Nintendo Mafia (Game Over)

[Kdub]

Can you tell me how sure you were that PatB was town? Sorry, I should have asked that at the same time I asked you about alex. Yes, I am going somewhere with this.

[lewarcher82]

I want to hear

his

reason, not yours. And while I have a feeling what his answer will be, I specifically mentioned the "90% sure about thil" thing that he brought up for a reason. I'd like to hear his response without help from anybody else.

hey, jumpy biy, I was referring to

his

reason: he stated several times in game that he had a town read on both elements of the 1vs1. So why asking again?

[Kdub]

Well duh, but I was hoping for more detail than that. Otherwise, saying "I had a read on X" is an excuse to justify any behavior, regardless of how scummy.

[lewarcher82]

Well duh, but I was hoping for more detail than that. Otherwise, saying "I had a read on X" is an excuse to justify any behavior, regardless of how scummy.

see? The only reason you asked a question that was already answered is that you wanted to make this comment about the weakness of tmh's reads. Tunneling.

And yeah, tunneling can be scummy, it depends on how you do it, and when. This explosion of activity of yours on possible lylo combined with tunneling is definitely scummy to me.

[Kdub]

Did you not read where I already admitted I am tunneling (though you moreso than TMH)? When I strongly believe someone is scum, I am going to explain exactly why I think so (which I have done repeatedly) and I'm going to highlight weaknesses in their positions to get them lynched. Continuing to say that I am tunneling does NOT address any of the reasons why I suspect you.

[lewarcher82]

I answered each point kdub. Do you want to ask all your question again? I will answer all of them again.

[jmj3000]

Official Vote Count

Players needed to lynch: 3

Players not voting: esuriospiritus, Kdub, lewarcher82, Looker, The Master Hand

(expired on 2011-07-17 02:30:00)

[lewarcher82]

mod: I am sure Looker could use a prod.

[Kdub]

I answered each point kdub. Do you want to ask all your question again? I will answer all of them again.

My point was that by continuing to complain about tunneling and whatnot, you are trying to discredit me without advancing the discussion in any way. You've admitted that you see that the scum were strongly motivated to push an alex lynch on D5, and you've said that you strongly wanted to lynch alex on D5 under the claim of "I had town reads on PatB/thil and an SK read on alex" (unprovable), yet you have not conceded that I have legitimate reasons to suspect you because of this. Sure, you "answered" my points in the sense that you gave the answer I would have expected scum to give. Do you at least see where I am coming from here?

Let's talk more about your analysis of D5 for the moment. Given that you admitted that the scum would have strongly wanted to lynch alex on D5 (especially if they had inside info that made him more likely to be the SK), do you find TMH scummy because he helped you push that wagon and appears to have the same excuse you do? Why or why not? Given that I was against the alex wagon, and Looker, being a replacement, only threw his vote on at the end when the deadline was an issue, what do you think our motivations were at the time (mine moreso than Looker)? Are those motivations consistent with scum?

You never did link me to the game where you were an SK and could joint-win with the scum. I want you to do so because I am genuinely curious. It's such an unusual thing to see in a game that I suspect it was a case of a draw scenario or a non-standard SK win condition, obviously different from a joint win in the sense you were talking about. I noticed that you tried to back out of this with your "if I'm stupid for thinking that..." thing, but I think you just don't want to admit that it was a bad excuse. You don't strike me as a dumb player, you actually strike me as a fairly competent one, so excuse me for doubting your claimed thought process there. If the game you played really did allow for this possibility, I'll concede the point.

@esurio:
What is your take on the thing between me and lew/TMH? You're really the person I am making this argument for. I know you said you wanted to wait for Looker and Andy to post some stuff, but I think this game is riding on your decision at this point.

[esuriospiritus]

So, I asked my brain if it would be willing to deal with this game right now and it responded with a resounding "meh". Post later.

If I'm not mistaken, though, both looker and andrius are dangerously close to the deadline I've imposed upon them.

[The Master Hand]

@esurio: I swear I've nagged him daily. He may be avoiding me. I called him a ho, and he seemed genuinely upset because of it.

@Kdub: Why should lewarcher be suspicion of someone for doing something he himself did? Are you asking him to be a hypocrite?
Why would our conclusion be that "kdub should suspect us?" I'm not trying to defend lew here, as I do find it odd how many things we have agreed upon in this game. However, these questions all seem like things we cannot answer correctly.

Now, I want you to answer these questions:
1) Do you agree that out of all the players who could have been lynched on D5, the mafia would have strongly preferred to lynch the SK over any townie (even one other than thil) because the SK was the biggest threat to them?

No. Vig was still likely, and town-alligned players are more of a threat than 3rd parties. They certainly wouldn't mind an SK death, but if thil had been lynched, there would still be a high chance that the SK would help them by killing another townie. Patb would be lynched, and who would the next target have been? The SK. So I think the way the day did play out actually played more to our favor if it didn't. Still, this question is more of a matter of "from my own experience" and I don't find it to be you trying to discover allignment. Also, your asking someone who has played as scum once as a replacement. Quite frankly, I suck at figuring out what a scum team would want. This isn't a newb card. This is a "wait for Andrius to answer because the bastard said he would like 3 days ago."

2) Do you agree that even if the SK were not lynched on D5, the mafia still would have wanted to lynch a townie other than thil as opposed to thil himself?

cop vs. another townie? If they had figured out esurio was a vig, they may have switched to him, but thil was hands-down the safest lynch. I think we are in a situation where a scum team was very safe, but the whittling down of players had put them into a dilemma. Who are the safest players in the game? Kdub and lewarcher.

3) Do you agree that the mafia, in light of their apparent failed kill attempt on CP D2, likely had reason to suspect that alex was the SK because of that?

They definitely would have taken note of it, but to say they would automatically assume OMGSK.

4) Do you agree that if the mafia either knew or strongly suspected (through whatever means) that alex was the SK, that they would try very hard to get him lynched on D5 because it would give them an easy win by swinging a thil lynch the next day?

Yes.
Do you agree that lynching an anti-town person is pro-town?
Do you agree that town has the ability to catch scum?
Do you agree that town-reads can turn out to be scum?
Do you agree that town could have strongly suspected that alex was the SK, so they would try to get him lynched on D5 because it would eliminate a kill and let them avoid making the decision of choosing to lynch a cop or a sensor, even when they had a town read on both players and it was evident that the cop would end up being lynched?

Your questions basically can only be answered with "yeah, that could happen." But that doesn't mean it did.
-Toast

[Kdub]

I'll respond to your post properly tomorrow, but I just want to highlight the problem I noticed immediately.

Now, I want you to answer these questions:
1) Do you agree that out of all the players who could have been lynched on D5, the mafia would have strongly preferred to lynch the SK over any townie (even one other than thil) because the SK was the biggest threat to them?

No. Vig was still likely, and

town-alligned players are more of a threat than 3rd parties.

4) Do you agree that if the mafia either knew or strongly suspected (through whatever means) that alex was the SK, that they would try very hard to get him lynched on D5 because it would give them an easy win by swinging a thil lynch the next day?

Yes.

Direct contradiction. You don't think the mafia preferred an SK lynch, then you think they would have tried very hard to get him lynched?

[The Master Hand]

So, I asked my brain if it would be willing to deal with this game right now and it responded with a resounding "meh". Post later.

If I'm not mistaken, though, both looker and andrius are dangerously close to the deadline I've imposed upon them.

So I asked my brain if it would be willing to deal with this game right now and it responded with a resounding "no". Post later.

Toast seems to think that Looker is guaranteed scum.
I have no opinion on the matter since my head is still screaming "THIL IS THE FUCKING COP YOU IDIOTS" back in D5 and screaming for pianist's lynch. (HEY GUESS WHAT HE FLIPPED SCUM. <3)
Might read the 20 pages or whatnot sometime soon.
Maybe if I'm bored enough.

-A

[The Master Hand]

eh, looker is only guaranteed scum to me if there are 2 scum remaining. But its risky to make that assumption

@Kdub: see, you were just redundatly asking questions, hoping for a contradiction. I got news for you: Thats not a contradiction. Scum would prefer to kill anyone that they have a lot of information on. In other words, scum would RATHER kill a vig, but if they had a shit-ton of information about an SK, then they would push for that too. Somehow I don't think it was coincidental that esurio was on the "3 of these people are scum" tragedy wagon
-Toast

[Looker]

• Still don't see how I'm guaranteed scum, but whatev.
  
• I'm pretty much down to lynch whoever the confirmed town thinks we should at the moment; I just want this game over with, even if it's me we choose to lynch.
  
• Kinda in the middle of something, so ask me questions; otherwise, I have nothing to say.

[lewarcher82]

• Kinda in the middle of something, so ask me questions; otherwise, I have nothing to say.

are you freaking kidding us? Ok, here come the questions:

(1) your read on me
(2) your read on kdub
(3) your read on TMH
(4) your comments on esurio's play
(5) who do you think is liklier to be scum with PatB?
(6) do you see any connections between living players and dead scum players?
(7) what do you think of bunny's death?
(8) what do yo think of my sk-hunt?
(9) how many scum do you think we have?
(10) setup speculation: what scum role(s) should be still alive in your opinion and why?
(11) do you think that the 1vs1 of thil and PatB?
(12) do you think it was reasonable to assume that Dekes had slashed chk before esurio claimed the kill?

This is just the first portion. I am sure more will come, and not only from me.

• Still don't see how I'm guaranteed scum, but whatev.
  
• I'm pretty much down to lynch whoever the confirmed town thinks we should at the moment; I just want this game over with, even if it's me we choose to lynch.

this is scummy as hell. Esurio said more than once that she thinks you are scum - though she didn't say why - so it is INCREDIBLE to me that you as town on possible lylo would entrust the whole game to someone who thinks you are scum! This is as strong as a scum claim to me.

[Kdub]

No. Vig was still likely, and town-alligned players are more of a threat than 3rd parties. They certainly wouldn't mind an SK death, but if thil had been lynched, there would still be a high chance that the SK would help them by killing another townie.

You aren't thinking deep enough here. Look at this from the SK's perspective. If town is lynched, it is 5:3:1 going into N5. It is very much in the SK's interest to shoot at scum in this case. Why? Because if he hits town, it's 3:3:1 the next day, which is a nearly impossible situation for the SK to win without a huge amount of luck. So given that the SK was likely aiming for scum that night, how would he be any less of a threat than a hypothetical town vig (whose existence was not even a certainty at that point)?

Still, this question is more of a matter of "from my own experience" and I don't find it to be you trying to discover allignment. Also, your asking someone who has played as scum once as a replacement. Quite frankly, I suck at figuring out what a scum team would want. This isn't a newb card. This is a "wait for Andrius to answer because the bastard said he would like 3 days ago."

Completely false. I am not citing a past experience of mine to argue this point, I am flat out pointing out the likely motivations of the scum based on the evidence in

this

game, which you don't need experience to understand. Your past history as scum is irrelevant. In fact, it is your past history as

town

that I expect would give you insight into figuring out scum motivations. That, after all, is the basis of scumhunting.

cop vs. another townie? If they had figured out esurio was a vig, they may have switched to him, but thil was hands-down the safest lynch. I think we are in a situation where a scum team was very safe, but the whittling down of players had put them into a dilemma. Who are the safest players in the game? Kdub and lewarcher.

Remember that the scum have a roleblock. There was no risk of having thil catch anybody because the scum would have just blocked him again. I'm not saying that lynching thil would have been a bad play for them. I am saying that it was a much

better

play to leave him alive in a 1v1 with PatB because it would allow them to control the play and force the town into lynching in a specific manner the next day. I'm not even considering SK possibilities here, do you at least see that lynching thil would have been sub-optimal for the mafia?

They definitely would have taken note of it, but to say they would automatically assume OMGSK.

That's why I said "had reason to suspect" rather than "knew".

Do you agree that lynching an anti-town person is pro-town?
Do you agree that town has the ability to catch scum?
Do you agree that town-reads can turn out to be scum?

1) In general, yes, but when the anti-town person in question is 3rd party or a second scum group, then not necessarily. Ever play in a game before where an SK has been lynched? For the purpose of wagon analysis, you can treat the dead SK as a town mislynch. Do you see why?
2) Yes.
3) Yes.

Do you agree that town could have strongly suspected that alex was the SK, so they would try to get him lynched on D5 because it would eliminate a kill

Yes, I agree with this.

and

let them avoid making the decision of choosing to lynch a cop or a sensor

, even when they had a town read on both players and it was evident that the cop would end up being lynched?

No. I don't know how to make this more obvious to you, so I'm going to answer your question with a question of my own. Do you think that there was any chance in hell that either the mafia would have killed thil on N5, thereby "resolving" the 1v1? If you even think about saying yes, then you are either have a huge lack of understanding of my argument, or you are lying. And if you say no, then you should immediately see what the problem with your question is (hint: I've bolded it).

Your questions basically can only be answered with "yeah, that could happen." But that doesn't mean it did.

Q: Is the sun going to rise tomorrow?
A: Yeah, that could happen. But that doesn't mean it will.

I am not arguing about what is merely possible, as you seem to imply. I am arguing about what is

likely

based on the evidence.

You

are the one who has constantly said "I had X read on this player!" as your defense. I have explained why a scum, in your position, would have taken the same action and used the same excuse you did. This line from you is actually quite hypocritical, because the questions you asked me basically can be answered with "yeah, that could happen" as well. Yes, I think we all know that any of the scenarios you or I have brought up are

possible

. Has absolutely nothing to do with the basis for them.

@Kdub: see, you were just redundatly asking questions, hoping for a contradiction. I got news for you: Thats not a contradiction. Scum would prefer to kill anyone that they have a lot of information on. In other words, scum would RATHER kill a vig, but if they had a shit-ton of information about an SK, then they would push for that too. Somehow I don't think it was coincidental that esurio was on the "3 of these people are scum" tragedy wagon

LOL, trying to trivialize my arguments as "hoping for a contradiction". First of all, it most certainly is a contradiction. My first question made no mention of information or probability of hitting the SK. I was asking, if the scum had a choice between the SK dying and town dying, would they have picked the SK? Second, your point about esurio is garbage. We didn't know, at the time, that she was the vig, and there was no hope of getting her lynched over the other people on PatB's claimed sensor report.

At this point, I really want Andrius to post as well. I want to see his response to my arguments, and how they might be similar or different to yours. Of course, I don't expect to convince him that he is scum, but the manner in which he responds will be very telling to me.

@esurio and Looker
Please contribute something today. I can continue arguing with lew and TMH today, but you guys are the ones I'm really trying to reach. It's frustrating to have my efforts met by indifference from the people who the outcome of the game rests upon, even moreso than if you just disagreed with me.

[The Master Hand]

well, they were trivial.
1)I'm not talking about you.
2) "Do you think its possible that" questions don't mean shit, because it doesn't mean I think its the most likely outcome.
3) Wait, we were arguing?
4) Trust me, I want him to post too. Unfortunately I do not have complete control over what he does. so, you are going to either have to accept this as a one person slot or be VERY patient

-Toast

[lewarcher82]

@esurio and Looker
Please contribute something today. I can continue arguing with lew and TMH today, but you guys are the ones I'm really trying to reach. It's frustrating to have my efforts met by indifference from the people who the outcome of the game rests upon, even moreso than if you just disagreed with me.

aye aye... esurio is the one who has got the hammer, so I guess Looker is the scum partner you are desperately asking for support, now that your encryptor is dead and you cannot prod him with daytalk any longer.

[Looker]

• lew's questions
  • I think you're struggling against kdub and reaching out for anything to help your case, whether it be relevant and/or indicative of someone being scum or not.
  • I think kdub is an excellent disputant and can only hope that he's town. I can see him as scum, but only due to his competent arguments.
  • I think that if TMH is scum, then he's won.
  • esurio's play is irrelevant - she's town.
  • I don't.
  • No, and I don't think anyone else does either.
  • I don't think it should be taken so seriously.
  • I think your sk-hunt can just as easily be attributed to playstyle as alignment. It'd also require me to judge your skill as a player, whether you thought killing the sk was a good idea, whether you just wanted to survive until endgame - all things I don't particularly care about because no solid conclusion can be drawn from them.
  • If we're going by the normal ratio of 1:4, then 2.
  • I can't speculate setup - I don't play theme games nor balance the open games I do play.
  • ...was ridiculous...? Yes.
  • I didn't. Whether it was reasonable to you I don't know.
  • Also, "the whole game"...? O yea, "the whole
    game
    ".

[Looker]

Also, @lew:

• It's posts like your last one that foster the disillusionment of Mafia. All it is is a bunch of folks pointing fingers and making baseless accusations based off of alleged POV and the desire to survive. We're better off rolling dice.

[Looker]

1. Kdub
2. lewarcher82
3. The Master Hand

Original Roll String: 1d4

1 4-Sided Dice: (1) = 1

[Looker]

Scum found.

[lewarcher82]

I think you're struggling against kdub and

reaching out for anything

to help your case

examples of me reaching out for things, please.

It's posts like your last one that foster the disillusionment of Mafia. All it is is a bunch of folks pointing fingers and making baseless accusations based off of alleged POV and the desire to survive. We're better off rolling dice.

srsly, should this be the post of a town-player at endgame? if this is all you see, quit playing mafia and consider bowling instead.

I think you're struggling against kdub and reaching out for anything to help your case, whether it be relevant and/or indicative of someone being scum or not.
I think kdub is an excellent disputant and can only hope that he's town. I can see him as scum, but only due to his competent arguments.
I think that if TMH is scum, then he's won.

so you managed to answer all the 3 questions without taking a position about who you think is town and who you think is scum.

my conclusion: you and kdub are the last scum.

[esuriospiritus]

TMH:

Maybe its because epicmafia shut down that we got all these idiots like him and mist and people. Whatever the reason, its annoying as hell because

when you pull a badass town role you've never pulled before

with one of your best friend and want to enjoy a great game with great players that motivated you to join (looking at you RC, Dekes, esurio, dana) and a NINTENDO THEMED GAME, its really frustrating to see Lelouch vomiting shit out of his mouth all over this thread. Its not cool.

Explain pls.