Nintendo Mafia (Game Over)

[lewarcher82]

The fact that no quickhammer is taking place is further evidence, since we are in possible-lylo. 8 hours have passed since my last post, no defense from PatB. This is more than enough.

@whoever-proposed-a-massclaim: no. not today. Let scum be tortured by the doubt: "is esurio really 2-shot?" further claims and further discussion will only help scum plan the night.

In fact, I am not against cutting the day short.

[Pinky and the Brain]

Well, obviously I was wrong about scum not having two roleblocking roles.


VOTE: Looker

Looker and esurio are scum.

Lynch on either one plzkthxbai.

Oops hydra-fail.


There is no reason to mass-claim because we have two scum lined up nicely for us to power-lynch.

PATB should be our lynch today.
It doesn't matter if he helped us, we still have his information and we can use it if he flips town (which he probably won't).

Or, just as an alternative that you might want to consider, we can power-lynch the two scum I caught instead of discussing my lynch like absolute idiots.

TMH: man after esurio's claim opposing patb's lynch is ridiculous. If esurio aint no vig, who is? I take it you are not, right? Who's missing? kdub? looker?

this is not about the 1 vs 1 or other half-compelling cases that could be explained easily with a scum joat or stuff like that. This is a table of truth. Extremely easy, as far as I see.

@PatB: is it possible that you are sensor and esurio AND looker are not both scum? Answer!

Don't worry, they're scum.

Town obviously has a shitload of power about, and therefore it's common sense that scum would probaby likewise have a shitload of power.

Thinking about it, there's actually very likely to be a third scum left not on the wagon, given we have at least:

Cop
1-Shot Flavour Cop
Tracker
Doc
Even Night Sensor


Leading me to conclude: Mafia Goon + Mafia Doc + Mafia Roleblocker + Mafia Jailkeeper(?) + Mafia Vig.


This would leave three scum alive, which would make it mylo if I am town.

And believe me, I am town.

So don't be idiots and lynch me, paticularly when I have given the scum to town on a FUCKING SILVER PLATTER.

Really, you just have to look at the backup mods - Reck and Dram, famed for swingy setups, and clearly this is one fucking swingy setup.


Why would scum-PatB kill thil or GW when both were on the wagon for my 'fake-claim'?

It's clearly a ploy from scum to frame me and push me for the mislynch, safe in the knowledge that even if I'm not mislynched they have a townie sitting nice and safe off the Tragedy wagon.

If you are voting me and you are town, you need to unvote me now.

Either way, I have a shitload of reading to do before I place a vote.

Derp.

Thanks for the scum-claim.

[Kdub]

Leading me to conclude: Mafia Goon + Mafia Doc + Mafia Roleblocker + Mafia Jailkeeper(?) + Mafia Vig.

Mafia vig? I'm gonna have to hear the details on this one

Why would scum-PatB kill thil or GW when both were on the wagon for my 'fake-claim'?

Because GW was a power role, and you didn't count on thil dying last night.

Also, your post has no mention of esurio's vig claim, which is the one thing that proves you are a liar.

[lewarcher82]

mafia-vig is hilarious. Really. Especially if we compare the jumpy cluelessness of this last post of yours with the generally clever posts you used to do til day 5.
Without esurio's claim I would still think you were town.

vote: PatB

L-1.

[The Master Hand]

ready to hammer whenever, unless ya'al want to discuss.

[Bunnylover]

Don't think much discussion will be happening today.
Going to hammer in a few hours unless I hear otherwise from this thread.

[Hoppster]

Going to hammer in a few hours unless I hear otherwise from this thread.

Here's otherwise:

UNVOTE:
VOTE: Pinky and the Brain

I HATE YOU ALL

PATICULARLY BUNNYLOVER AND LOOKER

MAINLY BUNNYLOVER

THAT IS ALL


Love,
Hoppster

xxxx

[Pinky and the Brain]

Ahem.

Going to hammer in a few hours unless I hear otherwise from this thread.

Here's otherwise:

UNVOTE:
VOTE: Pinky and the Brain

I HATE YOU ALL

PATICULARLY BUNNYLOVER AND LOOKER

MAINLY BUNNYLOVER

THAT IS ALL


Love,
Hoppster

xxxx

[jmj3000]

A lynch has been reached. Scene incoming.

[jmj3000]

Official Vote Count

Players needed to lynch: 4

Pinky and the Brain

- 4 - esuriospiritus, Kdub, lewarcher82, Pinky and the Brain - (L-0)

Players not voting: Bunnylover, Looker, The Master Hand

Flavor to come some time during the night.

Pinky and the Brain, Aurora Unit 313, Mafia Encryptor

, has been recycled Day 6. It is now night, and it will end July 2nd at 5:00 PM EDT.. Send all night actions to me and Reckamonic.

[jmj3000]

Thread unlocking on about 5 minutes.

[jmj3000]

Even more flavor owed.

BunnyLover, Donkey Kong, Vanilla Townie

,

was found incinerated with energy burns all around their body Night 6.

It is now Day 7. Deadline is July 17th at 2:30 AM EDT.

(expired on 2011-07-17 02:30:00)

[Kdub]

What the hell? Killing Bunny makes no sense. Something is up here.

I've been tossing around a theory in my head, but I think me, TMH, and Looker should claim. I suggest esurio pick which one of us claims first, and we popcorn it from there?

[lewarcher82]

What the hell? Killing Bunny makes no sense. Something is up here.

quite so. And may mean two things, either wifom or an attempt at framing someone. Two options are quite clear in my mind but I will only out them after:

I've been tossing around a theory in my head, but I think me, TMH, and Looker should claim. I suggest esurio pick which one of us claims first, and we popcorn it from there?

... the massclaim is complete.

Also: likelihood of lylo is high enough for me to suggest everyone not to cast early votes this day. If it is in fact lylo, a townie voting a townie may result in a quick game over. Sorry for stating the obvious... after a recent experience I prefere to do it.

[esuriospiritus]

TMH claims first.

[The Master Hand]

Pokey, Vanilla Townie

[lewarcher82]

pick next please

[The Master Hand]

pick next please

sry. Popcorn to Looker

[Looker]

• I'm Prince Fluff, Vanilla Townie
  
• And what do you mean as far as killing Bunny making no sense?
  
• Kdub, I guess you're last.

[Kdub]

I am Daisy, Vanilla Townie.

And what do you mean as far as killing Bunny making no sense?

It makes no sense for two reasons:
1) esurio is confirmed town, Bunny was not.
2) Bunny had claimed VT while the rest of us hadn't claimed yet.
If you had asked me during night which player would be the least likely nightkill, it definitely would have been Bunny (even leaving aside the possibility that he was scum). The only thing I can think of is that the scum might have suspected BL was playing a gambit and lying about being a VT.

Anyway, here's what the setup might be:
Town: Doc, cop, JoaT, tracker, 2-shot vig, 1-shot flavor cop, 9x VT
Mafia: Doc, encryptor, roleblocker, goon
SK: One-shot BP

If you ask me, that setup seems town-favored. Town has 3 investigative roles (4 if Dekes had one) and a doc.

In terms of scumminess, TMH is definitely at the top of the list for me. His reaction to dana's lynch looked fake, and he tried to defend PatB yesterday until it was clear that nobody else was siding with him. Based on player reads alone, he is my top choice for scum and it's not really close.

However, one thing that bothered me was how strongly certain people were pushing for weirdalexv's lynch on D5, in spite of the 1v1. Obviously scum would want this, because they wanted to 1v1 to extend to the next day if possible, when they could then swing a thil lynch, which would have been quite easy. What they didn't expect, however, was that thil would get vigged that night. Take a look at D5, and you see that PatB (scum), TMH, and lew were strongly pushing for alex's lynch. Why? I didn't find the case on alex particularly convincing, but even if you did, was it strong enough to convince you to put off a 1v1?

Also, remember this post, where lew pegs alex's role. Coincidence?

Also, remember GW tracked lew to thil on the night thil claimed to have been roleblocked.

Also, lew's claimed role seems out of place when you look at the potential setup I posted above. One-shot flavor-cop when town already has a full cop and tracker? Why make a weaker role one-shot while having an unlimited role that is stronger (cop)? I might be able to buy a one-shot cop + full flavor-cop in the setup, but the opposite? And lew's claim of finding a crystal ball on thil still doesn't sit well with me. Given that scum safeclaims appear to be related flavor-wise to their actual role (Dark Samus - Samus, AU 313 - AU 242), that role can't possibly catch scum unless they deviate from their safeclaims.

So here's my theory. I propose that lew is the mafia roleblocker, and TMH is a mafia role cop. Balance-wise, it makes the setup look like this:
Town: Doc, cop, JoaT, tracker, 2-shot vig, 9x VT
Mafia: Doc, encryptor, roleblocker, role cop, goon
SK: One-shot BP

That looks more balanced to me. Also, it explains why PatB, lew, and TMH were so adamant about lynching alex on D5 instead of thil: because they had investigated alex on an earlier night and found that he was the SK, so they wanted to eliminate him since he was likely their biggest threat at the time. That, plus the fact that they didn't want to resolve the 1v1 yet, otherwise PatB would have been revealed as scum. Thanks to esurio's shot, that happened anyway. It also explains how lew was able to call alex's role name as Dark Samus, even though we didn't know yet that the scum safeclaims were closely tied to their actual role names.

I am still thinking about exactly who to lynch today. I admit that I have basically no read on Looker due to the replacement history of that player slot and his play so far. If my theory is wrong and there is only one scum left, we still have tomorrow so it probably doesn't matter. If I am right that there are two scum left but it is not TMH and lew, then what is a less likely scumteam: TMH+Looker or lew+Looker?

[The Master Hand]

You know that whole SK thing? It was better regardless of allignment because it meant one less kill.

You know that whole 1 v1 thing? Thil would have lost hands down, because no one here saw him as more town then Patb

You know that whole "siding with Patb" thing? It still doesn't make sense why he would claim being roleblocked. It didn't make sense. As such, I thought testing his claim was a better idea

OH, and thil flipped cop. Just saying.

-Toast

[Kdub]

You know that whole SK thing? It was better regardless of allignment because it meant one less kill.

Misses the point completely.

The town wasn't sure alex was the SK at the time

.

You know that whole 1 v1 thing? Thil would have lost hands down, because no one here saw him as more town then Patb

PatB was scum, why would he be telling the truth about his read? Yes, thil would have lost the 1v1,

that is exactly why the scum tried to avoid resolving the 1v1 on D5

, so they could get an easy thil mislynch on D6 and potentially win the game.

It still doesn't make sense why he would claim being roleblocked.

To set up the 1v1 with thil and to avoid having to make up another round of sensor results.

OH, and thil flipped cop. Just saying.

I don't see what you are trying to imply here.

[lewarcher82]

I am Daisy, Vanilla Townie.

And what do you mean as far as killing Bunny making no sense?

It makes no sense for two reasons:
1) esurio is confirmed town, Bunny was not.
2) Bunny had claimed VT while the rest of us hadn't claimed yet.
If you had asked me during night which player would be the least likely nightkill, it definitely would have been Bunny (even leaving aside the possibility that he was scum). The only thing I can think of is that the scum might have suspected BL was playing a gambit and lying about being a VT.

Anyway, here's what the setup might be:
Town: Doc, cop, JoaT, tracker, 2-shot vig, 1-shot flavor cop, 9x VT
Mafia: Doc, encryptor, roleblocker, goon
SK: One-shot BP

If you ask me, that setup seems town-favored. Town has 3 investigative roles (4 if Dekes had one) and a doc.

why are you implying 4 scum only? This is a fallacy. Is it done on purpose? Later in your post you do not.

In terms of scumminess, TMH is definitely at the top of the list for me. His reaction to dana's lynch looked fake, and he tried to defend PatB yesterday until it was clear that nobody else was siding with him. Based on player reads alone, he is my top choice for scum and it's not really close.

However, one thing that bothered me was how strongly certain people were pushing for weirdalexv's lynch on D5, in spite of the 1v1. Obviously scum would want this, because they wanted to 1v1 to extend to the next day if possible, when they could then swing a thil lynch, which would have been quite easy. What they didn't expect, however, was that thil would get vigged that night. Take a look at D5, and you see that PatB (scum), TMH, and lew were strongly pushing for alex's lynch. Why? I didn't find the case on alex particularly convincing, but even if you did, was it strong enough to convince you to put off a 1v1?

Also, remember this post, where lew pegs alex's role. Coincidence?

No, I am just brilliant like that.

Also, remember GW tracked lew to thil on the night thil claimed to have been roleblocked.

Also, lew's claimed role seems out of place when you look at the potential setup I posted above. One-shot flavor-cop when town already has a full cop and tracker? Why make a weaker role one-shot while having an unlimited role that is stronger (cop)? I might be able to buy a one-shot cop + full flavor-cop in the setup, but the opposite? And lew's claim of finding a crystal ball on thil still doesn't sit well with me. Given that scum safeclaims appear to be related flavor-wise to their actual role (Dark Samus - Samus, AU 313 - AU 242), that role can't possibly catch scum unless they deviate from their safeclaims.

how do you know that scum had claims that were related to their real flavour? You are quoting two particular cases that allow it to happen. May I know what you imagine pine's and chk's fake claims to be?

So here's my theory. I propose that lew is the mafia roleblocker, and TMH is a mafia role cop. Balance-wise, it makes the setup look like this:
Town: Doc, cop, JoaT, tracker, 2-shot vig, 9x VT
Mafia: Doc, encryptor, roleblocker, role cop, goon
SK: One-shot BP

fallacy explained. That there are 5 scum makes it balanced, not that you added cop. You compare this to a 4-scum theory to make it look solid.

That looks more balanced to me. Also, it explains why PatB, lew, and TMH were so adamant about lynching alex on D5 instead of thil: because they had investigated alex on an earlier night and found that he was the SK, so they wanted to eliminate him since he was likely their biggest threat at the time. That, plus the fact that they didn't want to resolve the 1v1 yet, otherwise PatB would have been revealed as scum. Thanks to esurio's shot, that happened anyway. It also explains how lew was able to call alex's role name as Dark Samus, even though we didn't know yet that the scum safeclaims were closely tied to their actual role names.

we would be idiots, if we, as a scum team, grouped up in such an evident way to push a mislynch.

I am still thinking about exactly who to lynch today. I admit that I have basically no read on Looker due to the replacement history of that player slot and his play so far. If my theory is wrong and there is only one scum left, we still have tomorrow so it probably doesn't matter. If I am right that there are two scum left but it is not TMH and lew, then what is a less likely scumteam: TMH+Looker or lew+Looker?

you are not taking into consideration the option of two scum, not being those whom you suspect. Imprudent move on lylo.

Now comes my theory, kdub.

My theory is that whoever killed bunny made it for one precise reason. There are two possible options:
1) Looker is scum --> bunny was FoS'ing him
2) Looker is town --> scum is trying to frame him

If you consider that PatB died insulting two players, bunny and looker, and that one is dead, it is highly likely that scum killed bunny to attract everyones attention on Looker.

Now you come out with a theory that suggests two scum teams: guess what? Looker is in both.

From my POV, esurio is confirmed town. If I am right about it being option 2, Looker is town as well. Then if there are two scum, it makes you and TMH mafia. Your last post reads very well in this direction. Attempt at framing Looker after bunny's death and distancing from TMH (note that your """case""" on him is even weaker than your """case""" on me).

If on the contrary there is one scum, it is you. As I have a town read of TMH, I would go for this hypothesis first.

question: if you think that there is a scum rolecop, how likely is it that they never hit a town pr before the claims happened?

[Kdub]

how do you know that scum had claims that were related to their real flavour? You are quoting two particular cases that allow it to happen. May I know what you imagine pine's and chk's fake claims to be?

I am going by what information we have. alex and PatB both had fakeclaims that were closely related flavor-wise to their actual roles. None of the other flipped scum claimed role names before they flipped. We don't know for certain, but given the evidence we have, it's a reasonable assumption.

That there are 5 scum makes it balanced, not that you added cop. You compare this to a 4-scum theory to make it look solid.

Setup analysis is a legitimate tactic. Is it 100% guaranteed to work? No, but I'm not claiming that my theory is absolutely correct, only that the evidence supports it. I think most people would agree that the 4-scum scenario looks town-favored.

we would be idiots, if we, as a scum team, grouped up in such an evident way to push a mislynch.

Again, I will point out that the scum didn't expect thil to die N5. If you and TMH were scum with PatB, but esurio didn't kill thil, it would have been a mylo on D6 with the 1v1 still intact, and thil almost certainly would have been lynched given the general opinions of him. Scum win. The scum just needed to eliminate their biggest threat at the time: the SK, and they wouldn't have to worry about anything else.

Now you come out with a theory that suggests two scum teams: guess what? Looker is in both.

You misread what I said, or maybe it wasn't clear. I am not suggesting two scum teams. If there is one scum player remaining, it is almost certainly you or TMH. If my theory is correct and there are two scum players remaining, it is you+TMH. If I am right that there are two scum players remaining, but I am wrong about you+TMH, then the only possibilities left are you+Looker and TMH+Looker. In that case, I need to think about which scenario is more likely before I decide who to vote for.

From my POV, esurio is confirmed town. If I am right about it being option 2, Looker is town as well. Then if there are two scum, it makes you and TMH mafia. Your last post reads very well in this direction. Attempt at framing Looker after bunny's death and distancing from TMH (note that your """case""" on him is even weaker than your """case""" on me).

Where am I "framing" looker?

question: if you think that there is a scum rolecop, how likely is it that they never hit a town pr before the claims happened?

Without doing the math in detail, it seems reasonable. If you assume a 5-man scum team, then 2/3 of the starting non-mafia players were not town PRs. I don't see the point you are trying to make here though. Scum roleblocked the claimed cop every night after his claim, and they killed claimed town PRs a couple times.

[lewarcher82]

how do you know that scum had claims that were related to their real flavour? You are quoting two particular cases that allow it to happen. May I know what you imagine pine's and chk's fake claims to be?

I am going by what information we have. alex and PatB both had fakeclaims that were closely related flavor-wise to their actual roles. None of the other flipped scum claimed role names before they flipped. We don't know for certain, but given the evidence we have, it's a reasonable assumption.

That there are 5 scum makes it balanced, not that you added cop. You compare this to a 4-scum theory to make it look solid.

Setup analysis is a legitimate tactic. Is it 100% guaranteed to work? No, but I'm not claiming that my theory is absolutely correct, only that the evidence supports it. I think most people would agree that the 4-scum scenario looks town-favored.

Missing the point. I am accusing you to misrep the situation by comapring your own reconstruction with a 4-scum one, ignoring every other possible 5-scum patterns. It is a methodological remarl, as it is made clear by the parts of my post you do not quote. As for 4-scum being unlikely, I would agree if I hadn't a town read of TMH.

we would be idiots, if we, as a scum team, grouped up in such an evident way to push a mislynch.

Again, I will point out that the scum didn't expect thil to die N5. If you and TMH were scum with PatB, but esurio didn't kill thil, it would have been a mylo on D6 with the 1v1 still intact, and thil almost certainly would have been lynched given the general opinions of him. Scum win. The scum just needed to eliminate their biggest threat at the time: the SK, and they wouldn't have to worry about anything else.

so your scum completely ignored the fact that someone killed chk and it was not the SK?

Now you come out with a theory that suggests two scum teams: guess what? Looker is in both.

You misread what I said, or maybe it wasn't clear. I am not suggesting two scum teams. If there is one scum player remaining, it is almost certainly you or TMH. If my theory is correct and there are two scum players remaining, it is you+TMH. If I am right that there are two scum players remaining, but I am wrong about you+TMH, then the only possibilities left are you+Looker and TMH+Looker. In that case, I need to think about which scenario is more likely before I decide who to vote for.

you pushed so much on the fact that 4 scum is unlikely, that this objection sounds really weird.

From my POV, esurio is confirmed town. If I am right about it being option 2, Looker is town as well. Then if there are two scum, it makes you and TMH mafia. Your last post reads very well in this direction. Attempt at framing Looker after bunny's death and distancing from TMH (note that your """case""" on him is even weaker than your """case""" on me).

Where am I "framing" looker?

it is absolutely clear from what I have written that I think scum was going to attack Looker. Looker scum is almost an implication of what you have written. As I saw bunny's death, I sat on my chair and said to myself: let's see who is the first one who suggests Looker is scum.

question: if you think that there is a scum rolecop, how likely is it that they never hit a town pr before the claims happened?

Without doing the math in detail, it seems reasonable. If you assume a 5-man scum team, then 2/3 of the starting non-mafia players were not town PRs. I don't see the point you are trying to make here though. Scum roleblocked the claimed cop every night after his claim, and they killed claimed town PRs a couple times.

Ok. It's possible. But so you think that not only SK was not nk-immune but just one-shot BP, but there was also a role around capable of detecting him? Sounds extremely unlikely to me (balance-wise), ad trust me, I know the role a little bit.