Toy Story Mafia (Day 9)

[Oversoul]

last post of the night for me

Spyrex wasn't in danger of being lynched. Ray or DeathNote are probably going to be the only two people today that will receive my vote

[farside22]

@Oversoul:

Why did you claim to be on V/LA, but are however posting through-out MS without a problem?

post per day for oversoul

I'm not unvoting till this gets answered and OMG I agree with diddin. Wonders never cease me.

[Rainbowdash]

Screw it

Unvote
Vote Oversoul

Go for the claw. No pony hammer yet though since NtW still needs to activate.

[Scott Brosius]

Vote Count 3-12

bobsnox

(0)-

Blonde Doctor

(0)-

DeathNote

(2)- Juls, jmurph3,

diddin

(0)-

farside22

(0)-

Flavour Analysis

(0)-

inHimshallibe

(0)-

jmurph3

(0)-

Juls

(0)-

kunkstar7

(0)-

mikehart

(1)- bobsnox,

NanookTheWolf

(2)- SpyreX, Flavour Analysis,

Oversoul

(5)- PeregrineV, diddin, farside22, kunkstar7, Rainbowdash,

PeregrineV

(0)-

petroleumjelly

(0)-

Rainbowdash

(0)-

Ray Montano

(1)- Oversoul,

SpyreX

(0)-

TheJakalope

(2)- Ray Montano, NanookTheWolf,


Not Voting (6)- Blonde Doctor, DeathNote, mikehart, inHimshallibe, petroleumjelly, TheJakalope,

With 19 alive, it's 10 to a lynch.

Deadline is September 10th at 3pm EST.

Replacing mikehart

[/b]

[SpyreX]

Also, @Spyrex: flavor for your claim? Also, I'm not too familiar with PGOs, but are you saying that you only shoot if you're lynched? Who then do you shoot (as there will clearly be more than one person on your wagon)?

As many as I want out of those that target me, of course. I can't give the flavor away though it needs to remain a ~mystery~

Diddin is the Henry Kissinger of 2011 and we should all listen to him.

[Ray Montano]

My apologies I'll be posting tonight after training.

[Rainbowdash]

I am confused in this game so will just try this concious stream of thought thing and see if that can't snap me into something.

On the nieghbors, I really dislike the role, no offense to the mod or anything like that but this is something that I am never going to be able to perform all that well with because its a paranoia enducing role in that its neighbors and also that im a vig which I would prefer not to be since I would rather see reactions instead of shoot more or less blindly at other poines. Then we have the nieghbor interactions. Heck I almost want to say that NtW is the more likely town one here because of what I said earlier about him willing to activate the claw as he gets lynched which would mean that as scum he is giving town two cleared ponies and they have a vig shot that even with a roleblocker scum would not be guarenteed to stop. Farside I have a town read on, but actually find myself constantly talking her out of killing who I think is town which just causes more paranoia there even though I have to think that we are all town in the end due to the alternate win condition of ours. Given that we are vig-neighbors and not regular neighbors I do not know what the lack of kills on us really mean since I could easily see it being scum not being too afraid since they know what we are thinking or just having kills on us blocked ala something along the lines of the JK from FA on the second night or whatever Bogre did on the first night. So I would say its very high chance that both NtW and farside are town here, argueably higher chance that NtW is town. This is my first time actually saying this to anypony, so im sure that im going to take shit for this in the QT, but ive been thinking about it since early in the NtW wagon.

Then we have the ponies that I think are town. That would be FA for his kill on soda, which was one of our choices for a vig kill. I think he has been somewhat foolish with his actions depending on what he is hiding from us, but its a town role and the one action that is proven in the vig kill as opposed to N2 which could have been blocked off me or bob-BP ate the NtW kill, was an obvious town shot. No way scum or SK does something like that for town credit. It just doesn't happen often enough to even seriously consider.

Bob is town nearly for sure to me, probably second strength town read, which is why I have a little bit of an issue having TJ hide behind him instead of somepony I think is scum, but if its going to be the only way to make other ponies happy with him riding out to the end of the game, I will go through with it. The mod has used the same role in the past on a mane character, the standard scum-BP role is dead, there are THREE claimed vigs alive, I call him town.

Who next? Juls. Silver is town for the derp response to me saying that kendall was day vigged and flipped town. Really think that was just a VI read, and the catchup from Juls makes me think town as well, even though I really disagree with a few of her reads. Not seeing scum who I explicitly just call out for a lynch doing that as much, again I know somepony will cry WIFOM, but based with the inattentiveness of Silver I just think town in the long run.

Diddin I have no damn clue why I think he is town, which is really starting to scare the crap out of me because that tend to be the pony I have been reading wrong the entire game who somehow just got on that section of my list and stayed there. Looking back I should have a slight town read on him at best, he was on Umbrage early, was part of the jump to Peregrine, the jump to DJ, but I guess he was first back on the Umbrage wagon. Dunno, I really have a hard time giving him as much town credit as he has in my notes when I break it down. Sure he is probably town but he isn't as high as I had him.

I still think kendall was town derp. Umbrage never came off him and he actually latched right onto Umbrage as well. I don't think that those two ponies would bus like that especially since Umbrage flipped PR.

Spy gets the diddin treatment yet is more likely to be scum out of the two, why am I calling him town? Probably because he is one of the only other ponies who can get stuff done. Look at the D1 play though - Umbrage starts off behind DJ in suspicion, Peregrine is scum for grabbing the prize. Really not sure where the town actions as opposed to town for getting stuff done comes from. PJ flips scum and he is town though, can kick him up to lean town if oversoul is scum which gut still says he isnt. Dislike his treatment of the Beck/BD slot as well.

Peregrine is town mostly due to the lack of death of FC N1 I think. The kill wasn't there, we have him claimed and whatever it is Bogre did. Statistically I think thats about a 50-50 of him being town, worst case a third protective role and still 1/3. Good odds when Bogre may not have even gone for protective aspect of his role. That and I see little reason to call him scum apart from that. Its enough to boost him from null to town lean.

Rest later, going to bed. Tired, up in six hours. Threw out just about all of my weak town reads. Eat null list ponies.

~Town~
NtW
Farside
Juls
FA
Bob
Inhim

~Prob Town~
diddin
Peregrine

~Null~
Spy
kunk/chk
oversoul
DN
PJ
jmurph

~Scum Lean~
Blonde Doctor
mike

~Scum~
TJ - Dead by N4 at latest
Ray

[Ray Montano]

Also just so no one's confused I'm in Beijing so tonight is about six hours from now. Post with actual content coming then!

[petroleumjelly]

Vote: FlavourAnalysis

. Long post, would like thoughts.

1.)

I just finished reading the portion of the game after FourseenCircumstance claimed his “Watcher” result. I didn’t really catch any posts I was looking for (specifically, scum who might have been surprised that FourseenCircumstance had a result). But:

2.)

After rereading that portion of the game, I am now

seriously

questioning FlavourAnalysis. On Day Two, he was essentially

forced

into claiming Vigilante given FourseenCircumstance’s’ “result”; any other claim would have made him look highly suspect, given that he was seen targeting a player who had died.

As I noted earlier, this Vigilante claim directly contradicts his breadcrumb of Cop. Right now, I am thinking FlavourAnalysis has the safe-claim Woody. And so naturally, FlavourAnalysis breadcrumbed the most obvious role that Woody would be: a Cop / Sheriff.

Except he is now stuck claiming something else. Up until now I’ve been largely trying to suppress the feeling that this is bull, but I have come full circle back on this. I’ve been waiting for

years

to catch scum crumbing one role and ultimately claiming another. And now that it’s happened, I’ve almost let myself get talked out of it.

I think the strong pushback against FlavourAnalysis after he claimed 1-Shot Vig probably prompted him to rethink his claim over Night Two. And with PeregrineV conveniently laying out all of the possible things Woody could be on Day Two, FlavourAnalysis’ tweak on his claim on Day Three to being a JOAT seems like a fairly organic move for scum. Personally, I half-expected him to say something like “I lied about being 1-Shot,” but obviously scum would not be able to keep up that charade for very long, especially with a sole kill on Night Two, and

especially

not after the Aliens claimed.

The fact that FlavourAnalysis did not adjust his claim to JOAT until

after

the Aliens claimed also suggests that he might have done some quick recalculating: after all, why would a Town with a 3-Man Vigilante need a 1-Shot Vig, too? Had the Aliens not claimed, it is entirely possible the FlavourAnalysis would not have expanded on his claim at all. And given that he claims to have jailkept a player on a night when we are apparently

missing a kill

, that does not seem like a natural thing to do at all.

Additionally, I absolutely do not understand why he would “jailkeep” Rainbowdash on Night Two, despite his explanation for it. But I can certainly see why scum might have wanted Rainbowdash role-blocked last night.

As it stands, I honestly doubt FlavourAnalysis “jailkept” Rainbowdash.

Much

more likely is that he (or his scum partners) simply roleblocked Rainbowdash. But obviously FlavourAnalysis couldn’t claim that he just

roleblocked

Rainbowdash, so he went with the gentler, and more easily explainable claim: jailkeeping.

Finally, if FlavourAnalysis is really a town JOAT, why even jailkeep on Night Two? Presumably, a JOAT would have other and far safer options, such as some sort of investigatory role.

~

Now. FlavourAnalysis, would you mind explaining why you think RainbowDash is scum? After that, could you explain why you think NanooktheWolf is scum?

[Oversoul]

Farside, unlike any of my other games, there was an analysis that was required of me in this game. The massive amount of reading I had to do for this game is what kept me away because I didn't want to say anything that I would later retract.

Take it as you want, I don't really care. You keep getting hung up on minor things. I want to vote FA based on his play, but I can't find the courage to do so. If they really did give Woody as a JOAT fakeclaim then ugh, but I don't like Petrol's role fish in his accusation against FA.

Gah. I'm not on top of my game.

[farside22]

Oversoul: I don't consider someone saying they are on V/LA and posting elsewhere minor. Actively lurking is a scum tell. Take that as you like.
Why did you feel the need to "breadcrumb" your role instead of scum hunting when you were here? What change your mind from not believing rainbow's role claim to calling her town?

@Rainbow: I had a list of suspects night 2. I stated my issue with Silver and why. You had your point and I listened. I also stated I would have rather killed BD over others I mentioned that night.

[DeathNote]

Vote: Over

[PeregrineV]

Heading to work meeting right now. Will have more later today (night).

[SpyreX]

1983 is REALLY good.
1984 is REALLY not.

Rainbow I feel your pains about the swarm of lukewarm reads.

[Oversoul]

Vote: Over

Why we aren't lynching you?

Farside, I wanted to crumb because I rarely ever do it and I wanted to start to see if anyone would pick up on any of it. Hard to say. I also replaced in with 60 pages worth of reading so scumhunting was kinda out of the question at that point.

[PeregrineV]

@Oversoul- See, voting wasn't so hard, was it?

Since I'm addressing multiple others, I'llmake this generically. Rainbow, thank you for finally posting something normal. I agree with the Bob thing, but his day1 stuff was ultra-scummy, and he hasn't fully redeemed himself in my eyes for that. And I don't think he's trying real hard to do so. Which pisses me off if he is really town.

Anyways, I feel similar to PetroJ about FA. Plus, he apparently responded to the prod via Mod, but hasn't posted in here when prodded (like Over and InHim did). While not evidence in and of iteself of scum, it's adds to the suspicion.
If everyone that wants too can go back through FA's claims, posts, etc. and independently verify his actual actions, I'd like to compare everyone's notes. Otherwise, he seems to be claiming whatever works for him, and that looks too much like scrambling scum.

I will do a complete player list as I think it will help organize my thoughts and maybe spur thoughts from others.

[Juls]

I could be down for a FlavourAnalysis lynch as well. Not a fan of the Oversoul lynch.

[Rainbowdash]

I could be down for a FlavourAnalysis lynch as well. Not a fan of the Oversoul lynch.

Where did the soda kill come from though in that case?

Don't get me wrong, I think he is playing poorly with his actions, but I still think that he is town because of that kill.

[Juls]

FA.
Her role may exist, it might not be town aligned however.

[Rainbowdash]

FA.
Her role may exist, it might not be town aligned however.

Scum-JOAT with a vig kill?

Unlikely.

[Juls]

Why wouldn't scum be allowed a 1-shot extra vig in a large theme?

[Juls]

Also, don't forget there wasn't a mafia kill that night.

[Rainbowdash]

Why wouldn't scum be allowed a 1-shot extra vig in a large theme?

And use it on easy mislynch? Why not just blast some random townie.

Also, don't forget there wasn't a mafia kill that night.

And soda would have been the scum kill?

I don't buy it. I dislike how FA has played his role but I don't buy a JOAT-scum that has a vig power.

@everypony

- No more Oversoul votes. NtW hasn't activated the claw yet.

[Oversoul]

I take it you want me lynched Rainbow?

Yay...

[diddin]

We should massclaim tomorrow, methinks.