[OLD] Open Setup Ideas and Discussion

[Junpei]

Empking that is a poor scenario choice.

Try crunching the numbers for my setup and you'll notice the fun fact that I pointed out.

[Empking]

Empking that is a poor scenario choice.

Try crunching the numbers for my setup and you'll notice the fun fact that I pointed out.

So you think that the odd night Jester is more likey to win based on a day three lynch than a day one lynch? Why the massive change between the two scenarios?

To be honest if you say the Jesters can't win day one then I think my numbers might help your case. (Thoughits enough for me to say that the scum don't stand a snowball's chance.)

[Junpei]

Yes, I do think that if the day reaches day 3 that it is more likely for the odd day jester to be lynched then rather than day 1, the numbers speak for themselves. My setup is much larger, and allows for more data to be calculated in. If you have a point to make about the comparison of the two setups then make it, but I did the numbers for fools' odds and it says that the chance of death is outweighed by the increase in chance to win the game that day.

I think it is possible for the odd day fool to win day 1 although very unlikely.

[Empking]

Very unlikely? With four power roles that won't get lynche then the odds of a Jester lynch (odd day) are 1/12.

(Oh yeah just noticed. In my revious EV post the even-day's chances are based off having the other jester being either odd day or day 1.)

[Junpei]

So you think that none of the PRs will be CCd?

[Empking]

Yes. Because there are only two mafia. And a Vig.

Thought experiment:
2 Mafia, Even Fool, Odd Fool, 1 Vig, 3 Named Townies, 8 Townies
Mass claim straight away.
Odds of Odd fool wining D1: 1/12
Odds of Even fool winniong D2: (slightly less than) 5/66

[Junpei]

Mass claim won't happen for 1 simple reason.

Doc will die at night, vigilante will get RB'd, and the PRs will get picked off by the mafia alone. Or maybe even RB doc kill vigilante.

Doc = won't get CC'd likely
Neighborizer = won't get CC'd in most situations day 1
Hider = could get CC'd, haven't done a lot of thought on this possibility
Vigilante = likely to get CC'd by mafia depending on who it is.

Actually, any of these roles could be CC'd in reality by either team if vigilante is out because mafia RB's vigilante and mafia and fools can cc under the fear of "what if he's the on-day fool?" which comes down to scum hunting moving forward. If mafia sees that a fool has cc'd a PR, he won't kill him at night because as you stated mafia are in a hard spot, and will gladly take the fools' help in agitating town and RB the claimed vigilante.

Really PRs getting CC'd is not unlikely at all which will stall any sort of early claiming strategy from town. I suppose your next argument would be "what if all roles except for vigilante claim?". Well then town loses 3 PRs and while the odds of hitting fools and mafia go up, the town gimp themselves more than I'd think they'd allow.

[Empking]

The Vigilante would get CC'd?
CC by Fool.
Lynch someone else. Vig kills fool. Instant loss.

CC by Mafia:
Lynch someone else. Vig gets roleblocked/killed. Town lynches Mafia. Terrible decision.

[Junpei]

well actually

CC by fool.
Lynch someone else for the time being. Mafia RBs Vigilante. Sooner or later consider lynching a vigilante claim as mafia gambit. Win.

CC by mafia.
Lynch someone else for the time being. Mafia RBs Vigilante. Mafia gambit may pay off.

[Empking]

well actually

CC by fool.
Lynch someone else for the time being. Mafia RBs Vigilante. Sooner or later consider lynching a vigilante claim as mafia gambit. Win.

Oh yeah, I forgot how the Mafia wanted the Jesters lynch in order to lose. Duh!

CC by mafia.
Lynch someone else for the time being. Mafia RBs Vigilante. Mafia gambit may pay off.

No because they'll be lynched. The more you know!

[Junpei]

Hmm.. I'm mafia and fool has just cc'd vigilante.

I can

1) Let fool die

2) RB vigilante and keep fool alive, thus keeping the town occupied with the fool (whom I now know is a fool) while I peck at their intestines and kill their PRs. At any point I may decide to kill the fool and keep RBing the vigilante if I worry he will get lynched. Or (if we add rolecop 1 shot on the nilla) I could rolecop the fool to learn his specific days so I can try to screw him into a no-win situation.

[Junpei]

Oh, also if you think that

>someone ccs vig

>vig is roleblocked

>lynch the cc that is mafia

is realistic then I think you're forgetting that fools can get helped out with a RB too for reasons stated.

[Empking]

Junpei: Mafia do not want the jesters to win. They lose if that happens. They don't want to lose. They want to win!

[Junpei]

Junpei: Mafia do not want the jesters to win. They lose if that happens. They don't want to lose. They want to win!

Empking: Mafia do not want town to win. They lose if that happens. They must weigh the risk of jesters (when you know at least 1, and when you know his identity it makes it easier to discern which day they want to be lynched) against the risk of other town PRs. I think the decision is easy, as town not knowing who their vigilante is and being afraid to lynch them because of fools is a big blow to town.

[drmyshottyizsik]

3x Mafia Goons

8x Townies
2x Ability givers

The ability givers may give anyone an ability, I don't know which ones yet, but mafia may receive these abilities as well, they may not use it on them selves, and no ability can be used twice.

[Empking]

Junpei: Mafia do not want the jesters to win. They lose if that happens. They don't want to lose. They want to win!

Empking: Mafia do not want town to win. They lose if that happens. They must weigh the risk of jesters (when you know at least 1, and when you know his identity it makes it easier to discern which day they want to be lynched) against the risk of other town PRs. I think the decision is easy, as town not knowing who their vigilante is and being afraid to lynch them because of fools is a big blow to town.

Town lynches a Vig Claimant the next day. Just give me that.
When a fool claims: This means that is the Mafia do not allow the Vig to kill that they have a 50% of just losing (presuming Mafia don't try and knowingly kill a Jester.)
This is a risk that the scum don't want to take.
This means that if a Jester claims they will not roleblock the Vig.
This means the fools will not claim Vig.

Which bit do you disagree with.

[drmyshottyizsik]

Emp thoughts on mine?

[Junpei]

1/2 x 1/2 chance (2 fools) = 25% chance to lose from a mafia standpoint. Also why would town lynch a vigil claim when they could just hunt the mafia RB and then use the vig to kill the cc instead. Unless you're saying that the vigilante cc is the RB. So yes I see why they might decide to lynch the CC. However I think it'd be beneficial to just hunt the other mafia (nilla) in that situation and then if after he's dead either vigil will have a shot or RB will not be able to kill.

[Empking]

Shotty: I can't judge without knowing what ability. I'd reccomend an investigative role. I'd reccomend even further some sort of Vanilla Town Cop.

Junpei: What about 2 fools?
They lynch the Vig claims because that stops the mafia from roleblocking (which only has a 50% chance of working by the by (two claimants)) which stops the fools from claiming.

[drmyshottyizsik]

3x Mafia Goons

7x Townies
1x Vanilla Townie Cop
1x Odd Night Aggressive Ability Giver Mason
1x Even Night Passive Ability Giver Mason

Aggressive Ability Giver Abilities: Bomb, PGO, and Day Vig
Passive Ability Giver Abilities: Commuter, Unlynchable(Person doesn't know), and Guard

If one of the Ability Givers dies then the other Ability giver gets their unused abilities, but may only still use them on their night.
If the Vanilla Townie Cop investigate someone who has been given an ability then the result if not a VT.

[Empking]

Unlynchable = Bad
Apart from that it looks cool.

[Junpei]

Shotty: I can't judge without knowing what ability. I'd reccomend an investigative role. I'd reccomend even further some sort of Vanilla Town Cop.

Junpei: What about 2 fools?
They lynch the Vig claims because that stops the mafia from roleblocking (which only has a 50% chance of working by the by (two claimants)) which stops the fools from claiming.

I don't get it. Are you saying that a 25% chance to lose on one day is not bad?

Also >roleblock right and learn 2 overall roles. roleblock wrong and kill/RB vigilante from now on. Worth it when you consider the other options are doctor RB (long shot), neighborizer RB (might not even be something you want to do) and hider RB (who you don't even know is doing anything that night).

[drmyshottyizsik]

Fixed

3x Mafia Goons

7x Townies
1x Vanilla Townie Cop
1x Odd Night Aggressive Ability Giver Mason
1x Even Night Passive Ability Giver Mason

Aggressive Ability Giver Abilities: Bomb, PGO, and Day Vig
Passive Ability Giver Abilities: Commuter, Jailkeeper, and Guard

If one of the Ability Givers dies then the other Ability giver gets their unused abilities, but may only still use them on their night.
If the Vanilla Townie Cop investigate someone who has been given an ability then the result if not a VT.

[Empking]

Shotty: I can't judge without knowing what ability. I'd reccomend an investigative role. I'd reccomend even further some sort of Vanilla Town Cop.

Junpei: What about 2 fools?
They lynch the Vig claims because that stops the mafia from roleblocking (which only has a 50% chance of working by the by (two claimants)) which stops the fools from claiming.

I don't get it. Are you saying that a 25% chance to lose on one day is not bad?

What?

Also >roleblock right and learn 2 overall roles. roleblock wrong and kill/RB vigilante from now on. Worth it when you consider the other options are doctor RB (long shot), neighborizer RB (might not even be something you want to do) and hider RB (who you don't even know is doing anything that night).

RB right and you have a good chance of giving a Jester a win and possibly forced to waste your night kill to keep the fool from winning.

Day X: 50% chance of lynching Fool. 50% of it being his day. Jester Win.
Day X: 50% chance of lynching Fool. 50% of it not being his day. The only good scum situation.
Day X: 50% of not lynching Fool. Forced to waste their night kill killing the Fool.

When you're better off missing then its better not to shoot.

[Empking]

Fixed

3x Mafia Goons

7x Townies
1x Vanilla Townie Cop
1x Odd Night Aggressive Ability Giver Mason
1x Even Night Passive Ability Giver Mason

Aggressive Ability Giver Abilities: Bomb, PGO, and Day Vig
Passive Ability Giver Abilities: Commuter, Jailkeeper, and Guard

If one of the Ability Givers dies then the other Ability giver gets their unused abilities, but may only still use them on their night.
If the Vanilla Townie Cop investigate someone who has been given an ability then the result if not a VT.

I think that's cool.