Mini 1180: Game Over

[mastin2]

pretty much no commentary about other players
^I've given plenty of commentary on ALL other players. PLENTY. ALL.

Ald gave commentary on only a few. Sure, on a few names, he commented on. But on others, he ignored.

If that makes sense.

[Ironhead]

Dang. I was kinda hoping that there was enough suspicion on Secret that they wouldn't be NK'd.

Why the long face? Someone had to be NK'd; SP was merely a vanilla townie, not a PR. The only thing better would have been a no-kill. So why the lament for SP?

TWIE is confirmed town.
As is Elsa.

Absolutely not. Neither are confirmed town; right now, no players are confirmed town.

When was the last time you saw BOTH of the lead wagons being on scum? (Hint: it doesn't happen.) TWIE was the counterwagon to WormyKrew, WormyKrew flips scum, TWIE is confirmed town. Perfect sense to me.

TWIE was not an early "random" bandwagon that could be engineered by scum as a counterwagon to save their own. The TWIE-wagon generated after players noted TWIE's scummy behavior. In other words, I don't think the TWIE wagon was ginned up by scum to reverse momentum on WK wagon. The WK wagon faltered in the middle of the day and only came on strong toward the end -- not enough time for scum to throw their weight behind a TWIE wagon. Therefore, I don't think there is anything to indicate that TWIE's wagon is indicative of town simply because WK flipped scum.

Third off: {Broken, Iron, Soben, Alex} contains EXACTLY one scum. No more.

Why "EXACTLY one"?

Also, in the group of {Alduskkel, Ironhead, Darth Yoshi, Soben}, there is a MINIMUM of one scum. (Possible--but VERY improbable--to have two.) It's almost certainly either Ald or Yoshi.

Please explain your reasoning? Also, both groups include both Soben and me. I know with 100% certainty that I am not scum; and I am confident in Soben as well. After his unexpected hammer yesterday, I carefully scrutinized his ISO and I am still convinced that he is not scum -- he is now my top town-read. If you could eliminate the two of us from both groups, which players would you think are scum and why?

[mastin2]

Still a bit tired right now, sorry. But I've got an idea in my head. An idea which refuses to die. I know, I hate it, but it happens. I'm too exhausted to Finish My Notes, right now, but needless to say, I think I need to reread.

But to answer your question. If I eliminated both you and Soben (trust me--I noticed you two were in both groups quite some time ago) from both groups, then that leaves Broken (a town-read) and Alex (a...well... ... ...yeah. ) in that group, and Ald/Yoshi in the other.

Those lists I posted, I know are on to something.

If you don't mind, right now, I think I need sleep. Look at me; my sentence structure is degrading.

[Soben]

I've continued to wait for Scumhunter to pop online however our difference in timezones seems to be hurting significantly right now, I'll continue to wait just a little longer before I go into my reads in regards to the night kill and the reactions to day-start. I tend to agree with Alduskkel, I don't believe that Jillyns blocking has any relation to the allignment of the person she was likely to shoot. Shooting confirmed her as town which is something that scum would want to avoid whenever possible.

Mastin, pushing the idea that the counter-wagon was an attempt to save Wormy making TWIE confirmed town is completely incorrect however he does have a point in relation to Elsa being more likely town. The entire idea of a counter-wagon always being town relies heavily on the fact that the person pushing it was the alternate wagon choice. In this particular case it would rely on the strength of Wormys push on the TWIE wagon which was extremely weak. In fact his vote reads as a last ditch attempt to seem pro-town rather than actually getting TWIE lynched, furthermore both TWIE and Sleepys lack of effort and avoidance of the thread near the deadline makes perfect sense if it were to be a double scum wagon.

[Captain Corporal]

I almost forgot about this game.
Sorry.

Will get back into posting ASAP.

[Substrike22]

Fixed, but, who fixed it? Cause it wasn't me, and I don't really like people editing posts in my games. Please let me do it in the future. Thanks

It actually isn't fixed. Look at the end of the first sentence in the quote tag--my quote tag code has a typo in it, which I'm guessing caused my screw-up there.

Alternatively...it was gremlins.

Fixed for realzies this time. Sorry I thought you mean you screwed up the quote tag at the end of the whole thing... then saw it in a quote block and figured all was well.

[Soben]

@WormyKrew, my vote isn't set in stone. It's d1 after all. I wouldn't mind going after a lurker that could be a liability later.
What are your thoughts on TheWayItEnds? Oh and can you explain your town read on Aldusskel?

Town reads (from strongest to weakest): jilynne1991, ironhead, secret project, darth yoshi, captain corporal (much of this is based on my read on gerhard), mastin2
Very Slightly leaning town/null: weirdalexv, Monk
Very Slightly leaning scum/null: Aldusskel, TheWayitEnds
Scum reads (from strongest to weakest): WormyKrew, ElsaVonSpielburg (lurking is a scumtell from her imo)

This guy was on to something imo. ^ ^ ^

Regfan. I'm here buddy. Sorry been in a bit of a drunken V/LA haze the last couple days and let you handle the game for the most part before that. Now that Wormy has flipped scum its time to go back to out slot's reads before I let you talk me into that "gut town read" on Wormy. Let's chill in the QT and discuss things. Send me a message on MSN if you see this in the next 30 mins or so.

[Soben]

I think one thing we learned from Wormy flip is that Iron is solid town. I had strong doubts about him before that flip.

[DarthYoshi]

pretty much no commentary about other players
^I've given plenty of commentary on ALL other players. PLENTY. ALL.

Ald gave commentary on only a few. Sure, on a few names, he commented on. But on others, he ignored.

If that makes sense.

Yes, fair 'nuff. I think I am just still full of piss and vinegar over your case on me.

@Ironhead: Can you explain the strength of your townread on Soben? He was (is?) a townread of mine, but WK's flip with how strongly he pushed a TWIE lynch until that point is giving me some pause.

@Soben: Similarly, please explain how WK's flip makes Iron obvtown. I think Iron is probtown, but I don't think I'm as convinced as you seem to be.

[mastin2]

I got some sleep last night, and am now thinking a little more coherently. Still, though. I haven't re-read, but I need to. "The Monster inside of me is getting larger."
(In this case, that being, an idea taking ahold of my mind. It's growing, getting larger. And I need to see if this idea is well-based, or shoot it down quickly before it evolves to tunnel vision. That's what the re-read is for.
If I'm right, I DEFINITELY will not support an Alex lynch, for starters.)

[Ironhead]

@Ironhead: Can you explain the strength of your townread on Soben? He was (is?) a townread of mine, but WK's flip with how strongly he pushed a TWIE lynch until that point is giving me some pause.

That was why I reviewed him in ISO. I thought that perhaps he was a scum playing it straight and trying to push TWIE as a straightforward alternative wagon to WK. But; I feel that "they" (or at least one of the heads) think like I do. So it was easy for me to put myself in their shoes. He seemed genuine and passionate about his town-read on WK and his scum-read on TWIE; I think someone who misses big is more townish than someone who misses small. It is also more townish than someone who knows for certain that someone will flip scum and cannot be perturbed about that scum-read throughout the day, and Soben was self-questioning throughout the day. An underlying theme to Soben's disagreement with the WK wagon is that he found valid reasons to disagree with it, as opposed to the normal scum tactic of grasping at straws to come up with reasons not to vote someone -- for example, the way he dismissed mastin2's case as incoherent. Also, there was apparently disagreement between the two heads of the hydra, which is indicative that at least half their mind did not accord WK a town read. So overall -- it reinforced my read of him before the hammer, which is that he is a very strong town-read.

[Soben]

Yoshi, I remember specifically when Iron jumped on the WK wagon. It wasn't a time that would make sense for a scum partner to jump on the wagon really. I remember speaking with Regfan when Iron jumped on the WK wagon and my suspicion of Iron went up significantly because I was in the mindset that WK was town at that point (thanks to Regfan's misread). It was a hydra disagreement that was quite strong. So strong in fact that Regfan felt compelled to list WK as one of our 4-5 town reads in his initial post even though I disagreed.
Regfan's town read on WK was based on meta/gut and even though I didn't completely agree with it or understand I decided to go along with it. Also, I have a tendency to be a bit lazy in games sometimes and with Regfan as a hydra partner it actually can increase my laziness as he is almost always a very active player.

I was V/LA this weekend in a 72 hour drunken stupor, but since my return I have had the opportunity to speak with Regfan and WK's flip actually make us suspect Elsa a fair bit less than we had previously and we both very much suspect TWIE still.

We felt WK's VT claim could potentially have been either an attempt to sacrifice the weaker goon role for a stronger mafia role held by TWIE or that it was a gambit to hope that things would go a little like this:
1. WK claims VT
2. People unvote because "why would scum ever claim VT there"
3. Wagon commences on TWIE.
4. TWIE can claim pr and vote moves elsewhere

^ This chain of events would likely be my thought process as to a last ditch effort if I were in WK's scum shoes with a TWIE partner. We also felt WK/TWIE weren't ever really pushing on each other unless it was out of necessity. We think WK-scum would have pushed a lot harder on a TWIE-town lynch yesterday. Regfan may be able to organize our thoughts into a more condensed and pretty looking case with more evidence but that is the gist of it really.

As such,

vote: TWIE

[Alduskkel]

@Ald: Bleh, I forgot about that (re: a one-shot losing their ability if RBed).

Okay, day before LyLo, if town hasn't already won, then Jily needs to be policy lynched. Everyone okay with this? ('Cept probably Jily. Sorry. )

While I am not on board for a jily policy lynch, I will lynch jily based on the fact that she is scummy. (See my wall.)

If I must be lynched if you guys don't win, lynch me earlier. I'm not bitter or anything, I just don't want to spend unnesecary energy on a game where I'm going to be killed. (I actually want to spend my summer productively, but I'd hate to replace out.)

Anyways, I don't think I'm good at finding scum or anything.

To be honest I was suprised when Wormy flipped scum too.

You know what? Forget it, keep me around as long as you want. Btw, it's fine, DarthYoshi. I understand your reasoning.

I'd much prefer it if you actually did some scumhunting beyond gut and some weak scumtells thrown in on occasion.

One of Ald or Yoshi should be lynched today.

Why the hell am I scum, again? You never finished your damn overview/reread/note-posting for this game, you just posted the first few pages. (Why has everyone but me forgotten about this?)

Iso me or something. I feel exactly like DarthYoshi: You're not giving me much of a case to respond to.

This is ridiculous because the part I bolded is just what you get if you expand wierdalex's contraction (I've --> I have) in the original quote.

No. "I've" is NOT the same as "I have". The difference is very subtle. But it gives off a different message. It's a very slight difference, but it gives off that altered tone, altered message.

Then what is the difference? You're going to have to elaborate. As it is you're just dismissing my argument without explaining why I'm wrong.

Also, rolefishing?

Why did you think I didn't want to post the town-slip?

Don't me. I'm talking about a legitimate scumtell from you.

That is not how randomizing roles works.

And--of course--you pick the very weakest part of my argument to attack.

Since I didn't want a repeat of Newbie 748 (explanation: walls between me and Mastin each responding to the entire previous wall), I picked things that were especially wrong. And that's why it is the weakest part of your argument, because it is particularly wrong.

Now, unless we managed to have 2 scum as our leading bandwagons on Day 1, I'd wager that there's scum in the people who were trying to counterbalance the WormyKrew lynch with a TheWayItEnds lynch.

Dang. Someone beat me to it.

Yeah, the someone you think is scum right now. If I'm scum, then why did I post that? Are you saying you agree with someone you think is scum, then? Especially on a point about who's scum...

Also, Ald's overall suspects are...shall we say...quite weak. Me, the three above, no vote, and...pretty much no commentary about other players. (He called TWIE and Elsa town, but aside from that, he is leaving himself open to vote for...pretty much any player on the list.)

Umm, what? I told you who I suspected right around the time I posted my wall. They were WormyKrew, Captain Corporal, and jilynne. Then I listed you, Elsa, and TWIE as people who I wanted to see more content from and were a bit scummy (but, take note, not scummy enough to make it to my primary suspect list) because they were/are lurkers.

This looks like scum covering their tracks for not being on the scum-lynching wagon.

Lines like this (not to mention overall tone) are one of the reasons Yoshi continues to be right there at the top of my list.

Okay, day before LyLo, if town hasn't already won, then Jily needs to be policy lynched.

Let me put this in the best possible wording:

No

.

Man, remember when you explained things Mastin? That was great. I remember those days. Good times.

I'd like to see more explaining and less unsubstantiated statements with excessive amounts of smilies.

And your [DarthYoshi] post here is yet another example of why you continue to be at the top with Ald, making it harder for me to stay on him. Trying to get me onto Alex, for instance.

Maybe DarthYoshi is trying to get you to vote for wierdalex because he wants wierdalex lynched because he believes him to be scum,

which is the pro-town thing to do

.

This is really dumb. I am pretty sure DarthYoshi is town.

Ald gave commentary on only a few. Sure, on a few names, he commented on. But on others, he ignored.

I tell you who I suspect. On occasion, I give other reads. But my suspect list should be sufficient in itself. I could comment on other players, but it would be a whole lot of telling you why I think they're town or why I have a null read on them or whatever.
---
For the record, my plans are to iso WormyKrew, Captain Corporal, brokenscraps, Soben, and wierdalex, i.e., the people I suspect/people I feel might have a strong connection to WormyKrew (or are WormyKrew). jilynne isn't worth isoing. I might iso other people, too, if I feel the need.

Don't expect posts to go with all those isos though, unless I find some good connections.

[Alduskkel]

Oh, and until those isos are done I won't be voting. Just saying this since Mastin was getting on my case for not having voted yet today.

[mastin2]

I'm going to refrain from responding. It'd just be a lot of "and this is why you're scum, this is further reason to keep my vote on you, you have no idea how scummy this line coming from you is," etc. I'm a bit sick right now, so I'm not exactly coherent enough to explain why.

(Though, that said, even if I was, it'd be a wall.

Read "Mastin's Guide To Playing Well*". It's buried in MD somewhere, and might be on the wiki, too.)

*Said Guide outlines the importance of Voting, for instance. And outlines why constant walls kill towns.
(There's a reason I hate walls: I've seen their negative effect on all Mafia Game forums I've played. They've consistently made the game less fun for other people, and that's the main reason I've been trying my best to get rid of them.)

[wierdalexv]

Back from LA.

Anyways, WALLS ARE BACK.

:sarcastic happiness:

And outlines why constant walls kill towns.

*looks at your meta and snickers, despite still wanting you to post your thoughts*

Anyways, if anyone has any questions for me I will answer them.

[DarthYoshi]

I had this nice long post of reasoned brilliance written out, and then the f-ing internetz ate it. Here is the Cliffs Notes version.

@Alex: Your passivity ("I'll answer any questions") without commenting on, say, your wagon, or TWIE's growing wagon, or the Ald-Mastin-me triangle of frustration screams scum.

@Mastin: FTR, what Ald is saying about you agreeing with a scumread is what I have been saying all along as well. We were in lockstep on WK being scum and on Ald being scum. But you still think I'm scum. WTF?

@Ald: If you're not going to vote and not going to give us a suspect list in lieu of a vote, then you are not looking a whole lot more townish than you were D1.

@Soben: That's a fair point re: why WK might have claimed VT, but it does not mean that TWIE's wagon was not scum-driven, a scum may have been on it as well to try to further divide the town in the hopes of creating a compromise lynch/no-lynch.

Also,

mod, this is my formal request that brokenscraps be forcibly replaced. He is the only player to have not posted since D2 started, and this plus his significant stretches of D1 inactivity after replacing in makes me think that he isn't actually committed to the game.

On a similar note, more Elsa sure would be nice. I've seen her online and not posting. No likey.

[Substrike22]

Also,

mod, this is my formal request that brokenscraps be forcibly replaced. He is the only player to have not posted since D2 started, and this plus his significant stretches of D1 inactivity after replacing in makes me think that he isn't actually committed to the game.

On a similar note, more Elsa sure would be nice. I've seen her online and not posting. No likey.

Prodding Brokenscraps, giving him 24 hours to pick it up or I'll replace him. It was my fault for not sending the prod on time, I missed his name in the activity overview. This is his 2nd prod so after one more, he'll be replaced regardless.

[Elsa von Spielburg]

I'm still in favor of Alex/CC getting offed as soon as possible. CC dropping one of those "oh right, gotta catch up" posts is lurking at it's finest. His case and scumbuddy both got blown up yesterday and now he's got nothing to work with. Alex, on the other hand, seems passive and his tone has completely shifted from offense to defense.

I said ti already, but I'll say it again: I think it's odd that both alex and Soben are going after TWIE even after WK-scum's lynch. Instead of changing their thinking and trying to see who was associated with WK to piece together his partners, they're justifying their play from yesterday by saying "bussing!" and continuing the TWIE's wagon? I know some have explained why TWIE-scum is a possibility, but I just don't see it. The only thing keeping me from going after them harder is the fact that TWIE's activity has dropped off considerably so far, and as such, makes my brain itch. Don't like it.

[mastin2]

I don't think I need to Defend Elsa anymore, since that above post pretty much confirmed her once and for all 100% as town.

[Soben]

Elsa, don't get me wrong the WK scum flip certaintly has changed my reads to a degree and forced me to stand back and rethink a lot of things, the upmost being a growing town-read on you however bussing implies a push towards the other player, this didn't occur at all. Reading back through the thread TWIE avoided the WK wagon whenever possible and didn't vote him even to prevent his own lynch from occuring. WK held of voting TWIE throughout a large portion of the day as well and only voted at the end with a very weak attempt to prevent himself being lynched. TWIE's continued absence and refrainment from posting anything ressembling content continues to strength the constant scum read we've had on him.

[Captain Corporal]

I don't really see how Elsa is "100% town". Honestly, she's still my top scumread. Can someone please explain?

Brokenscaps would have to be second in line for scummyest. His posts on D1, coupled with his lurking = scum.

[Ironhead]

I don't really see how Elsa is "100% town". Honestly, she's still my top scumread. Can someone please explain?

I agree that she is definitely not 100% town (though she is not my top scum-read). I think mastin2 is being far too generous and trusting in identifying people as conf-town and/or obv-town. Elsa has acquitted herself well enough to argue against her lynch today, but there is no reason for us to assume that she should not be lynched in the future.

[wierdalexv]

I'm getting really, really sick of Mastin not explaining anything. I don't really get what makes TheWayItEnds so town from WormyKrew's flip, and he's still my #1 suspect. Brokenscraps may be having my vote if he doesn't have a pretty dang good catch-up post soon.

Anyways, I don't see Aldusskel or DarthYoshi being scum. The cases aren't very convincing. I completely agree with Ironhead's post above that you are just tossing out 'confirmed town' like most people do with null-town reads. I'd like some actual reasoning as for why I shouldn't be suspecting them.

Soben is still my top town-read, just based off of content and logical thinking.

[DarthYoshi]

@Elsa: Can you rank Alex and CC in terms of scumminess for you, and why?

Soben's #995 is actually a fairly damning point about TWIE. I know this because in a scumgame I was in recently, two of us were wagoned up D1, and our third buddy was caught because he didn't hop wagons to keep one of us from getting lynched. I may be changing my vote soon, I need to think about this some more.

Alex's #998, however, continues the trend of no proactive material coming from him, and still makes him a tempting lynch target. I also maintain that his flip will solidify our reads on Elsa quite handily.

Current suspect list, for those keeping track at home, in order of scumminess:
Alex
TWIE
Alduskkel