American Gods Mafia - Game over

[Seacore]

Llama

Please explain why this is not possible

MoI is being attacked for being scum and it's looking like a likely lynch.
MoI then says "I'm a better player than Saint, I'm going to sacrifice Saint, for myself, for the greater scum good.
MoI then outs Saint as scum, argues for Saint to be lynched instead of himself
Saint flips scum (not SK) and MoI is a hero and we raise him upon our shoulders and never discuss lynching him again.

[AGar]

@Agar: I don't think anyone without some brain cells connect actually believes Saint at this point.

I got the impression that some people did, hence him not being completely and unanimously run up for sacrificing.

@Agar - You are ignoring the possibility of fakeclaiming scum.

Saint or MoI?

If Saint, then uhhh what?
If MoI, then no I'm not. I'm not 100% on MoI-town, but for MoI to have properly identified Saint visiting Fate, it needs more than just "lolfakeclaimz"

[Kublai Khan]

A Gaggle of Geese is reading town.

@AGar - What is your OhGodMyLife town-read based on?

LynchMePls is playing very obtuse in his run at WrathChild. Has not made any substantially good posts on Day 3 at all.

OhGodMyLife has been keeping very under the rader on Day 3 as well. Seems to be actively trying to hide behind the wallpaper.

SGRaaize - "I'll get to this game soon, I swear" (for 8 days now)

LlamaFluff - Why is OhGodMyLife a bad lynch for today?

Why is Locke Lamora voting for MagnaofIllusion?

vote: OhGodMyLife
Unelect: Seacore

[LlamaFluff]

Llama

Please explain why this is not possible

MoI is being attacked for being scum and it's looking like a likely lynch.
MoI then says "I'm a better player than Saint, I'm going to sacrifice Saint, for myself, for the greater scum good.
MoI then outs Saint as scum, argues for Saint to be lynched instead of himself
Saint flips scum (not SK) and MoI is a hero and we raise him upon our shoulders and never discuss lynching him again.

Because of exactly what is happening. In a normal game, we see a claim and counter, one of the two is going up. In this game the probability of a claim and counter getting the result of "Lets lynch them both at once" is a very high one. It could very very easily result in a lynch of two scum, which is a disaster. Also the of course major gambit that MoI would have to risk anyone else having visited Fate that night when he claimed which would result in his instant death.

Can it happen, yes. It however is needlessly risky in a situation where he would not have needed to be needlessly risky. Occamz razor here: Saint scum, MoI town. I am rolling with that.

@Agar: I don't think anyone without some brain cells connect actually believes Saint at this point.

I got the impression that some people did, hence him not being completely and unanimously run up for sacrificing.

@Agar - You are ignoring the possibility of fakeclaiming scum.

Saint or MoI?

If Saint, then uhhh what?

Saint scum goes "oh shit he knows I visited Fate", then he goes "oh I can claim a protective role, and just say I was blocked". He isnt going to claim vig, no one else visited Fate, caught scum throwin up a desperation attempt to stay alive with an off the wall claim. The more likely fake claim.

LlamaFluff - Why is OhGodMyLife a bad lynch for today?

Because Sea is more likely scum. OGML isnt the worst lynch out there, but there are a few people who I see as more likely to be scum then OGML is at this point, so im not going to be gunning for that lynch. This is compounded by the case on him being more "is lurking" then anything else.

[AGar]

@AGar - What is your OhGodMyLife town-read based on?

His reactions to my attack on D1 with regards to the Ythill flip and the many wagons pushed by Ythill.

[LlamaFluff]

Agar - Same thing to you that I am pushing others on. Are you actually trying to argue that Saint-MoI are scum together here? I cannot remotely see this actually happening. MoI wagon needs to fall apart immediately.

[Locke Lamora]

Llama: I think it's a possibility that they're scum on the same team, although I agree that it would be a very risky play and the only real reason to do it as buddies would be for exactly that reaction, that people thought it was so unlikely scum-MoI would make a play that risky to throw scum-Saint under the bus that they were deterred from an MoI lynch. My more favoured theory links to what Farside stated at one point: that they're both anti-town but Saint is SK/scum of another faction and MoI has a scum role that has given him the information that Saint killed Fate. That, plus the points that the complexity and nature of MoI's claim seem incongruous with simpler roles and a revive mechanic, and that you were a more obvious watch target than Fate, give me a lot of doubt about the claim. We all seem to agree it's pretty likely that Ythill's killer was not town, so this seems like an entirely plausible scenario to me. If MoI can satisfactorily explain why he thought Fate was a better protect target when you were dropping huge hints that you were a PR, I'll probably be more inclined to believe him.

As for your point about MoI's role being unlikely as a scum role because picking up an extra kill would be unbalanced, isn't it possible that his role only backs up particular abilities? I see where you're coming from, but we have no evidence that MoI would gain an extra kill if another killing role was lynched. Which leads me to:

MoI: do you know whether you can gain any role in the game, or if there are any limitations to which roles you can pick up?

[AGar]

Agar - Same thing to you that I am pushing others on. Are you actually trying to argue that Saint-MoI are scum together here? I cannot remotely see this actually happening. MoI wagon needs to fall apart immediately.

Scum watcher is a plausible role.

If they are the same team, MoI could be pulling out a bus on a goon partner right now, knowing he doesn't have to further verify his claim at this point in time, using a 1-shot backup.

If they are separate anti-town factions, (again, totally plausible), MoI could still be a scum watcher who actually did see Saint visit Fate, who actually is another killing party, and be trying to save his own hide.

So I guess what I'm saying is I only buy half of MoI's claim - that Saint visited Fate. And Fate's dead. Which means Saint is lying about his role through his teeth.

[LimMePls]

Prodded. Not caught up from my missed weekend. Will post when I'm caught up.

[A Gaggle of Geese]

Gut still screams MOI scum. The claims are odd, I certainly don't think they're in the same scumgroup. Role still sounds off, I could definitely see a mafia info role in this set-up, maybe even as a rolecop scummoi could know Saint was SK...although that seems unfair to sk.

This latest stuff's let me a little confused, really. I need a re-read to get a grasp on the game to try get a better handle on it.

[LimMePls]

I gave a 1 shot BP to the Greatjon.

It was 2-shot! LAL!!!

Actually point still applies unless Saint flips vig I forgot already. Scum wouldnt be able to draw an extra kill power from lynched scum or lynched SK as that makes the game really unbalanced (vig less likely to be lynched so I can see it happening). We just dont get to prove it this way. Anyone see what I am trying to loop in here? I feel like im losing myself and everyone else in this logic.

Damnit Saint needs to post.

This, plus this post are awesome posting for me.

This is where I'd unvote and vote Seacore, but I already got that covered.

Not llama's case so much as I've just been suspicious of seacore for a while and this is finally an opportunity for a wagon on him to actually go places

We're lynching this into the ground when Seacore flips scum.

[WrathChild]

@MOD: Are we gonna get a Saint flip before the day is over? He's been at majority for a while now. Or does the sacrifice happen AFTER lynch?

[Jahudo]

”I can’t stop you from hunting eagle stones and thunderbirds. But I would infinitely prefer that you spend your days quietly sequestered in Lakesaide, out of sigh, and, I hope, out of mind.”

The sacrifice flip happens when the lynch flip happens

Resurrection Vote Count

7 Votes Required

Apokalyptika (9) – A Gaggle of Geese, Llamafluff, farside22, Seacore, OhGodMyLife, Locke Lamora, LynchMePls, AGar, MagnaofIllusion

Not Voting (4):

SGRaaize, Saint, Kublai Khan, WrathChild

--------------

Sacrifice Vote Count

7 Votes Required

Saint (8) – WrathChild, AGar, MagnaofIllusion, LynchMePls, Seacore, farside22, OhGodMyLife, Locke Lamora
Kublai Khan (1) – Saint
Seacore (1) – Llamafluff

Not Voting (3):

A Gaggle of Geese, SGRaaize, Kublai Khan

--------------

Lynch Vote Count

7 Votes Required

Seacore (3) – LynchMePls, Llamafluff, OhGodMyLife
MagnaofIllusion (3) – AGar, A Gaggle of Geese, Locke Lamora
OhGodMyLife (3) – MagnaofIllusion, farside22, Kublai Khan
WrathChild (1) – Saint

Not Voting (3):

SGRaaize, WrathChild, Seacore

--------------

Backstage Vote Count:

Top Four Players Go Backstage

Farside22 (6) – A Gaggle of Geese, LynchMePls, WrathChild, Saint, farside22, Locke Lamora
Llamafluff (6) – A Gaggle of Geese, Llamafluff, farside22, WrathChild, Kublai Khan, Locke Lamora
A Gaggle of Geese (5) – A Gaggle of Geese, Llamafluff, farside22, Seacore, LynchMePls
Locke Lamora (5) – Seacore, OhGodMyLife, Saint, Locke Lamora, MagnaofIllusion
-----
LynchMePls (3) – Llamafluff, LynchMePls, MagnaofIllusion
Seacore (2) – Seacore, Saint
Kublai Khan (1) – Kublai Khan
OhGodMyLife (1) – OhGodMyLife

Not Voting (10):

SGRaaize x3, AGar x3, WrathChild x1, OhGodMyLife x1, MagnaofIllusion x1, Kublai Khan x1

Day 3 ends on April 12 at 6:00 PM EST

[MagnaofIllusion]

In your belief of Saint and saying you watched Fate get shot. Why not think he was a vig?

Because the Fate shot from Saint as a Vig makes zero sense. Why, as a Vig, wouldn’t he be shooting someone he suspected. Look at his ISO. Day 2 he elected Fate backstage and placed votes to sacrifice me and lynch AGar. Were he a Pro-Town role why wouldn’t he have killed on of his most recent suspicions? No need to wait to hang scum when you are a Town Vig … you just shoot them.

His shot makes much more sense as SK / Mafia looking to keep suspicious players alive to lynch.

@MOI: Why would you "watch" Fate over Llama who was practically hitting people over the head that he had a PR?

Um whut? Llama’s soft-claims are pretty much in line with Fate’s soft-claims so I don’t see why you prioritize one over the other.

That said after the Apok flip my read on Fate was stronger Town than my read on Llama. Watching a scum-PR is much less likely to net useful results, IMO, so I took the bigger percentage play in my mind given I only had 1 shot.

Also if Saint is a SK do we know if he would flip just SK? What if there was more to him that you as a "back up" could have for the town.

If we are going to bring back Apok via Resurrection we have to send someone in his place. That person CAN’T be brought back as opposed to someone lynched. I don’t think my ability (which is marginal) warrants Sacrificing someone else. Even if we are forgoing some nice one-shot power I am more assured that Saint is scum via my result and his play than anyone else other than OGML.

If everyone would be on board sacrificing OGML and lynching Saint I’m all for that.

MOI: Is your back up ability for all alignments?

MoI: do you know whether you can gain any role in the game, or if there are any limitations to which roles you can pick up?

I clarified this immediately on getting my role-PM when I replaced in. I backup whatever powers the individual lynched has, regardless of alignment. I cannot replicate factional powers so for example …. Lynching a Mafia role-blocker would give me a 1 shot Role-block to use that night but not a kill since the Mafia kill is factional.

I looked and on the 22nd you were not posting in a marthon game. You posted in one of your games. So I ask again since you were behind why follow Fate and not see what the vote count was? Why avoid this game for the day during the discussion when you were clearly on MS?

What the hell is the point here? Day 2 opened the 19th and I had informed Jahudo I’d be V/LA until Monday the 21st.

I posted my weekend catchup on the 21st. My next post was the 23rd. I didn’t post on here the 22nd. So what? I wasn’t prodded. W hat is your fascination with the 22nd? It is some magical date to you? I only posted in one of my multiple ongoing games on the 22nd. I was rather busy that day and that game was paramount on my mind given my limited time. In my 23rd catch-up I missed that Apok was at L-1 (as I see that Llama posted). The previous Mod vote-count had him at L-3 and I missed a vote. Nothing more to say on the issue.

--

Yeah, granted my "ogml do this" "ogml did this, he's bad" looks bad at a glance. But asking somebody if they will do something or to provide reasons why not is not the same as hammering without thought.

So you are trying to say that your “OGML please do this” followed by your “OGML I can’t believe you did that you are tomorrow’s lynch” when he did simply what you requested (sacrificing Saint or explaining why he will not) is less scummy than an inadvertent hammer?

Yeah, admitting you are acting scummy but saying “Oh, oh … MoI is scummier” isn’t a very strong defense.

Here’s the question to you I’ve been asking Farside – if hammering before a claim is so scummy why did you not attack SGR on that exact point?

--

OhGodMyLife has been keeping very under the rader on Day 3 as well. Seems to be actively trying to hide behind the wallpaper.

That’s what scum do when they have a close call Day 1. Yes, I know my Day 2 hammer didn’t help matters …

[WrathChild]

”I can’t stop you from hunting eagle stones and thunderbirds. But I would infinitely prefer that you spend your days quietly sequestered in Lakesaide, out of sigh, and, I hope, out of mind.”

The sacrifice flip happens when the lynch flip happens

That sucks.

[WrathChild]

Going to read back now.

[farside22]

Llama: I think it's a possibility that they're scum on the same team, although I agree that it would be a very risky play and the only real reason to do it as buddies would be for exactly that reaction, that people thought it was so unlikely scum-MoI would make a play that risky to throw scum-Saint under the bus that they were deterred from an MoI lynch. My more favoured theory links to what Farside stated at one point: that they're both anti-town but Saint is SK/scum of another faction and MoI has a scum role that has given him the information that Saint killed Fate. That, plus the points that the complexity and nature of MoI's claim seem incongruous with simpler roles and a revive mechanic, and that you were a more obvious watch target than Fate, give me a lot of doubt about the claim. We all seem to agree it's pretty likely that Ythill's killer was not town, so this seems like an entirely plausible scenario to me. If MoI can satisfactorily explain why he thought Fate was a better protect target when you were dropping huge hints that you were a PR, I'll probably be more inclined to believe him.

LL and I have the same theory. WTF I need to go see a specialist now or call hell and see if it froze.

[farside22]

@MOI: What soft claim from Fate?

[Saint]

Well I don't know what else to do in this situation. I am really behind on this game.

Scum have tried to kill me already, so that's how MoI knows I'm an SK.

[Saint]

I will gladly work with the town.

[A Gaggle of Geese]

Well I don't know what else to do in this situation. I am really behind on this game.

Scum have tried to kill me already, so that's how MoI knows I'm an SK.

lololol suck it Faraday I was righttttttttttttttttttttttttttt

[Locke Lamora]

Saint: were you told someone targeted you?

[Saint]

No, I have deduced it from general gamefeel on how people (AGar/MoI) have tunneled and turned on me instantly after there was only 1 kill.

I am only bulletproof in certain instances
I really can disrupt roleblocking
but MoI might not be lying because I chose to go with myself being unroleblockable (50% like I said) last night, and uninvestigatable by dt, so here is information there is for sure a cop/rolecop (50% again on being un-dt-checked). I chose not to be untrackable/watchable for the first time, considering the flips (50% yet again).

I choose 2 of A,B,C a night
If you all still want to sacrifice me because I lied before, consider that I am just trying to play to my win condition. I feel backed against a wall, though.

I was the person who killed Ythill. I wish I had claimed it as a Vig hit, now. I doubted that being the proper play, as I made it to LYLO in another game offsite through NOT claiming, but you all are really good at putting a man's back against a wall.

[A Gaggle of Geese]

K back to thinking MOI is almost certaonly scum. Explains the convolute role claim (i.e. I think he's more likely scum gambitting, as a failed kill on saint is a good chance of not being doc protected).

I'd say the sset-up is 4/1/town btw, with the SK out there. I'd think saint should die today, I guess we could keep around, as a controlled vig but that never seems to end up being very good for the town IME.

[LlamaFluff]

Llama: I think it's a possibility that they're scum on the same team, although I agree that it would be a very risky play and the only real reason to do it as buddies would be for exactly that reaction, that people thought it was so unlikely scum-MoI would make a play that risky to throw scum-Saint under the bus that they were deterred from an MoI lynch.

This is essentiall a guilty claim on Saint from MoI. Are you really attempting to argue that the best thing to do in one of these scenarios is to lynch both the players instantly? Especially when the guilty result is one someone who is fairly obviously guilty at this point? Its a bad move to simply kill both of them at once, since you are nearly for sure going to be killing town on one side of the equation. You compare the claims, the actions, and everything else you know and then you lynch the scum out of the two, leaving town role alive to do other actions.

My more favoured theory links to what Farside stated at one point: that they're both anti-town but Saint is SK/scum of another faction and MoI has a scum role that has given him the information that Saint killed Fate. That, plus the points that the complexity and nature of MoI's claim seem incongruous with simpler roles and a revive mechanic, and that you were a more obvious watch target than Fate, give me a lot of doubt about the claim. We all seem to agree it's pretty likely that Ythill's killer was not town, so this seems like an entirely plausible scenario to me. If MoI can satisfactorily explain why he thought Fate was a better protect target when you were dropping huge hints that you were a PR, I'll probably be more inclined to believe him.

Scum-SK I can see happening, but I just dont feel too much. Scum-Other scum I think is safely ruled out as there is no distinguishing Mafia on Ythill flip. When there are multiple scum groups, they tend to flip Mafia A or X Country Mafia. The only mod I know who does not do this is Empking. Also there are other ways that scum can deal with someone who softclaimed some info like I did, when you consider Fate was thought of more likely town and more loud then I was, the choice of him over me is not beyond belief.

Also lol, Saint is now apparently a

NK immune miller vig

Bulletproof-Bodyguard-Roleblock Distruptor-Ninja-Investigation Immune-Vig who killed the player everyone thought was town night one.