Simpsons Mafia (Game Over)

[Consigliere]

I don't like how you're looking so hard into this.

It's giving me a headache.

Almost like....a wine hangover...

You don't like covering all bases?

[Consigliere]

Anyway, I'm joking.

Lisa MAY be scum, but there's just so much evidence against it at the moment. To be perfectly honest, regardless of whether the claim is true or not, there's enough lurky scummy people off the mistwagon that justifies the lynch.

All I'm getting at is if Lisa is dirty, the town could be legitimately sunk.

But the death of a now-admitted worthless role will give us 100% certainty in the odds.


I doubt there will be a counterclaim of Lisa/sens...It would be a STRONG move by mafia if Lisa was dirty...I know it is the way I would play it...Combining that being a dirty role with a little censor trickery when there is a LOT of heat on the mist's lynch list, especially cuz the player popped as the cop, would be epic win as it completely deflects off of all the guilty...If sens is what she claims, well, then there's no counter in that situation either, obviously....and if there is we're in the typical, we're gonna get a mafia today or tomorrow deal.

[SensFan]

I have voted AND confirmed that I still would have no problem lynching hikari since then.

Now I'm debating in my brain if sens would be a good lynch...just to prove the 2 out of 13 claim definitively and now Lisa herself admits she's got no further function...or if no counterclaim is enough.

Granted, no counterclaim is one of my golden rules....No counterclaim = No lynch.

And I'm hard-pressed to believe Lisa Simpson is a dirty character...

Thinkin' out loud now...Granted, not sure why I'm responding to you since you aren't paying attention anywho.

1) Wrong. Your vote needs to be on either someone off the Mist wagon, or else on me.
2) Wrong. You don't lynch an information role on D2 to prove their information; if you want me lynched, it needs to be because you think I'm lying
3) Wrong. Who says there's a real Sensor out there? Who says Lisa is in the game? Answer: Just my word, so requiring a counterclaim is asking to lose.
4) Wrong. Flavour!=God, first of all. Secondly, safeclaims.

[Wraith]

Gah! Stop it! SensFan is probtown and I have a town-read on Consig. Stop the infighting!

[Consigliere]

I have voted AND confirmed that I still would have no problem lynching hikari since then.

Now I'm debating in my brain if sens would be a good lynch...just to prove the 2 out of 13 claim definitively and now Lisa herself admits she's got no further function...or if no counterclaim is enough.

Granted, no counterclaim is one of my golden rules....No counterclaim = No lynch.

And I'm hard-pressed to believe Lisa Simpson is a dirty character...

Thinkin' out loud now...Granted, not sure why I'm responding to you since you aren't paying attention anywho.

1) Wrong. Your vote needs to be on either someone off the Mist wagon, or else on me.
2) Wrong. You don't lynch an information role on D2 to prove their information; if you want me lynched, it needs to be because you think I'm lying
3) Wrong. Who says there's a real Sensor out there? Who says Lisa is in the game? Answer: Just my word, so requiring a counterclaim is asking to lose.
4) Wrong. Flavour!=God, first of all. Secondly, safeclaims.

RE: #1: My vote is my own, not for you to pre-determine. I can feel just as happy lynching one of multiple characters as I've stated...and there is plenty of time for me to change my vote. I assure you that if I lynch, I mean it. Wrong or right.

RE #2: If I vote for you, it is not because I think you ARE lying...It is because I think you MAY BE lying. To claim otherwise is pretty much foolhardy, and, once again, you have pre-determined my thoughts for me. Why? I don't know.

RE #3: You may have to explain this....My understanding is that you are claiming Lisa Simpson and a sensor. So, the answer is YOU...You are saying that...unless I am misunderstood.

RE #4: I'm not gonna lie...I don't even understand the lingo yer getting at. There's a lot of shortcuts/hot phrases on this site that I do not yet have in the ol' noggin...so if you could clarify it, that would be great...because yeah, I'm obviously suspicious of you based on what I perceive to be as a large game-changing type claim.

[DemonHybrid]

Consig and Sens is town vs town. This is a ridiculous argument however.

[SensFan]

Alright, I'll re-phrase things, Consig. Of course you control your vote. But if you expect me to take anything you say seriously, you can't be voting for anyone on the Mist wagon but me, at any time today.

[Consigliere]

Alright, I'll re-phrase things, Consig. Of course you control your vote. But if you expect me to take anything you say seriously, you can't be voting for anyone on the Mist wagon but me, at any time today.

Odds and reality are two different things.

If I suspect you as potentially being a dirty Lisa Simpson AND go another route, I vote for who I feel is dirty based on their play...not potentially tainted math.

hikari has more than earned a lynch in my eyes based on his play and not one tear would be shed from my opinion. I'm more than happy to push him to a claim and see what happens there.

It's just like statistics....If the underlying data is faulty, then the statistic is moot.

[SensFan]

Right. So if you think I'm a lying scumbag, then vote me.

[Consigliere]

Right. So if you think I'm a lying scumbag, then vote me.

I will gladly vote for you if enough others are willing to do so...That is why I'm having the discussion that I am and sharing my thoughts.

BUT...If the town chooses to go another way, I am a STRONG BELIEVER in a united town in lynching...so I will assist there and push others that I believe are acting dirty to claim, and, if I don't like what I hear during that claim, potentially lynch.

My vote is on kihari at the moment....and that is because by far and large his play has been the dirtiest in my eyes. The fact that I think you may be lying does not change that...and (You'll love this) odds are that I don't garner enough interest to lynch you as no counterclaim is hard to overcome from a logical standpoint, which is a fair rebuttal from any others reading and considering what I'm saying. So long as the town sees that your play could be a mafia-clinching-victory type play if Lisa is dirty, then I've done what I can from my corner to let the town decide upon the probability of that scenario and how it should be acted upon. Like I said, I'm not sold on that character being 100% for sure clean just on the character merit...and the sensor deal is an IDEAL play the day after the cop got lynched with hardly any discussion post-claim.

[SensFan]

Alright, cool. In the interests of less spam, I'm just not going to respond to (or read, in all likelyhood) what you say from now on. Can someone else let me know if he ever starts showing sense?

[The Fonz]

lol notice that there were only 4-5 people there from claim to hammer. Anyway, this is what The Fonz was talking about earlier. Except I think he went so far as to say that the people who called for the hammer were scummy.

Two, actually. boberz and ribwich. Oh, hang on, you mean 'online' rather than 'voting.' I didn't say those calling for a hammer were scummy- it was mostly DH and Sens, and those two are both claimed Simpsons. I can see all the reason in the world for their actions, even if they look to me to be based on jumping to conclusions (again, I would expect a VI to claim idiotically).

My problem with them is more their complete refusal to recognise that despite their obvscum reads on mist- nay because of them - there remains a ton of scum motivation to quickhammer a claimed cop. Having lots of town baying for blood gives scum cover. There is just no way I'm not going to find someone who does something catastrophic for town scummy,

I'm just going to ignore DH as with Sens/Consig, because I can't think of him without my heartrate skyrocketing and feeling an overwhelming urge to punch someone, and being too angry to think straight is not conducive to good scumhunting for obvious reasons.

Nachomamma is another one I just don't see. There's a lot of tunnelling there, but that's not scummy. Tragedy just comes across so annoying that I find her hard to read. It's kinda interesting that the Hiraki wagon largely hung in there while the Kage wagon completely folded once it was passed by mist.

I get a bad vibe off Benmage that I can't really place.

Vote: Benmage

will do for now.

[Mariyta]

Hiraki makes no sense whatsoever and chooses which posts to pay attention to and which to ignore.

Tragedy should just stop talking full stop. WTH does a watcher have to do with anything at this point?

Consigliere seemed town to me, until he started being completely and totally ridiculous. What motive does Sens have to lie? Also, I don't see any possible advantage in scum being so adamant that Mist was lying, after she flipped. I don't see scum going out on a limb like Sens did with that. But even if he is scum, right now, odds are damn good that we'll hit scum off the wagon and it's a good plan to follow. This argument is ridiculous and a distraction.

Now, I'm perfectly happy w/ a Hiraki lynch if that's where everyone else wants to go. But I'm not 100% Hiraki is scum (only a cop could be 100%). So I still think it's smarter to lynch off the wagon.

[Wraith]

@Fonz: You may have a point, because I haven't seen Benmage lurk this hard since NY116.

Oh crap. That game he was scum.

[DemonHybrid]

Cry about it, Fonz.

[Hiraki]

Maritya. I'm starting to think about ignoring you, just because you won't tell me what I'm missing.

[Mariyta]

You ignore me anyway, so it would be nothing new. I would just have to pester you more.

He realizes that I'm probably scum, but sees that the non-voters have a definite possibility. Note that the town has gone from Hiraki-hate(which obv. makes no sense) to lurker hate. While I understand that because everyone has shifted, Ribwich can as well, the whole situation just looks fishy to me. More like "I can't get enough appeal on this lynch, so therefore let's try for an easier gambit." per se.

I've done the exact same thing. Though I know you're scum, I realize it's not likely enough people will agree with me today (unless you do something so overtly scummy that it cannot be denied). Statistically, it's better to go the other way. So why choose Ribwich over me? You also used "opportunity" in your argument yet again. Tsk tsk.

Now, back to Hiraki, the super-secret-only-comes-in-to-post-in-response-to-things-directed-at-him ninja... We know you thought Guiderian was scum. We know you "know" Diddin is opportunistic. What do you think about the plan to lynch people off the Mist wagon? Who would you pick to lynch?

[Hiraki]

Jason and Darla.

I already gave a case as well on Diddin.

I'll agree that I didn't answer that other question though. I haven't had enough time to answer it, for that I apologize, I'll get to it later.

[Mariyta]

Jason and Darla.

I already gave a case as well on Diddin.

I'll agree that I didn't answer that other question though. I haven't had enough time to answer it, for that I apologize, I'll get to it later.

I'm more interested in your thoughts about lynching from those on the Mist wagon versus lynching those off the wagon.

[Consigliere]

Hiraki makes no sense whatsoever and chooses which posts to pay attention to and which to ignore.

Tragedy should just stop talking full stop. WTH does a watcher have to do with anything at this point?

Consigliere seemed town to me, until he started being completely and totally ridiculous. What motive does Sens have to lie? Also, I don't see any possible advantage in scum being so adamant that Mist was lying, after she flipped. I don't see scum going out on a limb like Sens did with that.

But even if he is scum, right now, odds are damn good that we'll hit scum off the wagon and it's a good plan to follow.

This argument is ridiculous and a distraction.

Now, I'm perfectly happy w/ a Hiraki lynch if that's where everyone else wants to go. But I'm not 100% Hiraki is scum (only a cop could be 100%). So I still think it's smarter to lynch off the wagon.

I'm ridiculous...I can buy it...I've been accused of worse in mafia. Most likely Lisa is a town-sided player. It's a fair ASSumption...but just that regardless.

But why do you say the bold?

If sens is scum, then for sure it's NOT good odds that off the wagon is a good idea...cuz that's what he's asking for. Seems pretty much a given to me...but the odds are that he is town, or we have to play under the ASSumption that he is town, assuming he is never countered....so THOSE are the odds that we are playing with.


I go back now to my original hunches:

Players I would like to see lynched:

hikari
ribwich
DemonHybrid


Second tier of suspects...Folks that I would lynch with little regret, but feel less confident about:

PMS Willie
boberz


Of those, ALL FIVE OF THEM were a part of the unlucky 13...which apparently only have 2 scum among them at face value based on what sens provides.

That to me triggers a flag...Granted, I could just suck at reads...Wouldn't be the first time...but 5/5 town scum reads? That is pretty long odds to me...so maybe I'm just fishing for reasoning...cuz I would bet that there's 2 scum in them there 5 players...

So do I go with my gut and look at it as 2/5 odds? Or go the other way with (most likely) 3-4 out of 9 odds?

___


To narrow down more, is it possible for a sensor to miscalculate? IE: A role is not detectable by a sensor or gives false reads? I'm new to this sensor thing....so if there's counters, I want to consider that possibility as well.

[Mariyta]

Hiraki makes no sense whatsoever and chooses which posts to pay attention to and which to ignore.

Tragedy should just stop talking full stop. WTH does a watcher have to do with anything at this point?

Consigliere seemed town to me, until he started being completely and totally ridiculous. What motive does Sens have to lie? Also, I don't see any possible advantage in scum being so adamant that Mist was lying, after she flipped. I don't see scum going out on a limb like Sens did with that.

But even if he is scum, right now, odds are damn good that we'll hit scum off the wagon and it's a good plan to follow.

This argument is ridiculous and a distraction.

Now, I'm perfectly happy w/ a Hiraki lynch if that's where everyone else wants to go. But I'm not 100% Hiraki is scum (only a cop could be 100%). So I still think it's smarter to lynch off the wagon.

I'm ridiculous...I can buy it...I've been accused of worse in mafia. Most likely Lisa is a town-sided player. It's a fair ASSumption...but just that regardless.

But why do you say the bold?

If sens is scum, then for sure it's NOT good odds that off the wagon is a good idea...cuz that's what he's asking for. Seems pretty much a given to me...but the odds are that he is town, or we have to play under the ASSumption that he is town, assuming he is never countered....so THOSE are the odds that we are playing with.

I don't believe he's scum, so I guess I was just throwing the "If he's scum" caveat in there to appease those who would go "But what

if

...". If he's scum, he's playing a damn good game and we're no closer to deciding on a lynch than we were before he claimed. I believe him, though, and think it's a good plan.

To narrow down more, is it possible for a sensor to miscalculate? IE: A role is not detectable by a sensor or gives false reads? I'm new to this sensor thing....so if there's counters, I want to consider that possibility as well.

Sens addressed this, I think. I'm pretty sure he said that he will get the true number, not a false read.

[Consigliere]

Hiraki makes no sense whatsoever and chooses which posts to pay attention to and which to ignore.

Tragedy should just stop talking full stop. WTH does a watcher have to do with anything at this point?

Consigliere seemed town to me, until he started being completely and totally ridiculous. What motive does Sens have to lie? Also, I don't see any possible advantage in scum being so adamant that Mist was lying, after she flipped. I don't see scum going out on a limb like Sens did with that.

But even if he is scum, right now, odds are damn good that we'll hit scum off the wagon and it's a good plan to follow.

This argument is ridiculous and a distraction.

Now, I'm perfectly happy w/ a Hiraki lynch if that's where everyone else wants to go. But I'm not 100% Hiraki is scum (only a cop could be 100%). So I still think it's smarter to lynch off the wagon.

I'm ridiculous...I can buy it...I've been accused of worse in mafia. Most likely Lisa is a town-sided player. It's a fair ASSumption...but just that regardless.

But why do you say the bold?

If sens is scum, then for sure it's NOT good odds that off the wagon is a good idea...cuz that's what he's asking for. Seems pretty much a given to me...but the odds are that he is town, or we have to play under the ASSumption that he is town, assuming he is never countered....so THOSE are the odds that we are playing with.

I don't believe he's scum, so I guess I was just throwing the "If he's scum" caveat in there to appease those who would go "But what

if

...". If he's scum, he's playing a damn good game and we're no closer to deciding on a lynch than we were before he claimed. I believe him, though, and think it's a good plan.

To narrow down more, is it possible for a sensor to miscalculate? IE: A role is not detectable by a sensor or gives false reads? I'm new to this sensor thing....so if there's counters, I want to consider that possibility as well.

Sens addressed this, I think. I'm pretty sure he said that he will get the true number, not a false read.

He will get a "true number" based upon what he knows...What I'm asking is if there are roles out there that have attached to them the ability to give the sensor a false read on his "true number"....IE: Asking an insane cop for their investigation results is foolhardy. (Wiggum was a backwards cop in a Simpsons mafia I've played...I think the mod made his first investigation false and every one thereafter the investigation result of the prior night...SO EVIL)

[Consigliere]

Maybe we should just take a poll...

Who wants to lynch inside the list that voted for mist/guderian?

Who wants to lynch outside said list?

Put me on record for the former if I have my choice, based on my reads...at least for tonight....and my vote obviously thus far reflects that. If a good majority of the town feels differently, then I'll start looking for a top suspect outside of that list.

[SensFan]

He will get a "true number" based upon what he knows...What I'm asking is if there are roles out there that have attached to them the ability to give the sensor a false read on his "true number"....IE: Asking an insane cop for their investigation results is foolhardy. (Wiggum was a backwards cop in a Simpsons mafia I've played...I think the mod made his first investigation false and every one thereafter the investigation result of the prior night...SO EVIL)

Read the goddamn thread. There was a significant series of posts about this.

[Consigliere]

He will get a "true number" based upon what he knows...What I'm asking is if there are roles out there that have attached to them the ability to give the sensor a false read on his "true number"....IE: Asking an insane cop for their investigation results is foolhardy. (Wiggum was a backwards cop in a Simpsons mafia I've played...I think the mod made his first investigation false and every one thereafter the investigation result of the prior night...SO EVIL)

Read the goddamn thread. There was a significant series of posts about this.

Just caught it in #1046.

Hmph....Yeah...Even moreso my gut wants to go in the group now.