Stars Aligned III - The Tenth Day

[Iecerint]

Benmage and Furco were the two really obvious non-cult players when I did my readthrough IIRC. Benmage scum would mean that he set-up all that stalking business D1, for example. So, I'm not "sucking up" to Benmage -- or, at least, not in a new and exciting way. I've thought Benmage was town all game.

There's no reason to gambit someone into looking town when they already look town while sacrificing a strong player. That's why the SX thing is unlikely to have been fake. I understand that this doesn't apply AS MUCH if you don't think Benmage is obvtown, but you still have to explain away why Lord-of-the-scumteam SX would let his team set-up him for the sake of BENMAGE. The insanities is one thing, though. How did he have 4 at that point, anyway? [EDIT: Looks like he had to've spammed Craft Fetishx3.] Anyway, could be a sign of SX's overconfidence.

[VP Baltar]

Why is SpyreX lord of the scumteam? I don't get that. There are plenty of strong players left in the game, a number of which could be scum. Plus, SpyreX was getting heat early on from players like Plum, so who is to say he was even planning on making endgame. Hypothetically speaking, if Benmage and Spy were on the same team at that point, Ben was in a much better 'town read' position to shoot endgame over Spy.

[Benmage]

Vpb didnt you just call me town? Why are you aguing against it so hard?

LOOK EVERYONE WE RAN OUT OF DAYS TO KILL TOWN TO CONFIRM TOWN, SO I CANT BE KILLED, NOR CAN XVART BY MURDER. WE CAN STILL AFFORD TRIGLAV TO KILL KUNK BUT OBVIOUSLY NOT BOTH....WHO WOULD RATHER SEE ME DEAD OVER KUNK?????????????

WORSE CASE SCENARIO DICTATES OUR ACTIONS AT THE MOMENT. IF WE DO MISLYNCH TRILO AND CANT KILL KUNK AND RITUAL GOES THROUGH WE ARE 6-4 AND STILL ALIVE.

NOW IF ALL THE AFOREMENTIONED HAPPENED AND ICE KILLED ME WE'D BE 5-4 AND XVART COULD BE SPEED LYNCHED DUE TO SUICIDE ...I.E. GG.


ANY MORE QUESTIONS???

[VP Baltar]

I did call you town and I believe that. That doesn't mean it's outside the realm of possibility that you're not. Frankly, too many towns get lazy and play the last couple days before lylo on assumptions and then they go 'oh shi-' when it does become lylo and all previous assumptions have been proven incorrect. Therefore, it is a worthwhile discussion to at least partake in, even if nothing comes of it at the moment. I don't like the fact that most of your posts today have been talking about how killing you is dire straits. I don't see why you were advocating people stalking you yesterday if that was how you felt.

[Nicodemus]

My thoughts on how today/tonight should play out:

Currently it's 8-4. If we lynch kunk (who let's face it is basically guaranteed cult at this point, he hasn't even posted today) it will be 8-3. This would allow Iec to murder Bentown tonight, confirm himself, and with the cult kill we would be at 6-3 tomorrow. 5 to lynch, so suicidal testing could go down tomorrow before we pick our actual lynch.

But let's say by some miracle kunk is town. This would mean it would be 7-4 going into night, and with an Iec murder of Bentown and a cult kill it would be 5-4, and cult quicklynch xvart for the win.

So, basically we can bet the game on kunkscum, and get confirmed Iec tonight, as well as eliminating one of the Suicides. We all want kunk dead anyway, so this isn't really an issue, and I'd like to have more people confirmed town. The other option would be to let Triglav attempt to murder kunk tonight, but this doesn't really do a whole lot for me. I'd much prefer kill the scum sooner rather than later and be done with it.

Also, I think we really do need to test for suicidal today. As people have said, we're almost getting too close for comfort if we wait until tomorrow, so let's just get it over with. And we need to agree before we start that if cult DOES quicklynch, those who have successful stalks will NOT murder, so that we still have numbers tomorrow.

Also also @Trilo: Why is TNM on your scum list?

[Trilobite]

TNM could still be scum, though I think it's only possible if VP is as well. (He looks scummier than VP, but I don't think we took the setup mechanics into account when we made the list.)

I'd revise them both to neutral leaning town.

[Iecerint]

@ VP --> To answer your question -- I think I can go through with it if we lynch scum, but not if we don't.

I'm basing my feelings about SX on my own experience having been scum with SX and people's past comments about being scum with SX.

If they DID want to do that with SX, I think they'd choose someone who was more middle-of-the-road at the time (like Andy) rather than someone who looked obvtown to give town points to.

[VP Baltar]

Yeah, obviously if we don't lynch scum today, then you murdering ben is bad.

Also, I don't think Spy looked obv. town at all really, but ok.

[Benmage]

We're covering our asses in worse case scenario by only having triglav shoot tonight. We're lynching trilo because it is likely he'll flip cult, and the upside of lynching a cult and nking a cult is too great to pass up. I think it quite likely scum do not have a Res kit and triglavs shot works.


I wanted me dead in the past to yes confirm townies without doubt and to get rid of me because of my suicide insanity but I wasn't following the math close enough and we can no longer afford to do so.

Noone of a sane mind thinks I'm anything but town so there's no point in killing me, drop the issue.

[Iecerint]

It's not that SX looked obvtown. It's that SX is a player who leads the teams he's a member of, and I don't think he would engineer that kind of a move on himself. He has too much confidence in his abilities.

Also, I forgot about the delayed flip. So it's probably right out. The only reason to go through with it is to confirm me, but it may not be worth the cost.

[VasudeVa]

Can people remind me why Benmage is Town again? >.>. I've already lost my bearings on this game about a month ago.

[VP Baltar]

He attempted to murder Spyrex way back when.

[VP Baltar]

Spy, can you give me the Trilo case in a short form because I don't get it very well. I understand some of the more recent points you've been making, but I really am not sold on that over someone like Nacho if we are going to leave Triglav to murder kunk tonight.

[VP Baltar]

EBWOP...Ben

You must have been channeling the cult there.

[Iecerint]

He also claimed a bunch of anti-town stalks early game, which MAY have been cover-ups for insanities, but it's unlikely IMO because town could have co-opted matters and exposed him (or at least forced stalk to actively frame him).

If BM is cult, he has been playing a dangerous risk/reward game all game.

[totallynotmafia]

Hopefully we'll end up lynching scum in the suicidal testing anyway. Going to bed now but if nobody's started the testing before I get up tomorrow I'll kick it off.

[Triglav]

So as we understand the plan is to lynch kunk/Tri/Nacho.
If we do not lynch kunk I stab kunk to death.
If we do lynch kunk then maybe Benny is stabbed to death?
Suicidal testing today and if someone is suicided other than the above three then nobody murders?

Does that flow with everyone else's understanding of the shape of the world?

[Triglav]

Triglav misses Seacore and hates everyone else.

[VP Baltar]

^oh hai lazy scum

[Triglav]

^Oh hai non-lazy guy who can't even respond to question on table.

Wait, what point are you making?

[Feysal]

I replaced into another game during the weekend, and while I was getting up to speed in that game, I fell behind in other games, including here. I'm now caught up. We seem to have gotten all claims, except from kunkstar7. His silence looks quite damning, and the only question now is whether we lynch him or let Triglav murder him, and lynch someone else.

I see Trilobite brought up their old case on me of voting Baby Spice without presenting a case. My defense is the same as it was then: check the time I submitted that post. It was at 6:06 AM my time. I had stayed up all night reading and writing cases on three players, only to lose faith in all three. I liked the Baby Spice case from the previous day better, so I voted her instead and went to sleep. I was not going to spend another two hours researching and writing out a fourth case at that time, but I did so later. I knew the case was there, even without me spelling it out.

The major development seems to be that we're running out of townies, and should not follow through on more murders, unless we're reasonably certain they're on cult. So, no murdering either Benmage or xvart. Have to agree, the numbers don't lie.

Lets also hear who people think the remaining 4 scum are. You may of course list kunkstar.

kunkstar7

No further explanation necessary I hope?

VP Baltar

I simply don't see a cult motivation to resuscitate him, unless he is cult.

Nachomamma8

Pretty much the same reasons as before, plus he seems to be lurking, though to be honest I could spend more time in this game myself.

After these three, I'm torn between Triglav and Trilobite. Triglav looks more likely town now after his successful stalk, but since it is on kunkstar7, I have to wonder if it is cult on cult. The cult may have a res kit left too, so they could possibly even frame Triglav by using it. It is not very likely though, after the cult spent two res kits to resuscitate Andrius and VP Baltar. They could've laundered by now, but they can't have replaced their res kits yet. Letting Triglav go through with his murder could potentially clear him, but then we'd have to leave kunkstar7 alive today.

For the record, I'm now inclined to believe totallynotmafia is town, even in the event that VP Baltar indeed is cult. When I communed him he had no insanities, and I think that if the cult had someone with no insanities at that point, it would've been someone who looked more town. Also, when he stalked VP Baltar, he fought tooth and nail against revealing his target, and until that point VP Baltar had been resuscitated fairly regularly. If he did not reveal his target and pretended to have failed to murder a fellow cultist, anyone who resuscitated VP Baltar and did not get bloody when he was supposed to murder him could've exposed him. It would've been a very bad plot for cult to try, therefore I think he really is town.

[VP Baltar]

^Oh hai non-lazy guy who can't even respond to question on table.

Wait, what point are you making?

You had a question to me or were asking me about the night actions stuff?

[Triglav]

@VP

We asked a question in general to make sure we understood the plan moving forward of stalks/lynches/suicidal testing. (something we suspect is important that everyone understands and is on the same page, duuuur)
After a few hours with no responses I bemoaned the loss of Seacore. (who would have answered us)

You then claimed we were lazy scum.
We became petulant.
Now we are here. How are things for you?
We didn't think the logic flow was that complicated - if we are lazy scum you could at least do town a favor and answer us so we don't have an excuse later to mess up our night actions 'accidentally'.
Not rocket science.

[VP Baltar]

That's basically my understanding of the plan other than the suicidal thing. Ben and someone else were chit chatting about that earlier, but I wasn't paying that close of attention to it. I'm not sure if it's happening or not.

So,

We lynch and if that person is not Kunk you follow through with the murder. If we lynch kunk and he flips scum, then Iec murders Benmage. If we lynch a townie today, then Benmage is not murdered, but kunk should still probably be murdered.

Mod, can we get a prod on kunkstar if one has not already been sent, please

[Benmage]

Triglav you are shooting Kunkstar

, we aren't lynching him today.