New York 138: OxyMoron Mafia :: Game Over!

[Oversoul]

I got a positive result from my Gunsmith investigation on Lewarcher. So he is mafia.

Otolia is also likely mafia if not for the hypocritical "Why are you voting Johhog, Hoppster?" and then the "Johhog needs to die". Would be happy with either of their lynches today.

Secret Project does look scummy, but I don't think he had scummy intentions with his posts yesterday.

Townier than town:
Mastin
Hoppster

Probably town:
Bvoigt

Scum:
Lewarcher
Otolia

Do not want:
LLD (Bman's actions are super bad)

pedit:

Redff, read thread plox?

[Hoppster]

ummm so

the thing about Otolia is

that Otolia can be pretty dreadful at this game sometimes.


In a Newbie game we played together, I was caught by Otolia as scum... because, essentially, I replaced in upon request from the Mod, and my predecessor site-flaked from 3+ games.

Which is

obvobvobv

indicative of scum.

I got a positive result from my Gunsmith investigation on Lewarcher. So he is mafia.

why Lew?

Happy with a lew lynch though.

[Oversoul]

I don't know. I realized I had forgotten to send in an action and from just glancing at the thread I didn't feel any real "meh" people to try and confirm (I feel confident in Otolia scum so I didn't want to waste the shot on him). I wanted to get one of the inactives so people would not try to push or not to push for the lurker status.

But I just realized that Lewarcher may not be mafia. >___< I thought gunsmith was flavor for cop and din't realize it was an actual role that claims positives from all roles that have "guns". >_> Now I am less sure of Lewscum now that there is a chance he may be a powerrole. (thank you to Druid for pointing that out in pm :p)

[Oversoul]

ebwop: oh and I don't want anymore outted prs in case something stupid (like me) happens.

[Empking]

He's probably mafia.

[evilpacman18]

I'm alone now, in case anyone missed that.

[redFF]

gunsmith positive on a player who hasn't posted yet i don't like. i am down with the otolia vote tho.
VOTE: otolia

[bvoigt]

Lew's replacement will need to claim immediately.

[Empking]

Lew's replacement will need to claim immediately.

Why? They'll know what to claim so either you think its lynchable or you don't.

[bvoigt]

Lew's replacement will need to claim immediately.

Why? They'll know what to claim so either you think its lynchable or you don't.

I guess, but some claims might still be more believable than others. And it wouldn't hurt anything, since if he's town the scum already know he's some kind of killing power role.

[projectmatt]

Question: Who did Lew replace in as?

[Ironhead]

Lew is an original player, I think.

I agree with Empking in that Lewarcher is most likely scum (as Empking noted in #1229), as there are likely more mafia than remaining town-affiliated gunmen. I disagree with bvoigt in that we must wait for his replacement to claim -- I cannot imagine what role the replacement could possibly claim that would save him from being lynched, as the value of confirming Oversoul as town* is pretty powerful.

If Lew is indeed scum, I think we will find at least one of his partner(s) among those who didn't join Oversoul's bandwagon -- bvoigt, fatlikepig, mastin2, and me. I know I'm not scum and I'm pretty confident of my town-read on bvoigt. Both fatlikepig and mastin2 have manifested some scumminess.

UNVOTE: OTOLIA
VOTE: LEWARCHER

*I assume gunsmith role is always town, as I've never seen it scum-affiliated -- does anyone know if it is ever a scum role?

[fatlikepig]

If Lew is indeed scum, I think we will find at least one of his partner(s) among those who didn't join Oversoul's bandwagon -- bvoigt, fatlikepig, mastin2, and me. I know I'm not scum and I'm pretty confident of my town-read on bvoigt. Both fatlikepig and mastin2 have manifested some scumminess.

Why? Oversoul basically went, "HEY, LET'S VOTE FOR LEW OK?" I think there's valid reasons to not hop on a BW like that.

[Ironhead]

If Lew is indeed scum, I think we will find at least one of his partner(s) among those who didn't join Oversoul's bandwagon -- bvoigt, fatlikepig, mastin2, and me. I know I'm not scum and I'm pretty confident of my town-read on bvoigt. Both fatlikepig and mastin2 have manifested some scumminess.

Why? Oversoul basically went, "HEY, LET'S VOTE FOR LEW OK?" I think there's valid reasons to not hop on a BW like that.

I know -- which is why scum wouldn't feel obligated to bus their partner. Let's assume lewarcher flips scum; up until Oversoul claimed gunsmith, scum could dismiss him as an unreliable accuser simply because he had such a weak performance yesterday, and that his accusation today was pretty mastin2-esque. Why gin up momentum on a lewarcher wagon based on Oversoul's post?

Because the reasoning was there, townies had a reason to avoid that wagon as well -- I, too, was disinclined to vote lewarcher. So suppose that of all active players, townies were roughly equally likely to vote lewarcher as they were likely to vote someone else; but scum would almost certainly vote someone else, since the accusation was baseless (at the time) and they don't want unneeded momentum on a partner's bandwagon. From that, I infer that those who voted lewarcher before Oversoul's claim gain tremendous town-cred, but those who voted someone else become more likely to be scum.

Regardless, it is all academic until lewarcher flips. If he flips scum, I will be pushing hard on either you or mastin2. You are welcome to do the same on me, but I think my erstwhile performance speaks for itself.

[redFF]

i feel like ironhead including himself in the "likely to be scum" part is a weird way of him trying to earn town cred by being honest and almost offering himself to be lynched kind of not really. scummy.
UNVOTE:
VOTE: ironhead

[fatlikepig]

@Ironhead: Do you still think Otolia is scummy? Does him stating that he was willing to vote for Lew earn him town-cred from your POV?

I disagree with the wagon having scum on it. I think town are just as likely to join a wagon with a decent case/reasoning behind it as they were the one led on Lew (before Oversoul's claim, mind you). I take your point about it being easier for scum to join Otolia's BW, but a) I don't see anything that necessitates that being the case and b) it's just as hard as town (at least personally) to join a wagon that has little reason behind it.

I'm also not entirely inclined to believe that scum wouldn't bus their partners in this situation. As you said, it probably earns them town cred, and also, since Lew hasn't bothered posting, he's really just dead weight. Why not bus him and earn some town points while you're at it, instead of trying to defend him/avoid associating with him? Given that they managed to get us to kill a Vig yesterday, I'm not entirely sure that scum wouldn't have the confidence going into today to do something like that.

Oh, and since he's claimed Gunsmith, I guess it's fair enough to do this (though I'm somewhat wary of the fact that this could out another PR):

Unvote Vote: Lewarcher

[David Xanatos]

If he's a false positive, the Scum already know he's a PR..

VOTE: Lewarcher

[fatlikepig]

Oh, right. Oops, that's stupid.

I think I meant lynch. o.o

[David Xanatos]

There's a world of difference between outing and lynching.. methinks I shall take that as a scumslip..

[fatlikepig]

How is that a scumslip?

[David Xanatos]

Because Town don't think about "outing" people when there's been a guilty. It's a lynch, and unless the flip happens to be either Miller/Townie with Gun/Vig/something else that's a legitimate false positive, the next day's lynch is obvious too. Scum want to "out" the Town PRs for elimination at night if they can't be lynched during the day.

[Ironhead]

@Ironhead: Do you still think Otolia is scummy? Does him stating that he was willing to vote for Lew earn him town-cred from your POV?

I still think Otolia is scummy based on his gameplay from before Oversoul's claim. I don't think Otolia gets any town credit for

talking

about voting lewarcher. He had an opportunity to put his money where his mouth is and he didn't.

Today's lynch must be lewarcher; Otolia is a possible candidate for tomorrow

[fatlikepig]

Just FTR, I realise that outing and lynching are different terms. It was an easy mistake for me to make, considering I was thinking about Oversoul outing himself, the fact that another PR may have been outed, etc.

The Gunsmith isn't a guilty though. Lew could be scum, but he could also be cop/vig/another gunsmith/some other PR with a gun, and given that he hasn't posted, there's no way to tell either way. Considering we've already lynched Johhog, I'm quite wary of lynching another important PR today. Though I can see that the lynching to confirm Oversoul / possibly hit scum could be good for us.

I get the fact that scum want to out PRs, but I don't see how that applies in that case, even if we are to take it as being what I meant to say. Unless you're talking about scum getting overexcited and just dropping it into their post by accident, which just seems silly.

[David Xanatos]

Gunsmith's typically have one, maybe two false triggers. The fact a Vig's gone make it a very low chance of a false positive.

And you said "out another PR", which if it's the case, is already true. It's non-standard to not get a claim, and evaluate that claim based on the person's prior play. For you to talk about them being outed seems to me a slip. Scum thinking about the fact two NK targets have appeared..

[Oversoul]

Just FTR, I realise that outing and lynching are different terms. It was an easy mistake for me to make, considering I was thinking about Oversoul outing himself, the fact that another PR may have been outed, etc.

The Gunsmith isn't a guilty though. Lew could be scum, but he could also be cop/vig/another gunsmith/some other PR with a gun, and given that he hasn't posted, there's no way to tell either way. Considering we've already lynched Johhog, I'm quite wary of lynching another important PR today. Though I can see that the lynching to confirm Oversoul / possibly hit scum could be good for us.

I get the fact that scum want to out PRs, but I don't see how that applies in that case, even if we are to take it as being what I meant to say. Unless you're talking about scum getting overexcited and just dropping it into their post by accident, which just seems silly.

This... I don't want to lynch who could be the odd night vig, or a cop, which are very powerful town roles especially because he isn't there to claim.

I would much rather we lynch Otolia is legitimately scummy, and I would like to give Lew'd replacement a chance.

UNVOTE:
VOTE: Otolia

Mod, can we have priority on a Lewarcher replacement?