Simpsons Mafia (Game Over)

[ribwich]

Anyone that says a player has a greater than 50% chance of being scum this early is either lying or greatly overestimating their scumfinding abilities. No matter how you look at it, there are just simply better odds of the day ending in lynched scum if we lynch somebody not on the Mistwagon.

[DemonHybrid]

And the difference between what I'm talking about and what you're talking about is a confirmed analysis vs a nonconfirmed analysis. You may be +50% sure on if someone is scum on the mistwagon, but there is a CONFIRMED ~44% chance that you'd lynch scum off the mistwagon.

[DemonHybrid]

That was towards Llama, sorry.

[SensFan]

Just realized something. If there's two scum factions, there could easily be 2 4-man teams.

[LlamaFluff]

Even with a nearly 50% chance?

I'd agree if 4-5 people were on the mist wagon.

Yes, even then. If I think that someone on the mist wagon has GREATER then a 50% chance to be scum, then its better then taking an off the wagon stab. If we are lynching off the wagon its not going to be anyone but SA or nacho at this point.

Doesn't a lynched scum appeal to you, though? Confirmed interactions and playstyle?

Maybe I'm thinking of things too literally, but I'd gladly give up my Fonz scum read for a ~44% chance at lynching a scum and building my reads off of that.

From a purely mathematical standpoint you are correct. If we knew nothing about the game and just drew numbers, drawing from the off the wagon pool would be better. However we have things that back up people being scum and town. If you insist on playing the odds, you would have to measure a scum read of those on the wagon by about 25% (assume 5 of 24 scum, and the also necessary sens-town) and the ones off by 44%, then the greatest read would be correct. This is a game off some odds, but reads are the more important part. I will follow my reads.

Im going to resheep though and

Vote Nacho

[Mariyta]

Just realized something. If there's two scum factions, there could easily be 2 4-man teams.

Which would make the odds of hitting scum

off

the wagon... 6/9?

[Consigliere]

Throw this guy in the "anti-town" bin for not even paying attention to the game.

Would you rather have me have said "cons who just replaced tvell"?

Also you should vote now, or within the next few minutes when you are caught up on the last two or so pages.

So that's a no to paying attention?

Thanks for playin'.

[LlamaFluff]

Throw this guy in the "anti-town" bin for not even paying attention to the game.

Would you rather have me have said "cons who just replaced tvell"?

Also you should vote now, or within the next few minutes when you are caught up on the last two or so pages.

So that's a no to paying attention?

Thanks for playin'.

Wait so your vote without apparently having read the game is your actual vote?

[DemonHybrid]

Just realized something. If there's two scum factions, there could easily be 2 4-man teams.

Which would mean 6 people out of 9 off the mistwagon.

Regardless of the number, even if you have the least amount of possible scum in a 24 man game, you have an immense chance of hitting scum off the wagon. Confirmed.

I understand the Mathematics vs Logic debate here, but it's so early in the game that I think people are delusional if they believe they have a definitive read that surpasses a +40% chance at lynching scum.

[DemonHybrid]

Just realized something. If there's two scum factions, there could easily be 2 4-man teams.

Which would make the odds of hitting scum

off

the wagon... 6/9?

66%. Correct.

We don't know any of that for sure yet. It would make the game a lot easier if we did.

[Wraith]

Just realized something. If there's two scum factions, there could easily be 2 4-man teams.

But there was only one nightkill. IMO there is a higher probability of a serial killer who has special kill rules or something.

[Tragedy]

6/22 scums.

If we reduce, you'd get 3/11 in a special case.

[DemonHybrid]

6 out of the total. 24. The two dead townies are an aside.

[Mariyta]

Just realized something. If there's two scum factions, there could easily be 2 4-man teams.

But there was only one nightkill. IMO there is a higher probability of a serial killer who has special kill rules or something.

There is probably a roleblocker in the game, too, and Jason has already claimed doc. But as DH said, with even a 6-man scum team, odds off the wagon are better.

[Consigliere]

Throw this guy in the "anti-town" bin for not even paying attention to the game.

Would you rather have me have said "cons who just replaced tvell"?

Also you should vote now, or within the next few minutes when you are caught up on the last two or so pages.

So that's a no to paying attention?

Thanks for playin'.

Wait so your vote without apparently having read the game is your actual vote?

I have voted AND confirmed that I still would have no problem lynching hikari since then.

Now I'm debating in my brain if sens would be a good lynch...just to prove the 2 out of 13 claim definitively and now Lisa herself admits she's got no further function...or if no counterclaim is enough.

Granted, no counterclaim is one of my golden rules....No counterclaim = No lynch.

And I'm hard-pressed to believe Lisa Simpson is a dirty character...

Thinkin' out loud now...Granted, not sure why I'm responding to you since you aren't paying attention anywho.

[SensFan]

Literally every single one of those sentences/thoughts is dumb and wrong.

[Tragedy]

6/24 scums.

If we reduce, you'd get 1/4 in this case.
However, 2 towns has died.
Therefore, 6/22 scums.
Therefore it makes 3/11 scums now with the stakes lowering.

Thanks DH

.

Also, there's probably a slight chance we have a Watcher.

[Consigliere]

Literally every single one of those sentences/thoughts is dumb and wrong.

I would normally agree...but I've actually played in a mafia where Lisa was dirty....Hardcore Simpsons fans don't trust Lisa Simpson. At least not this one. Just sayin'.

For example, if Lisa is dirty, based on your claim, you are scot-free for the rest of the game...cuz there will be no "Why didn't the mafia kill Lisa" palabra, as per your story you've shot your load...so everyone will just assume they go away from you...Very convenient.

I'm just sayin'...It's day 2...Town has some wiggle room....and way too many folks ON the mist wagon look dirty as hell to me.

[DemonHybrid]

Um, but if Mist wasn't lying and said that she cannot Neighborize Mafia but CAN neighborize family members, that would clear Sens, would it not?

[SensFan]

You're also an idiot, Tragedy. We will literally never be lynching out of the entire pool of players again, as there is not one, but two groups of lynching pools. From this point forward, there will be a conscious decision made every day on whether to lynch from on or off the D1 Mistwagon. Therefore, 3/11 is ridiculously inaccurate.

Consigliere, that's a minor reason for why one of your thoughts was unsound. There remains every other thought you wrote down in that post that are all just about as wrong as can be.

[Hiraki]

*sigh* Now I actually have to read all this. And apparently there are some claims and a replacement or 2 in there, so I can't just skim.

At the moment (before reading the last 5-8 pages), I'm cool with DH (because, last I saw, he said some odd things I'd like to explore) or Nacho (mainly because he's lurking like I am, but that's practically scum meta for him) wagon. Maybe Darla again. Not Hiraki (I somehow think him town from what I've seen today), Fonz (are you guys for real with this one?), or jason (this is not because I think he's likely town but because I really don't feel like lynching a claimed doc after we just lost a cop).

As per Fluffy's orders, I'll plant a vote (likely to change when I get back) before reading.

VOTE: Nachomamma8[/unvote]

Please explain everything that you've said in this post pronto. The DH, my part, and the Jason part.

Nero, Deer was pretty scummy and not all that active either. Not a typical scum shot. Unless scum want to mindfuck us, I say a vig shot Deer.

Eh. Disagree. He just wasn't too active.

Hiraki is ignoring my questions again

NO

I

AM

NOT.

Actually I did ask things of Mar about you, I was pressuring her many times to explain her vote and stance on you. I didn't say you were town at all day 1. In fact day 1 I had you pegged as scum also. This is it.

You may have asked a question, but then you refuted it by saying that Mariyta didn't talk about me at all. Therefore, while you did ask a question, it was not a reasonable question that could be testified. So while you're not lying 100%, you're lying 99.99%(And like everyone should obv. 99.999... = 100)

As for finding you town yesterday, that again is a flat out LIE. you will notice I call you on many scummy things as well as at the bottom.. this bit quoting right here...

That's true, I'll admit I phrased it wrong. You still defend me against Mariyta which is my point.

How can you have a scumtell on both of us, and not accuse Mariyta of bussing but not me bussing?

Guderian was EASILY the towniest of towns

Laughable. But I'm not here to talk about dead people right now.

You are doing it -wrong-. Regardless of how scummy they are.

Smart thinking. I don't really care about those people though.

Incorrect... that information is to be used as the game goes on to help get town or scum reads. If you think someone on Mist wagon is scum, that claim should NOT dissuade those thoughts at all.

That was my reasoning against it too. Not saying that Sens is scum, but I'm not going to 100% believe him yet.

[Consigliere]

Um, but if Mist wasn't lying and said that she cannot Neighborize Mafia but CAN neighborize family members, that would clear Sens, would it not?

I'm not reading anything into what that player said....Guderian to Mist was like pulling Mariano Rivera in the ninth inning of the World Series for Jaime Navarro....or trying to predict roles.

Here's what I know:

If I take sens for face value based on no counterclaim, then I'm riding it into the sunset for the game....and if Lisa is dirty, the town is sunk under that assumption as it will be mislynch after mislynch with a dead sheriff.

If I don't and go for a lynch, tomorrow I know if Lisa/Sens is telling the truth or not....and can make 100% certifiable decisions based on the unlucky 13.

[DemonHybrid]

I don't like how you're looking so hard into this.

It's giving me a headache.

Almost like....a wine hangover...

[Consigliere]

You're also an idiot, Tragedy. We will literally never be lynching out of the entire pool of players again, as there is not one, but two groups of lynching pools. From this point forward, there will be a conscious decision made every day on whether to lynch from on or off the D1 Mistwagon. Therefore, 3/11 is ridiculously inaccurate.

Consigliere, that's a minor reason for why one of your thoughts was unsound. There remains every other thought you wrote down in that post that are all just about as wrong as can be.

I'm more than happy to listen to reason...as I'd much prefer you to be town than mafia.



Side Note: Anyone else having trouble getting posts to submit?

[DemonHybrid]

Anyway, I'm joking.

Lisa MAY be scum, but there's just so much evidence against it at the moment. To be perfectly honest, regardless of whether the claim is true or not, there's enough lurky scummy people off the mistwagon that justifies the lynch.