A Gentleman's Game of Guile, Subterfuge, and Intrigue (Fin)

[Hoppster]

GUESS WHAT'S NO LONGER [REDACTED]

Open 310

HUZZAH


So you can all discuss whether I'm just going crazy or what.

jily: do you agree with me when I say that your play this game is different to Open 310?

Wait, so is this you saying jily could very well be newbtown?

This is me considering all possibilities and judging which is the most likely. JilyScum is more likely that HoppsterScum so I lean on JilyScum rather than a team with HoppsterScum in it. However, your constant affirmation of her being town (and worryingly, your previous crusade with Vezok as scum), is making me reconsider.

While the first 'accusation' is fair, the second is a bit of an exaggeration (and me calling it a 'bit' of an exaggeration is a bit of an understatement).

I wouldn't say I've been crusading on it (I'm

leaning

towards vezok-town atm), I've just been going "o hai guise don't clear vezok he's not confirmed town for srs". Admittedly a couple of times, but that's largely because I don't think anybody (up to this point) had been taking note of it.

And, really, blowing the game based on a flavour cop result would be just stupid. If it was as simple as all the scum roles having 'incriminating' flavour, then the setup would just have a cop. Not a flavour cop. Therefore it's not unreasonable to resist the idea of a flavour cop 'clearing' somebody as town.

[AurorusVox]

Isn't the existence of an SK and Miller and even potential BG, enough to convince you that a flavour cop would be used over a normal cop? :\

[AurorusVox]

Also I'm staying with a pal for the weekend so I might not be on much

[Hoppster]

Isn't the existence of an SK and Miller and even potential BG, enough to convince you that a flavour cop would be used over a normal cop? :\

BG is a reasonable point actually, I didn't think about that.
While it does make it

slightly more

able to accept your line of thought, I'm still not convinced, as flavour-wise a BG doesn't make a lot of sense as having incriminating flavour (it's a noble profession).

SK in itself is not enough to convince me at all.

[AurorusVox]

Isn't the existence of an SK and Miller and even potential BG, enough to convince you that a flavour cop would be used over a normal cop? :\

BG is a reasonable point actually, I didn't think about that.
While it does make it

slightly more

able to accept your line of thought, I'm still not convinced, as flavour-wise a BG doesn't make a lot of sense as having incriminating flavour (it's a noble profession).

SK in itself is not enough to convince me at all.

As for the

Altruistic and Honorable Gentleman Steadfast in Courage and Resolve

, as you so crudely refer to as a "Bodyguard," the occupation functions as it would in any normal gathering - should that Gentleman's protectee be targeted by dastardly deeds of death, the Gentleman would perish in his stead.[/color]

Actually you're right about the BG. I thought it might have been the sort of BG that could kill someone instead of their attacker, i.e. the cop could check whether the player was a potential killer or not.

I'ma go ISO Jily in Open 310. Let's see how that pans out.

[AurorusVox]

Okay so here's what I found of Jily comparing the ISOs:

+ Same lack of vote + leaning towns
+ Seems to be a similar attitude of a lack of confidence
+ Lack of suspects matches with her previous play

++EXACT SAME PHRASE ABOUT PEOPLE ASKING HER QUESTIONS TO GET HER BRAIN RUNNING AGAIN...DUN DUN DUNNN

She DOES call people scum here, but doesn't seem convinced when she does it + has no real "cases" beyond PoE and gut.
The other thing is she seems to be actively seeking halp here. That could be more to do with it being one of her first games (Open 310 came about 2 weeks later)

---

However, the real benefit of re-ISOing her here, is reminding myself that she reads as pretty scummy with some of her comments, and highly inconsistent regarding her suspicions today:

1) Because I didn't find anyone else scummy before just today.

Not quite true. You'd expressed concerns about the {AV/Feysal/Hoppster} trio before...Let's take a look:

The thing is, even though I have a reason for thinking you were scum, you still seem more town than scum. So let's just say I factor out you. That leaves me thinking that Feysal is the scummiest. Does that make sense to you?

She says here that

Feysal

is the scummiest; but after I put some pressure on her, this changes to:

I'd like AV lynched first, since to be honest, I never really trusted him. I always though he could be scum, because he seemed like a really good player and wouldn't slip up, but he looked townie enough.

Now let's see if she "never really trusted" me:

Aurous Vox seems very helpful to the town. I don't think a scum would gain much by being so careful and helping the town *that* much. Somehow, I have a bad gut feeling, but my gut feelings usually prove to be wrong. He's leaning town for me.

Okay, she seems to think I'm town, but has a bad gut feeling I'm scum; that could qualify as not trusting me #1. But let's take a quick sidestep into the second part:

my gut feelings usually prove to be wrong

Compare that with:

I have a gut feeling that Hoppster isn't [scum]...and so far,

my gut feelings have never turned out wrong.

More "

not

trusting AV":

I agree with AurorusVox on that

You're calling AV scum, yet everything he says seems to be true.

---

Now let's consider her relative placement of {AV/Feysal/Hoppster} as potential scum:

Leaning Town:
Feysal
Aurorus Vox
Sir Hoppster

She then goes on to say:

I also think Feysal, and possibly Hoppster [could be scum], not because I think hoppseter is scum, but because everyone esle looks more town.

Feysal and Hoppster become scumreads by PoE. Notice I'm not included here, and apparently am part of "everyone else" as looking town.

[AV], feysal, and tt

I can't see any other 3-person team. I don't find you scummy, but your the most likely to be scum.

Then puts me and Feysal above Hoppster (who was her third leaning town out of three), AND puts us in a scumteam together.

Ok, I so adamantly refused to believe Hoppster was scum, because he doesn't think I'm scum. So actually PoE tells me that Hoppster and Feysal should be scum together. I suppose Hoppster could be scum. I just doubt it.

PoE, which she has used to narrow to {AV/Feysal/Hoppster}, is fine for selecting three people but not for putting the nail in the coffin of Hoppster scum, which it would HAVE to do with a two-man scumteam.

---

tl;dr: Jily's suspicions of me have been all over the place, as have her potential teams and graded scumlists. This is because she can't keep track of who she "ought" to be suspecting if she were town; if she were actually town, she would have a clearer idea and be able to order her scum preferences accordingly.

[AurorusVox]

She DOES call people scum here, but doesn't seem convinced when she does it + has no real "cases" beyond PoE and gut.

Btw this was a point in favour of a potential TownMeta.

[vezokpiraka]

I'm back.

Jylly is still scum.

And AV is pretty townie right now.

[Wraith]

Deadline remains within a week of this day.

[imaginality]

Mr Piraka's speech is uncouth
But what he says, it gleams with truth

I believe we've caught a villain
The sneaky, evil Lady Jilynne

Let us not tarry or delay
Why not vote now to end the day?

[jilynne1991]

Ok, about the how my gut feelings usually prove to be wrong, I said that because, I haven't had any flips where I've had a strong gut feeling yet, and I didn't want a flip to happen and for me to be wrong, but for the last few flips in some other games, my gut feeling has always prove to be right.

Ok, whatever, I don't think I can persuade you guys to not vote me, so, sorry, I really am town.

[AurorusVox]

Let's do this

Vote: Jilynne1991

[Feysal]

Contradiction Discovered:
In TGtN you questioned WHY I wasn't using my previous scum meta to defend myself against Nacho. Why did you want me to use it then (when you were town) but don't want me to use it now (when I am town)?

I don't recall questioning you on the matter. Instead, after Regfan was revealed as town, I investigated your meta myself to see if there was any merit to his case on you, and shared my findings with Nacho and you both. I did so because I could not be certain if I would live to defend you myself, and it was not self-meta to begin with since I'd done the research. Besides, given how unreliable that meta proved to be, what makes you think I'd be interested in any meta you provided now?

Eh? I tunnel on town, that doesn't mean lord_hur was right that I only ever lynch town and that this is a scumtell against me. Lord_hur's point was in part to call me scum whilst showing that I never find scum, whereas in fact the opposite is true; not finding scum is a towntell for me (imo). And it is something I'm trying to work on. Do you think I'm content with having a poor scumhunting town game? :\

When did Lord Hur ever use your meta as a tell against you? Looking back, I see him explicitly saying it did not help him determine your alignment in #526, and later he used it as a town tell for your suspects. You yourself said he was refusing to accuse you in #587. At the time, all your meta arguments were about how often you voted anti-towns, you never said anything about voting townies being a towntell for you. So, when Lord Hur said you frequently vote town, an observation you apparently agree to be accurate, why not consider you were doing that with him? Why did you find him saying so suspicious?

Let's do this

Vote: Jilynne1991

I agree. I have some lingering concerns about you, but now that they've been said, they can wait until tomorrow. None of this changes the fact that Jilynne is clearly today's lynch, and should we prove wrong about that, further discussion is meaningless anyway.

Vote: jilynne1991

[Wraith]

Votecount 4.2

jilynne1991

(4)

:

vezokpiraka, imaginality, AurorusVox, Feysal

Not Voting

(2)

:

jilynne1991, Sir Hoppster

With 6 alive it takes

4

to lynch the knave.

Deadline is

July 16, 2011

, without possibility of extension.

What? You mean they've finished? Great scott, that was swifter than expected. Well then, let's get down to this wretched business. I am afraid that I have a dreadful feeling about this.

Please lead

jilynne1991

out onto the rear lawn. Yes, far away from the porch, we do not wish to make a mess of things of course. Please make read your issued firearms...take aim...I SAY! *monocle'd* What sort of deranged expression is this lady making?



Fire away, gentlemen! I care not to look upon it any longer. Excellent work, old chaps. Now let me rummage through the belongings...I say...! It appears this knave had infiltrated this establishment, preying upon our goodwill and polite demeanors. Excellent work once again, friends. We have rid ourselves of another rapscallion this day.

jilynne1991

,

Charming and Dashing Rogue Seeking Dishonorable Vengeance Against Proper Society

,

Lynched Day 4

Turn in and rest easy - I trust we shall finish our work come dawn.

Night 4

has commensed. Please forward appropriate actions by

July 13, 2011.

In additional news, I have modified the rules to remedy an oversight I realized I had made. See Rule 9a.

[Wraith]

Day Five

Morning, my good men! Come, arise this day so that we may finish this dastardly, dirty business. Mr. Williams, I trust we found a...corpse...today, is that right?

Ah, that is indeed a tragedy, good sir. Gentlemen, I regret to say the

vezokpiraka

will not be joining us today, as he is suffering from a most fatal head injury.

vezokpiraka

,

Most Proper but Unspectacular Man of Class

,

Murdered Most Foully Night Four

There are so few of us left at this point...but remember, the night is always darkest before the dawn. Let loose all your blood, toil, sweat, and tears - we'll see the light of a new day soon enough!

With 4 alive it takes

3

to lynch.

Deadline for this day is

July 24, 2011

I regret to inform you that I, personally, shall be

V/LA

during the days of

July 18-July 24

. Therefore, expect limited votecounts during those days.

[AurorusVox]

Ugh.

So Imaginality has been left alive for WIFOM Jily-team reasons.
I kind of want to NL to see who scum kill...

Feysal-Hoppster is so tough to distinguish.

Hoppster I have one solid reason for finding Town. But yesterday he defended Jily town quite hard.
Feysal has been my 2nd scumread at various points but he put Jily under the bus yesterday.

Ughghghghg.

[imaginality]

On the one hand, a further death would indeed clarify the situation slightly further.

On the other hand, the villain will likely simply kill that fellow whom the others amongst us most strongly believe to be a gentleman, or the fellow who they feel least certain of swaying to his cause. And then, tomorrow, the rogue will need to persuade only one player to vote wrongly in order to achieve his foul ends. Whereas at present, two gentlemen must be misled in order for the villain to win the day. I think we are all clear-headed fellows and therefore we will be more likely to locate the dastard if we draw on the abilities of all three gentlemen still amongst us.

/oldspeak

I'm going to go look at the first few days, see if I can spot any early-game tells.

[AurorusVox]

It makes sense, I'm just getting a little paranoid about you still being alive, Imaginality. You're doubtless more helpful to the town than Vezok was...unless them scummz really thought that Vezok was a PR...but based on "flavour cop" speculation, he likely wasn't due to appearing innocent to lord_hur. Ugh.

[imaginality]

I would've thought most PRs would appear innocent to a flavour cop except BG/vig types with guns. Since vezok refused to claim and he was more cleared than me (given jilynne flipped scum), I'm not too surprised they went for him.


Here's some game activity stats I calculated because I thought I might find something from them:

AV as town: 2.4 posts per day
AV as scum: 2.2 posts per day
AV this game: 2.0 posts per day

Feysal as town: 1.2 posts per day
Feysal as scum: 0.7 posts per day
Feysal this game: 0.4 posts per day

Hoppster as town: 1.6 posts per day
Hoppster as scum: 1.6 posts per day
Hoppster this game: 1.3 posts per day

imaginality as town: 1.0 posts per day
imaginality as scum: 0.9 posts per day
imaginality this game: 0.9 posts per day

We're all below our overall average in this game (the wordiness of D1 may well be a factor in that) but Feysal is particularly lower than average, even if we adjust everyone up by say 0.3.

Although Feysal's figures are based on fewer games than the rest of us, the sizable discrepancy between his posts/day in this game and in general arguably shows him playing to his scum meta activitywise.

Unfortunately Hoppster doesn't have any difference between town and scum posting rates so it doesn't help improve our reads on him.

Spoiler: raw numbers

All game figures are: posts-per-day, total-posts, total-days
All game links were taken from players' wikis
A few non-representative games (e.g. text mafia) were ignored; non-Mafiascum games were ignored
Posts = from first post to last during-game post
Days = from first post to last during-game post

AurorusVox

town
2.8 62 22 newbie929
3.5 77 22 newbie940
1.5 30 20 newbie961
3.6 75 21 open231
0.8 47 62 mini1036
4.6 143 31 mini1144

total posts/total days = 2.4

scum
3.0 152 51 newbie982
1.8 83 47 newbie1022
3.0 123 41 mini1146
2.8 36 13 open246
1.2 30 25 open284
4.2 117 28 mini1108
2.0 90 44 mini1116
1.3 113 85 mini1150

total posts/total days = 2.2

this game
2.0 118 60

Feysal

town
1.0 61 59 consulmaker
1.5 41 28 swords

total posts/total days = 1.2

scum
0.8 15 19 liten
0.6 83 136 stars 3
0.8 28 35 court of gods

total posts/total days = 0.7

this game
0.4 30 75

Hoppster

town
1.5 24 16 open 281
2.0 65 32 medical
1.3 77 59 newbie 1030
1.9 47 25 source code

total posts/total days = 1.6

scum
1.8 47 26 newbie 1058
1.4 50 35 newbie 1074
1.4 58 42 wrestlemania
2.0 39 20 newbie 1076
1.7 130 76 candy zoo

total posts/total days = 1.6

this game
1.3 97 76

imaginality[/i]

town
0.5 36 72 time travel
1.1 58 53 reality tv
2.7 138 52 avatar
0.9 48 52 geezer
0.7 82 111 british comedy
0.8 48 58 return to smalltown y
1.1 31 29 mini624

total posts/total days = 1.0

scum
0.9 48 55 mini1159
1.2 12 10 crossfire
1.1 27 24 pledge
0.8 45 55 smalltown y

total posts/total days = 0.9

this game
0.9 69 78

[imaginality]

Didn't find much to add from the early game stage. Feysal's first post was poor, so were kpaca(AV)'s first two, but neither posted for a while after the game started so they missed out on the RVS. Hoppster went in hard from the start but from what I saw he's done that in both town and scum games previously.

[AurorusVox]

Imaginality:

I'd like your take on Hoppster's defence of Jily yesterday and his request for a deadline extension on D1, and Feysal's hammer vote on Jily.

Feysal:

I'd like your take on Hoppster's defence of Jily yesterday and his request for a deadline extension on D1.

Hoppster:

I'd like your take on Feysal's hammer vote on Jily.

[Hoppster]

Inclined to regard imaginality surviving the night as null - ie. I retain my (essentially) confirmed-town read on him.

Hoppster:

I'd like your take on Feysal's hammer vote on Jily.

I agree. I have some lingering concerns about you, but now that they've been said, they can wait until tomorrow. None of this changes the fact that

Jilynne is clearly today's lynch

, and should we prove wrong about that,

further discussion is meaningless anyway

.

Vote: jilynne1991

I take slight offense with the two underlined statements, given how I was putting forward arguments for jily-town, but really, there's not a great deal I think is incredibly incriminating about the post. jilynne probably always was going to be the lynch, no matter what I said.

[Feysal]

The night is over already? That was fast.

Feysal:

I'd like your take on Hoppster's defence of Jily yesterday and his request for a deadline extension on D1.

Regarding Hoppster's request for a deadline extension, I never saw that as such a solid town tell. Obvious town tells are easiest to fake, therefore I find subtle tells more reliable, since they are more difficult to falsify and mafia rarely bother to try, since the town might not even notice them. Now that I look at the situation in which Hoppster made his request, I see no cause for concern why the mafia might not want the day to continue. All three wagons of the time were on town (Twistedspoon, Apokalyptika/Reya, kr0b/Toasty), and from a mafia viewpoint it should've looked like they had a mislynch in the bag.

As for his defence of Jilynne, at first glance it looks bad, save for one thing. Already in his first post yesterday Hoppster said that Jilynne was probably the lynch of the day, and even though he kept up his defence of her, he never tried to bring up an alternative to her lynch. Neither did anyone else from what I recall. I can't see the point of defending your partner if there is no viable alternative to her lynch anyway.

From my point of view, the mafia should be either Hoppster or AV. I should look at Hoppster's meta for whether and how he busses, for AV I already know. I find it unlikely that imaginality would be the last mafia, as he was under heavy suspicion at the time he claimed friendly neighbour, and I don't see mafia sacrificing a player not under suspicion to save one who is, to obtain a clear that erodes the moment your partner flips.

[imaginality]

Feysal, in iso16, you said you had a meta town read of AurorusVox - does that still apply?

Hoppster, do you still agree with what you said about the ToastyToast townflip implying AurorusVox is town?

[imaginality]

I can't see the point of defending your partner if there is no viable alternative to her lynch anyway.

There's the WIFOM aspect of whether Hoppster-scum would think town will give him more credit for not taking the easy option of bussing jilynne despite her being the fairly clear lynch - does it look more townie to appear uncertain about her?