Stars Aligned III - The Tenth Day

[Trilobite]

1. It could also mean that Seacore rezzed someone last night. They did not necessarily greater ritual.

Also, if you're cult with kunk, corpse dust.

[Trilobite]

The corpse dust point doesn't matter to you from your perspective, but the res point, I don't know why you're ignoring that possibility.

[VP Baltar]

I'm not saying it's not a possibility...I said I think it's unlikely. I acknowledge that it could happen, but I just feel like since I was setup-rezzed the other day that the cult can't really be harboring many, if any, rezz kits at this point...particularly in conjunction with them greater ritualing.

[Trilobite]

Hmmm, based on my understanding of how the res works, Vas wouldn't be bloody if Seacore ressed? (It's worded to say that the person targeting you will not be informed of failure if you res)

[Iecerint]

None of it really matters.

1. If cult are on the stalk list, cult wants handy res kis.
2. Cult will seek res kits OR cult will have res holders not participate in R/GR.

The only caveat is if kunk is the kit holder, but I don't think we have any reason to believe that one way or another.

[VP Baltar]

If you successfully protect them, you become Bloody,

Vas, did you become bloody when you protected Seacore?

[Trilobite]

According to his CD8 claim he did.

[VP Baltar]

There you go, greater ritual was used as I was saying. If you believe Vas that is.

[Trilobite]

I'm still not convinced that cult planned so poorly to not have a res kit handy.

In fact the situation you're arguing makes it harder for me to accept the idea that your res was the cult setting you up.

[VP Baltar]

If you think I would risk my neck for an essentially confirmed scum-kunk, then you're crazy. We lost SA II because people were all up in arms about lynching scummy furcolow instead of letting him follow through on a claimed stalk on semioldguy. That's a perfect example of why you need to optimize actions and let people kill who they say they are going to kill. Everyone in that endgame said it was too risky to let furc live and kill SOG and look what happened. It's not a perfect analogy I realize, but at some point you have to take risks to better your position in this game. We are at a point where we can completely tip this thing in our favor.

[Trilobite]

Ok, what happens if Kunk doesn't die? Is Triglav cult then?

[VP Baltar]

I would think it's highly likely that Triglav is cult, yes. I would be for lynching kunk followed by Triglav in that case.

[Trilobite]

My problem is that situation is almost certainly going to result in a res claim.

And my problem is that could be exactly what happened, or a cult fake claim.

[Trilobite]

Besides, if Triglav is town, I'd rather not waste town kills on obv scum. I'd rather he stalks someone else.

[Nicodemus]

^that doesn't make any sense.

[Trilobite]

Investigators only get one kill, and then they are murderers.

[VP Baltar]

But do you think the town is going to have the numbers to be murdering in two days? I should crunch those numbers to see where we're at. If it's ok to murder on Day 10 without auto losing, then it may be acceptable to let Triglav restalk.

[VP Baltar]

Also, Nico is kind of right...you're risking more by having Triglav potentially murder a town instead of cult.

[Trilobite]

Well think of it this way, he could stalk one of nacho/feysal and we could lynch the other tomorrow.

All this for the price of once dead kunkstar.

[VP Baltar]

OK 8/4 now

Lynch Kunk makes it 8/3

Scum NK makes it 7/3 with Triglav stalking someone

Mislynch makes it 6/3 going into night

scum NK makes it 5/3 and then if Triglav kills and hits town it's 4/3

If the scum manage to keep one of the suicidal players alive, that's game.

Therfore, I still think Triglav should kill kunk tonight.

[Trilobite]

Well, the ship's sailed on dealing with the suicidal players IMO.

[VP Baltar]

Yes, I agree. This is why I am trying to get confirmed players in this game. Knowing Triglav, Benmage, xvart are confirmed town makes a very solid ring that the scum either have to kill out of or get PoE'd from in lylo.

I feel like I am the only person in this game that is thinking about the long run victory and everyone else is just jumping at the latest shadows. It's very frustrating.

[Iecerint]

If Nacho and Feysal are both town (the WCS you use in your long run victory above), it's not any different.

8/4 now
lynch kunk 8/3
scumkill 7/3
mislynch 6/3
mismurder 5/3
scumkill 4/3

What you're really arguing is that it is bad if Nacho and Feysal are both town.

[totallynotmafia]

Ok, what's more likely:

1) VP is town. That means cult used a rez kit to keep a town member with almost no suspicion on them alive in the game in order to frame him and then didn't push for his lynch at all (It didn't frame me at all because I'm only cult if VP is, so nobody is going to lynch me before him).

2) VP is cult. Cult used a rez kit to save their strongest player. They also allowed cultist Andrius who had much more suspicion on him to become confirmed cult to guarantee that VP would not be lynched the next day, hopefully buying enough time until the matter was forgotten.

So, everybody, which makes more sense? If you think 2), you should be voting for VP.

[VP Baltar]

No, that's not what I'm arguing at all. I'm probably done explaining things for the day because now I'm just getting annoyed. Figure it out yourself or maybe I'll do it tomorrow.