Mini 1180: Game Over

[Elsa von Spielburg]

Yup, still on the CC wagon. I feel that mastin is town, sure, just like everyone else under the sun, but just because he is obv-town does not mean that every single one of his reads are correct.

Question for CC: How do you feel Gerhard played before you replaced in for him?

[Captain Corporal]

@Elsa
I never really analysed what Gerhard wrote. What's the point? I know my role. I can play it without relying on someone else.

[mastin2]

...Oh, sure.

Choosing the day I go V/LA to respond. (I know, it's almost certainly coincidence, but that doesn't mean it doesn't irk me.)

And in a manner identical to your last catchup post, too, Ald.

Honestly, I could quote my response to your last post and say it contains pretty much the exact same things. In addition to that, there's now condemning interactions with Soben, flailing, fail-logic, active lurking (in the form that a lot of the wall which looks like constructive input...really isn't. At all.), you get the idea.

Just the tip of the iceberg is that he assumes there's no backup plan if one of my scumreads flips scum. (Yoshi if he flips town, {Iron, Alex, Twisted} if Soben were to flip town. But a helpful hint: neither will. I answered this before when Soben asked it of me, but Ald didn't address that.) I could quote any number of things which're wrong with it, too, if I had the time.

(Leaving today, and all that.
Unfortunate as that may be.)

[wierdalexv]

Mastin.

Still tunneling.

But really, what did you expect?

[mastin2]

It's only tunneling if I'm wrong.

[Soben]

http://www.bing.com/images/search?q=spe ... ORM=IDFRIR

Mastin this picture reminds me of your scumhunting.

[wierdalexv]

It's only tunneling if I'm wrong.

This is actually incorrect. The official definition on Tunneling/Confirmation Bias is this:

"Confirmation Bias or Tunnel Vision is when a player becomes convinced by their own arguments by virtue of how long or how strong they hold them. It is a form of Logical Fallacy, much like Appeal to Probability but applying to the person who makes the argument, not their audience.

It is not always a false assumption

, but it can be blinding to new or better options that come along, because they do not match the player's 'pet theory'. "

Note the underlined.



/Technical

[wierdalexv]

EBWOP:

[wierdalexv]

Marathons make me impatient in normal-activity games.

Therefore somebody should post. I hate having to wait.

[Ironhead]

Egad. I'm due to post just to avoid a prod. But not much to say until we get replacements in here; TWIE's replacement has to immediately defend himself, and jilynne's replacement has some explaining to do as well.

[mastin2]

Soben, you should realize I can't view images, here.

Too dang slow. I once tried to watch a half-hour youtube video on this connection. Six hours later, it was only half loaded.

That said, I'm here, now. I'll resume with the Ald Case--got literally nothing else to do except be on mafiascum.net.

[mastin2]

First off. To make things more manageable, I'll be posting the case in ten-page incriments.

For the first part of my case, I'd encourage you to read my old case. On Ald, it only has three lines, but it's worth checking out so I don't have to repeat myself. (To sum it up for those too lazy to check, Tone of his first post, combined with a then-reasonless vote and VCA on page four.) That's as far as I got back then. There's really not much to say about Ald on the early pages, because quite frankly, he wasn't around that much for them.
...Wait, did I say, "early pages"?

Let's amend that statement.

There's not that much (per page) to say about Ald for pretty much the entire game, because (quite frankly) he hasn't been around for almost the entire game. (Lurking, and when he comes in, it's active lurking. His lurking is self-evident. His active-lurking, well, just wait for the case to be finished.)

wierdalexv 2 Gerhard Krause, Darth Yoshi
jilynne1991 3 (L-4) TheWayItEnds, Wiredalexv, WormyKrew
DarthYoshi 2 Alduskkel, Monk
monk 1 Elsa Von Spielburg
Ironhead 1

Secret Project

Not Voting: splitfarvie,

jilynne1991

,

flinter

With 13 alive it takes 7 to lynch!

For the record? I'd expect zero scum to be on (1) wagons at this point. I'd expect one scum on each (3) wagon. WormyKrew takes care of the scum on Jily. (By Proxy, this clears TWIE and Alex.) That leaves split as the scum in not voting, unless you're going for the insane Jily-scum idea. (No. Just No. If you want evidence? Look at how hard WormyKrew was pushing Jily as scum in the rage of pages 4-6. That was NOT bussing, people.) What of the (2) wagons? Combine them and you get a single four wagon. Gerhard/Captain is among those names, sure (another anti-Gerhard/Captain-as-scum is the top of this post, which does not read as scum-scum interactions), as is Yoshi and monk/broken/Twisted. But there's a far more vital name in there, and its presence clears all three others:

Alduskkel.

Side-note for the Soben case, On a re-read, This reads as VERY obvious bussing. (Alex also should get town-points for being the first to point this out. monk/Twisted gets some too.) (Split also fencesat and active lurked.)


Ald's next post is four pages later, post 160.

I just voted you because you confirmed first. Pretty RVS, but it would have been a weak scumtell if you had said you preferred to play as scum.

Simply false: as I said before, if DarthYoshi had claimed to prefer playing as scum then him being the first to confirm would have been scummy.

Now, he hadn't answered my RQ yet, but I figured I'd rather vote someone who might have turned out to have committed a scum tell than Random Guy McPerson.

These are not the same thing. "I voted Yoshi for being the first to confirm. It woulda been a scumtell had you said you preferred to play as scum." That part in both of them is fine. It is the same. The contradiction in here comes from what isn't there. "Pretty RVS". Does not translate to "rather vote someone who might have committed a scumtell rather than Random".

See the contradiction? I do.

160 additionally contains some suspicious interactions with WormyKrew, in the form of Ald's "Hardly".

@Secret Project 104 (not quoting the whole thing): Don't you think it's more likely that Ironhead's posting style change is due to our shift from the goofy RVS/RQS stage to serious mafia business time?

Call it parroting, call it fluff, call it active lurking, call it whatever. This was not new insight, but it was passed off as an attempt to look that way. People had already essentially addressed this as early as Split's post.

Overall jilynne seriously tells newbtown. And her answer to the RQS regarding experience backs that up (6 ongoing, none finished).

Ironhead... doesn't seem to understand the case against him. Secret Project is accusing you of shifting over to more refined/sophisticated posting to seem more pro-town. He calls it "Appeal to Logic" which is a terrible name in my opinion.

Reading this out of context, it looks like great scumhunting, right? Like it contains valuable insight into the game?

Well, sorry to inform you, there's nothing in there which hadn't been said before. From Jily Newbtown to Ironhead. It also contains a bit of hypocrisy, as guess what Ald quotes immediately after that? A post by Ironhead, which he responds to with

This reads as OMGUS to me. Obviously when Secret Project asked if everyone was scum in the game, he was using hyperbole, regardless of his alignment. You're nitpicking grammar and basing a vote off of that and the fact that you think that he thinks you're scummy for being logical. This is not the case.

...Casting weak suspicion towards Ironhead.

161 is also fluff, and more than that, it should have invalidated his vote right then and there if he doubted Gerhard was reading the thread. He didn't unvote then, however, and kept it on.

@Alduskkel: You see Gerhard's derp vote on Jily as a scumtell and not a town tell, why?

That says it better than I ever could.

And now. For the best part ever.

READ POST!!!

Town-
DarthYoshi

Jilynne1991

Alduskkel

Secretproject

Null-
Elsa
Thewayitends
Monk

Flinter

Scum-
Splitfarvle (mainly for a complete lack of goodposting at all. His iso smacks of active lurking)
Weirdalex (I personally had him at null until he was questioned by darthyoshi about his vote on jily. Bad defense is bad.)
Gerhard (super, super scummy post and not helping the town at all)
Ironhead (our vote)

Let me ask you all this: does anyone here disagree with WormyKrew having put one scumbuddy in the town section, and one scumbuddy in the scum section? (Split/Scumhunter/Soben and Gerhard/Captain are both in the scum section.)

It's worthy noting that pretty much all of WormyKrew's suspects were extremely weak, and it REEKS of bussing in there. But what stinks even more is the town-list. Ald had posted pretty much nothing of content at that time--how the heck did WormyKrew get a town-read on Ald? Quite frankly, I do believe WormyKrew just stereotypically followed the "one buddy scum, one buddy town" tactic. This makes all of the Null names town, all of the Town names minus Ald as town, and one of the Scum names as actual scum (Split/Soben), with the others being town. It's almost certainly not Ironhead; those interactions do not look like bussing at ALL. It's VERY doubtfully Alex.
Leaving {Gerhard/Captain, Split/Soben} as containing one scum. You're mislynching Captain, but in doing so, you'll be condemning Soben to death, finally, along with Ald.

Yoshi/Ald containing one scum is pretty much a guarantee. This post where both Yoshi and Ald are mysteriously on the town-list for no apparent reason, kinda solidifies that as one reason among many. And WormyKrew's interactions with DarthYoshi do not give off the scum interacting with scum vibe. (Quite the opposite.) WormyKrew's interactions with Ald suggest...
...
. . .

......WHAT interactions with Ald? (...Yeah.)

wierdalexv 2 Darth Yoshi, TheWayItEnds
Gerhard Krause 2 Alduskkel, Elsa Von Spielburg
jilynne1991 1 Gerhard Krause
DarthYoshi 2 Alduskkel, Monk
Secret Project 1 Ironhead
Ironhead 2

Secret Project

, WormyKrew
WormyKrew 1 splitfarvie,

Not Voting: jilynne1991,

flinter

, Wiredalexv

With 13 alive it takes 7 to lynch!

L+1 on the four (2) wagons means two scum there. One is WormyKrew. The other is Alduskkel.
There's also enough (1) wagons to make me believe one scum is in there. Aaaaaaand...
Once again, the two key figures in there are Gerhard and Split. (The third is Ironhead. Nope, not scum there.)

And that's ten. 11-20 or so is next.

[mastin2]

Ald's next post is 251.

If you're not reading the thread before making a response, you obviously don't care about getting the full information available about your case and vote. Scum, as people not truly interested in catching scum, are more likely to do this.

This is the polar opposite of the truth, and Ald of all people should know this. It's backwards--the people less interested in reading the thread aren't scum. They're town, who're bored. AKA, VTs. (Which fits perfectly with Captain's roleclaim--the slot was playing like a VT. As Secret pointed out, this applied to Captain just as much as Gerhard.) See also: Jily, a perfect example. She wasn't lying when she said she is more interested in the games where she's scum. And if you doubt that's enough, you can also look into me, and realize that this was close to MY belief as well. I put more attention into interesting games. And while if I was under heavy pressure (AKA, close to being lynched), a town-game would be interesting to me, quite frankly, the scum games held my interest a lot more frequently.

It's a frequent town-tell.

??? I can scumhunt and AtE at the same time. I could just build up a decent case but also appeal to emotions (possibly separately).

This was both 1: unnecessary, and 2: condemning interactions with WormyKrew.

Oh god, Newbie 748. What wallful nightmare.

This is another instance of Ald hypocrisy--guess who's been consistently wallposting recently? (Okay, multiple people. But he's among them, and one of the worst.)

[quote"In response to 'if that makes sense', Ald"]No, it doesn't.[/quote] Tone. Exact wording. As town, he would have asked me to clarify. "This isn't making sense--could you re-word it?" or something like that. Instead, he simply flat-out says, "it doesn't". Essentially, flat-out saying, "you're wrong". Not in a town tone, at all. (Town Tone in this case would be saying "Mastin, to be blunt, you're wrong", or something like that. More to the point. Instead, Ald took the subtle approach to say the same thing, AKA, the scum way of discretely discrediting me.)

Secret's issue with Ald here is also quite valid. (Another reason why Secret likely died...)

wierdalexv 2 TheWayItEnds,

Secret Project

,
Captain Corporal 2 Alduskkel, Elsa Von Spielburg
jilynne1991 1 Captain Corporal
Secret Project 1 Ironhead
Ironhead 2 WormyKrew, Monk
WormyKrew 3 (L-4) splitfarvie, Darth Yoshi,

Mastin2

Not Voting: jilynne1991, Wiredalexv

With 13 alive it takes 7 to lynch!

Once more, that's L+1 on the (2) wagons. So once more, there's two scum in there. One of them is WormyKrew, obviously. The other is Ald. (Side-note: with only two (1) wagons, this makes it doubtful that the people there are scum--meaning Captain's far more likely to be town. In other words, that the last scum is likely on WormyKrew at this point.

With regards to the second, I was merely preempting any OMGUS accusations.

I can't find the words to describe just how wrong this statement is. Trying to get rid of OMGUS accusations? When that also implies a (weak) Mastin suspicion never followed up on? When only scum would be worried about being called out on OMGUS'ing in this manner? I dunno, it's. just. so. wrong.

Probably unnecessary, but I figured I'd clear it out of the way without having to possibly waste time on it in the future.

Then why waste the time on it at all, in the present? (Well, past. But then-present.) Wasted time then is the same as wasted time later, with one difference: scum wasting the time earlier reads as overdefensiveness.

(Note to myself: Still waiting for answers to questions in my previous post from DarthYoshi and WormyKrew.)

This is either pointless, or says weak suspicion on both players. Take your pick; either's bad, but it has to be one of them.

Why is this important? Particularly in the case of the latter,

WormyKrew wagon is BS with basically no decent reasoning from anyone except DarthYoshi. I'd say that everyone but DY has to explain their reasoning in their next post.

This would be blatant hypocrisy. Additionally, it is about as blatant as a WormyKrew defense can get.

By the way, I may be in the minority here but I vastly prefer wall-poster-Mastin to doesn't-explain-his-reads-Mastin.

TBH this game feels a little dead ATM. Need more posters other than Ironhead, Mastin, Secret Project, and jilynne. splitfarvle is especially missing, and our mod really needs to prod him if that hasn't already been done. It's been over four days now, more than a little ridiculous.

This is all pointless statements. Except for the last two sentences. Those are important. Take a wild guess as to why. (Hint: it's related to who replaced Split and who my Top Two Scumreads are. )

This post also reeks of BS.

It's also the classic scum excuse. "I'm having trouble because *insertnamehere* is posting too much." is one of the oldest Scum Tricks in the book.

This is important. Secret calls Gerhard/Captain-WormyKrew as an impossible scumteam.

This was also a scum post. Pointless, not scumhunting, degrading my play, trying to weaken my read, casting weak suspicion towards me...I lack the proper words for the exact reason, but those can give you a general idea of just how much scum is in Ald's posting.

Pointless fluff which gives the illusion of being constructive.

Also not constructive.

(...I'm probably going to stop at 20. I'm beginning to lose my ability to explain these things in more detail. AKA, I'm starting to get tired and slightly incoherent.)

1. I don't like what mastin is doing. He just comes in and takes charge. Please, get us that evidence you keep promising us. I will not follow you unless you build a proper case, and neither should anybody else.

While this applies to WormyKrew (in that I was pushing a WormyKrew lynch), it also applies to Ald, because Ald was my second pick, a pick I was also pushing quite hard at the time.

(For the record, alex continues to be town here with the Split point, and a semi-followup here.)

wierdalexv 1 TheWayItEnds,
Gerhard Krause 2 Alduskkel, Elsa Von Spielburg
Secret Project 2 Ironhead, Captain Corporal
Ironhead 2 WormyKrew, Monk
WormyKrew 4 (L-3) splitfarvie, Darth Yoshi, Mastin2, jilynne1991,
Not Voting: Wiredalexv, Secret Project

With 13 alive it takes 7 to lynch!

For the record, it's still L+1 on the (2) wagons, which means it's still two scum there. And it's the same two, WormyKrew and Alex. Which means that the remaining scum is off, and therefore can't be Captain (who's on one of the 2s), and therefore is Split, weakly bussing WormyKrew.

Note, Secret thought Captain was town. I know as scum, I don't kill people calling me town except for intentional WIFOM. ("Secret thought I was town and died!" That kind of thing.)

(Side-note. Must. Resist. Urge. To. Point. Out. Scumhunter's. Scum. Posts. They can wait.)

Obv-bussing is obv. WormyKrew, and a scum-lean on Ald.

Also for the record,

Each player needs to be judged on whether their own playing style is sincere.

I find this quite ironic, in that I've used this piece of advice to nail WormyKrew, Ald, and now Soben as well. (You'll be seeing more on Scumhunter's posts in the Soben case. Needless to say, Scumhunter is not the town player I used to think he was.)

I know, only 25-30% serious, but 25-30% serious is more than enough to get scum paranoid... (This is also accurate, and you'll be seeing a lot more on Scumhunter's post later.)

Obvious scum play. Unvoting WormyKrew (right when the momentum on WormyKrew was beginning to build, AND after stating WormyKrew was a strong scumread), plus wanting to interrogate Ald in a list of three names?
...Yeah, Elsa/TWIE are confirmed town from that alone, due to the "buddy and two townies" tell. Additionally, this is a lot of Ald suspicion which is not followed through on.

[5] WormyKrew ~

Scumhunter

, Darth Yoshi, Mastin2, jilynne1991, Secret Project, Ironhead [L-2]

Scumhunter's vote remaining woulda left WormyKrew at L-1 pages before it ended up actually happening...

[2] Gerhard Krause ~ Alduskkel, Elsa Von Spielburg [L-5]
[2] Secret Project ~ Captain Corporal, WormyKrew [L-5]
(Not listed--2 unvoting: alex and Scumhunter)

At this stage in the game, it wouldn't surprise me to see one scum on each of these.

I still feel like

monk and

Alduskkel are doing a good job of sliding under peoples' radar.

This was also valid.

Not Voting: Wiredalexv, Scumhunter, Captain Corporal, Elsa Von Spielburg

Four people suddenly unvoting? Totally no scum in there! (Hint: not Alex, Not Elsa, and extremely doubtfully Captain. Guess who?)

[mastin2]

/Sleep.

Sorry. I need it.

[Ironhead]

mastin2, it seems to me that each plank in your case revolves around certain assumptions that you accept as absolutely correct. I am unconvinced of your argument because I am very skeptical of your assumptions, such as:

1. "I'd expect zero scum to be on (1) wagons at this point. I'd expect one scum on each (3) wagon."
2. "does anyone here disagree with WormyKrew having put one scumbuddy in the town section, and one scumbuddy in the scum section?"
3. "L+1 on the four (2) wagons means two scum there."

I don't automatically accept such assumptions as the Gospel truth and so to me your argument looks disjointed.

[wierdalexv]

Thats....long.

And that's an extreme understatement, as is saying it's an extreme understatement.

I understand your case and where you're coming from, although I do slightly agree with Ironhead. I would agree with you that 1 scum is most likely to be in the town & scum groups, especially since you pointed out the strange, weak reads to make that.

{Captain Corporal/Soben}; {DarthYoshi/Alduskkel/jilynne1991}
although I still think that Captain Corporal is more likely scum than Soben.

[Soben]

Mastin, have you ever done a math problem that requires multiple steps? That problem is like this game.

Perhaps the question involves the quadratic formula and you think early on that (x = (-b + or - the sqrt (c2 - 4ab)/2a). You base all of your thinking off of this unquestionable truth. You accept it as true and base the other 6 or 7 steps off of that. In the end you end up with x = the sqrt of -144/9 or something ridiculous. But omg, your formula was wrong and x really = 2 instead! How far off would you be. Assuming we were lynched, our flip would be that (-144/9). You would see that result and think to yourself, well gosh that can't be right! Then you would look back and realize omg, that formula was wrong...I was WAY off, time to start all over again.

This parable, essentially is a different way of trying to say what has already been said. Your arguments are logically inconsistent. To say "there has to be 1 scum on such and such wagon" and then to go out and essentially want to lynch the 2 people on that wagon just isn't going to happen. I'm not going to careless support 2 lynches based on such fallacious reasoning.

If you start with a false premise, you will go down a train of thought will end up so convoluted and far from the truth. Always question your reads. ALWAYS. R and I keep on reviewing players even those who we see as obv town, just to make sure we aren't missing something. You desperately need to do that with us.

Mastin, read through our iso with the thought, just the thought, that we were confirmed town. Could you at least envision the world where the posts we make are actually sincere? What then, where would you go from there? This honestly is the most important thing you need to do right now although I have serious doubts as to whether you will do it.

[DarthYoshi]

@Soben, why don't you have a vote out atm?

@Ironhead, why haven't you joined the Ald or CC wagons? If you aren't willing to vote for either--if you had to pick one, which and why?

Between Mastin and Ald, I need to put some serious time in catching up on the walls.

[wierdalexv]

Mastin, have you ever done a math problem that requires multiple steps? That problem is like this game.

Perhaps the question involves the quadratic formula and you think early on that (x = (-b + or - the sqrt (c2 - 4ab)/2a). You base all of your thinking off of this unquestionable truth. You accept it as true and base the other 6 or 7 steps off of that. In the end you end up with x = the sqrt of -144/9 or something ridiculous. But omg, your formula was wrong and x really = 2 instead! How far off would you be. Assuming we were lynched, our flip would be that (-144/9). You would see that result and think to yourself, well gosh that can't be right! Then you would look back and realize omg, that formula was wrong...I was WAY off, time to start all over again.

This parable, essentially is a different way of trying to say what has already been said. Your arguments are logically inconsistent. To say "there has to be 1 scum on such and such wagon" and then to go out and essentially want to lynch the 2 people on that wagon just isn't going to happen. I'm not going to careless support 2 lynches based on such fallacious reasoning.

If you start with a false premise, you will go down a train of thought will end up so convoluted and far from the truth. Always question your reads. ALWAYS. R and I keep on reviewing players even those who we see as obv town, just to make sure we aren't missing something. You desperately need to do that with us.

Mastin, read through our iso with the thought, just the thought, that we were confirmed town. Could you at least envision the world where the posts we make are actually sincere? What then, where would you go from there? This honestly is the most important thing you need to do right now although I have serious doubts as to whether you will do it.

To be fair, he does have a reason to believe he is right on some of these assumptions, such as the 1 scum in the town and scum groups. Mafia isn't an exact game, you need to take some chances and assumptions.

(/inB4 chainsaw)

[Twistedspoon]

can we just lynch ald?

He's the common denominator here

[wierdalexv]

I agree. All tells lead to Ald-scum.

[Soben]

Yoshi, I need to speak with my other half before voting. We will be voting either Ald or CC today though most likely. Although last time we talked we both spoke about a desire to really point out that Elsa isn't all that townie still. We had given her some town points due to isoing WK and seeing his "vig-vote" on her. But if jilynne is really vig, well then I think that means that mafia knew that the vig would be roleblocked anyways so that a vig-vote like that is the perfect type of harmless distancing with no risk.

Reading Elsa's iso we kind of forget why we changed our mind on her the first place.

[Twistedspoon]

I do not support a CC wagon, but he does need to post much more. I need analysis from him

2 replacements are pending so whatever happens happens. The small advantage I see is that it'll make my V/La from next week less noticeable :p

[wierdalexv]

I do not support a CC wagon, but he does need to post much more. I need analysis from him.

I thought you were just voting Captain Corporal a little bit ago?
Yep.

@everyone, Reread CC's interaction with WK and tell me it doesn't make you go O.o He is clearly aware of the WK wagon but doesn't comment on WK's alingment or really try to scumhunt him at all. Proof that he is aware of the wagon is that he stated he wanted to vote WK for pressure, but never explains why, nor follows through on it.

agreed

the CC iso makes him look a far more likely krew buddy in all honesty

VOTE: CC

[Twistedspoon]

Mastin woke me up