Mini 1217 - Campaign Mafia (Game Over!)

[Quilford]

yep, in hindsight I should've gone with the 'no scum would do something so blatantly anti-town as keep their talking to a minimum'

[Quilford]

So let's start with a look at the general flow of votes:

I.Maru vs. Time

Maruchan

(1) - hiplop

Timeater

(4) - Quilford, Packbat, Pomegranate, Lurconis

Not voting

(4) - Tovarish, Johhog, Twistedspoon, Shadow Dancer

Quilford votes for Time pretty soon and it becomes immidiately clear that maru's anti-town play would cause an almost undisputed wake of outrage against him. So Pack, Pom and Lurc all jumping onto the waggon in short succession cannot surprise, even if all three of them are scum, after all it was both in scum's best interest to vote their buddy and even by far the safer and more unquestionable spot to put one's vote.

Maruchan

(1) - hiplop

Timeater

(5) - Quilford, Pomegranate, Lurconis, Shadow Dancer, Twistedspoon

Not voting

(3) - Tovarish, Packbat, Johhog

Packbat unvotes after his buddies stacked on the waggon and it becam apparent that town would drive it through without much scum interference required...

II. Joh vs. Pom

Johhog

(2) - Shadow Dancer, Twistedspoon

Pomegranate

(0)

Not voting

(5) - Packbat, Duplicity, Lurconis, hiplop, Quilford

The Joh waggon starts of with two fast town votes on it.

Johhog

(3) - Shadow Dancer, Twistedspoon, Duplicity

Pomegranate

(1) - Packbat

Not voting

(3) - Lurconis, hiplop, Quilford

A third town vote on the Joh waggon, things get pretty narrow for scum. Packbat, obviously destined to play the role of "bad scum" tries to establish at least somewhat of a counterdynamic - for more than shady reasons (more aout that later).

Johhog

(3) - Shadow Dancer, Twistedspoon, Duplicity

Pomegranate

(2) - Packbat, Quilford

Not voting

(2) - Lurconis, hiplop

Quilford, predisposed to fall for bad scum WIFOM, falls for it, however, it's still pretty bad for scum and they'd have to stack all their votes to succeed in pushing the Pom waggon through, which would eventually and almost inevitably expose them to suspicion on all of them.

Johhog

(4) - Shadow Dancer, Twistedspoon, Duplicity, Lurconis

Pomegranate

(2) - Packbat, Quilford

Not voting

(1) - hiplop

So Lurc decides to think in longer terms and go for some easy town credits on an already unstopable ttown waggon by quickhammering Joh.

III. Twosted vs. Hip

Twistedspoon

(1) - Lurconis

hiplop

(0)

Not voting

(4) - Packbat, Duplicity, Quilford, Shadow Dancer

Hip was obviously picked by scum for supposedly having realistic chances to beat Twisted, not to get rid of dead weight. However, scum also have to take into consideration that they'd eventually have to win at least one more election to have any chances of victory. There only halfway promissing candidate left is Lurc and another shady vote would not look good on him, so he decides that he'd better play it safe this time and be the first one on the town waggon.

Twistedspoon

(1) - Lurconis

hiplop

(1) - Packbat

Not voting

(3) - Duplicity, Quilford, Shadow Dancer

Now it's starting to become interesting. I withhold my vote to see what Pack would do if he cannot bring forth connective WIFOM to justify a misvote - and unsurprisingly he places it on hip, equaling out the waggons (double voting Twisted would have obviously been a terrible move for scum), justification for the vote? - nil.

Twistedspoon

(2) - Lurconis, Shadow Dancer

hiplop

(1) - Packbat

Not voting

(2) - Quilford, Duplicity

I place my vote as planned....

Twistedspoon

(3) - Lurconis, Shadow Dancer, Quilford

hiplop

(1) - Packbat

Not voting

(1) - Duplicity

Twistedspoon has been elected. He was a

Townie

.
hiplop has been lynched. He was

Mafia

And Quilford hammers...

IV. Lurc vs. Shadow

Lurconis

(1) - Quilford

Shadow Dancer

(0)

Not voting

(2) - Packbat, Duplicity

Quilford spontaneously votes Lurc...

Lurconis

(1) - Packbat

Shadow Dancer

(0)

Not voting

(2) - Duplicity, Quilford

And guess what happens when people actually try to question their votes and start real scumhunting? Packbat's there to try and safe the day by voting his scum buddy.

---

If this little abstract did not convince you or you think I just mention the one interpretation among many that seems to suit me the most - then you'll have to wait for my further analysis on individual player behaviour.

By the way, SD, this made me not vote for you

It was pure recounting

[Quilford]

Anyway reads as they stand: ShadowDancer (Confirmed Scum) Duplicity (Scum) Packbat (Village Idiot) Quillford (Town)

anyway now we have this delicious bit of WIFOM to deal with

*braces for Duplicity's wrath*

[Quilford]

No, all we will do is tell scum whom

they

should nominate. They are overhelming in numbers, thaey have the second pick and they can beat any town strategy.

So I won't discuss non-nominated players. And I won't nominate players to volunteer because that would require me to give my reads.

I trust no one. It's the only winning strategy. The sooner you realize this the better.

This idea is so dumb, though.

[Quilford]

Also the WIFOM of 'would Packbat really vote all the scum players as scum'.

[Quilford]

Oh well, pretty sure Duplicity's scum.

[Quilford]

Pretty sure I'll be up against them tomorrow, too

[Shadow Dancer]

I'll spare you the rest of my analysis, Dup has enough brain of his own I guess and It'd be lost on whoever of the other two is the last town anyway, I've got better things to do with my time.

yep, in hindsight I should've gone with the 'no scum would do something so blatantly anti-town as keep their talking to a minimum'[/quil]
If you are town what you should have done "in hindsight" is waiting for the rest of my analysis, where I point out how blatantly Lurc was bussing his alleged buddy Pack (dominant tactic if scum can influence the timing of their flips!) and how both of them where trying to misrepresent my approach when rushing a lynch or vote or general scummy lurking seemed appropriate for them... Just to name some highlights.
How Packbat's pseudo-WIFOMy justifications for his votes can almost impossibly come from a townie doesn't need further explanations, I guess. You'l have do the work yourself now.

By the way, SD, this made me not vote for you

It was pure recounting

Did you miss the part where I promissed the actual justifications for today? One of the most important virtues for playing mafia is patience.

Anyway reads as they stand: ShadowDancer (Confirmed Scum) Duplicity (Scum) Packbat (Village Idiot) Quillford (Town)

anyway now we have this delicious bit of WIFOM to deal with

*braces for Duplicity's wrath*

Yeah, the most likely town is suddenly scum, the guy he bussed all game is now just VI and poor newbie Quilford gets his ration of buddying...

Also the WIFOM of 'would Packbat really vote all the scum players as scum'.

Yes, he would, Pom and Hip nominations were aimed at winning and not dropping dead weight. Scum never wanted to drag this out so long and having one member consistently vote "wrong" while bussing him is not the worst thing to do, especially if you can pick a newbie for the task.

[Shadow Dancer]

@Crazy: Please fix the tags.

Fixed.
-Crazy

[Quilford]

Shadow Dancer, don't give me this 'I've got better things to do with my time' bullshit, you were clearly our weakest link -- scumreads on you were near universal and you absolutely refused to post anything resembling content until you were under the knife.

Screw patience, I wanted a flip.

[Quilford]

Vote Count:

Maruchan

(1) -

hiplop

Timeater

(4) -

Quilford

, Packbat,

Pomegranate

,

Lurconis

Not voting

(4) - Tovarish,

Johhog

,

Twistedspoon

,

Shadow Dancer

The first candidate to receive 5 votes will be elected.

Deadline is

August 17th

.

Vote Count:

Maruchan

(1) -

hiplop

Timeater

(5) -

Quilford

,

Pomegranate

,

Lurconis

,

Shadow Dancer

,

Twistedspoon

Not voting

(3) - Tovarish, Packbat,

Johhog

Timeater

has been elected. He was

Mafia

.

Maruchan

has been lynched. He was a

Townie

.

It is now

Day 2, Morning.

You have until

August 18th

for someone to volunteer.

Vote Count:

Johhog

(2) -

Shadow Dancer

,

Twistedspoon

Pomegranate

(0)

Not voting

(5) - Packbat, Duplicity,

Lurconis

,

hiplop

,

Quilford

The first candidate to receive 4 votes will be elected.

Deadline is

August 25th

.

Vote Count:

Johhog

(3) -

Shadow Dancer

,

Twistedspoon

, Duplicity

Pomegranate

(1) - Packbat

Not voting

(3) -

Lurconis

,

hiplop

,

Quilford

The first candidate to receive 4 votes will be elected.

Deadline is

August 25th

.

Vote Count:

Johhog

(3) -

Shadow Dancer

,

Twistedspoon

, Duplicity

Pomegranate

(2) - Packbat,

Quilford

Not voting

(2) -

Lurconis

,

hiplop

The first candidate to receive 4 votes will be elected.

Deadline is

August 25th

.

Vote Count:

Johhog

(4) -

Shadow Dancer

,

Twistedspoon

, Duplicity,

Lurconis

Pomegranate

(2) - Packbat,

Quilford

Not voting

(1) -

hiplop

Johhog

has been elected. He was a

Townie

.

Pomegranate

has been lynched. She was

Mafia

.

It is now

Day 3, Morning

. The deadline is

August 28th

.

Vote Count:

Twistedspoon

(1) -

Lurconis

hiplop

(0)

Not voting

(4) - Packbat, Duplicity,

Quilford

,

Shadow Dancer

The first candidate to receive 3 votes will be elected.

Deadline is

August 31st

.

Vote Count:

Twistedspoon

(1) -

Lurconis

hiplop

(1) - Packbat

Not voting

(3) - Duplicity,

Quilford

,

Shadow Dancer

The first candidate to receive 3 votes will be elected.

Deadline is

August 31st

.

Vote Count:

Twistedspoon

(2) -

Lurconis

,

Shadow Dancer

hiplop

(1) - Packbat

Not voting

(2) -

Quilford

, Duplicity

The first candidate to receive 3 votes will be elected.

Deadline is

August 31st

.

Vote Count:

Twistedspoon

(3) -

Lurconis

,

Shadow Dancer

,

Quilford

hiplop

(1) - Packbat

Not voting

(1) - Duplicity

Twistedspoon

has been elected. He was a

Townie

.

hiplop

has been lynched. He was

Mafia

.

It is now Day 4, Morning. Deadline is

September 4th

.

Vote Count:

Lurconis

(2) - Packbat(,

Quilford

)

Shadow Dancer

(0)

Not voting

(1) - Duplicity

The first candidate to receive 2 votes will be elected.

Deadline is

September 7th

.

[Quilford]

Lurconis, that was a freakin stupid move.

Quil and Pack are town. I'm having trouble getting a read on Duplicity.

For reference.

[Quilford]

ShadowDancer (Confirmed Scum) Duplicity (Scum) Packbat (Village Idiot) Quillford (Town)

also for reference

[Quilford]

Lurconis, that was a freakin stupid move. Quil and Pack are town. I'm having trouble getting a read on Duplicity.

Why the fuck did you attempt to theorize over whether Johhog self nominated as scum instead of actually convincing me you were town. Jesus fucking christ.

Relatively sure TS is town, don't think he'd have suggested to have his scum partner be nominated. Quilford is scum who voted Pom to get town-cred, unsure on Packbat now though. Lurcs hammer on Pom is opportunistic scum without a doubt though.

I was just so sure Johog was town and pom scum...

As was I, before replacing in I was following this and was near positive of Pomscum and Johhog town and Poms reaction towards being nominated near solidified that but her post-hammer comment is making me feel really nervous.

yyyyyyyyeah these are town posts

Duplicity should nominate themselves

[Quilford]

...

I don't knowwwww

[Packbat]

I still think Lurconis is town, honestly.

[Packbat]

I'd probably want Duplicity to self-nom too.

[Crazy]

Vote Count:

Lurconis

(2) - Packbat, Quilford

Shadow Dancer

(0)

Not voting

(1) - Duplicity

Lurconis has been elected. He was

Mafia

.
Shadow Dancer has been lynched. He was a

Townie

.

It is now

Day 5, Morning

.

[Packbat]

I will not self-nom.

[Duplicity]

Fuck sakes, I don't understand the need to hammer at that point yesterday. Lurc was getting forced into a corner when it came to having to explain his attempts at 'gaining reads' elsewhere rather than pushing for his election which town would have done if it looked likely that they'd be elected on a town autowin position.

This game really needed to end yesterday, I'm severely lacking the time that a lylo deserves but I'll force Shift into actually spending more time on this game. I have a good idea who the last mafia is at this point but I'll find out for sure soon.

Join Election

[Crazy]

Duplicity

will be part of the final election.

If Duplicity is Mafia, then the Afternoon phase will end as soon as he sends me a PM selecting his opponent.
If Duplicity is Town, then the Afternoon phase will end as soon as he sends me any PM.

This is obviously done to avoid any deducing of anybody's alignment based on the length of the Afternoon phase.

[Crazy]

Packbat

will oppose

Duplicity

.

Vote Count:

Duplicity

(0)

Packbat

(0)

Not voting

(1) - Quilford

The first candidate to receive Quilford's vote will be elected.

[Packbat]

Well, that answers that question. Quilford, any questions you have, ask away - I'll answer them as completely and honestly as I can.

[Packbat]

D1: Maruchan (volunteered @4) vs. Timeater (selected)

Post# Voter        | 
Maruchan
 
Timeater
 |
-------------------|-------------------|
   8  
Quilford
     |     .       V     |
   9  Packbat      |     .       V     |
  17  
Pomegranate
  |     .       V*    | * L-2
  30  
Lurconis
     |     .       V†    | † L-1
  41  
hiplop
       |     V       4     |
  77  Packbat      |     1       u     |
 127  
Shadow Dancer
|     1       V†    |
 131  
Johhog
       |     V       4     |
 133  
Johhog
       |     u       4     |
 142  
Twistedspoon
 |     V       4     |
 144  
Twistedspoon
 |     u      ~V~    | ===[]
-------------------|-------------------|
                   |     1       5     | Timeater = scum

D2: Johhog (volunteered @392) vs. Pomegranate (selected)

Post# Voter        | 
Johhog
 
Pomegranate
 |
-------------------|--------------------|
 420  
Shadow Dancer
|    V        .      |
 425  
Twistedspoon
 |    V*       .      | * L-2
 447  Duplicity    |    V†       .      | † L-1
 458  Packbat      |    3        V      |
 464  
Quilford
     |    3        V*     | * L-2
 474  
Lurconis
     |   ~V~       2      | ===[]
-------------------|--------------------|
                   |    4        2      | Johhog = Townie

D3: Twistedspoon (volunteered @525) vs. hiplop (selected)

Post# Voter        | 
Twistedspoon
 
hiplop
 |
-------------------|---------------------|
 535  
Lurconis
     |      V         .    |
 570  Packbat      |      1         V    |
 608  Duplicity    |      1         V†   | † L-1
 611  
Shadow Dancer
|      V†        2    |
 612  Duplicity    |      2         u    |
 621  
Quilford
     |     ~V~        1    | ===[]
-------------------|---------------------|
                   |      3         1    | Twistedspoon = Townie

D4: Lurconis (volunteered @634) vs. Shadow Dancer (selected)

Post # Voter       | 
Lurconis
 
Shadow Dancer
 |
-------------------|------------------------|
 647  
Quilford
     |    V           .       |
 655  Duplicity    |    x           .       | x = fake vote
 662  
Quilford
     |    u           .       |
 669  Packbat      |    V           .       |
 695  
Quilford
     |   ~V~          .       | ===[]
-------------------|------------------------|
                   |    2           0       | Lurconis = Scum

[Quilford]

Thank god.