[OLD] Open Setup Ideas and Discussion

[Oversoul]

I thought Mafia Lawyer was an actual role that acts like a modified tailor in that the role can make a player investigate as either alignment?

[Meransiel]

It is, but I'm special.

[benoni]

Has anyone ever tried Quantum Werewolf?

http://puzzle.cisra.com.au/2008/quantumwerewolf.html

Essentially, it's a game of mafia (or 'werewolf'), except that the initial state is an even superposition of all possible states. As people are lynched, become nightkilled, and flips take place, certain players become more or less probable of being mafia. I'm curious because this is actually what led me to become interested in Mafia in the first place.

With the assistance of a computer program, it would be easy to mod, but someone would have to write the program. Maybe if I stick around long enough to meet requirements, I can try modding this myself.

[Empking]

http://mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=23&t=14793 ?

[benoni]

Seems like the game was kind of broken by having no scumhunting the first few days.

Maybe the game would play better if it started with some 100% Scum/Town players. Of course it would be secret who's who.

[Empking]

Pressure Mafia

Nightless

3 Mafia (White Flag)

2 Innocent Childs
2 Vanilla Townies

[Empking]

Pressure Mafia

Nightless

3 Mafia (White Flag)

2 Innocent Childs
2 Vanilla Townies

EV is 0.5 btw.

[Amrun]

Do scum get a kill?

[Amrun]

My initial impression is that it's town-sided.

[tclawren]

what kind of innocent children are they?

(confirmed on d1 or after a pm?)

[IceGuy]

what kind of innocent children are they?

(confirmed on d1 or after a pm?)

Doesn't matter, since mafia can't kill.

[tclawren]

wagon analysis.

[Empking]

Do scum get a kill?

No.

I was thinking it being confirmed via PM. Might be simpler to do it the D1 way though.

[callforjudgement]

Pressure Mafia

Nightless

3 Mafia (White Flag)

2 Innocent Childs
2 Vanilla Townies

Seems very townsided. The town needs 2 correct lynches (out of 5 targets, 3 of which are scum) to win; the scum need to force 2 mislynches to win, and only have 2 VTs to land them on. If the lynches are done purely randomly, it's equivalent to considering 3 out of the 5 unconfirmed players to be picked at random and lynched, and out of the 10 ways to do that, 3 lead to scum win (VT, VT, Goon * 3), 7 lead to town win (Goon, Goon, Goon *1; Goon, Goon, VT * 6), so it's 70% town win even without scumhunting. Arguably having a scumteam that strong would mean that the winrate would be less than 70% in practice, but I'm not sure, especially with two confirmed townies.

EDIT: the EV isn't 50% like you say, because nobody ever random-lynches an Innocent Child, so that should be factored out of the calculations.
RE-EDIT: Oh right, I missed that 3 scum vs. 3 townies doesn't lead to random-lynches either, but rather to a scum win, so the above calcs are wrong because of the day 1 lylo. I don't really like the concept of a day 1 lylo...

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Looks a tad town-sided, but within tolerance. I wouldn't run it without some form of confirmation voting system though - otherwise every town vote risks a quicklynch.

[callforjudgement]

Looks a tad town-sided, but within tolerance. I wouldn't run it without some form of confirmation voting system though - otherwise every town vote risks a quicklynch.

You could use delayed hammer, which is perfect at stopping quicklynches (basically, anyone on the wagon can unhammer via unvoting within 24 hours, and the day continues). It changes the dynamics of the game somewhat, but I suspect a day-1 lylo would translate to it anyway (people would FoS or fake-vote, and then when they were all agreed on the day's vote, only then actually vote).

[tclawren]

Pressure Mafia

Nightless

3 Mafia (White Flag)

2 Innocent Childs
2 Vanilla Townies

After looking at this for quite a bit, I'm actually going to take a gander and say that it's a little scum sided. I know that seems a little counter-intuitive considering that 2 of the seven players are mod-confirmed town. The problem lies within the fact that mafia have a staggering 40% chance of winning this on d1. This is why I like the Innocent Children to be the pm confirmed kind, to give the town some way to battle against those really high d1 odds.

There is also the problem of even having a setup that can end in one day.

[Empking]

Less Pressure

Nightless

3 Mafia - White flag - First one dead gets to kill a player.

2 Innocents Childs
3 VTs

[tclawren]

Less Pressure

Nightless

3 Mafia - White flag - First one dead gets to kill a player.

2 Innocents Childs
3 VTs

What about:

Nightless

3 Mafia - White flag - First one dead gets to kill a player.

1 Innocents Childs
4 VTs

makes it a little less town sided(changes it from 70% to ~54% town win EV(if I did my math right)).

I understand if you say no because it veers to much away from your original idea.

[Empking]

Mine:
1/2 (Scum lynch) * 2/5 (scum lynch)
1/2 * 3/5 * 1/2

1/2 (Town lynch) *3/5 (scum lynch) * 1/2 (scum lynch)

For a 0.5 EV, where are we diverging?

[animorpherv1]

I get the feeling Empking is including Innocent Children in his lynches.

[Empking]

I've just shown my calculations. ICs are not lynchable in my way. I am using the D1 ICs in my calculations though.

[tclawren]

Mine:
1/2 (Scum lynch) * 2/5 (scum lynch)
1/2 * 3/5 * 1/2

1/2 (Town lynch) *3/5 (scum lynch) * 1/2 (scum lynch)

For a 0.5 EV, where are we diverging?

After one scum is lynched they have to lynch all VTs to win.
Which means you need to add:
1/2 (scum) * 3/5 (town) * 1/2 (town) * 2/3 (scum)
and
1/2 (town) * 3/5 (scum) * 1/2 (town) * 2/3 (scum).

which will give you another .2 EV

-edited to correct my error-

[Empking]

Mine:
1/2 (Scum lynch) * 2/5 (scum lynch)
1/2 * 3/5 * 1/2

1/2 (Town lynch) *3/5 (scum lynch) * 1/2 (scum lynch)

For a 0.5 EV, where are we diverging?

After one scum is lynched they have to lynch all VTs to win.
Which means you need to add:
1/2 (scum) * 3/5 (town) * 1/2 (town) * 2/3 (scum)
and
1/2 (town) * 3/5 (scum) * 1/2 (town) * 2/3 (scum).

which will give you another .2 EV

-edited to correct my error-

With only one IC (The other one was vengekill'd) then scum has one by the 2/3 round.

[tclawren]

My bad. for some reason I totally skipped that line.