Mini 1217 - Campaign Mafia (Game Over!)

[Twistedspoon]

This is just a though, but scum would know when the topic was about to be reopened

*looks at packbat and hiplop*

anyways, johog has always been obtown and pom scummier and less contributuing

VOTE: johog

[Twistedspoon]

regfan, why are you stalking me =|

[Pomegranate]

I've been thinking about this, and I think it favors scum to volunteer first, so that scum have control over the scum nomination as well as the townie going against the scum nomination. Thoughts?

Also, so much Wifom.

[Duplicity]

Twistedspoon, I'm not stalking you, I can assure you of that much. I think this setup is actually heavily town sided, if we can all agree upon three town reads it's automatic win. Essentially the setup encourages people to discuss their town-reads a lot more and our ultimate goal is to come to a consensus or agreement on them which is highly intriguing.

Still waiting for Shift to get online but I'm almost certainty voting Johhog at this point and I want either Shadow or Hip nominated tomorrow, I think both are town. I'm leaning towards Lurc and Quilford being scum as well though last I spoke with Shift about the game he had a strong scum read on Quilford and a mild town-read on Lurc so we'll need to discuss that today.

[Packbat]

Judging by the players who have voted so far, I am once again inclined to vote Pomegranate. Shadow Dancer and Twistedspoon were L-1 and hammer on Timeater.

[Duplicity]

I've been thinking about this, and I think it favors scum to volunteer first, so that scum have control over the scum nomination as well as the townie going against the scum nomination. Thoughts? Also, so much Wifom.

If you're town you would and should be certain that Johhog is scum and nominated first therefore you'd be certain that mafia believed it was in there best interest to self nominate. The fact that you're posing this as a question rather than a statement reads as you attempting to subtly hint towards your direct counter claim being mafia rather than outright saying it.

[Pomegranate]

I've been thinking about this, and I think it favors scum to volunteer first, so that scum have control over the scum nomination as well as the townie going against the scum nomination. Thoughts? Also, so much Wifom.

If you're town you would and should be certain that Johhog is scum and nominated first therefore you'd be certain that mafia believed it was in there best interest to self nominate. The fact that you're posing this as a question rather than a statement reads as you attempting to subtly hint towards your direct counter claim being mafia rather than outright saying it.

Firstly, it wasn't posed as a questions, and secondly, I don't know how scum are thinking through this game, because I'm town and have been approaching it with that perspective. So I don't know if that's what they're thinking or not, but I'm going for a logical reason that Johhog is scum that should make sense to everyone, not just to me, because I know I'm town.

[Duplicity]

@ Packbat -

You're going to need to explain that because I'm struggling to follow your logic there. From what I gather you're saying X and Y voted to elect mafia therefore I don't trust X and Y and wish to vote the opposite of them. This fails because of two things:

A) Mafia know they need secure three elections therefore they aren't likely to pile on their teammate as it would lead towards them not being able to win elections past the first one so the logic of X and Y were on the mafia election thus likely mafia falls on it's head.

B) If mafia did all pile on their partner on the first election they would know their image is bad therefore they are likely to consider voting the town player almost instantly on future days to deter other people voting them and therefore increase the likelihood their partner gets elected with no blood on their hands.

@ Pomegrante -

It was posed as a question thus the question mark at the end of thoughts. You wanted to see other peoples opinions on the subject to see if they either agreed or not. If you truly believed that self-nominating was scum motivated you'd have stated that action by him would be a reason to why he's mafia but you didn't. The fact you're attempting to speculate over if his nomination is 'scummy' or not is what makes you mafia. You should be certain that he's mafia therefore you should be able to read through his actions throughout the game (Excluding the nomination because majority of that was due to pressure) and point out scum motivation on them or scumtells that he has dropped, you're not doing that at all.

To put it simply, what have you done in this game that should make me believe you're town and change my mind and what has Johhog does that I should be highly suspicious of and focus reading into?

[Pomegranate]

@ Pomegrante -

It was posed as a question thus the question mark at the end of thoughts. You wanted to see other peoples opinions on the subject to see if they either agreed or not. If you truly believed that self-nominating was scum motivated you'd have stated that action by him would be a reason to why he's mafia but you didn't. The fact you're attempting to speculate over if his nomination is 'scummy' or not is what makes you mafia. You should be certain that he's mafia therefore you should be able to read through his actions throughout the game (Excluding the nomination because majority of that was due to pressure) and point out scum motivation on them or scumtells that he has dropped, you're not doing that at all.

To put it simply, what have you done in this game that should make me believe you're town and change my mind and what has Johhog does that I should be highly suspicious of and focus reading into?

I wanted to see other people's opinions to see if there was some facet of the scenario that I was missing (possibly one that scum might see more clearly). And you said that I should point out what he's done that's been scummy, but why do you exclude the nomination? I think his self-nomination was definitely scummy, because for starters, off the top of my head, he didn't wait for everyone in the game to post, and there was a consensus that no one should self-nominate until everyone had posted. Also, why are you saying that his nomination came out of pressure, and more importantly, why do you need to stick up and say it for Johhog? Because if that was the case I'm sure he'd be more than willing to explain it himself.

[Twistedspoon]

Judging by the players who have voted so far, I am once again inclined to vote Pomegranate. Shadow Dancer and Twistedspoon were L-1 and hammer on Timeater.

pom was an early vote, but a major force and tunneled on maru if you want to use that logic

[Johhog]

I did reread at one point during the night, and someone (I think it was Twistedspoon or Quilford) said that there probably was more town than scum on the Maruchanwagon because it was D1. I don't agree. Maruchan was such a VI that scum could easily pile up on him, get a couple of townies on the wagon and ride to victory.

When Maruchan flipped town they could just brush it off with "He deserved it", "His own fault, he cut the discussion short" and "He was extremely scummy" kind of defences. Therefore I'm inclined to think that there is only two townies on the Maruchanwagon. FTR, it would be nearly impossible for there to only be one townie on the wagon, that would require all scum to be on that wagon.

Of these, Pomegranate is confirmed scum FMPOV and looking at the wagon Lurconis is most likely scum. I stand by my firm belief that Twistedspoon is town, which leaves Quilford and Shadow Dancer as wildcards, one of them is probably scum. Quilford is scummy, but I'm apparently the only one seeing this and the issue about the PM times do give him town points. Shadow Dancer's gambit is interesting, and let's see what it will lead to, but it could also be scum not wanting to give town any content to work with at this stage.

I also think that one scum would want to be off the wagon. Who is the ones not on the wagon then? Well, it's me, and I'm confirmed town to myself, hiplop, whose play has been town so far, Duplicity, whose play is even more town right now and... Packbat. Looking at the votecount and his desire to not be on the lynch wagon makes him scummy to me. Yesterday I also saw a connection between him and Pomegranate, but I can't really point out posts with that connection right now, so it's just a vague gut feeling fuelled by my belief that their word exchanges seems... fake. Yeah guys, I think I just found scum number 4 here.
---
What's that you say? There's only three scum left? Oh yes, you're right. This brings up some interesting possibilities. I'm nearly sure that Packbat is scum, and Pomegranate is confirmed scum FMPOV, so it's only one of Lurconis/SD/Quilford that is scum. Considering this, I would say Lurconis, but I admit that this is just a vague gut feeling, and we have to keep an eye on SD and his gambit. I think I will for now regard Quilford and his PM time investigations as town. Also, I *think* that SD is town right now because a gambit like that would be pretty risky.

The scum is:

Pomegranate (Confirmed)
Packbat (90% sure)/hiplop (5% sure)/Duplicity (5% sure)
Lurconis (55% sure,)/SD (35% sure)/Quilford (8% sure)/Twistedspoon (2% sure)

Usually I think that Mafia shouldn't be broken down to numbers, but I'll make an exception here as this game has some quite special mechanics.

[Twistedspoon]

Judging by the players who have voted so far, I am once again inclined to vote Pomegranate. Shadow Dancer and Twistedspoon were L-1 and hammer on Timeater.

in fact johog wasn't even on that wagon at all, even better than pom

this logic is very broken packbat. >:(

any excuse to not vote the obvtownie

pom has done little or nothing to convince me she is town
Johog has done everything and more

[Johhog]

Um, so ya, with my final conclusion it turns out that there only was

two

Mafia on the Maruchanwagon. I probably did count wrong somewhere.

[Johhog]

EBWOP: I get it now, Timeater didn't vote. Hm, with some translation of my post you should probably still be able to get what I mean. The point is, 2/3 of the active Mafia was on the Maruchanwagon at lynch. Packbat probably unvoted when he saw Timeater wouldn't appear to avoid having all Mafia members at the bandwagon at lynch.

[Duplicity]

@ Johhog -

You state that you have a scum-read on Quilford, if so then why is his 'odds' of being mafia 8%? I would actually love it if you could elaborate into your Lurc scum-read because it's one that I'm sharing but being unable to determine where my suspicion of him stems from.

@ Twistedspoon -

I was thinking a similar thing. Packbats logic reads strongly as scum attempting to find an (illogical) excuse to vote their partner though I'm interested in hearing his response to how his logic is incredibly flawed.

@ Pomegrante -

Discussion about whether mafia are likely to self-nominate or not is meaningless. If it's determined that they are likely to then it's less likely they will do so tomorrow and so the useless wifom game begins. Further Johhogs self-nomination was caused by Twistedspoons questioning whether people were highly suspicious of Johhog yesterday or not. The low amount of suspicion cast towards him made him an ideal nomination regardless of his alignment therefor ehim being nominated isn't a scum-tell at all. The fact that you're attempting to subtly throw suspicion towards me instead of actually convincing me that you're town is laughable at best.

[Johhog]

@ Johhog - You state that you have a scum-read on Quilford, if so then why is his 'odds' of being mafia 8%? I would actually love it if you could elaborate into your Lurc scum-read because it's one that I'm sharing but being unable to determine where my suspicion of him stems from.

Regarding Quilford I'm not really sure what I read him as. He is overall more town though and "scummy" probably wasn't the best word (I meant more like suspicious). Mostly it's because SD and Lurconis is scummier.

Regarding Lurconis I can't really tell, I use my gut a lot and don't really use evidence. I basically agree with a lot of his posts, but it seems, I don't really know how to put it, maybe not constructed but polished in some way. I wish I could answer you on this one. He was also quick to jump on the Maruchanwagon when it still looked like a quickwagon without any suspicions stemming from it. This is the scumread I'm not sure in however, it can still be SD or maybe even Quilford.

[Shadow Dancer]

Hi, Duplicity.

[...]I also strongly disagree with Shadow, although only two people can be voted today there's no need to limit discussion to them and them only. Doing so lets mafia know the very specific action they have to fake and leads towards a lot less information to use when deciding who should be nominated or voted for election in future days. We should most certainty be nominating town-reads though because doing so gives us a good idea of who we'll likely elect whereas electing a scum-read will not help at all if mafia nominate another scummy player to up against them.

Nononononono! Scum has the second pick and the upper hand in WIFOM. I don't want them to know which of their candidates would actually be elected in advance and you shouldn't want that either. It is really that simple.
You can stil read people based on what they are posting about the candidates, their voting behaviour etc. But keep it to yourself until it actually matters.
The "mafia knows what to fake" point is invalid. I never found scum based on

what

they were doing, but a hell lot of them based on

how

they were doing it. Fake is fake, no matter what you fake. Just playing along an agreement never brought any one town points.

Fixed some tags.
-Crazy

[Shadow Dancer]

Firstly, it wasn't posed as a questions, and secondly, I don't know how scum are thinking through this game, because I'm town and have been approaching it with that perspective. So I don't know if that's what they're thinking or not, but I'm going for a logical reason that Johhog is scum that should make sense to everyone, not just to me, because I know I'm town.

This is a very interesting post. Do you know why? Because I have been thinking very hard all the time about this one thing: What scum would best do to win this game. And now I am asking myself how you could end up on the wrong side of the "know your enemy" game.

[Crazy]

Vote Count:

Johhog

(2) - Shadow Dancer, Twistedspoon

Pomegranate

(0)

Not voting

(5) - Packbat, Duplicity, Lurconis, hiplop, Quilford

The first candidate to receive 4 votes will be elected.

Deadline is

August 25th

.

[Shadow Dancer]

[...]
Pomegranate (Confirmed)
Packbat (90% sure)/hiplop (5% sure)/Duplicity (5% sure)
Lurconis (55% sure,)/SD (35% sure)/Quilford (8% sure)/Twistedspoon (2% sure)

Usually I think that Mafia shouldn't be broken down to numbers, but I'll make an exception here as this game has some quite special mechanics.

And what about the special mechaics of this game makes it especially and exceptionally prone to be broken down to numbers like that?

[Quilford]

Hmmmmm.

[Pomegranate]

V/LA until Sunday.

[Duplicity]

@Johhog -

I don't understand the scum-read or considered scum-read on SD. The motivation behind his suggestions reads as geninue town but I see where you're coming from in regards to Lucr now and it's highly similar to my thoughts on him.

@Shadow Dancer -

Mafia have more information than town players just from the get go therefore information being shared and revealed is nearly always more beneficial for the town than the mafia. Don't get me wrong, I understand you're saying about giving them limited information to base their decisions of but consider it this way. It's guarenteed that a town player will die and no longer be able to post at the end of the day therefore the only opportunity they have to provide their reads and thoughts is now. This means that mafia already have information to base their decision of and it also means that there's minimal reasoning behind other people refraining from stating their reads. Further tomorrow discussion will have to occur about who will self-nominate and this information will also give them something to base their choices of. Overall there's no reason to refrain from outing information when mafia are likely to already have or hold it.

Just spoke with Shift and he has no qualms or disagreements with my suspicion of Pomp and also considers Johhog to be obvious town so I have no reason to refrain from voting though I will ask that no one hammers until all thoughts and information that need to be discussed today are done.

Vote: Johhog

[Shadow Dancer]

@Dup: Wrong. At game start mafia was utterly ignorant concerning almost everything about this game aside the rather trivial fact who the actual scum are.
Best thing for town would have been to keep it just this way, forcing mafia to act blindly, making this a game of uninformed majority vs. uniformed cowardly minority who desperately need to hide to not be stomped in endgame.

I hate how every one just switches into mafia-auto-pilot mode, playing this like any other game of mafia, as a game of disoriented majority vs. fully informed minority, absolutely disregarding the fact that we have a special lynch mechainc in place that paves the way for a much more effective and efficient approach (simply put, you cannot just tunnel on a random subgroup of two players and get a guaranteed 50% scum probability on both of them in any normal game).

[Packbat]

Couple things.

First: I'm finding this entire game incredibly frustrating, primarily because there is essentially

no town

for any townie to count on - half the players in the game are scum, so it's a bear trying to get a sense of what the

real

townies are thinking.

Second: I think Shadow Dancer has the right of it. If the Mafia have no reads on the townies to go by, then the Mafia can't nominate scummy townspeople

or

towny scum.

Oh, and

Johhog is at L-1

. Just mentioning it in hopes that we won't have another ridiculously short day.