Mini 1217 - Campaign Mafia (Game Over!)

[Shadow Dancer]

I honestly thought I would be heading into this long weekend with a completed game on here. I really feel if you read my iso and shadows iso it is apparent who is town.

On my way to work please post any questions you have for me today as depending on wildfires I may be V/LA from later today through Monday.

Too bad for you. Why again should we rush a lynch for your convenience?

I'm not sure whether this is townie or not considering that town wouldn't lose the game if mafia were elected at the moment.

Hurrr.

I need to look at lurc's ISO. And I'm now worried about Packbat voting for Lurconis.

Then let me explain this: From the three of you that are left for I can tell tell right now (i.e. pre reread) I am almost sure Dup is town, I think a dup nomination would win this for tow even if you mislynch me. However in this constellation Dup mishammering me would be the worst possible outcome for town by discrediting him.

fuggit

I just meta'd SD and he's more active and obvious than this as town

but I don't know why scum would present such a weird plan

and I want to know why Dup's feeling angsty about Lurc

That shouldn't surprise you. I never play "my ISO". I am a player that approaches each game on its own basis. And I decided that the special lynch mechanics of this game required a nonstandard approach. I have always been transparent about this to you. You might not agree with it, but you should at least concede that I justified it.

I have no time to ISO tomorrow, it's only 27 pages, half of that from dead players, but it'll still need some time. I am confident that I can manage it on Sunday.

[Duplicity]

I much rather this doesn't come to another day, I'm highly limited in time and having to deal with a three way lylo would be frustrating painful especially with the game on the line. We're not rushing today, end of. I'll explain my hesitation in voting Lurc and doubts that I have later (Brothers 18th birthday + Fathers day are today and tomorrow) but hopefully I come back to seeing a lot more content here.

[Lurconis]

@Shadow I didn't ask for a quick lynch I asked people to post any questions they had for me so I didn't leave this weekend and you twist my words as you've been doing since you'be been nominated and quoting things out of context. I specifically said I would be back Monday which is before the deadline.

It looks like my V/LA will only be until Sunday.

Our reads differ on one thing I am sure Quill is for sure town he has been coming from what seems like pure belief stance even when he has been wrong, like in johog's case, it seems like a true town mistake not a scum pulling wool over our eyes trick.

With that I am off to the woods. I may have connectivity for an hour or so tomorrow but should be back Sunday evening.

[Quilford]

So guys I was just thinking it would be a good idea not to be deadlined

[Packbat]

So guys I was just thinking it would be a good idea not to be deadlined

Not a concern: September 7 is Wednesday - everyone will be back from V/LA by then.

[Quilford]

we're wasting time waiting for people to return; this will ultimately make the decision harder

[Packbat]

The decision looks pretty easy to me. You have yet to offer a satisfying reason why anyone should vote for Shadow Dancer, and in the process of hunting for one, you yourself have admitted that there is reasonable cause for voting Lurconis.

[Shadow Dancer]

Just in short for now: I am almost absolutely sure now that Pack is the last scum and that Quil and Dup are town.
I'll elaborate on it more tomorrow when I have more time.

[Packbat]

Just in short for now: I am almost absolutely sure now that Pack is the last scum and that Quil and Dup are town.
I'll elaborate on it more tomorrow when I have more time.

Please note that this is exactly what scum is forced to say in this situation.

[Duplicity]

All of my commitments end this afternoon/evening so I should be able to elaborate on my thoughts then.

[Shadow Dancer]

Just in short for now: I am almost absolutely sure now that Pack is the last scum and that Quil and Dup are town.
I'll elaborate on it more tomorrow when I have more time.

Please note that this is exactly what scum is forced to say in this situation.

Please note that this is exactly what scum is forced to say in this situation.

(Sorry... This is funny, I couldn't withstand the temptation... I mean the

this

could really be a self reference to that post... I guess I have a weird humour)

[Shadow Dancer]

OK, quite some long posts incoming. I think I'll have a look at the general flow of votes first, than have a closer look at the roles that Lurc and Pack play in the sceme of things in particular and finally I'm going to briefly comment on why I thin Quil and Dup are town. I have abpout half an hour, so not sure if I can manage all of it today, if not the rest will definitely come tomorrow.

[Shadow Dancer]

So let's start with a look at the general flow of votes:

I.Maru vs. Time

Maruchan

(1) - hiplop

Timeater

(4) - Quilford, Packbat, Pomegranate, Lurconis

Not voting

(4) - Tovarish, Johhog, Twistedspoon, Shadow Dancer

Quilford votes for Time pretty soon and it becomes immidiately clear that maru's anti-town play would cause an almost undisputed wake of outrage against him. So Pack, Pom and Lurc all jumping onto the waggon in short succession cannot surprise, even if all three of them are scum, after all it was both in scum's best interest to vote their buddy and even by far the safer and more unquestionable spot to put one's vote.

Maruchan

(1) - hiplop

Timeater

(5) - Quilford, Pomegranate, Lurconis, Shadow Dancer, Twistedspoon

Not voting

(3) - Tovarish, Packbat, Johhog

Packbat unvotes after his buddies stacked on the waggon and it becam apparent that town would drive it through without much scum interference required...

II. Joh vs. Pom

Johhog

(2) - Shadow Dancer, Twistedspoon

Pomegranate

(0)

Not voting

(5) - Packbat, Duplicity, Lurconis, hiplop, Quilford

The Joh waggon starts of with two fast town votes on it.

Johhog

(3) - Shadow Dancer, Twistedspoon, Duplicity

Pomegranate

(1) - Packbat

Not voting

(3) - Lurconis, hiplop, Quilford

A third town vote on the Joh waggon, things get pretty narrow for scum. Packbat, obviously destined to play the role of "bad scum" tries to establish at least somewhat of a counterdynamic - for more than shady reasons (more aout that later).

Johhog

(3) - Shadow Dancer, Twistedspoon, Duplicity

Pomegranate

(2) - Packbat, Quilford

Not voting

(2) - Lurconis, hiplop

Quilford, predisposed to fall for bad scum WIFOM, falls for it, however, it's still pretty bad for scum and they'd have to stack all their votes to succeed in pushing the Pom waggon through, which would eventually and almost inevitably expose them to suspicion on all of them.

Johhog

(4) - Shadow Dancer, Twistedspoon, Duplicity, Lurconis

Pomegranate

(2) - Packbat, Quilford

Not voting

(1) - hiplop

So Lurc decides to think in longer terms and go for some easy town credits on an already unstopable ttown waggon by quickhammering Joh.

III. Twosted vs. Hip

Twistedspoon

(1) - Lurconis

hiplop

(0)

Not voting

(4) - Packbat, Duplicity, Quilford, Shadow Dancer

Hip was obviously picked by scum for supposedly having realistic chances to beat Twisted, not to get rid of dead weight. However, scum also have to take into consideration that they'd eventually have to win at least one more election to have any chances of victory. There only halfway promissing candidate left is Lurc and another shady vote would not look good on him, so he decides that he'd better play it safe this time and be the first one on the town waggon.

Twistedspoon

(1) - Lurconis

hiplop

(1) - Packbat

Not voting

(3) - Duplicity, Quilford, Shadow Dancer

Now it's starting to become interesting. I withhold my vote to see what Pack would do if he cannot bring forth connective WIFOM to justify a misvote - and unsurprisingly he places it on hip, equaling out the waggons (double voting Twisted would have obviously been a terrible move for scum), justification for the vote? - nil.

Twistedspoon

(2) - Lurconis, Shadow Dancer

hiplop

(1) - Packbat

Not voting

(2) - Quilford, Duplicity

I place my vote as planned....

Twistedspoon

(3) - Lurconis, Shadow Dancer, Quilford

hiplop

(1) - Packbat

Not voting

(1) - Duplicity

Twistedspoon has been elected. He was a

Townie

.
hiplop has been lynched. He was

Mafia

And Quilford hammers...

IV. Lurc vs. Shadow

Lurconis

(1) - Quilford

Shadow Dancer

(0)

Not voting

(2) - Packbat, Duplicity

Quilford spontaneously votes Lurc...

Lurconis

(1) - Packbat

Shadow Dancer

(0)

Not voting

(2) - Duplicity, Quilford

And guess what happens when people actually try to question their votes and start real scumhunting? Packbat's there to try and safe the day by voting his scum buddy.

---

If this little abstract did not convince you or you think I just mention the one interpretation among many that seems to suit me the most - then you'll have to wait for my further analysis on individual player behaviour.

[Quilford]

Thanks for that wonderful dump of IIoA.

[Packbat]

I wouldn't call it IIoA - it's useless, agreed, but it's useless because storytelling is not a reliable method of inference. Here, watch:

---

I.Maruchan vs. Timeater

When Timeater received two rapid votes for quicknomming, particularly when those votes seemed well-justified, scum!Pomegranate decided that it was an opportune moment to join in on the mislynch wagon. hiplop, naturally, set himself in opposition to separate himself from the eventual flip, but when one of the townies (Packbat) unvoted from the wagon to open up the floor for more discussion and showed no sign of returning any time soon, scum!Shadow Dancer decided to drop the L-1 vote to make it easier for a townie to hammer.

II. Johhog vs. Pomegranate

Shadow Dancer quickly voted for the townie for towncred, but when Duplicity caught Pomegranate out with a blatant scumslip, decided that he had to leave his vote there for the lynch.

...interesting. That makes Quilford the obvious scumpartner, as he followed Packbat onto Pomegranate in hopes that the Johhog support wasn't as strong as it appeared. Unfortunately, Packbat was the only idiot idiotic enough to vote for Pom, and the last townie walked in for the hammer.

Unless, of course,

Duplicity

is the obvious scumpartner, because he placed a vote on Johhog in a bow to the inevitable and wasn't before the townie hammer to see that Pomegranate wasn't quite dead.

III. Twistedspoon vs. hiplop

Lurconis drops an immediate vote on his stronger townread, Twistedspoon. Packbat continues to be a tool and votes the wrong guy, Duplicity following through either foolishness (if town) or avarice (if scum). Shadow Dancer drops a towncred vote on the townie. And, if Quilford is scum, Quil tries to take advantage of the apparent strength of the scum wagon, but reflexively votes the wrong way, accidentally giving town a second election.

IV. Lurconis vs. Shadow Dancer

Either:

Quilscum drops a towncred vote on the townie, hoping there will be no early hammer. Duplicity pretends to hammer. Quilford points out the fakeness of the vote to protect his partner, then unvotes before Packbat can hammer and cost him the game.

or:

Quiltown drops a vote on the obvious candidate. Dupliciscum pretends to hammer so he can get towncred for the gambit. Quilford is WIFOMed out and backs off.

---

Why, look at that!

It sounds just as plausible!

[Packbat]

Also: I found another error in #639 -

Crazy, would you please replace the number 353 with 535 in that post?

Fixed.
-Crazy

[Lurconis]

You keep acting like my hammer on Johog came out of nowhere I said I thought he was town I announced my intention to hammer and then I hammered.

At this point and I can't believe I'm saying this but I think Quill and Pack are town and dup is scum. Scum knows I can't win today as if I do it is game over for them. They wouldn't risk voting me and having a town quick hammer me. Quill voted me and Pack said he was thinking about hammering then dup post his fake vote thing, I'm guessing SD and Dup had that planned out in QT fortunatly quill called him out on it first ruining any plan they had.
On that note as quill pointed out in post 660 SD says that Dup just lost town the game, town isn't in lylo right now scum are in lylo town can't lose the game today so why would you say that?
Anyway then Dup says he doesn't feel comfortable with me yet doesn't say why nor does he place his vote on SD. Why is this? Why would town not want to point out what he finds scummy about me, at this point in the game it is in towns best interest to reveal any hangups they have about either candidate so it can be examined by everyone it makes no sense to hold back info. He ends up saying he has RL stuff going on which is fine and understandable but you are a hydra dup neither head would of been able to post anything? I am going to look into the meta of your heads to see if you were active elsewhere during that time. Will post the results in a few hours.
Quillford buys dups Wine and unvotes and then pack votes. With everyone thinking pack is scum already he would of had no reason not to hammer earlier if we were scum partners.
Then we are back to the present with SD's misguided vote analysis.
I would like to point out that in the Twisted vs hiplop vote you were purposly holding off voting. You said you didn't want anyone using the i'm not voting if shadowdancer is voting them sort of stuff. What indication did you have at all that would happen. It seems to me like you were hoping to buy some time without committing to a vote.
Anyway reads as they stand: ShadowDancer (Confirmed Scum) Duplicity (Scum) Packbat (Village Idiot) Quillford (Town)

[Packbat]

Anyway reads as they stand: ShadowDancer (Confirmed Scum) Duplicity (Scum) Packbat (Village Idiot) Quillford (Town)

I wish I could contradict you. :/

(Not actually sure which of Duplicity and Quilford is scummier.)

[Duplicity]

What I came across upon my re-reading that made me strongly doubt Lurc-town was Post #377. It reads as scum feeling like they're caught due to the wrong reasons and attempting to over-explain how all of those don't make them mafia when the truth of the matter is peoples suspicion of him would be meaningless at the time considering he wasn't up for election or nomination. He went out of his way to attempt to defend himself to the degree where it strongly overpowered and previous attempts at scumhunting. (Shifts been telling me that over-defensiveness isn't a scum-tell but rather moreso a newb-playstyle indicator but I disagree.)

Anyway then Dup says he doesn't feel comfortable with me yet doesn't say why nor does he place his vote on SD. Why is this? Why would town not want to point out what he finds scummy about me, at this point in the game it is in towns best interest to reveal any hangups they have about either candidate so it can be examined by everyone it makes no sense to hold back info. He ends up saying he has RL stuff going on which is fine and understandable but you are a hydra dup neither head would of been able to post anything? I am going to look into the meta of your heads to see if you were active elsewhere during that time. Will post the results in a few hours.

Stating the reasoning right away doesn't help stimulate scumhunting at all, it just directs discussion and lets mafia know what angle they have to deal with. Allowing conversation to run smoothly and naturally means that reactions and interactions are much more relevant. You can 'Look up our posting-meta' all you want but it does nothing other than continue to strengthen my suspicion of you. If you're town you know that having yourself elected ENDS the game meaning you wouldn't care what our posting meta is or not but for lolshitsandgiggles read around, I've had limited time for this site in the last week or so and inactivity nearing lylo/in lylo is a common occurrence for me.

I'm still nowhere near ready to vote, there's a lot more I want to read into but this "Storytelling" as Packbat puts it needs to stop, those actions can be manipulated into presented any angle to look likely. Going to have a few more conversations with Shift tomorrow (He's gone to bed I think) and we should start reaching a consensus soon, we need to make sure not to miss this deadline and I'd rather not risk it ending in a no-election.

[Quilford]

I'm very ready to vote Lurconis and if there is a next day I will certainly be nomming myself.

[Quilford]

VOTE: Lurconis

[Quilford]

Why the fuck did I do that.

[Quilford]

this is why gut > logic I guess

[Shadow Dancer]

VOTE: Lurconis

Retard.

[Shadow Dancer]

Quil might be scum in fact, if any one other than Dup nominates he needs quick and clean rope.