A Gentleman's Game of Guile, Subterfuge, and Intrigue (Fin)

[Hoppster]

OMG, I JUST THOUGHT OF SOMETHING!

I remember the mod saying, that he could confirm about the pm I recieved from him saying that imaginality was town and all that, so I think that confirms imaginality, and me as town. (You guys may not be 100% sure I'm town, but I don't think scum would reveal that kind of information.)

I really, really do not think newb-scum can fake this.

Some of her recent posts seem similar to her scum-game (she has flipped) in [REDACTED - ONGOING], but I really, really think this paticular post is 100% newb-town. I'm quite confident that jilynne (and thus imaginality) are town.


Although TT's response is really towny, I just... eh. Were he town, it would mean 3/4 of {Feysal, inHim, vezok, AVox} to be scum.

Feysal's lack of hammer means he is town if TT is town, leaving {inHim, vezok, AVox}. Even with inHim-town, it would probably make more sense for Feysal-scum to secure the lynch (admittedly he could just be very lax/lazy scum, but I'm going to have to assume that's not the case and that Feysal-scum would have made sure that the hammer was indeed the hammer).

Both inHim and vezok are kinda-semi-confirmed-ish through different means, but there's no alternatives which means inHim must be a Mafia One-Shot Vig of some sort and vezok a Flavour Godfather, and, ehhh.

vezok's posts where he says he's confirmed also remind me of Source Code Mafia to an extent where he (incorrectly) assumed he was confirmed-town (he was not, as he is not in this case either).

This has been a bit long-winded, but the gist of it is that I still think TT is scum.

VOTE: ToastyToast

With vezok probably being town, the other two are in {inHim, Feysal, AVox} (I am strongly considering Mafia One-Shot Vigilante as a possibility).

The only potential spanner in the works is that Feysal-scum with inHim and AVox could have been careless in missing the hammer (as I mentioned earlier), however I feel AVox-scum would have kept his vote on and waited for Feysal to come in and eventually hammer.

@Sir Hoppster: Please do not "pseudo-vote" in such a format. At a glance I could have easily and regrettably mistaken it for a true vote.

My sincerest apologies for any distress I may have caused you as a result of my recklessness, most benevolent Moderator.

However:

@ Mod: How would the Bodyguard role have worked in this setup

(if you are willing to tell us)?

I've seen different variations of the role: sometimes they kill the attacker, sometimes both they and the attacker die, sometimes they just attract the NK instead, etc.

Assuming it's not the last one, then Mafia One-Shot Vig could fit quite easily and plausibly into this setup imho.

[ToastyToast]

A vig, regardless of having a roleblocker, can be emotionally off-putting to a scum team. Knowing that someone can kill them in a night phase is just enough to let them avoid quick-hammering. Not to mention all the positive WIFOM it gives the team for not hammering their target. Its also possible that the scum team was on me already (b4 L-1)

I don't like how vezok keeps saying "IM CONFIRMED! IM CONFIRMED!"
Feysal is quiet...too quiet
Still don't like Hoppster
AV is becoming more town.

[AurorusVox]

Laptop power cable has died, I have seven minutes of power left. I will be without access til Tuesday when I get another one delivered!

[Wraith]

Oh dear, it appears that I have continuously misplaced the date of deadline when I count the ballots. The deadline for this day in

July 1, 2011

.

As for the

Altruistic and Honorable Gentleman Steadfast in Courage and Resolve

, as you so crudely refer to as a "Bodyguard," the occupation functions as it would in any normal gathering - should that Gentleman's protectee be targeted by dastardly deeds of death, the Gentleman would perish in his stead.

[jilynne1991]

So wait, is that a lynch?

Also, um, I don't quite understand why I may be scum...

[Hoppster]

A vig, regardless of having a roleblocker, can be emotionally off-putting to a scum team. Knowing that someone can kill them in a night phase is just enough to let them avoid quick-hammering.

No, not regardless of a scum roleblocker. If there is a scum roleblocker they have nothing to fear. And if you're town, there must be a roleblocker.


Given:

As for the

Altruistic and Honorable Gentleman Steadfast in Courage and Resolve

, as you so crudely refer to as a "Bodyguard," the occupation functions as it would in any normal gathering - should that Gentleman's protectee be targeted by dastardly deeds of death, the Gentleman would perish in his stead.

Mafia One-Shot Vigilante seems more unlikely (for balance reasons), meaning inHim is probably town.

So wait, is that a lynch?

Also, um, I don't quite understand why I may be scum...

It's not a lynch, it's L-1.

Who is the second part of your post directed at?

[jilynne1991]

Uh, I think everyone that thinks I'm scum, I guess.

[ToastyToast]

@Hoppster: Its just enough information to cause a scum team to hesitate. Just because scum don't actually HAVE anything to worry about doesn't mean they won't worry. A powerful town role will cause paranoia among a scum team. You are missing my point entirely, this is a psychological evaluation on what the reasons for not hammering would be. It consists of 1) just enough paranoia (there are plenty of roles that can block a roleblock/town may be hiding something. Vezok also hasn't claimed yet--and shouldn't) 2)being unsure if the whole scumteam is present and 3) WIFOM

Hoppster, I am aware that there has to be a roleblocker (unless inHim is lying, which is highly unlikely). I also know what I am. As such, from my point of view, I can assess what the scum motivation would be for NOT hammering me. All your other conclusions are based on a "TT scum bias". This is poor scumhunting because I haven't flipped. One-shot vig speculation is also useless, because 1) inHim would have said so if he was town and 2) You said it yourself. Scum only need a mislynch to win. I think Hoppster has a good chance of being a roleblocker, given his adamant references to the issue.

[jilynne1991]

My personal reasons for not hammering, is that from your reaction from you supposedy thinking that you were lynched seem quite townie, but the rest of your actions say otherwise. Also, we have a little more time, but I can gurantee you if the game keeps going on like this, I'll hammer close to the deadline.

[Feysal]

Acknowledging prod. Apologies for the short absence, though vezokpiraka is partly to blame for it for his apparent trickery.

Feysal's lack of hammer means he is town if TT is town, leaving {inHim, vezok, AVox}. Even with inHim-town, it would probably make more sense for Feysal-scum to secure the lynch (admittedly he could just be very lax/lazy scum, but I'm going to have to assume that's not the case and that Feysal-scum would have made sure that the hammer was indeed the hammer).

As much as I like your conclusion, I'm afraid the truth is I simply fell for vezokpiraka's ploy. I was away from the game on account of Midsummer's Eve, and came back to see what I believed was the hammer. There did not seem to be any reason to say anything, since I expected the game to either proceed into the night or end in town loss. I realized my mistake today.

Now that I am here, I'd still rather not hammer away blindly. I admit that imaginality has a point about the lack of a quickhammer, but if I fell for the gambit, who can say if the mafia did not too?

[jilynne1991]

Ok, I'm hammering tomorrow night, if there's nothing more to say. I'd like to see the flip and I don't have anyone else in mind that's better. This is boring, and there's nothing going on.

[vezokpiraka]

someone hammer already.

[AurorusVox]

A vig, regardless of having a roleblocker, can be emotionally off-putting to a scum team.

Losing townpoints.

Stating that right now, I am not quickhammering. I'd ask that we hold off for a while, because I'd rather we didn't rush when we have about a week left, and we can take our time to decide here.

---

VEZOK

If TT is town, that means he's not GF, which means Vezok

could

be a GF. If scum have no RB'er, TT/Vezok can't be scum together.

For Vezok to be scum, they would have {GF-RB} to town's {Flavour-Cop-Vigilante-Bodyguard-Miller}. Playing outguess the mod here but that looks scumsided; Miller, RB and GF to screw the

flavour

cop, Bodyguard and RB screw with the Vig...ugh too much modWIFOM for me to deal with.

Verdict: Vezok = town

---

INHIM

I see no reason to read inHim as part of a scumteam. He could be SK but that is it. The double-kill N1 makes him

confirmed non-mafia

.

---

IMAGINALITY

Primary (mis)lynch target today; however, he can only be scum if he had concocted a diabolical plan with Jily as part of the scumteam. That means we are 1/3 likely to hit scum with Toasty, based on numbers of non-clears (or near enough) alone. If we take Vezok as non-clear, then that trashes it to 1/4. I do NOT think that Vezok would have come up with the plan, however; I will need to consider Imaginality's scumgame to see if he likes pulling gambits or whether I need to focus on {Feysal/Hoppster/ToastyToast}. That said, Imaginality is

100% not today's lynch

.

---

HOPPSTER

I gave him shovels of townpoints for his deadline request, and I still read him as the most townish out of the non clears.

I am not interested in a Hoppster lynch today

but may reread him to garner more interest on later days if necessary.

------------

FEYSAL

Feysal strikes me as the sort of player who would come up with a {Jily-Imaginality} gambit, but I can't back that up beyond the fact that I read him as a very intelligent and methodical player who would be open to this. HOWEVER, Feysal scum implies Toasty scum - why else would he have not quickhammered? If Feysal is scum I wouldn't put it past him to feign ignorance over the L-1/Hammer gambit in order to save Toasty further down the line. If Feysal scum implies Toasty scum, he CAN'T be responsible for the {Jily-Imaginality} gambit, which takes that off the table. I would

consider a Feysal lynch, but I wouldn't push it

.

---

TOASTY

Toasty. Toasty toasty toasty. If he realised Vezok was lying about the hammer vote, or is the sort of player who keeps up the "I'm town" act until the modscene, then he's my top pick for scum. He's only played one scumgame, and he didn't post between the hammer and the modscene, but only about an hour passed between them. It isn't enough for me to judge from so that's incredibly unhelpful. The lack of quickhammer - from Feysal OR Jily, my other two main suspects now, really does not speak in his favour. Ugh. I want to believe he is scum, I really do.

Verdict: probable scum but niggling feeling I'm wrong

---

JILY

If Toasty is town, {Feysal-Hoppster-Jily} has to be our team; Toasty town heavily implies Jily scum FMPOV (Feysal-Hoppster-Vezok would be the only alternative, which...is not appetising). Hoppster has bashed Vezok as being "non-confirmed" and so I can't see them as a scumteam ('less he's only doing it because he KNOWS Vezok is scum, hmm). Jily scum is also a MUST if Imaginality is scum (low % but raises her number of possible teams).

If Toasty flipped scum, Jily is less of a sure shot at scum; Feysal-Hoppster-Toasty could still work, but {Feysal/Hoppster}-Toasty-Jily is MUCH more likely IMO. Reciproaclly, JilyScum makes ToastyScum more likely due to the lack of a quickhammer, and her dithering between "hammering near deadline" and "hammering tomorrow" looks like she's seeking a hint from her scumbuddies.

Verdict: Very likely scum

I think we're likely to be more successful with a Jily lynch, but that's only because I can take myself out of the equation since I know I'm town. You guys don't have that same luxury and I won't stand in the way of a Toasty lynch. In all honesty Toasty is probably also scum, but right now I am more certain about Jily.

Vote: Jily

---

Thing is,

both

of my two other suspects make Toasty a likelier scumshot. I'm more than happy to see his lynch today but I'd ask that we hold off just to consider other options for a while.

[jilynne1991]

Vezok, I would certainly hammer except for the fact, that everyone's still discussing...

Hmmm, what bothers me the most is that no one's explaining WHY I'm scum.

[inHimshallibe]

Vezok, I would certainly hammer except for the fact, that everyone's still discussing...

Hmmm, what bothers me the most is that no one's explaining WHY I'm scum.

At this point, we're down to process of elimination. It's no fault of your own, you can come clean.

[jilynne1991]

...What do you mean by "it's no fault of your own,you can come clean."

[vezokpiraka]

...What do you mean by "it's no fault of your own,you can come clean."

If you are scum we already know that. So you can claim if you want.

[inHimshallibe]

Yep pretty much.

Sorry I haven't had much to say about this game. I do think Toasty's actions have been less than stellar, and the hesitation worries me.

[AurorusVox]

Ehh. Lack of quickhammer on

multiple

fronts = very very very likely ToastyScum.

Is it worth delaying the hammer to discuss other people? Part of me says yes - more ideas from more people before someone dies, but part of me says no - more info to scum on who makes a good NK target + WIFOM following from it.

[vezokpiraka]

We need to end this day.

We can atalk about other scum tomorrow after we see the NK.

[AurorusVox]

Willing to hammer, effective immediately, but holding off for a few hours in the hope that Feysal posts something.

[jilynne1991]

Ok...I still don't get that...

Anyways, there's still content going around...I'll wait till that stops I guess.

[AurorusVox]

Jily, what content do you think is going around?
I haven't really seen much from your last few posts other than your willingness to hammer.

When I asked you to give three suspects, you named them, but they didn't work as a team (if x is town, y is scum etc). I'd like your take on a FULL three-person TEAM. It doesn't matter if its right or wrong. It's just useful to have.

[jilynne1991]

you, feysal, and tt

I can't see any other 3-person team. I don't find you scummy, but your the most likely to be scum.

[AurorusVox]

Okay, thanks. Now, thoughts on Hoppster?