Stars Aligned III - The Tenth Day

[VP Baltar]

Well, I mean, I realize it's kind of pointless but I like to try and not let the town go down stupid paths if i can. I am trying to get Vas to see that his thought process is flawed and can lead to trouble if he's not careful, but he is being stubborn and digging his heels in. Additionally, it's at least something to talk about since more than half the player list isn't really doing much for being this close to deadline.

When I say Vas is a VI, that means I think he's stupid town.

[VasudeVa]

Weellp, considering I'm attacking

you

because I find you suspicious, I see no reason why I should take your 'advice' with a grain of salt.

Trilo, read on VP. Also, what do you think of the sudden support for his lynch?

PS. I'm getting sleepy, but I'm paranoid I'd wake up to a no lynch tomorrow. >.>.

[VasudeVa]

What time is it there on the other side of the world btw? Is there even enough time to get seven votes on someone? >.>

[Trilobite]

It's noon here.

[Trilobite]

Around noonish anyway.

[VasudeVa]

Ahh, it'll be around 6pm-10pm ish by deadline. My No-lynch paranoia is gone now.

I'll try to wake up before deadline. (If I don't, c'est la vie.).

[Trilobite]

We're leaning cult on VP. TNM pretty much hit the nail on the head about the VP rezz and it has been making us uneasy for awhile now. There are times I really want to believe VP is town but PoE combined with the rezz makes it hard to swallow.

As for his wagon, I really wish it was a day earlier, but it's getting down to the crunch. Kunkcult and FeysalCult make more sense and are much more likely in our opinion. If it comes down to it we would support a VP lynch

~Sotty

[VP Baltar]

You guys are seriously going to lynch me over an obv cult frame job?

[Benmage]

Vas guaranteed scum is better than a coinflip.

Trilo reseed xvart!!!!!!! For fucks sake.

I am baffled about that.

[Nicodemus]

Vote: Kunkstar

Unofficial votecount as of this post:

VP Baltar - 3

(totallynotmafia, xvart, VasudeVa)

Trilobite - 2

(Triglav, Benmage)

Kunkstar7 - 2

(Trilobite, Nicodemus)

Feysal - 1

(Nacho)

Nachomamma8 - 1

(VP Baltar)

I think we can all agree that Kunk is cult. I just don't want to leave scum alive for tomorrow, which I think is fairly likely if we don't lynch him today.

I can see VPscum - I've had my suspicions since literally his first post - but I'd rather not take that chance now when we have all-but-confirmed-kunkscum still alive and kicking.

Nacho/Feysal: Not sure on this. I'd like Nacho to answer my questions in 5087/5089 before I make a decision.

@Benmage: Sometimes people make stupid decisions. Lord knows I've made my share this game. The point is, Trilobite is not the most obvious scum - kunk is. I think the benefits of possibly confirmed town Triglav are far outweighed by a confirmed dead-and-scum kunk at this point, and this is a lynch that I know we can get by deadline.

[Iecerint]

When did cult rez VP? That isn't familiar.

I would be OK with supporting VPlynch. This Nacho/Feysal dichotomy SUDDENLY BEING PICKED UP NOW is very weird. I wanted it ages ago, and it's not like any new evidence supporting it has come up. I agree with xvart about the possible motivations for VP supporting it while indicating that it might be flawed.

I also don't like VP's explanation for NOT lynching kunk. I have yet to receive a good explanation (meaning, a formal one) for why it must be or is likely to be true.

I think VP and Kunk are likely cult together.

Vote: kunkstar

for now, because he's behind and scum.

If someone could remind me of when cult resurrected VP, that would help me switch to him.

[Nicodemus]

The night that TNM murdered him, which was Night 6 going into Day 7.

[Triglav]

Why is everyone who was all super excited about "coin flip is more certain" suddenly leaping on VP and avoiding the elephant in the room that is kunk?
VV - in the above sentence 'everyone' is 'you'.
We feel lost - please show us map.

[Iecerint]

VV is scummy, too.

Thanks, Nicky. Why did TNM target him originally...? That's the weirder part. Not that it's really very scummy to murder someone, though.

I JUST GOT THAT VP IS A BATTLESTAR REFERENCE. WHOA WHOA I AM SLOW.

[VP Baltar]

The cult obviously rezzed me because then they could frame TNM, myself or both of us with a single rezz kit. This isn't rocket science. What I think shows that this is the plan is that no one has really said shit-all about me being rezzed until just now and suddenly I am the coolest wagon in town. Color me unsurprised.

[Trilobite]

Vote for Kunk, make the obvscum lynch happen.

[VP Baltar]

Obviously I prefer a kunk lynch to my own, but I still think a nacho lynch and finding out Triglav's alignment from his claimed stalk is the optimal route for night actions. There is still plenty of time to lynch Nacho if the people on my wagon stop derping about.

[Iecerint]

I'd totally forgotten about the rezzing. I think bothering to frame you seems silly, though. They pick up free blood and keep a town alive to avoid clearing someone. Possible, but the WIFOM choice.

It's true that it became a hot commodity recently. By bet is that it has to do with the juxtaposition of your odd take on kunk and YOUR sudden Feysal/Nacho dichotomy allegiance.

[Iecerint]

Why is Nacho is more likely scum than Feysal?

[VP Baltar]

Bothering to frame a highly regarded town is strange to you? Seems to me like that's a very good play by a scum team if they had a night of actions where they weren't worried about getting stalked. Look at how many fetishes have been passed this game. You don't think some of those were meant to frame people?

My take on kunk is not strange at all. It is the best solution to Triglav being the only person to claim a stalk. You either get a confirmed town or a second scum out of the deal. Seems pretty great to me if you're town and trying to win this game...or are you worried you'll have to deal with a confirmed town Triglav and you'd rather cut loose a deadweight kunk at this point?

I've already explained why I think Nacho is more likely to be scum than Feysal. Much like Trilo, I'm getting tired of repeating myself.

[Trilobite]

Obviously I prefer a kunk lynch to my own, but I still think a nacho lynch and finding out Triglav's alignment from his claimed stalk is the optimal route for night actions. There is still plenty of time to lynch Nacho if the people on my wagon stop derping about.

I think a Kunk lynch is superior to all this as it's banking on a particular night outcome.

If Nacho is a mislynch (or Feysal) we're faced with a situation where 4 cult go through night and plan misdeeds, and if a Kunk kill fails, which I'm suspecting will be what is going to happen, then we have to waste time lynching Kunk even more in the hole than we are now, and it tells us nothing more about triglav than it did before.

Besides, Triglav can stalk again. (Like stalking Nacho if you're big on him being a scum flip.)

I think the benefits of eliminating Kunk now outweigh the potential (and IMO unlikely with regards to night) outcomes of lynching someone else.

- Zach

[Iecerint]

1. I think your assumption that scum lack rez kits is not well-demonstrated. They just had to have anyone clean other than kunk grab one last night.
2. I'm not comfortable with your assumption that Nachoscum>Feysalscum.

Together, I am not comfortable with the benefits you claim from not lynching kunk, and I am not secure about the results of lynching Nacho.

[VP Baltar]

I can't prove whether they have rezz kits or not, but if Vas actually rezzed seacore that means that they used the greater ritual, which means that 3/4 cultists got bloody last night. It is possible that the other cultist was already clean and could have picked up a rezz kit or something, but I just really don't believe it. The reason I'm willing to gamble is that I consider kunk in the bag and I just think the odds of them having kits are low. I can't prove it (or maybe if I look back closer at night actions I can...) but mafia is a game of playing the odds. Sometimes you have to take bigger risks to get bigger rewards.

Re: Nacho over feysal...well you don't have to believe me, I'm just telling you how i see it with that one.

[Iecerint]

1. It could also mean that Seacore rezzed someone last night. They did not necessarily greater ritual.
2. Cult can *choose* who participates in the ritual. It is *not* surprising that they would keep someone holding a rez kit for just such an eventuality, especially since presumably some of them are on the stalk list (even *if* they used GR).

In fact, I'd argue that the *real* odds you should play are the odds that kunk is the one holding the rez kit. If he is (1/4 or however many are left), it's OK to not lynch him. If someone else has the rez kit AND we don't lynch that person, we should lynch em. I think it's not likely that cult didn't plan on holding rez kits ahead of time.

I understand that your position is consistent with your stated beliefs, but I do not think that your beliefs are rational. Whether that is because you are scum or I am missing things or you are, I'm not sure.

[VP Baltar]

Vas said he kit worked, didn't he? That means that they had to greater ritual.