hammered a cop in plain sight and got defended because the cop was 'just so scummy' and whaddaya know, the hammerer was scum.

[SensFan]

On my phone, so forgive the lack of quote/formatting.

Fonz, don't you see why I felt it was a little farfetched that a Cop could confirm me and get to talk to me during the same Night, given that it would mean not one, but two information roles that could share information without claiming?

[Mariyta]

Then you might wanna vote me.

Also, can town not give bad reasons for votes? Not to say that I've given bad reasons, I've given pretty good reasons. But you need rope, so it's fine. I'd just rather lynch Fonz before you.

Also, dam gurl u hype

And I'd rather lynch Hiraki before you. If I had two votes, you'd get one of them.

I've never been one for math, but I like the idea of going after the non-Mist voters. If DH's calculations are correct, we have almost a 50:50 shot.

And I still don't see how Sens role = Mist lying.

#1017 doesn't sit right with me. First off, the "Let's go after one of us non-mist-voters. Even if the claim is bogus, it doesn't really matter b/c it's still plenty of worthy candidates" reeks. First, I don't see the motivation for Sens to lie at this point. We still have a massive pool of people to narrow down. Second, it's been shown that odds are statistically better to hit scum off the wagon than on. Then his attack on Steven is weak. Steven's question is actually quite valid.
UNVOTE: Hiraki (Don't think I'll forget that you're scum)
VOTE: Lowell

[SensFan]

My role pm is phrased such that the results are guaranteed unless the mod lies outright to me. Regardless, I sent him a PM to confirm this.

[The Fonz]

On my phone, so forgive the lack of quote/formatting.

Fonz, don't you see why I felt it was a little farfetched that a Cop could confirm me and get to talk to me during the same Night, given that it would mean not one, but two information roles that could share information without claiming?

Yes, I do, which is why I don't think that's what she was actually claiming. 'I get to pick a person but not who' does not make sense. My initial reaction was that this was talking about her cop ability rather than her neighborizing- she was given the name of a protown person at random or something. Or she's able to give a rolename, and be told whether it's town or scum, but not who has it. Or perhaps the 'so I can't get mafia' part was something she assumed into her role ability, not what it actually said. It depends on what 'pick' and 'who' mean in that sentence. Gee golly, wouldn't it have been an idea to find out rather than quickhammering her?

Also, the 'share information without claiming' might have been false. When did you receive your result PM? I would have assumed the information is shared right at the end of the night to avoid that particular loophole.

Same error Nero's making with regard to me. "The way I've read this, it doesn't make any sense, so rather than assuming I've interpreted it wrong, I'll assume it's scum saying something massively outrageous."

People seem to be making all sorts of excuses and completely neglecting the fact that it is massively in scum's interest to hammer the cop. That needs to be the starting point of this discussion. Regardless of all the problems with the claim, scum who claim cop NEVER live to lylo.

[The Fonz]

And the neighbor thing could have been confirmed one way or the other that very night.

[ribwich]

I'm still pretty confident that Hiraki is scum, but there's much better odds in going after one of the non voters. I'm going to look at each one more closely first before putting in a vote.