American Gods Mafia - Game over

[Ythill]

Some reads solidified, nothing ground-breaking.

I'm sure Ythill is aware that switching his vote can change the momentum of a wagon.

Of course I am. That's why I mentioned the lack of a push on Wrath. LMP makes a good point about game-state though.

@Ythill: Quit misrepping me.

If you think I'm being dishonest, why did you unlecet Seacore? You think I'm playing dirty but you gave me what I was asking for.

You think WC is plainly superior to Ghostlin? Explain why.

I don't. He has pulled ahead a little bit, but that could be because 00iC isn't posting. Frankly, I think they're both scum. If people want to lynch 00iC they should get on. I'd rather hang back with the hammer.

@Seacore:

Is the sequence below just skimming + crazy coincidence or did I catch you in a pointless lie?

Saint however, should not be in the second category and I'd be horribly insulted if he was elected instead of me.

Meh. Don't sell Furc too short. He's no Glork but he's getting better. In the realm of misguided hunters, humble > hubris.

You're not in the same category as, lets say, Furc, who is a player who is terrible...

I totally missed that Saint was Furc.

Mind you, multiple people have been stating that Saint = Furc since the RVS.

Thing is, this jumps out at me but I can't think of

any

scum motivation for this if it is a lie. I'm going to log it as skimming. I'd like to read thoughts about this sequence from people who have Seacore on their suspect lists.

[Seacore]

Mostly skimming. In 619 I was just bitching about furc without knowing he was in the game, he's my go to VI for examples of terribad. I thought it might be the case for others too when I was reading about furc.

[A Gaggle of Geese]

I can confirm that seacore feels that way at least.

[AGar]

We need a flip, I'm with that.

@Ythill

In 625, what was the point of bringing up those Seacore quotes and asking his intentions if you just thought it was skimming in the first place?

[A Gaggle of Geese]

oh hey look, MoI flipped scum in aSoS.
The only time chesskid was "trolling" MoI by calling everything he did scum.

*gasp*
Can it be, that CK can read MoI really easily?

[farside22]

-Farside then challenges him on OGML and he admits he hadn't really noticed what OGML was posting at all before that point; fine, but why the eagerness to back the wagon if he's not your top lynch choice? He also says that SGR doesn't apply scumtells evenly to people, which is incredibly hypocritical in a post where he admits he barely noticed what OGML had posted for most of the game, and then later indicated that OGML had done some of the things he voted Tasky for, like sheeping wagons with no reason.

This was my biggest problem with Ghost.
Remember the theory that Agar talked about bw theory. And ghost unelects ythill because he didn't vote his #1 suspect to joining the OMGL vote with very weak reason's. It was completely against everything he had been about this game.

@WC: These are 2 examples of your reads. I didn't want to add all the ones that made me twitch:

18. Locke Lamora: Seemed too interested in pushing a lynch based on my schedule announcement early on, but later seems to make a good point against SGR's election of Ythill. Overall he seems to be putting effort into scum-hunting. I have a no read on him becuase his concern about my schedule comment is reaching a bit, but he seems to have good points against SGR.

7. Ghostlin: Obviously didn't get my nerd joke, sarcasm is hard on the internet. So after I read his ISO, I had to go back and look at the cases being made on him because nothing really jumped out at me. I see Ythill put him at the top of his scumlist, but I see no explanation as to why. When pried further Ythill mentions Too Helpfull in #22 (I don't get this impression at all), Skimming and cognative dissonance in #43 (I do see some evidence of that and I think SGR and Seacore touch on that too) and populist in #76 (I have no clue what that term means in Mafia). Overall I don't get scum-read on Ghost.

Both are I get this but still read town. In fact I think I found 4 or 5 post where your reads where feels town, but post. I would like to know what you think of LL, Ghost, Llama and Seacore.

@MOI: You asked me my thoughts on KK. In short I didn't like his post. I'm still doing my full read of the game, but I read that and something didn't feel/look can't explain with rereading kind of thing to it.

@KK: Have you played with morph before? If so what was your read of his play this game? Yes I'm having you analysis a player you replaced.

[Jahudo]

”Snow. High in the atmosphere, perfect, tiny crystals that form about a minute piece of dust, each a lacelike work of fractal art. And the snow crystals clump together into flakes as they fall, covering Chicago in their white plenty, inch upon inch.”

Lynch Vote Count

OhGodMyLife (5) – MagnaofIllusion, WrathChild, SGRaaize, Saint, Apokalyptika
Nexus (4) – Locke Lamora, farside22, A Gaggle of Geese, AGar
00iCon (4) – LynchMePls, OhGodMyLife, Seacore, Kublai Khan
WrathChild (2) – Ythill, Llamafluff
SGRaaize (1) –Nexus
AGar (1) – vezokpiraka

Not Voting (1):

00iCon

With 18 alive, it takes 10 votes to lynch.

--------------

Backstage Vote Count:

Top Four Players Go Backstage

Farside22 (9) – farside22, Seacore, SGRaaize, Ythill, Apokalyptika, Locke Lamora, MagnaofIllusion, LynchMePls, Kublai Khan
Ythill (9) – Llamafluff, Seacore, Agar, SGRaaize, Vezokpiraka, Apokalyptika, Nexus, LynchMePls, OhGodMyLife
LynchMePls (9) – Ythill, LynchMePls, Llamafluff, MagnaofIllusion, Apokalyptika, Kublai Khan, Locke Lamora, A Gaggle of Geese, OhGodMyLife
A Gaggle of Geese (7) – Vezokpiraka, WrathChild, AGar, Locke Lamora, Nexus, Ythill, A Gaggle of Geese
---
Seacore (4) – Seacore, Vezokpiraka, SGRaaize, Nexus
Locke Lamora (4) – farside22, Saint, Kublai Khan, OhGodMyLife
Llamafluff (2) – Llamafluff, Saint
MagnaofIllusion (2) – MagnaofIllusion, Saint
00iCon (1) – A Gaggle of Geese
Saint (1) – WrathChild

Not Voting (6):

00iCon x3, farside22 x1, AGar x1, WrathChild x1

Today's deadline is March 19 at 6:00 PM EST

[LimMePls]

oh hey look, MoI flipped scum in aSoS.
The only time chesskid was "trolling" MoI by calling everything he did scum.

*gasp*
Can it be, that CK can read MoI really easily?

1) ongoing games, you know better, blah blah blah.
2) For every example there is probably a counter example. In this case, I know there is:
http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 23&t=15407
Town-CK massively misreads Town-MOI.

[A Gaggle of Geese]

That's not the same at all.
That's not a day 1 100% sure he's scum read, that's a day 3 PoE read.
I've gunned for MoI/had this wonderful gut 100% scumread on him twice. I'm two for two.

I don't have that read here, but yes, I can read MoI incredibly easily, and he tries to discredit it because he scared.

[MagnaofIllusion]

That's not a day 1 100% sure he's scum read, that's a day 3 PoE read.
I've gunned for MoI/had this wonderful gut 100% scumread on him twice. I'm two for two.

Um, What?

Two for Two? Have you been hitting the weed with VV?

You seem to want to dismiss every case where you are wrong because it doesn’t suit your argument.

Here’s a full record (I think so, did a quick skim of my Wiki to compile) of our completed games and your reads –

Lost Season 1 – You surprising didn’t call me scum. I was Town.
Personal Agenda Mafia – You ‘read’ me as Town since you were Mafia. Failed to realize I was Jester.
Gorrad’s Favorite Mafia – Called me scum Day 1. Was Town.
Secret Invasion Mafia – Called me scum. Was Town.
Return to Liten – Replaced in and called me a third choice scum (behind Thor). Was scum who lynched you.
Lost Season 2 – ‘Called me scum’ in Dead QT. Not in thread. Was scum.

Yeah, your track record isn’t nearly as accurate as you would like to pretend. The only game here where you actually read me correctly was Lost Season 1.

I look forward to throwing this game in your face as further evidence when it is over

[A Gaggle of Geese]

had this wonderful gut 100% scumread on him twice.

Please try to follow along.

[MagnaofIllusion]

I have to say I got a laugh out of Seacore’s “Furc is horrible” post at 619 with him being in the game (albeit in disguise).

If everyone is going to be absolutely stubborn in letting OGML skate as scum I’ll be moving my vote the new Ghost ( 00iC ) as deadline approaches.

--

This is mangified by the fact that OMGL is a medium town read to me, and the wagon on him is really ugly looking.

Justify your Town read on OMGL. Seriously. I’ve posted in two ISO fairly clearly why I think he’s scum (ISO1 and the new bit of Cognitive Diss at ISO 16). Please explain why those reasons aren’t valid suspicions.

--

Strange in a game where people otherwise seem ready to trip over their feet to wagon with me, huh?

Perhaps it is best explained in your wagonning every which way (including self-professed Town reads) has sapped everyone’s willingness to blindly follow you? It’s like the Boy who Cried Wolf to some degree.

--

@MOI: You asked me my thoughts on KK. In short I didn't like his post. I'm still doing my full read of the game, but I read that and something didn't feel/look can't explain with rereading kind of thing to it.

Ok, thanks for the info and explanation.

[Saint]

wut?

The first two paragraphs were about me, and you were making it like you weren't even addressing me, which seems like scum appealing to the town

We need a flip, I'm with that.

@Ythill

In 625, what was the point of bringing up those Seacore quotes and asking his intentions if you just thought it was skimming in the first place?

I agree with this question and it feels like a deflection before it even began
couple that with me finding Seacore scummy, and voila, I am more suspicious of Ythill than I was.
I seem to be teeter-tottering on my read

[Ythill]

@Ythill

In 625, what was the point of bringing up those Seacore quotes and asking his intentions if you just thought it was skimming in the first place?

1. I didn't think it was skimming
   in the first place
   . I'm still not completely sure it is. Prima facie, it looks like a lie, but I can't fathom a motive so meh.
   
2. In case it wasn't clear, skimming was logged as a scumtell.
   
3. Due to the curious nature of the sequence, I'd like to hear thoughts about this form others, specifically those who are listing Seacore as a suspect. I already said this.

It’s like the Boy who Cried Wolf to some degree.

There

are

wolves here.

What's the point in discrediting my methods? By the time these fruits ripen, I'm going to be confirmed.

[Seacore]

Ythill, I kind of have to agree with the others. Early wagons for wagon sake may be helpful. Particularly when we're low on information and it looks like, just maybe one of those people may be lynched.
However, the moment we've found some decent wagons, IMHO Ghostlin and OGML both fit this category, jumping off them to go and deliberately wagon somebody else to "see what shakes loose" isn't as interesting. That's why I didn't follow you. I found enough suspects for my Day 1 and I don't think declaring "I might come back to this lynch but first I'll go and place fake pressure on somebody else" is going to provide useful information.
I don't think you're scum for it. I don't think others think you're scum for it. But thats why I didn't follow you.

Did anybody explicitly say that Saint = Furc? I saw people mentioning Furc, but I see people in other games mentioning Fate and other notables when they're not in the game, often taking their name in vain.

Also, I want to not answer Furc, because there's no point. But I'll do it this once more.
Furc, I don't see how anything in my answer to you is me appealing to the town rather than answering you. I've also seen your ability with the English language, and it's incredibly lacking. This is not a slight, it's probably not your first language and having two is better than me, as I only know English. Still, please try not to base your reads over your interpretation of my grammar, because your interpretation is wrong. There is nothing in my response to you to imply direction to the town rather than to you.

[Kublai Khan]

@KK: Have you played with morph before? If so what was your read of his play this game? Yes I'm having you analysis a player you replaced.

No, I've never played a game with animorpherv1 before. I think. I checked my wiki and didn't see his name, but that doesn't preclude him replacing out of a game I've been in.

If I wasn't replacing animorpherv1, I'd be suspicious of him. Half of his posts are him posting a dense, weak case against Wraith, then standing up for it and being belligerent.

Also, he failed to show a why he thought a farside22 lynch would be a good idea. Actually, overall I hate his playstyle because he doesn't really explain any of his positions/reads on anyone.

That's about all I can analyze in 8 posts. So, quid pro quo. Why did you ask me to engage in this exercise?

[WrathChild]

@LL (#603): If OGML were to flip scum, it would reassure my read on SGR (leaning town), which I begun to lose faith in when he was rushing the end of the day.

@Saint (#606): I think you're picking up on what I was about the Seacore VI comment.

@Ythill (#616): Why are you avoiding hoping back onto the Ghostlin/00ic whatever lynch?

@Seacore (#619): I appreciate the explanation, because it's something I can actually discuss with you and not just say, "I'm not an idiot!". I think the VI/revive thing can go either way. I see where you're going, but I also feel that each dead person that the town won't want to come back is like a Kill+ for mafia. If they kill someone who everyone wants back, it not only brings back a threat, it also adds a second lynch for the day, which is another thing scum would NOT want to see. I kind of feel like your VI comment directed at me served no other purpose than to try to establish a no-revive attitude towards me, when I personally don't think I've earned it. I also don't like how you started off backing off calling me VI and then do it again at the end. I think your interpretation of how things will work is just that and to call me a VI for thinking that the mafia will want to pile up the graveyard with players that won't be revived is scummy for that very reason.

@Llama (#622): Nice regurgitate. Nice skim. This is a scummy post. I stated why I think OGML is scum several times. Read my ISO.

@KK (#623): I'd enjoy a meta discussion sometime. Now why is Furc an auto-disregard (seacore agreed with this)?

@Ythill (#625): LMP makes a statment about needing a flip and now you're ready to rush a lynch? While you don't say it, it sure sounds like you're implying it. That's weird because in your ISO #45, you told saint, "I didn't deter anything except unnecessary rushing" when OGML was on the chopping block.

@Farside (#630): Thanks for pointing out which ones I need to expand on. I will do that, but don't have time ATM. I will say that when I did those, I just went through the individual ISOs (checking in context when needed) and made notes as I went. I'll give you updated reads on them ASAP (Wife was sick yesterday so I was at home, still catching up at work today).

That's all I have time for today.

[Seacore]

@WC.

FACT: We have two sacrifice/revives
LIKELY FACT: We will wait until late game to use the revives. Most likely Lylo and the day before lylo, if that can be determined
LIKELY FACT: Unless we are extremely bad with our lynches, that means that revives won't be used until Day 4 and Day 5.
CONCLUSION: Scum will have killed 3 players by the time we use sacrifices. Another 3 players will already be dead from lynches.

We will pick the most awesome of those 6 to revive.

If we get nervous we can always do one revive on Day 3, meaning we're choosing from 4, but whatever.

Your argument is that by labeling you a VI, I'm enticing the scum to kill you instead of an awesome player, because we are just going to revive that awesome player and leave you dead.
Scum, if you're listening, please follow this plan. I will accept town points for promoting it.

[Seacore]

Actually, I've got a free moment at work, so I might put down some maths. I do this. Ignore it for the time being if you think it's too early to have the conversation. I'm putting it here more so others can build on it if they wish, but I can also find it no matter what computer I'm on.

18 players.

CASE 1: 1 scum team, no 3rd party with kills.
Assume 5 man scum team
Assuming successful NKs and all mislynches, Lylo, or Mylo actually, occurs D4.
A vig who can't aim speeds this up, failed NKs decreases this.

CASE2: 1 scum team, no 3rd party with kills
Assume 6 man scum team
Unlikely, Mylo would occur D3 under the same condition. Seems unbalanced but I suppose it can't be completely discounted.

CASE 3: 2 scum teams
Assume 2x3 or even x4 man scum teams
Lylo isn't so much a risk anymore although there are other problems

CASE4: 1 scum team + SK
Assume 5 man scum team.
This could be a problem with lylo, but at some point the SK is going to have to turn Vig if the town is doing that badly.

Conclusion: In most cases, waiting until Day 4 for sacrifices is fine. If on Day 3, everything has gone south for us, we can re-evaluate.

[Kublai Khan]

@KK (#623): I'd enjoy a meta discussion sometime. Now why is Furc an auto-disregard (seacore agreed with this)?

I never said I would disregard Furcolow/Saint. I hated him after the first game I've played with him, but he seems to have gotten a bit better. I'm trying to get a better read on him (to make him less of a VI to me), so knowing if he was a hydra or not helps me.

Seacore is the one who said he would disregard Furcolow. But that's a null-tell.

[Ythill]

However, the moment we've found some decent wagons, IMHO Ghostlin and OGML both fit this category, jumping off them to go and deliberately wagon somebody else to "see what shakes loose" isn't as interesting.

FTR, that's not what I'm doing. Ghost requested replacement. I had no intention of lynching an empty slot, and saw no reason to twiddle my thumbs while I waited. Wrath is as acceptable a lynch as 00iC is.

Did anybody explicitly say that Saint = Furc?

AGar's #13 was the first mention and is explicit. Context makes the others reasonably explicit. I don't really see much point in discussing this with you. I assumed it was skimming, you admitted it was. Point logged. I'm still interested in reading

others'

opinions of the sequence: namely MoI, KK, and anyone else who has you on his/her radar.

@Wrath:

Wielding the hammer != avoiding. The OGML lynch would have been an unnecessary rush; 00iC's lynch (or yours) would not. Nor would OGML's

at this time

, though I'm not interested in seeing him hang today at all.

Re: S/R

1. Depending on the number of kills, it might not be a terrible idea to use one Sacrifice D2 for the free cardflip but that can be discussed tomorrow.
   
2. I came up with an excellent use for the S/R mechanic in the right situation. To be discussed BS tonight and implemented later if applicable.
   
3. One of those revives is mine, dammit.

[LlamaFluff]

This is mangified by the fact that OMGL is a medium town read to me, and the wagon on him is really ugly looking.

Justify your Town read on OMGL. Seriously. I’ve posted in two ISO fairly clearly why I think he’s scum (ISO1 and the new bit of Cognitive Diss at ISO 16). Please explain why those reasons aren’t valid suspicions.

He reads as town?

I dont really see that much scum motivation for his play. He pushes on SGR, he defends his view and tunnel vision, and eventually is open to change and he justifies the change. There is nothing about his play that screams town, but I dont see much reason to consider him as scum, especially when you compare wagons and who are on them.

The OMGL wagon is one of the most ugly things to me, as I really dont have favorable reads of anyone on it. On someone that you are iffy on, that alone is a decent tell.

Deadline is Saturday and this is a busy week for me, no one is biting on a WC lynch, Ghost-scum is still a fine lynch.

unvote
vote 00con

[Seacore]

@mod

If a player in the Back Stage is killed, and then revived through sacrifice, do they return to the BS?

[Ythill]

I'm pretty sure we vote for BS each day and anyone currently alive can be voted in.

[Seacore]

Yeah, I thought it was more permanent than that, just re-read it, so my question can be ignored.