Mini 1180: Game Over

[mastin2]

Whoah.
Wall City.

I shoulda named my QT this game that.

Addressing both Twisted and Yoshi: I fail to see how you haven't realized that I HAVE answered the questions you've brought up.

Things which do need addressing, though.


First off.

Stop wasting time on the smaller wagons.

Things like Captain suspicion need to die.
Quickly.

It's not happening today. Most people with more than half a brain are realizing that Gerhard was town, and therefore Captain was town, with Captain's continued actions bleeding town.

And even those who don't have Captain as town, who have him as null or weak scum, realize that there will never be enough support for a lynch on him. Nor SHOULD there be.

And that's not the only ones.
While I respect the Elsa/TWIE viewpoint...

We'd need to decide on ONE name between them to lynch.

But...

Those wagons shouldn't be happening at all.

Not only for lack of support, but additionally, because...

Ald and Yoshi containing one scum is easily provable,

and believed by multiple players

.

(The way it is provable is in MULTIPLE ways. These ways have been evident throughout the days. Their Interactions not being townVtown, their votes at the end of the day, them both being in WormyKrew's town list...)

Yoshi (with Ald being the other, obviously), myself, Twisted, at the very minimum. (

So probably scum in
{DarthYoshi; jilynne1991; Alduskkel}
Hm...changes a bit. With the jilynne-townslip, that means one of DarthYoshi and Alduskkel is probably scum, most likely Alduskkel; have you noticed the way that WK called him town and then [literally, I looked through ISO] never brought him up again?

Him, too!)
Additionally,

It has the highest statistical percentage for finding scum.

If that wasn't enough for you, well, then, let's get some more facts out there.

"But Ald is V/LA! Wagoning him is pointless!"

Having just come from a game where a Scum player was V/LA and the town decided not to lynch said player due to V/LA, excuse me for taking this quite emotionally, but...

SCREW V/LA!

V/LA is NOT an excuse to

ignore

a player!

/End my LargeFontSize Rant.


And with that out of my system...

I don't see why people think he's so obvious town.

If more people than just you felt this way, I'd explain it to you.
But ironically enough, this is the exact same feeling I've been having with Soben.

and why do you assume I'm sheeping just because I reached one similar conclusion????

Look at the post closely. (I thought this was obvious enough already.) I don't. I concluded either you were scum

sheeping

me,
Or you were town.

In other words, you'd only be sheeping me if you were scum. Otherwise, you are town.

Why weren't you NKed, then, since you list yourself as a better NK than SP? This is a relevant question since most of your case on Soben revolves around NK WIFOM.

1: I asked myself the same thing.
"Why was the number three person killed, when there were two people looking more pro-town than them?" Right now. I've got a lot of questions. But no answers to give. I simply don't know. That's why further investigation is required.

2: That's really not the case at all. The case doesn't revolve pretty much at all around Soben having lived through the night. It's simply what sparked the thought. It's what got the idea started in my head, but not the foundation of the idea.

Potentially, yes. I agree it does sound like Alex did not know WK's alignment.

And this doesn't set off alarms to you...how? Alex not having known WK's alignment-->Alex is town-->All the suspicion on him would therefore be of extreme interest-->I don't see that from you.

The big reason I think TWIE should go before Ald is Soben's argument explaining WK's VT claim--that it was to save TWIE's ass.

I thought this in another game.
Not this EXACTLY,

But something similar.

I was wrong.

However, my thought of "the counterwagon to a scum wagon is NOT scum" proved RIGHT in said game.

I find this CC unusual for voting me with a poor, unjustified reason and I think Mastin's protection of him (why does mastin not suspect CC again) may have made him bolder/more reckless

And...this is a scumtell...
...How?

It's null at WORST. If anything, it's a town-tell.



Now, you might be thinking, "...Mastin. What about the OTHER stuff you haven't answered?"
Only, I have. If you pay attention to my posts. I didn't feel like quoting them, and tracking down my answers in my own ISO, but they're there if you look for them.

If you'll excuse me. I haven't worked on my Notes for a while. I think it's about time I Did.

[Twistedspoon]

big text doesn't make me any more a happy camper

you still need to explain how Soben isn't confirmed town after post #426 and krew buddying which I brought up. sigh

also, justify your CC town read

[mastin2]

I did that already.
Multiple times.
When I addressed that I hadn't done a reread of the thread.
Which therefore automatically addresses your point about something in the middle of said thread.

Really, you need to learn how to read that my answers aren't always that direct, but can be figured out via proxy. This was quite obvious to me, that a point about something in the middle of the thread, was already covered by "I haven't reread".

The CC read is kinda hard for me to just on the spot say, "this is what makes him town", since it's BLEEDING off of his posts. It'd be easier for me to point out what ISN'T town, rather than the MASSIVE list of what IS.

[Twistedspoon]

The CC read is kinda hard for me to just on the spot say, "this is what makes him town", since it's BLEEDING off of his posts. It'd be easier for me to point out what ISN'T town, rather than the MASSIVE list of what IS.

he's always like that. That's my theory

anyways, guide me to your answer to my Soben theory

[Soben]

I agree that all of the smaller wagons need to die right now because the amount of undirected focus isn't helping us at all. In regards to the night kill I can think of multiple reasons that may explain the death including mafia fearing shooting towards us would incriminate them, believing that leaving us alive may lead to us mslynching, believing our defence of Sleepy yesterday would lead to our lynch, believing it's likely doctor was on us, believing Sleepy was more likely a PR then us and many more. Which one is the case I'm currently unsure however delving into and spending time on it is pointless and unproductive at the current moment.

I thought this in another game. Not this EXACTLY, But something similar. I was wrong. However, my thought of "the counterwagon to a scum wagon is NOT scum" proved RIGHT in said game.

Logic dictates that a counterwagon doesn't have any increased likelihood to be town if it's pushed by town and not scum involved. Wormys lack of participation towards the TWIE wagon means that TWIE isn't any more likely to be town with Wormys flip it's rather the opposite. I cannot understand how you're willing to rule this out and forget it because one game in the past didn't have two scum leading wagons. You're essentially saying X didn't happen in game Y therefore X cannot be occuring in game Z. You claim to have responded towards your town read on TWIE but you haven't at all, you've attempted to cover it up with illogical garbage rather than any form of solid reasoning.

Alex has repeatly town-told recently, his misread of Twisteds quote is completely understandable and geninue and I don't see him mistaking it's content as scum especially with the amount of attention drawn towards him as there currently is. I had a conversation with Scumhunter about it (Not really a conversation, more of a QT discussion) and he agrees with the read as well. Oddly enough my leading two suspects are both TWIE and Aludskkel however Alduskkel is mostly due to PoE rather than anything else making me much more comfortable maintaining my vote on TWIE. I'm out for the rest of today however I want to see more content from Captain and Jilllyn badly.

[mastin2]

Logic dictates that a counterwagon doesn't have any increased likelihood to be town if it's pushed by town and not scum involved.

You're forgetting. There were five names involved in the counterwagon.
One was WormyKrew.
One was SecretProject.
The other three?

Alex, Iron, and yourself.

There WAS scum there. More than one, in fact.

Unless you have a magical town-read on Alex which I haven't seen from you.

Oh, right, you're saying that in the below paragraph.

I cannot understand how you're willing to rule this out and forget it because one game in the past didn't have two scum leading wagons.

It's not just one game. I've seen it in COUNTLESS games. Heck, this theory isn't even mine, originally. I saw it (forget where), and borrowed it because I realized the logic behind it was solid and right. It has yet to fail me.

It's beyond a Mastin Logic tell. It's "Common Effing Sense"-tell. (There are two exceptions. 1: SK wagons. 2: Multi-faction games. Short of those, it simply doesn't happen.)

You claim to have responded towards your town read on TWIE but you haven't at all, you've attempted to cover it up with illogical garbage rather than any form of solid reasoning.

This.
Lines.
Like.
This.

Are why.

My townread.

Vanished.

There's also the fact that Soben is voting TWIE above Ald.

TWIE's chances of being scum? (To me, 0%.) No more than 40%.
Ald's chances of being scum? No LESS than 50%.

See the difference?

I'll continue Protecting TWIE To the End.

[DarthYoshi]

VOTE: TWIE

1) I'm trusting yoshi. Apparently there's no scumhunting in the Iso and Yoshi can't lie about what's visible to everyone
2) I still need to read up on him
3) Ald is V/LA. Vote on him is pointless

*snip*

@yoshi: I didn't understand it in my read up, but now I understand your mastin frustrations. I hear you bro :p

While I am glad for another TWIE vote, #3 in particular is not a good reason--I actually agree with Mastin on this one. #2 isn't great either, but at least your vote on him might spark more information. It's nice that you think I'm town, but you should also take everything I say with the appropriate amount of skepticism until I die and am confirmed town.

BTW, am relishing the irony of you dinging Ald for buddying me.

Okay, @Mastin:

First, stop using big text. It's annoying, and it just makes you come across, frankly, like a pissed-off jerk.

Addressing both Twisted and Yoshi: I fail to see how you haven't realized that I HAVE answered the questions you've brought up.

This is patently a non-answer, and one I can EASILY see scum giving.

FoS: Mastin.

While I respect the Elsa/TWIE viewpoint...
We'd need to decide on ONE name between them to lynch.
But...
Those wagons shouldn't be happening at all.
Not only for lack of support, but additionally, because...

Whut? TWIE wagon shouldn't be happening due to a lack of support? What are you smokin'?

Ald and Yoshi containing one scum is easily provable, and believed by multiple players.

^Fallacy of appealing to the majority, and actually is not provable without lynching us both. Fail, Mastin.

And this doesn't set off alarms to you...how? Alex not having known WK's alignment-->Alex is town-->All the suspicion on him would therefore be of extreme interest-->I don't see that from you.

Dude...did you miss where I changed my vote off of Alex? Or that I moved it onto a player who DID suspect Alex (TWIE had his vig vote on Alex at the end of D1)?

Honestly Mastin, I'm about to give up trying to defend myself to you. I am convinced that you have completely persuaded yourself that I am scum and that NOTHING short of mislynching me will prove that to you. So if you want to lead the charge to lynch me, be my guest. I will continue to defend myself vigorously against other votes on me.

I thought this in another game.
Not this EXACTLY,

But something similar.

I was wrong.

However, my thought of "the counterwagon to a scum wagon is NOT scum" proved RIGHT in said game.

Except that there is no explanation for why WK would have done something so suboptimal as to claim VT on D1 as scum (again, WIFOM aside, and that may be why, but I doubt it). You tell me why WK claimed VT?

PEdit: No. Just. No.

[Soben]

It's not just one game. I've seen it in COUNTLESS games. Heck, this theory isn't even mine, originally. I saw it (forget where), and borrowed it because I realized the logic behind it was solid and right. It has yet to fail me. It's beyond a Mastin Logic tell. It's "Common Effing Sense"-tell. (There are two exceptions. 1: SK wagons. 2: Multi-faction games. Short of those, it simply doesn't happen.)

Alright, if it's happened in countless games please provides links to the occurances. Secondly I want you to answer the following question for me: If a player were to suspect person 1 and 2 with person 1 flipping mafia does that mean person 2 is any less likely to be mafia then say person 3 and 4? Simpl yes or no will suffice.

There's also the fact that Soben is voting TWIE above Ald. TWIE's chances of being scum? (To me, 0%.) No more than 40%. Ald's chances of being scum? No LESS than 50%. See the difference? I'll continue Protecting TWIE To the End.

I don't agree that one of Yoshi and Alduskkel HAVE to be mafia. I infact have a strong town-read on Yoshi as does Scumhunter and believe it's possible the second scum could be outside of Alduskkel. Furthermore where do you draw that TWIE cannot be more than 40% mafia, you're making up statistics and then attempting to force your pathetic reads down our throats while ignoring all of the points brought up over and over against him.

[Twistedspoon]

I give up asking mastin. Soben's obvtown and he'll see that for himself eventually and it's not like his lynch will occur today

CC i'd like to hear from

[DarthYoshi]

Also, FTR, I don't think TWIE actually has a D2 vote out, which should be even more damning that having a vote on Alex atm.

[mastin2]

^Fallacy of appealing to the majority, and actually is not provable without lynching us both.

Doubly wrong. It's not appealing to the majority. It's pointing out how multiple people believe it to be so, and therefore, it has a LOT of support. (Did I mention I've had scum use this exact fallacy against me recently? I was right--they were scum, and their 'fallacy' proved to be quite false.) AT LEAST four players have gotten behind the Yoshi/Ald containing one scum. Yourself included, with the scum between you being Ald, obviously.

And the part about it not being provable?

I GAVE THE FREAKIN' REASONS IN THAT POST. Interactions NOT being townVtown, the fact that you both appear in WormyKrew's town-list (with the other two being Jily and Secret), the votes at the end of the day.

THESE ARE

ALL

TIES WHICH SUPPORT THIS CONCLUSION.

Alright, if it's happened in countless games please provides links to the occurances.

None off the top of my head, of course, since this is just things I've observed over countless games. It's very easy to prove, but I'll need to track down examples.

Heck, just for you, I'll limit it to Mini Normals.

Not right now, of course. This will take a few hours minimum to do.

If a player were to suspect person 1 and 2 with person 1 flipping mafia does that mean person 2 is any less likely to be mafia then say person 3 and 4?

I am not a moron. I know exactly what you're leading this up to.
If two players are wagoned, and one flips scum, then the other is town.
^This is what I'm trying to prove.
If two players are suspected, and one flips scum, then the other is town.
^What you're about to twist the argument into.

No, thank you.

Furthermore where do you draw that TWIE cannot be more than 40% mafia, you're making up statistics and then attempting to force your pathetic reads down our throats while ignoring all of the points brought up over and over against him.

And it's lines like this.

Reinforcing it.


I dunno about you.

But to me, quite frankly, it seems like Soben's posts have changed tone not once, but now twice.

On day one, it seemed like Soben was playing a little conservatively.
On day two, it seemed like Soben had quite frankly become arrogant.
After I revealed my Soben suspicion, said arrogance has become condescendance.

[mastin2]

And this is all just one giant distraction, since I've once more been Neglecting my Notes.

[Soben]

None off the top of my head, of course, since this is just things I've observed over countless games. It's very easy to prove, but I'll need to track down examples. Heck, just for you, I'll limit it to Mini Normals. Not right now, of course. This will take a few hours minimum to do.

Thanks, this should make for an interesting read.

If two players are wagoned, and one flips scum, then the other is town. This is what I'm trying to prove. If two players are suspected, and one flips scum, then the other is town. What you're about to twist the argument into.

You're missing the point completely, the only difference between suspecting two players and two players being wagoned that could change the effect is the actions that mafia took during the wagon, to prove that you believe TWIE is town due to the counter wagon you have to prove that it was indeed scum that pushed it therefore you have to show that the players pushing it are scum.

Instead of doing this you're attempting to use circular logic and saying that TWIE is town because scum pushed it and the players who pushed it are scum because TWIE is town.

But to me, quite frankly, it seems like Soben's posts have changed tone not once, but now twice. On day one, it seemed like Soben was playing a little conservatively. On day two, it seemed like Soben had quite frankly become arrogant. After I revealed my Soben suspicion, said arrogance has become condescendance.

Firstly how do you believe a change in attitude is allignment related? Secondly the reasoning behind my change in attitude should be incredibly obvious, it's caused by your complete lack of logic and your insistance that your reads are correct while not properly responding to anything else put forward.

[DarthYoshi]

^Fallacy of appealing to the majority, and actually is not provable without lynching us both.

Doubly wrong. It's not appealing to the majority.

It's pointing out how multiple people believe it to be so, and therefore, it has a LOT of support.

(Did I mention I've had scum use this exact fallacy against me recently? I was right--they were scum, and their 'fallacy' proved to be quite false.)

AT LEAST four players have gotten behind the Yoshi/Ald containing one scum. Yourself included, with the scum between you being Ald, obviously.

Bolded emphasis mine. Again, this is appealing to the majority. If multiple people believe it be so, it must be so? Come on, Mastin.

I want a link to this instance you were referring to.

Italics emphasis also mine. I see where you're going with this. Yes, I am behind the Yoshi/Ald prob contains one scum by default because I'm one of those two players. Of course I'm going to say if there is scum between us, it's Ald, because I know I'm town. However, that does not make your hypothesis provable.

I GAVE THE FREAKIN' REASONS IN THAT POST. Interactions NOT being townVtown, the fact that you both appear in WormyKrew's town-list (with the other two being Jily and Secret), the votes at the end of the day.

This is NOT an accurate depiction of the past AT ALL. Mastin, starting as early as your ISO #69, still in the middle of D1, you were suggesting that the interactions between me/Ald suggested scumminess or otherwise scummy connections. Your belief ABSOLUTELY began on the basis of interactions, do NOT pretend otherwise.

[Soben]

Mastin, Regfan has been making most of the posts lately and he can come off a bit arrogant at times. I have a feeling it could be a non-alignment correlation to his repressed homosexuality but I'm not sure how this has relevance to the game.

As for fosing us because we appear too town and didn't die n1, LOL, sorry I guess? You need to take your paranoid glasses off although I don't blame you for putting them on for a bit. R and I are having a hard time coming up with multiple strong scumreads as well so ya I hear you.

[Soben]

Talk to me, I'm the PR-side of the hydra here

[Soben]

To reinforce not to read too much into the tone of some of our posts, what I would say is, just think: I (Scumhunter) had a strong scum read on WK (my strongest actually) but when R subbed in to hydra with me, my voice on that kind of got drowned out not only in the QT but also in our posts in-thread. "Our" first read post on WK had him as town...And I'm not really one to easily get drowned out usually. I'm saying this not as a criticism of you Regfan, its more just to try and explain how strong your opinion can be...

[Soben]

Oh, but still Mastin, you should look into TWIE more.

^^

[Scumhunter]

Oh and by "PR" I mean public relations!

[Soben]

rageragerageragerage, im just making the double posting worse but yea obviously wrong account above.

[mastin2]

Spoiler: Soben

You're missing the point completely, the only difference between suspecting two players and two players being wagoned that could change the effect is the actions that mafia took during the wagon, to prove that you believe TWIE is town due to the counter wagon you have to prove that it was indeed scum that pushed it therefore you have to show that the players pushing it are scum.

Uh. My reads.

TheWayItEnds 4 (L-3)

Soben

, Brokenscraps,

Wiredalexv

, Ironhead,
WormyKrew 4 (L-3)

Mastin2, jilynne1991

, Alduskkel,

Secret Project

,

You. And Alex. Both on. TWIE.

Instead of doing this you're attempting to use circular logic and saying that TWIE is town because scum pushed it and the players who pushed it are scum because TWIE is town.

Not quite.

TWIE is town, because of being a counter-wagon, most likely driven by scum.

You're scum, for a lot of reasons. Pushing TWIE is among them, sure, but it is not the driving force.

Firstly how do you believe a change in attitude is allignment related?

Overnight? That should be obvious. You thought that you'd be getting a free pass to endgame.
I see no reason for the tone to have changed overnight (at least, in this manner) as town. I see it as scum, though.

Secondly the reasoning behind my change in attitude should be incredibly obvious, it's caused by your complete lack of logic and your insistance that your reads are correct while not properly responding to anything else put forward.

This is just who I am. I have trouble explaining my reads. I can explain my Reasons, sure. The "Why" for those reasons, on the other hand, is...somewhat tricky. It's difficult concepts to explain.
I realize Scumhunter has not seen me before (presumably), but I know for a fact Regfan has.

And knows this about me already. That I know what I'm talking about, that I know I'm onto something, that I know I'm right, that TWIE is a Moronic Mislynch, that {Ald, Yoshi} contains one scum, that I suck at convincing people, but am right, that people will regret not listening to me.

These are things which Regfan has seen in most (if not all) the games with me.

As for fosing us because we appear too town and didn't die n1, LOL, sorry I guess? You need to take your paranoid glasses off although I don't blame you for putting them on for a bit. R and I are having a hard time coming up with multiple strong scumreads as well so ya I hear you.

Nope, not just one head of you.
Since THIS post has that EXACT same tone.

And now, Yoshi.

Bolded emphasis mine. Again, this is appealing to the majority. If multiple people believe it be so, it must be so? Come on, Mastin.

You're twisting the argument, Yoshi. Support != Truth. I'm talking about Support for a Lynch. Not Truth of the Claim.

[REDACTED]

However, that does not make your hypothesis provable.

And I never argued that the support for it could prove it true. Just that the Support for it shows evidence that a lot of people believe it and are willing to follow through on it. (IE, a lynch on Ald is extremely doable.)

What makes it provable are exactly the things I've been arguing. Your interaction with Ald was not townVtown, you two both appeared on WormyKrew's town-list, and the votes at the end of the day.

Those

are what makes it provable.

This is NOT an accurate depiction of the past AT ALL. Mastin, starting as early as your ISO #69, still in the middle of D1, you were suggesting that the interactions between me/Ald suggested scumminess or otherwise scummy connections. Your belief ABSOLUTELY began on the basis of interactions, do NOT pretend otherwise.

Uh, Yoshi? That's exactly what I said. That it WAS interactions--specifically, that the interaction was NOT townVtown.
And since then, more evidence other than interactions has augmented it.

Of COURSE my belief came from interactions. I'm embracing that, openly stating it and will maintain it is true because--quite frankly--it is. You're seriously misreading that post if you think I was saying "I didn't say it was interactions", since I was rather specifically saying it WAS interactions.

[mastin2]

Now, can I please get back to Notes? Too many Distractions...

[Soben]

Mastin, double wagons on scum can happen d1. In fact it has aleady happened in one of my games on here. I'd like to submit into evidence this game: http://mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=17230

Now that I have proven double wagons on scum can happen, do you see how your whole reasoning that "there must be scum on the TWIE wagon" is based on a faulty premise?

Nothing about Wormy's flip makes TWIE necessarily anything as they had very little interaction. If anything the fact that Wormy never pushed on TWIE hard despite TWIE being the other viable lynch option yesterday doesn't make me think TWIE is town whatsoever...

Is there a reason you think we are scum other than voting TWIE?

[mastin2]

For that single link, I bet you I can find a hundred links to counter it. Or can look into the specific incident and see how unusual it is. (Obviously, there are always going to be special situations in which things aren't normal. But said situations are exceptions to the norm and generally have a darn-good reason things played out that way.)

"Never" might be a bit of an exaggeration, but I will spend the time to prove to you how counterwagons to a scum lynch wagon...aren't scum. I know I can do it, because it's something I've observed everywhere.


As for you. There are plenty of reasons for thinking you're scum. I've been trying to get around to them, but you've consistently been distracting me.


...Speaking of which.
Time to begin following my own advice:

Ignoring my scumreads unless my town-reads are being convinced by them.

(Mastin's Guide To Playing Well. It's one of the tips in there.)

(I really Regret having such a strong Soben Townread...)

[Soben]

Ok, I eagerly await your case on us then. I don't doubt that "counterwagons" are more often on town. Well hell, most players in the game are town and if there is a wagon on one scum already, the odds are overwhelming (via random distribution even!) that the other wagon is on town. Assuming 2 scum of the 12 players possible for the counterwagon that makes a counterwagon on town 5/6 of the time. What I'm trying to say is you have no logic or no proof whatsoever that TWIE has to be ANYTHING. You are basing who to fos based on a faulty assumption.

Friendly advice that you can or cannot take: You might want to take your blinders off of the counterwagon must be "scum-driven on a townie" idea and start thinking outside the box and more along the lines of the individual situation that is this game. In this game, WK flipped scum, so now what? Basing your reads and what to do next on rote tactics based on common situations is pretty shallow and takes out the human interaction part of the game, you know the part where you get reads on other actual human beings playing the game as opposed to reads on the situation. K enough distraction, do your worst to us.