Mini 1313: Blood Bowl Mafia (Game over)

[PeregrineV]

You know what, GreyICE? I'm willing to compromise.

You down with lynching PV?

lol...And why would that be? You got something against trolls?

Vote count

(7 players alive = 4 to lynch)

(1) BBmolla - Yates

Not voting

: BBmolla, Dazzy, Glork, GreyICE, inte, PeregrineV

Deadline

: Tuesday 24 April 16:00 CET

[BBmolla]

2) Their role-Troll

I'm an odd-night vig, I eat people.

...

No

Can we lynch PV now?

[GreyICE]

You know what, GreyICE? I'm willing to compromise.

You down with lynching PV?

You say magic words

[GreyICE]

Glork.

I want to shoot Inte if you're not going to.

If Dazzy is using the busdrive as a protect, then you call your shot and she drives one of you/herself with someone else. Otherwise we do the redirect-vig thing.

[PeregrineV]

@Grey- I must have missed it. How are you going to shoot anyone?

[GreyICE]

I'm a vigilante. I'm counterclaiming you.

[inte]

so... you shoot the most pro-town player instead of someone who has a counter claim

right...

[GreyICE]

Who has a counterclaim?

[Glork]

Okay.

PV is obviously lying scum. What I'm struggling with is whether he is the SK or whether he is groupscum.

If he is the SK, and BB/Grey are the groupscum, we *probably* lose. Becuase BB can make the factional kill, and Grey can use his SPP to kill someone else. By my count, we'd have 4 alive tomorrow with 2 scums, unless I were to shoot one of them. Basically, Dazzy would have to switch {one of the townies} with {one of the scums}.
If he is the SK and inte/Yates are the groupscum, we win, unless Dazzy switches {one of the Townies} with {one of the scums}.

If PV is groupscum, things get really, really, *really* hairy. I would peg BB as the other groupscum, and Grey as gambiting SK (expecting the scums to shoot him tonight, which is why he went with the off the wall claim).



Over the next couple of days, I'm going to run through possible worst-case scenarios with EVERY single possible lynch (our pool, I think, is PV, BB, one of Inte/Yates). But I'm going to need some time and cooperation to get this figured out.



What I need right now is for EVERY SINGLE PLAYER to post the following statement:
"If I am protown, I agree to follow whatever plan Glork sets for us."

That premise is VITAL to ensure that whatever I come up with gives us the BEST odds of winning, even if you personally disagree with the plan. My most recent game, there was ONE scum remaining out of THIRTEEN players, but the town lost because people started using their roles on their own, rather than following along with the plan that SHOULD have caused a town autowin. I will NEVER allow this to happen again, if I can absolutely help it.

[GreyICE]

100% agree. I lost a game of quack multiball that was unloseable because one of the doctors decided to protect scum over confirmed town.

[Glork]

Hypothetically, what would be your reaction if I dropped right now that my race is also actually troll?

I'd be doing exactly what I'm doing now, except I'd have a predisposition towards lynching you for lying to the town.

[Glork]

Grey, any word from the mod on whether your flavor is sent/shared?

[Glork]

QUESTIONS WHICH REQUIRE ANSWERS:

1) Grey, any word on block flavor from the mod?
2) BB, why did you vote for me instead of Grey last night?
3) inte, why did you vote for Tierce instead of Grey last night?
4) Yates, why did you choose not to vote last night?
5) Dazzy, what is the flavor behind how your Bus Drive ability?
6) PV, why did you target Tierce last night?
7) Dazzy, you say you targeted Glork/Majiffy because you felt I was protown and didn't want me killed. So why did you put your SPP vote on Tierce instead? Or why didn't you Bus-Drive her?


N1 nominations are a mess. I'm about 90% confident that Tierce voted for me N1.
Assuming that PV is scum (becuase honestly, why would there be a 1-shot vig, a mechanic that gives us vig kills, and an odd-night Vig?), Tierce was actually LEADING Glork of the known votes. Even if I assume "Tierce voted for Glork," we'd be even. At least one of {Majiffy, pappums, Pizza} voted Glork N1, unless one of our Tierce-voters (Yates or Dazzy) is lying.
Unfortunately, I don't think we can glean any information from N1 SPP votes. Simply put, there are too many unknowns.

N2 nominations... assuming Tierce followed plan and voted for Grey, there's no obvious "player X lied about their N1 vote." Nothing really to glean about N2 nominations either. Taking PV's "MVP vote" out of the equation makes Grey's win even more likely.

[Glork]

No Lynch might actually be the correct play here.

Unless I did my scenarios wrong, I can eat Grey's vig, ensure that both Glork and Dazzy survive, and hopefully induce a crosskill to leave a 4-playe, 1-scum LyLo.

[GreyICE]

Grey, any word from the mod on whether your flavor is sent/shared?

Nope.

And Glork... I'm town. You know this.

[Glork]

Well, lynch PV would work, too. I'm fairly confident that PV is the SK. Eating flavor is the grain of truth in his claim --> disappears for a method of death. And the SK would have the most vested interest in killing off the Vigilante.

Dazzy would switch one of {Grey/BB} with one of {inte/Yates}. He will RANDOMLY determine which player from each pool he selects..
I would self-protect. No chance of Glork dying here.
Everyone protown would vote Glork. Guaranteed Town SPP.

Grey/BB can't doublekill inte/Yates, because they'd risk a 50/50 shot of shooting themselves.

MOST likely, Grey will wind up saving his SPP, and the scumgroup (whichever pair it is) will kill Dazzy.
Then we'll be in 5p LyLo WITH the added bonus of having PV's flip.



Look over that, everyone, and dissect. I think lynching PV is the play to make. I also require that Glork be on the lynch today, for obvious reasons.

[Glork]

Grey, any word from the mod on whether your flavor is sent/shared?

Nope.

And Glork... I'm town. You know this.

Not taking any chances here.

[BBmolla]

2) BB, why did you vote for me instead of Grey last night?

Because you were more obv town then him.

I'm good with whatever you want to do Glork. I don't think No Lynch is the correct play here though.

[Glork]

You're right; no lynch is not the correct play. The plan outlined in 890 is a better decision on every level. There is literally less than a 1% chance that PV is protown, and given where we are right now, lynching scum is definitely preferrable to not lynching scum.


Grey, my 890 assumes that you will NOT use your SPP tonight. I need a promise from you out of this.

[Glork]

In fact, once I get agreement out of Grey and Dazzy (the only power remaining), I'm okay with going forward.

I've triple-checked this plan against all possible scenarios, and it is the correct one.

[inte]

QUESTIONS WHICH REQUIRE ANSWERS:

1) Grey, any word on block flavor from the mod?
2) BB, why did you vote for me instead of Grey last night?
3) inte, why did you vote for Tierce instead of Grey last night?
4) Yates, why did you choose not to vote last night?
5) Dazzy, what is the flavor behind how your Bus Drive ability?
6) PV, why did you target Tierce last night?
7) Dazzy, you say you targeted Glork/Majiffy because you felt I was protown and didn't want me killed. So why did you put your SPP vote on Tierce instead? Or why didn't you Bus-Drive her?


N1 nominations are a mess. I'm about 90% confident that Tierce voted for me N1.
Assuming that PV is scum (becuase honestly, why would there be a 1-shot vig, a mechanic that gives us vig kills, and an odd-night Vig?), Tierce was actually LEADING Glork of the known votes. Even if I assume "Tierce voted for Glork," we'd be even. At least one of {Majiffy, pappums, Pizza} voted Glork N1, unless one of our Tierce-voters (Yates or Dazzy) is lying.
Unfortunately, I don't think we can glean any information from N1 SPP votes. Simply put, there are too many unknowns.

N2 nominations... assuming Tierce followed plan and voted for Grey, there's no obvious "player X lied about their N1 vote." Nothing really to glean about N2 nominations either. Taking PV's "MVP vote" out of the equation makes Grey's win even more likely.

"If I am protown, I agree to follow whatever plan Glork sets for us."

3) I've had terrible vibes coming from GreyIce and the fact of the matter Tierce was EASILY far more pro-town than he was.

What really shook me is when he said consistency = scum tell. That doesn't even make sense

[GreyICE]

Um, Glork.

I'm shooting Inte tonight.

So dazzy better not flop Inte with anyone, because he is dying. He is not town, Glork.

Your plan requires us to basically sacrifice two extra lynches for no gain. Fuck this plan.

[GreyICE]

Alternative plan:

I shoot Inte
You shoot BBmolla

Since this is turning into a 2v2, we'll have one flip from both sides.

Scum can only kill one person. We go into tomorrow with 3 flips, with either you or dazzy alive, worst case scenario.

[GreyICE]

Dazzy flops one of Glork/Dazzy with one of GreyICE/Yates here in my plan. Should make the kill very hard to aim.

[inte]

Um, Glork.

I'm shooting Inte tonight.

So dazzy better not flop Inte with anyone, because he is dying. He is not town, Glork.

Your plan requires us to basically sacrifice two extra lynches for no gain. Fuck this plan.

so you're not trying to get glork killed at all are you

jesus christ you're so transparent

dazzy swap me with {molla, grey, or pv}

or don't

feel free to make a decision