Into Africa - Over

[Amrun]

I isolated both seacore and vezok.

Can everyone, specially those voting seacore, tell me why are you prefering seacore to vezok?

The real answer will be "Seacore should know better"

Than what?

[Seacore]

Than Vezok

[Amrun]

So what are you saying? That you are playing worse than vezok?

[evilpacman18]

Spoiler: prologue

Let's do this shit. Reread from the beginning. I'll start with pure VC analysis. This will be a multi-part post. Scum reads include Seacore, Snarky, and earworm, but I barely trust myself with these. I'm putting them here so everyone reading this will be aware that I AM BIASED AGAINST THEM because they looked bad even while I've been mostly skimming since the beginning of D3. Probably contrary to popular opinion, I had been keeping up with the game. I'd probably read about high 80th percentile of the posts before D3 started. The problem is that I tend to lurk in games if
1. I'm not scum
2. I don't have a single read I'm confident on by around the 10th page.
Both of those are true for this game, but I really don't wanna be useless for it, plus I don't particularly need the damage to my meta or other MS users' perception of me as a player. Anyway back to being biased against them. Where I'll be looking for any read on most players, I will be looking for whether or not those 3 are scum. It's just there's a lot more potential for me to tunnel, and it's impossible to avoid, but I am quite self-aware and I'll try to be fair.

Starting with pure VC analysis (without context).

Spoiler: VC analyses

Flavour Analysis (2) -

Ellibereth,

silavor

ZeLinK (2) - snarky,

HezLucky

Amrun (1) - pappums rat
jilynne1991 (1) - Cirno
Snarky (1) -

Fate

DietyKabuto (1) - ZeL1nK
silavor (1) - Flavour Analysis
Cirno (1) - Llamarble

Not Voting (14) - Amrun,

jilynne1991

, Altilysian, vezokpiraka, inHimshallibe, populartajo,

PeregrineV

, elvis_knits, Seacore, Lowell, evilpacman18, curiouskarmadog, DietyKabuto, earworm

I'm gonna assume this is past RVS. Hez and Snarky on the same wagon. I'll give both ZeLink and Snarky town points for this. This early in the game scum wouldn't be bussing or buddying yet.

snarky (4) - Llamarble, earworm,

Ellibereth

, ZeL1nK
ZeL1nK (4) - snarky,

HezLucky

,

silavor

, Amrun
Amrun (1) - pappums rat
jilynne1991 (1) - Cirno
Ellibereth (1) -

jilynne1991

Flavour Analysis (1) -

Fate

silavor (1) - Flavour Analysis

Not Voting (11) - Altilsian, vezokpiraka, inHimshallibe, populartajo,

PeregrineV,

elvis_knits, Seacore, Lowell, evilpacman18, curiouskarmadog, DietyKabuto

This one makes me look forward to reading Amrun. Not only is she in a position that's often populated by scum on a wagon, she's also placed just one spot away from now-confirmed scum with confirmed town in between. This has the potential to be momentum building on what's probably a mislynch (with Hez sitting on that vote, apparently) without making it easy to connect them.

Flavour Analysis (6) -

earworm

, vezokpiraka,

HezLucky

, elvis_knits, Fate,

Amrun

snarky (2) - Llamarble, ZeL1nK
ZeL1nK (2) - snarky, silavor
Amrun (1) - pappums rat
Fate (1) - Flavour Analysis
Ellibereth (1) - jilynne1991
HezLucky (1) - Ellibereth
elvis_knits (1) - Cirno
Lowell (1) - PeregrineV

Not Voting (8) - Altilysian, populartajo, Seacore, Lowell, evilpacman18, DietyKabuto, inHimshallibe, curiouskarmadog

26 hours between this VC and the previous VC.

It takes forever to outline who's confirmed and I'm sure you all know so I'm gonna quit doing that for town at least. I'm gonna use the colors for who particularly looks good or bad with my current pre-reread reads as influence for these decisions.

Amrun, for instance, who's doing the same thing she did in the last VC. Following Hez with town in between. I'm gonna love if this is a pattern. Earworm I just think he's scum. Idr why people jumped on FA so quick here but there's bound to be at least two scum there. It's too fast.

snarky (4) - Llamarble, earworm, Fate, vezokpiraka
Flavour Analysis (3) - HezLucky, elvis_knits, DietyKabuto
earworm (3) - Altilysian, Ellibereth, Flavour Analysis
Amrun (2) - pappums rat, snarky
silavor (2) - evilpacman18, ZeL1nK
Ellibereth (1) - jilynne1991
HezLucky (1) - Lowell
elvis_knits (1) - Cirno
Lowell (1) - PeregrineV
DietyKabuto (1) - Amrun
ZeL1nK (1) - silvaor

Not Voting (4) - populartajo,

Seacore,

inHimshallibe, curiouskarmadog

4th VC, a quick wagon has come and gone and several people have had wagons begin on them and tajo, Seacore, inhim, and ckd still haven't voted. Obviously due to my bias this makes Seacore look worse than it does the other three. Cirno's sitting on probtown EK is weird. The earworm wagon is too full of town to be unmerited. And I remember this DK vote by Amrun. Policy lynch attempt.

silavor (5) -

evilpacman18

,

ZeL1nK

,

Seacore

,

elvis_knits

,

Amrun

earworm (4) - Altilysian, Flavour Analysis, silavor, Lowell
jilynne1991 (3) - Ellibereth, vezokpiraka, inHimshallibe
snarky (3) - Llamarble, earworm, Fate
Amrun (2) - pappums rat, snarky
Flavour Analysis (2) - HezLucky, DietyKabuto
Ellibereth (1) - jilynne1991
HezLucky (1) - populartajo
elvis_knits (1) - Cirno
Lowell (1) - PeregrineV

Not sure if I'm tunneling or if Amrun is really this obvious. Seacore just looks opportunistic.

skipping the VC in 483 because it's fairly uneventful

silavor (9) - evilpacman18, ZeL1nK, Seacore, elvis_knits, populartajo, Llamarble, inHimshallibe, snarky, earworm
snarky (3) - GreyICE, Fate,

Amrun

earworm (3) - Flavour Analysis, silavor, Lowell
jilynne1991 (2) - Ellibereth, vezokpiraka
HezLucky (2) - curiouskarmadog, Altilysian
Flavour Analysis (2) - HezLucky, DietyKabuto
Ellibereth (1) - jilynne1991
elvis_knits (1) - Cirno
Lowell (1) - PeregrineV

And now she's off. Fishing for town points? Also Fate is confirmed town. Is it possible that she's doing the same sheeping a buddy but distancing by having town in between the hop thing AGAIN? I do remember weakly thinking ICE was scum so it's something to remember but I'm not gonna put him in red for it. Wagons on earworm have consistently been VERY VERY town.

silvaor (12) - ZeL1nK, Seacore, elvis_knits, populartajo, inHimshallibe, snarky, Lowell, Amrun, vezokpiraka, DietyKabuto, Fate, evilpacman18
HezLucky (2) - curiouskarmadog, Altilsian
evilpacman18 (2) - silavor, earworm
earworm (2) - Flavour Analysis, Ellibereth
Fate (1) - GreyICE
Ellibereth (1) - jilynne1991
elvis_knits (1) - Cirno
Flavour Analysis (1) - HezLucky
Cirno (1) - Llamarble

Interesting. If the scum team is Amrun, Seacore, Hez, and ICE (which seems really accurate actually) they're all doing a good job of distancing. Also by now my scum read on snarky has all but dissipated. His votes look good and wagons on him are shitty.

D2

curiouskarmadog (4) -

GreyICE, HezLucky,

Fate, vezokpiraka
Llamarble (4) - elvis_knits,

Seacore

, curiouskarmadog, Lowell
HezLucky (2) -

Flavour Analysis, ZeL1nK

evilpacman18 (2) -

Amrun, earworm

Fate (1) - Cirno
elvis_knits (1) - DietyKabuto
ZeL1nK (1) - snarky

Not Voting (5) - evilpacman18, populartajo, inHimshallibe, jilynne1991, Llamarble

Scum are in these 5. Judging by the pattern, the excess of VT's so far, and the very limited dayvig, I wanna say that there is 5 scum, which makes it makes sense. I don't like the pattern though. Making ICE green though makes the pattern very plausible but then I'm lost on a 5th scum. InHim maybe? He's been pretty inconspicuous. Looking back I notice that he didn't vote for a while, then went for jil, who's too easy, then aided in the silavor mislynch. He's sitting in between probtown players.

HezLucky (6) -

Flavour Analysis, ZeL1nK, populartajo, vezokpiraka,

GreyICE,

Fate

Llamarble (4) - elvis_knits, Seacore, curiouskarmadog, Lowell
Fate (1) - Cirno
Lowell (1) - earworm
snarky (1) - Amrun
curiouskarmadog (1) - HezLucky
ZeL1nK (1) - snarky

Not Voting (6) - evilpacman18, inHimshallibe, jilynne1991, Llamarble, DietyKabuto, Altilysian

I don't like cirno's votes.

HezLucky (11) - Flavour Analysis, ZeL1nK, populartajo, vezokpiraka, GreyICE, DietyKabuto, Altilysian,

curiouskarmadog

,

Amrun,

Fate,

Calcifer
curiouskarmadog (4) -

HezLucky, earworm, Seacore,

Cirno
Llamarble (3) - elvis_knits, Lowell, snarky
snarky (1) - evilpacman18

Not Voting (1) - Llamarble

inHim replaced out which helps to explain his lack of committal to a wagon. I'll have to actually read Calc to decide what I think there. The red on ckd doesn't look right. earworm would follow right after Hez, I have no trouble believing that, but if two buddies were on a mislynch, Seacore is too smart to hop on it as well. Either he wasn't paying attention or earworm is town. It's interesting how Hez got sheeped like this, assuming I'm looking at this right. Amrun is so methodical about placing herself in between town. I wonder how conscious it is. At this point I have her as my strongest scum read.

D3 VCs differ very slightly so far so I'll post the most recent one only.

Seacore (6) - Flavour Analysis, DietyKabuto, elvis_knits, Calcifer, Altilysian, evilpacman18
GreyICE (4) - ZeL1nK, vezokpiraka, curiouskarmadog, snarky
Cirno (2) - GreyICE, Llamarble
vezokpiraka (1) - populartajo
evilpacman18 (1) - earworm
curiouskarmadog (1) - Cirno
Llamarble (1) - Lowell

Not Voting (2) - Seacore, Amrun

Amrun and Seacore not voting. Earworm is camped out on me. Seacore's wagon looks very town and I like it. Based on all this I have scum as Amrun, Seacore, one of (or MAYBE both but unlikely) ICE/earworm and my fifth is a bit up in the air. Maybe cirno? Don't know why his(her?) vote is on ckd but it probably shouldn't be with the whole dayvig thing.

I'd be more up to lynch Amrun but Seacore works. And remember, these reads come before my reread of the actual posts in the thread, so although I feel good about them, they will probably change as I actually apply these peoples' posts to their votes.

Gonna take a break, play some video games, then read.

[Seacore]

So what are you saying? That you are playing worse than vezok?

No, I'm saying that Vezok has a reputation as someone who always looks scummy. So people just let it slip by because most of the time lynching scummy Vezok = lynching town.

[ZeL1nK]

I can't believe I read that whole VCA.

Why did I read that whole VCA?

[ZeL1nK]

Oh, god... vezok's ISO#13 and ISO#14. My eyes are bleeding. The rest isn't much better but wow. But that reminds me, vezok is V/LA until the 9th if people want to discuss scavenging him (as underhanded as this may seem). I've kind of ignored him this game and don't really have any strong feelings about his alignment.

As for pacman, ISO#4 is really making me lean town, especially in light of the lion cub flip. Like, no offense to pacman, but this isn't the kind of semi-gambit-WIFOM-whatever-you-want-to-call-it thing I could see pacman-scum capable of pulling off. zebra claim + humans-v-animal crap = pacman-town

The rest of his ISO just reinforces a VI-town read on him. His D2 play was utter crap (there's no content in it, he just pretty much active lurked through D2) but I don't think that's an alignment tell.

And short of him dropping scum tells left, right and centre, there's really not that much that can happen to change my read on him.

I'm liking Seacore's recent burst of activity. I've still yet to see anything from him that makes me think he's scum.

[Seacore]

I'm not as convinced Ze, but you've definitely got me wavering now.
Sigh.
I guess I'll be starting my own wagon then, since I don't like any of the current ones.

Unvote. Vote Lowell

[evilpacman18]

VI-town read on him

plus I don't particularly need the damage to my meta or other MS users' perception of me as a player.

I should stop being lazy.

[GreyICE]

I'm not as convinced Ze, but you've definitely got me wavering now.
Sigh.
I guess I'll be starting my own wagon then, since I don't like any of the current ones.

Unvote. Vote Lowell

Oh god why are we lynching Lowell? Can we just tell CKD to vig him whenever he gets a chance and have it done with?

There is no goddamn reason to lynch captain 'lurker I didn't read the thread' when we have an activity vig.

[Seacore]

yeah, happy to move my vote away from Lowell if he gets vigged. But I've got quite a few people on my want to see vig list. Like we could have vezok dead, yes?

Anyway, I'm happy to vote for any of my scum reads, including snarky, but they'll all be first vote on the wagon, so there's no hurry.

[GreyICE]

If you'd rather see vezok vigged more than Lowell, why are you voting for Lowell?

[ZeL1nK]

tbh, I don't see Lowell as scum, either, Seacore. lol. One of us is way off in our reads.

Like this D2:

Are people actually bailing on the llamarble wagon? Why?

... and this D3:

The llamarble wagon totally fell apart yesterday. Anyone want to explain why? Certainly isn't because he actually did something useful.

... after we lynched Hez D2?

I'm having trouble seeing Lowell-scum in the same way I'm having trouble seeing Seacore-scum blatantly sheeping Hez's cop claim. Like their actions make no sense if they're scum.

01 Amrun
04 GreyICE
08 Calcifer
17 snarky
19 DietyKabuto
24 earworm

I'm thinking remaining scum lies in this list. I have too many town reads though, and I'm probably wrong about 1 or 2.

And, oh yes, DK is a very strong contender for scum now. I have never seen DK-town be this stupid and I have never seen DK-town sheep this badly. I'm not seeing any of the aggression I'm use to seeing from DK when he's town. Passive, sheeping DK looks like DK-scum.

[ZeL1nK]

If you'd rather see vezok vigged more than Lowell, why are you voting for Lowell?

How does this not make sense to you?

[Seacore]

Seacore votes Lowel
GI: Why do you want to vote lowel, he should be vigged
Seacore: Because I want Vezok vigged
GI: Then why aren't you voting Vezok?

Um...?

I'll join you on either Calcifer or snarky Ze

[GreyICE]

If you'd rather see vezok vigged more than Lowell, why are you voting for Lowell?

How does this not make sense to you?

Uh:

S: Lowell is scummy, Vote: Lowell
G: Let the vig handle him.
S: Vig is more likely to hit scum with Vezok
G: ... ?

Like... really, lets not lynch Lowell today. I still want him dead (living in a tunnel isn't a town tell) but he can be vigged at leisure.

I'm down with my vote right now.

[Seacore]

Like I said, I'm happy for the vig to get him. But if he keeps popping in to vote every 2.9 days and we keep saying "eventually the vig will get him" then he gets to end game.

unvote. Vote Calcifer

This will be my last jump for today.

[ZeL1nK]

@GI

I didn't see Seacore say he thought the vig was more likely to hit scum with vezok. I'm not seeing how his thought process about vezok is different from your thought process about lowell.

@Seacore

Well, Lowell is eligible for vigging now. vezok still has a day to go.

[earworm]

Let's see:

EK: super town
Seacore-town
Zel1nk-town
Gi-townish
FA-feeling worse about this slot as of late.
Tajo-towny
EPM: I'm just going to ignore every fucking post of yours until this game is over UNVOTE:
Amrun: scummy.
Cirno: hard fucking time reading you...
Calcifer: I like Seacore's point on Calcifer. I'll have to keep an eye on him.
Lowell: needs to be vigged
Vezok: ditto

@FA: EPM's claim stuck out to me as strange and odd reading through the first time. I still don't like even with the Zebra flip. Though honestly if you've been reading my posts you should've figured out that this was my position on the matter.

[Llamarble]

I think EKobvtown is being overstated, which alarms me.

[Seacore]

I don't think EK is obvtown, I think EK is both strong (because the player is good) and town. But I agree, we shouldn't let that slip into obvtown. So far there's nobody that I'm writing off that way.

[Llamarble]

Snarky's vote is entirely uncorrelated with his town/scumlists, which were what I thought was good about him. He can die.

Also Amrun is totally his busbuddy. Amrun is like very scum needs to die.
VOTE: Amrun
If I wasn't already.

[Llamarble]

I was worried about people pointing the vig at Lowell.
On reread I was crazy. Lowell should definitely be vigged and will probably flip scum.

CKD bussed Hez all day long, thus it is improbable they are on the same scumteam.

Why must people simultaneously claim scum and self-contradict...
The people Snarky posts reasoning about aren't the people he votes for / tries to lynch. This bothers me a lot.
But on the other hand he has some forthright honest sounding stuff. Blergh.
And I just don't know what to make of him claiming to believe Elli. I suppose if DK flips scum he's probscum for that.

TOWN:
Llamarble
FA
Zelink
Atily

Cirno

TOWNWARD:
Vezok
CKD (Dayvig, guiltyclaimer was a goon)
DK
Pacman

???:
Snarky (contradiction machine)
Tajo (blorg)
EK (Way too much EK SUPERTOWN YO being tossed around; certainly she's playing well and putting in effort if scum, but where is obvtown from?)
Seacore (grolb)

SCUMWARD:
Calcifer (Inhim was scumterse)
Grey
Earworm

SCUM:
Amrun
Lowell (Uses "a townie wouldn't do X" scumlogicstructure)

[Llamarble]

And I'm caught up!
That took 3 hours instead of the 1 I was allotting, but oh well.
I'll find my most confident scumread by tomorrow night and then we can make them die.

[Lowell]

last weekend bad for me. will catch up.