Nintendo Mafia (Game Over)

[DemonHybrid]

Oh, this was the Lelouche game.

Alright. I'm going to start at the flipped scum and their interactions and pick up where the game left off; however, if I'm missing information, let me know.

[jmj3000]

Official Vote Count

Players needed to lynch: 7

danakillsu

- 3 - Kdub, esuriospiritus, GhostWriter - (L-4)

DemonHybrid

- 1 - Dekes - (L-6)

thil13

- 4 - Ythan, Pinky and the Brain, crazypianist1116, lewarcher82 - (L-3)

Ythan

- 1 - The Master Hand- (L-6)

Players not voting: GhostWriter, DemonHybrid, thil13, danakillsu, Bunnylover

(expired on 2011-06-06 05:00:00)

[lewarcher82]

Lewarcher, what do you think now, as of Ythan's claims? Do they match up with your thoughts?

no they do not. What I expected him to claim would have made a way more compelling case against thil.

In fact:

unvote

I now need to explain my behavious, as my reconstruction was evidently wrong.

Data:
(1) Ythan opposed thil on day 3, but he didn't refer to his role-related information.
(2) thil's guilty flips scum.
(3) thil claims RB'd on N3.
(4) at this point, Ythan decides to refer to his role-related info.
(5) asked for clarifications, Ythan states he is no cop
(6) Ythan says that new events on day 4 made him decide to refer to his role-related info.

My hypothesis:
A - Points (1), (4) and (6) made evident that Ythan had two clues. One was already evident to him on day 3, the other one was only evident on day (4).
B - if Ythan knew thil could have not investigated/gotten a guilty on pine, he could have either been (B1) the real cop or (B2) a role that prevented thil from doing what he said or knew he didn't.
C - (5) excluded (B1): he ain't no cop.
D - (B1) would happen if Ythan were: (D1) a roleblocker who blocked Ythan on day 3, (D2) a tracker who followed Ythan on night 2, (D3) a watcher who watched pine on night 2.
E - the only new event of day 4 is thil claiming blocked (3), and I thought this would have been the trigger for Ythan to reveal he had role-related info.

I therefore thought that Ythan was going to claim town RB, that he was on thil on night 2 and that he was NOT on thil no night 3. If this were Ythan's claim, the case on thil would have been really compelling.

However, my "deductions" now turn out to be wrong. And I fail to see the reason why doctor Ythan moving his nightsave from RC to thil would imply thil being scum. Are you implying scum would have a way to know that thil was going to be protected? Of course they did. You cannot attack a claimed cop when there is likely a protective role out there. But how is this related to thil's alignment and role????

I need to understand this situation. I will cast my vote after/depending on:
- Ythan calrifying/not clarifying his train of thoughts.
- dana posting/not posting the content he promised.

[crazypianist1116]

I'll wait for Ythan's explanation, but I doubt it's valid without the use of WIFOM...

[Pinky and the Brain]

/prod-dodge?

Post under construction right now (and will be up later tonight), need to get this post in before I get prodded though.

[Pinky and the Brain]

I have explicitly stated that I have information. I have denied having the kind of information certain narrowminded players assumed I was claiming.

Sorry, me being incompetent again. Failed at interpreting this post:

The part where I said I didn't have role information.

Queen of the shitty readers, or lying.

@ thil: A rephrased version of the question - what

did you think at the time

of Ythan's posts allegedly (according to others) hinting at him being a (counter-claiming) cop?

@ Ythan: Did anything in paticular motivate/provoke you to claim, or was it literally just to 'see what happens'?

Still happy with my vote

Why did you bother posting this?

~ Hoppster

[esuriospiritus]

I thought I posted more recently. Huh.

I still don't really have much to say though.

@TMH: Can you elaborate on why you're leaving your vote on Ythan, please?

[danakillsu]

It'll be a day or two before I post what I promised, just so people know. I'm busy with other things on this site atm.

[Dekes]

Alright, I'll be here for a while. After Ythan's explanation, I didn't feel the urge to point out the obvious flaw. Instead I looked back into the scum flips a bit and at the Espeo/Tragedy/thil wagons. I'll take another look now and see if I can something juicy.

Initial reaction to Ythan's claim. I buy it. Three killing factions (or two and a half depending on what you think of the N3 kills), town needs some protection. Plus, Ythan was town before that anyway.

Ythan, why protect RC? You yourself were wondering why scum killed the very unoutstanding RC, so why did you protect him nights 1 and 2?

[DemonHybrid]

I hate to do this to the mod, but

V/LA until Monday at 8 PM EDT

. I work this weekend, but I'll have sporadic posts in between.

[thil13]

@PatB: I didn't believe him, and if he had explicitly claimed cop I would be very inclined to call him definite scum.

[The Master Hand]

I thought I posted more recently. Huh.

I still don't really have much to say though.

@TMH: Can you elaborate on why you're leaving your vote on Ythan, please?

I still don't understand his whole

trust me

thing given his claim. Also, need to talk with Andrius to get his thoughts on the claim. Guess it wouldn't hurt to

Unvote:ythan

though

[lewarcher82]

I feel frustrated for the epic fail of my theory, but since Dekes mentioned balance, a little setup analysis would tell me that probably the killing factions are two, and we probably have a vig (and this should be the last time we mention this stuff unless new events force us to)... since pine's flip has no name at all, just "mafia", I guess there is one scum team and a serial killer... (sorry, esurio, but I think that your theory of two killings coming from the same player/party is very unlikely, and we have no reason whatsoever to assume the enemies are less numerous than they may be).

that said, if there are both a mafia and a sk, the likelyhood of neither of them hitting the voting bloc after the cop claimed is minimal, therefore the bloc is not to be trusted too much. I have reasons to think that if there is a non-town member in the bloc, it's prolly the sk (deductive reasons, not role-related info, let's make it clear now). However, I want the bloc to keep existing... let me quote L from Death Note: "Even if you were Kira... I could still use your help and keep you close"

I'd also tend to believe Ythan's claim. And I still fail to see any correlation to thil's alignment. I wouldn't be surprised to death if both claims were genuine, though I cannot be sure and will keep my eye on thil.

Dana's further delay is no longer tolerable, especially since his excuse is that he has to do other stuff on this very site. I don't believe it. I think he played defensively and was never worried about reading people, and now he needs time to make up some stuff.

Ythan, please explain the correlation between your role and thil's alignment.

[Pinky and the Brain]

@PatB: I didn't believe him, and if he had explicitly claimed cop I would be very inclined to call him definite scum.

Is this based on:

a) His play not fitting with the claim (not fitting with that of a cop)
b) The actual claim alone (ie. you doubting there would be two cops in the setup)
c) The way/manner in which he had been (allgedly) soft-claiming cop
d) Other - please state?

~ Hoppster

[GhostWriter]

Still happy with my vote

Why did you bother posting this?

To show the claim had done nothing to decrease the Dana-scum likelihood or increase the Thil-scum likelihood, at least within my eyes.

[thil13]

@PatB: I didn't believe him, and if he had explicitly claimed cop I would be very inclined to call him definite scum.

Is this based on:

a) His play not fitting with the claim (not fitting with that of a cop)
b) The actual claim alone (ie. you doubting there would be two cops in the setup)
c) The way/manner in which he had been (allgedly) soft-claiming cop
d) Other - please state?

~ Hoppster

C, a counter claim should be outright and not just a small hint. Counter claiming is a big move that will show who is scum and who isn't. The fact that he sort of played around it didn't make me think he was cop. Besides, I already AM the cop.

[lewarcher82]

Are you implying scum would have a way to know that thil was going to be protected?

I'll wait for Ythan's explanation, but I doubt it's valid without the use of WIFOM...

still don't understand his whole trust me thing given his claim.

the claim had done nothing to decrease the Dana-scum likelihood or increase the Thil-scum likelihood

Ytahn, I don't see why you would fake such a claim, so I tend to believe you, but make sure your next post answers some of the questions/doubts that have been raised.

[Ythan]

Bender, I protected RC n1 because he was the town read of mine highest on the playerlist. He became a much firmer town read when nobody died n1.

And if anyone doesn't grasp why it indicates that thil is scum they need to ask about the specific part they can't get through their head. Just saying "Why" is stupid. What part can't you grasp.

[The Master Hand]

Isn't it obvious? A doc is not an investigative role. How does protecting thil and him not getting killed make him scum? You are assuming that scum would IMMEDIATELY lynch a cop without a moments thought. This is a lie. Thil was still going to be a target (as shown by today) and, if they have a roleblocker, it makes things that much easier.

[Ythan]

Then I guess only 9/10 of the reasons thil is obvious scum work. Good thing I explicitly stated before claiming that I was going to offer up my information to the consideration of a greater number of players.

[danakillsu]

Dana's further delay is no longer tolerable, especially since his excuse is that he has to do other stuff on this very site. I don't believe it. I think he played defensively and was never worried about reading people, and now he needs time to make up some stuff.

This is just remarkably ignorant. It shows a complete disregard for any real information.

Okay, here are my reads (in order of scumminess) after iso'ing:
Town:
thil13
esuriospiritus
Ythan
Pinky and the Brain
The Master Hand
Bunnylover

Null:
GhostWriter
DemonHybrid
Dekes
crazypianist
lewarcher

Scum:
Kdub (see next post)

And yes, I only have one scum, because there aren't a ton out there anymore, and this guy jumps out to me especially.

[danakillsu]

Also, I should mention that the thil thing isn't actually definite town, it's just that I have no idea where to put him.


Kdub
Iso 0: Says that Espeonage's flip should carry information about my alignment.
Iso 6: Says there's a good chance Espeonage is TOWN, and then doesn't proceed to vote me, but rather Ghost Writer, whom he has not called scummy.
Iso 8: Says IF Espeonage is town, I am a better place to put his vote. This obviously means that if Espeonage is scum, I am a worse place to put his vote.
Iso 11: Asks esurio to "trust him" that Espeonage is a bad lynch.
Iso 13: Makes no attempt to understand what I am saying and instead asks a sarcastic question that misreps my post.
Iso 14: Attempts to frame thil by mentioning that thil had said nothing that day about Pine being scummy. The problem with this is that for thil to do so would have been horrible play if he wasn't sure whether to out his guilty.
Iso 20: Makes sure to drop something about me not being town, just so people don't forget that's his read.
Iso 22: Finally reveals that his reason for thinking Espeo/Pine was town was somebody else's supposed breadcrumb. This doesn't make sense to me. Why on earth would someone leave such an obvious breadcrumb as "I looked into him over the night phase"? Surely, no townie would really think he should stop everyone from lynching whoever they wanted over this. Also says his vote on me is good "for now", but hasn't moved it since, despite not pointing out any more "scumtells" in my posts.

unvote vote: Kdub

[Ythan]

Why did you put him at the top of your town list then. You said it was in order.

[danakillsu]

:/ That's what I was trying to explain at the top of the second post. Putting him there was probably a mistake, because I really don't know where to put him. Suffice it to say, he's not actually at the top of my town list.

[esuriospiritus]

Why am I higher than Ythan? Why are Dekes and Lewarcher scum?

I happen to have a pretty decent town read on Kdub, the espeonage thing aside.

@Ythan: Let's pretend for a moment that thil is out of the picture, one way or another. Who else do you think is scum?