New York 138: OxyMoron Mafia :: Game Over!

[Oversoul]

I don't really follow what anyone says, Fat. sorry. Your eagerness is noted though.

[Oversoul]

Scumhunting tips for you guys going into night:

Foolish Fool is most likely a Mafia Roleblocker, which is why they killed Hoppster. She isn't a rolecop because I had already claimed and it would be stupid for scum to waste their time on that.. Roleblocker means that Hoppster's "confirms" aren't totally confirmed. redFF is thus not totally confirmed because I faked a town result on him.

Scum would have to have known this coming into today so are probably rolefishing me (like TOG, but TOG is town so whatever) and would act differently towards my redFF read. I probably should have faked a guilty. That would have been a pretty good indicator.

In short:

Look for buddying with Otolia and Foolish Fool (and most likely Iron when he flips)
Look for cognitive dissonance that I was lieing about my innocent on redFF

[mastin2]

Dang it, Oversoul, you weren't actually supposed to SAY Foolish Fool was a roleblocker today; I was smart enough to figure that out already. (It's in my Quicktopic, because I didn't want to say it publicly.)

And I can't think of anyone other than TOG who fished you--but I'll double-check. I also disagree with the buddying with Otolia and Foolish Fool. Foolish was the one doing most of the buddying, and the only person I can think of who did it mutually was me. Additionally, Otolia was so obv-scum, a scumbuddy trying to protect him would be down-right suicidal.

Ironhead, though, I do agree with.

[mastin2]

Got anything for us Oversoul?

If Oversoul didn't get a positive result -- or even if he did -- let's not lynch anyone until everyone has actively re-joined the game. Yesterday, we let three players get by without posting at all: Foolish Fool, Vifam, and Lady Lambadelta. This, in combination with the unreliability of the GM's deadlines, is crushing this game. This is one of the slowest and most boring games I've seen on this site.

@GM: Have Foolish Fool and Vifam responded to their prods? Do we have a replacement for LLD yet?

And possibly

honestly mastin2 has done absolutely nothing this game, promised huge amounts of analysis and not delivered. People seem to be totally ignoring his lurking/non contribution and I don't understand.

so
VOTE: mastin2

We're waiting for Oversoul to tell us who the scum are.

Are pre-reveal fishes. They all have a different tone, so it's kinda hard to read them.

Fat Just kinda accepts it.

I also disagree stridently with many of Oversoul's reads. I think Xeras, mastin2, TOGTFO, and David Xanatos are high probability to be scum (vis-a-vis the rest of the town). I'm also unconvinced that evilpacman18 is town simply by virtue of being in the neighborhood. Meanwhile, I'm not so sold on Foolish Fool, projectmatt, or fatlikepig being scum.

My reads:

TOWN
Oversoul (isn't yet 100% confirmed, but close -- I doubt a scum would bus two of his partners)
redFF (don't much like his play, but Oversoul vouches for him and I don't think he is a SK)

Relevent pieces quoted. Foolish and Matt are both on his "not likely to be scum" list. Additionally, look at the wording on redFF. "but Oversoul vouches for him" doesn't sound like "but Oversoul has him as confirmed town". It sounds like "but Oversoul is calling him confirmed town even though he has no way of knowing." Yeah, Ironhead's a scum lynch.

[mastin2]

Doesn't address the result.

Speaking of the result.

oversoul why did you check me.

This is not scum who knows the result cannot be true. This is not scum who is trying to take advantage of being confirmed town. This is town who wants to know exactly why Oversoul would waste an investigation on them.

Ohh, is it because of this?

redFF (don't much like his play, but Oversoul vouches for him and I don't think he is a SK)

This is what I mean by skepticism. I am reading redFF as town because he is cleared by Oversoul's result (which can only be wrong if Oversoul is lying or redFF is SK). I addressed the issue of Oversoul lying in the line above this one, where I indicated that I doubt Oversoul is scum; and the last part of this line addressed the issue of redFF being SK. By addressing both, I eliminate the remaining doubt, satisfying skepticism.

And to clarify, I actually don't have any reason to think redFF is acting

too townie

to be SK; it's just that there clearly isn't an SK (unless maybe it is one of the inactives). If we

were

seeing multiple kills each night, I would be far more suspicious of redFF being SK.

The SK talk feels like it's there to hide the fact that Ironhead is showing more skepticism towards the claimed result than he really ought to have.

[mastin2]

Come to think of it,

I think Oversoul is town. Not just because he lynched the mafia but just because of his explanations as to why he investigated so and so.

I think that Ironhead's latest posts sound very forced in tone, specifically this quote. I'm not dedicated to a vote on him quite yet, though.

Before I clicked "submit" on that last post, it occurred to me that it may be interpreted it as a scummy approach to faux scumhunting. I submitted it anyway, because at this point any activity is pro-town and any inactivity is inherently anti-town.

Mastin bothers me, if he doesn't give the analysis he promises I want him lynched, but I honestly like to hold people on their promises, so I'm waiting for some kind of content.

Empking and Oversoul are town. Not because they lynched mafia but because Oversoul's explanation of why he did made me lean so.

David also towntold earlier as well.

Xeras is probably scum just because of gut. I need to read more of this thread because I'm disconnected.

This BLEEDS of inside information.

[Oversoul]

I don't get why everyone hates your play. We've owned scum twice now.

[mastin2]

And...

I think that Ironhead's latest posts sound very forced in tone, specifically this quote. I'm not dedicated to a vote on him quite yet, though.

Before I clicked "submit" on that last post, it occurred to me that it may be interpreted it as a scummy approach to faux scumhunting. I submitted it anyway, because at this point any activity is pro-town and any inactivity is inherently anti-town.

Goes to...

Vote: fatlikepig

Town vibes from Iron's latest post. This is good.

With Iron's only post?

Basically admitting he is scum, trying to appear productive when he was aware he was not.

[mastin2]

I don't get why everyone hates your play. We've owned scum twice now.

You have your ups (this game), you have your downs. (...Other...games. ) One minute, I can cream the entire scumteam, the next, I am instrumental in their eventual victory. Really fluctuates between games, but like I said, I think I tend to be better as a replacement. The later I replace, the better. (Come to think of it, I won Sexy Sedilla by basically clearing myself of my biases and reading the game from the start, with a little VCA thrown in. By basically being a replacement.)

[mastin2]

1. Empking <--Prob-town.
2. Xeras <--Lots of little things suggest he is town.
3. Foolish Fool (Haylen + JordanA24) <--Confirmed Mafia Roleblocker, auto-lynch tomorrow.
5. Nobody Special Vifam <--Prob-town.
6. Thor665 Lady Lambadelta BomberMan <--Practically confirmed town.
7. projectmatt Fool_Hardy <--Pretty much guaranteed scum.
8. David Xanatos <--I'm going to eliminate David from my future scum lists.
10. Ironhead MintKitten <--Lynched. Practically confirmed scum.
12. fatlikepig LTP Mafia <--Pretty much guaranteed town if Ironhead flips scum.
14. redFF <--He's not as town as he was (kinda hard to be more town than "confirmed town" ), but he's still effectively confirmed town as far as I'm concerned.

Yeah, this game's way too easy.

[mastin2]

Well, I better post before I get prodded.

Why do you guys think that OS hasn't been killed yet, despite being an investigative role?

Why do you guys think that OS hasn't been killed yet, despite being an investigative role?

Because either (a) he's been protected, repeatedly, by a doc or similar role (and we have a third party to account for the killing each night); or (b) he's scum who bused two of his partners; or (c) scum are playing WIFOM games with us to try to discredit him.

I think (a) and (b) are extremely low probability, and think it is likely (c).

Why do you think he's still alive?

This is noteworthy. Still think Xeras is town (see also: how hard Ironhead pushed his lynch), still think Ironhead is scum. (See also: ...Pretty much anything he's said since he locked onto Johhog. )

[mastin2]

I shouldn't forget this as well.

BTW, fatlikepig is confirmed town. Look at the exchange between fat and Otolia on page 49--does that read as bussing to you?

Nope, didn't think so.

redFF is also prob-town for that same page, where he was discussed and Otolia said this:

But only town would be open about it.

I don't agree. If you wish you could explain your reasoning to me.

Additionally, his post below that makes Empking and Secret Project town as well.

Ironhead, on the other hand......

[Thor665]

You have your ups (this game), you have your downs. (...Other...games. )

I think you do better on late replaces because it's harder for you to fakeclaim based off gut reads

[ObliviousDruidMuncher]

Day 4 Vote Totals

If there is a mistake, point it out.

Last post seen:

Thor665

, page 63.

[8]Ironhead: redFF, evilpacman18, mastin2, Oversoul, David Xanatos, Empking, Thor665, Nobody Special [LYNCHED]

[2]fatlikepig:

projectmatt, Xeras [L-3]

[2]Xeras :

Ironhead, fatlikepig [L-6]

Ironhead, a

Mafia Goon

, has been lynched by the town. It is now Night 4. The deadline for Night 4 is October 15th, 2011 at 6:00 PM ET.

[ObliviousDruidMuncher]

Pine replaces Foolish Fool.

[ObliviousDruidMuncher]

Pine, a

Mafia Roleblocker

, was chiasmused to death during Night 4. It is now Day 5. The deadline for Day 5 is October 29th, 2011 at 8 PM ET.

As per usual, if I missed anything, please let me know.

[Oversoul]

What the hell is this... do we have an SK or something?

VOTE: ProjectMatt

[projectmatt]

Huh, that's four scum down. How many do we even have left now?

[projectmatt]

Oversoul, you need to out your investigation.

[Oversoul]

Whoever killed Pine is like confirmed town

[mastin2]

Whoever killed Pine is like confirmed town

Hence, why they shouldn't claim, though I have a decent idea for who they are.

Anyway. VOTE: Project Matt. Pretty sure this'll end the game in a town win.

[projectmatt]

Whoever killed Pine is like confirmed town

Hence, why they shouldn't claim, though I have a decent idea for who they are.

Anyway. VOTE: Project Matt. Pretty sure this'll end the game in a town win.

Hm.

I foresee that I will be lynched today, and I will admit that it's fair. My play yesterday was close to something good and then it fell down a cliff. I had Ironhead pinned down and then I second guessed myself and tried to push on someone who is likely to be town. I do that quite a lot. However, I'm still going to make an effort to look for the scum, especially today given that I probably don't have a lot of time left. I believe that Mastin, David, Empking, Pig and Oversoul are town. Those are my strongest reads. Now, that leaves:

Xeras
Nobody Special (replaced Vifam, and Vifam was a previous town lean.)
Thor665 (Probable.)
TOGTFO (town lean as well, though this read is a little shaky.)
evilpacman18 (Not sure.)
redFF (Leaning town as well.)

So if all of my town leans are correct, that would leave:

Xeras
Thor
Evil

if they aren't correct, it leaves six different names. How many scum would there be in a game with this many amount of players? 5? 6? I can't imagine any more then six, and we already have four down. I feel that even with my lynch, the town still has this victory, though while writing this post I realize that I probably shouldn't give up just because I screwed up yesterday.

Oversoul, please repeat all of your investigations again, specifically today's.

[Oversoul]

Whoever killed Pine is like confirmed town

Hence, why they shouldn't claim, though I have a decent idea for who they are.

Anyway. VOTE: Project Matt. Pretty sure this'll end the game in a town win.

Hm.

I foresee that I will be lynched today, and I will admit that it's fair. My play yesterday was close to something good and then it fell down a cliff. I had Ironhead pinned down and then I second guessed myself and tried to push on someone who is likely to be town. I do that quite a lot. However, I'm still going to make an effort to look for the scum, especially today given that I probably don't have a lot of time left. I believe that Mastin, David, Empking, Pig and Oversoul are town. Those are my strongest reads. Now, that leaves:

Xeras
Nobody Special (replaced Vifam, and Vifam was a previous town lean.)
Thor665 (Probable.)
TOGTFO (town lean as well, though this read is a little shaky.)
evilpacman18 (Not sure.)
redFF (Leaning town as well.)

So if all of my town leans are correct, that would leave:

Xeras
Thor
Evil

if they aren't correct, it leaves six different names. How many scum would there be in a game with this many amount of players? 5? 6? I can't imagine any more then six, and we already have four down. I feel that even with my lynch, the town still has this victory, though while writing this post I realize that I probably shouldn't give up just because I screwed up yesterday.

Oversoul, please repeat all of your investigations again, specifically today's.

The justification you give for some of those reads is baffling. What is even more baffling is the fact that you list Evil as scum. I'll claim and stuff tomorrow. Sleep.

[fatlikepig]

VOTE: Projectmatt

Posts from yesterday and Irons flip make you obvscum.

[fatlikepig]

Also baffling is the fact that I was apparently scum yesterday, yet I'm conftown to you today.