Hoopla wrote:
SCIENCEis probably unbalanced given we used to run a 2 mafia, 2 Masons, 7/8 Townies variant of Friends and Enemies.
0.4ish EV is hardly imbalanced.
Empking wrote:zoraster wrote:how did you arrive at .4 EV, Emp?
Firstly, I said ish. I wrote down the possibilities that lead to a town win and added them up.
zoraster wrote:Empking wrote:zoraster wrote:how did you arrive at .4 EV, Emp?
Firstly, I said ish. I wrote down the possibilities that lead to a town win and added them up.
But what assumptions did you make? Because if it were just random lynch then you should have gotten 22.86% EV. Obviously an adjustment needs to be made for the masons, but how did you account for that?
I'm not ready to believe this is an optimal strategy. I'll test it later against:Empking wrote:1. If a mason is run up both masons claim.zoraster wrote:Empking wrote:zoraster wrote:how did you arrive at .4 EV, Emp?
Firstly, I said ish. I wrote down the possibilities that lead to a town win and added them up.
But what assumptions did you make? Because if it were just random lynch then you should have gotten 22.86% EV. Obviously an adjustment needs to be made for the masons, but how did you account for that?
2. Nobody else claims.
3. Masons automatically claim D2.
4. Scum kill any any claimed masons.
Vi wrote:I'm not ready to believe this is an optimal strategy. I'll test it later against:Empking wrote:1. If a mason is run up both masons claim.zoraster wrote:Empking wrote:zoraster wrote:how did you arrive at .4 EV, Emp?
Firstly, I said ish. I wrote down the possibilities that lead to a town win and added them up.
But what assumptions did you make? Because if it were just random lynch then you should have gotten 22.86% EV. Obviously an adjustment needs to be made for the masons, but how did you account for that?
2. Nobody else claims.
3. Masons automatically claim D2.
4. Scum kill any any claimed masons.
1. If a Mason is run up, they claim.
2. If scum is run up, they will claim Mason.
3. If scum claims Mason, they will be counterclaimed.
4. A claimed Mason will not be lynched without a counterclaim.
5. A claimed Mason will die during the next Night (or as soon as possible in the case of multiple outed Masons)
6. Scum will not counterclaim Mason unless it would improve their win rate.
7. If there are multiple Masons alive, scum will only counterclaim at LyLo for a 50/50 shot at the win.
If both Masons claim D1, the Town is disadvantaged quite a bit if they actually do lynch scum that Day (though their chances are still pretty good). If they lynch Town, though, it doesn't make a difference.zoraster wrote:i actually think emp's makes more sense. I started to post what you did, Vi. But considering how short the game is, masons should probably either claim (if run up) as a pair or not. That way any player that claims mason without a pair is lynched.
It's not, upon reflection. Scum have a much better chance of winning if they don't counterclaim, so they won't.wrt 7, I'm pretty sure that that's not the optimum strategy. (2/3 compared to a 1/2 for scum).
It does, actually.In general though, I don't see that strategy you propose do much better then mine (It'll still be what I call 40ish).
Llamarble wrote:I promise full analysis of 2 masons 2 scum 1 VT sometime soon.
The ruling on balance is that we don't know what balance is, objectively speaking.Hoopla wrote:What was the ruling on PieE7's balance? What is the ruling on SCIENCE's balance? I want to push on.