Open 387: Jungle Republic (Day 6 - ends in a Town Victory)

[Ravel]

Day 1 Vote Count

Slandaar (5): Kassadin, Chrimi, drmyshotgun, vijay2vasandani, asher1611
Om of the Nom (1): LBJ
asher1611 (2): kondi2424, Thomith
Chrimi (2): Slandaar, Elmo TeH AzN

Not Voting (2): BagSquad, Om of the Nom

There are 12 players alive, which means it takes 7 votes to lynch.
Deadline in

(expired on 2012-04-16 09:00:00)

(April 16, 9:00 AM EDT or 1:00 PM GMT)

As of Post #474

[Thomith]

thing is, even if slandaar is scum we could benefit here, the reward outweighs the risk.
If we lynch someone else we can get better reads than a nightkill
if slandaar is seer werewolves would have to kill him, otherwise the town would get an investigate.

If we do this and slandaar lives we could talk about lynching him, but day 1 seems a little dumb imo.

[Slandaar]

they were in my town reads when I claimed which was before the online bit so stop misrepping.

Now

We need to lynch scum

Chrimi/Dr/Kass

doesnt matter which really they all prob end up flipping scum.

[Chrimi]

Werewolves could purposely let him live so we lynch him tomorrow.

Think about it. If we lynch him today, werewolves get a nk (and we get reads off of it) and that's a dead scum and town, OR 2 dead towns.
If we lynch somebody else, we have a high chance of lynching town, then they can kill a town instead of seer and tomorrow we'll lynch Slandaar because he didn't get nk'ed- That's a chance of 3 dead towns.

I'd rather have 2 dead towns with a chance of dead scum than 3 dead towns.

And Slandaar suddenly knows exactly who's scum.

Once again, what are your REASONS?

[Chrimi]

Except that dr and kass are some of my best town reads to date~

[Thomith]

can i ask why kass is a town read? they are just coasting through and not explaining any of their reasoning.

[Chrimi]

Town meta. Read up on his previous game.

[Thomith]

meta is bad, also if we are going on meta i remember reading a kass scum game and they play the same, so their play probably doesn't vary.

[Chrimi]

Meta is good, you can always tell if somebody is scum or not (for me) based on meta.

I see what you mean, I saw his mafia lovers game and he acted exactly the same as town as he did scum.

Ugh, meta has failed me in this case.

Well, LaL, right? Lynch all lurkers...

Alright, I'll take that back on kass. But I do get town vibes off of him.

[Thomith]

Chrimi - who other than slandaar would you want to lynch?

[Slandaar]

Chrimi explain

When did you meta read Kass

When did you read a scum game of his?

[Slandaar]

dr is a really good lynch btw

like really good

he hasnt done anything except started RQS then gone completely quiet

[Elmo TeH AzN]

Alright Im up out of bed now and time to write something.

Chimi - I know what your town meta was at least in 1206 pre-wipe. 1 game doesn't form a meta though and Im not one who likes to use that for the sake of arguements.

asher, when you talk about kass in the spoiler tag you say "hello wolfie wolfie" infering her being a werewolf, when we have two scumgroups in the game, what made you assume werewolf?

Its obvious. Hes mafia.

I seriously LOL'd. I hope you're being facetious.

What's funny is I not. Why would you only refer to one scum group? And not both? Truthfully the objective here is to find

All

Scum just not one group. Granted the one group has a NK and the other is somewhat a mason group. It doesn't matter scum is scum.

nope om, you said you believed slandaar but still suspect him.

Given the information so far though what reason do we have but to not at least believe it to a point. Maybe only as far as you can throw him.

So you're saying let Slandaar live, so that the wolves must kill him tonight? If he's a seer he has just screwed himself. There is absolutely no way to protect him, and he has done a grand total of zero investigations. The wolves have zero incentive to let him live because he could rng into a wolf during the night, and out them the next day knowing he could die at any point. If he is a seer who is claiming truthfully, he has just crippled the town one way or another.I do believe you're holding a little too hard and fast to your "How to Play Mafia" rulebook. What's to stop scum from claiming a town power role on day 1 to avoid a lynch? It's a no risk proposition on Day 1 normally. It has two potential wins: to keep the scum alive and to flush out the only town power role. But it's one thing to claim Cop day 1 as scum, it's another thing entirely to claim seer in this setup. It is an incredibly anti-town play, and instead only speaks of self preservation.

Problem with this is what if the wolves choose not to kill him because he's just faking his role claim and then tomorrow comes out with a fake guilty? Then we're down another townie and setting up a PL on Slan on D3 which could be Lylo if Im not mistaken. Whats interesting if you think its only self preservation why didn't you put your vote on him if you think he's scummy or fake claiming? You must believe the claim in some way shape or form.

Also I feel people aren't realizing this is a multiball setup.

I don't buy this So because Im sleeping at 10 am Im not town?

Oh wait Asher voted him in 443

Tomith is becoming my strongest town read. Here

And I get your argument but I don't like the characterization of it being a "wasted lynch." It could be the "wrong" lynch, but if we nail scum it is hardly wasted. Think about it from the scum's perspective for a second:

1) Would the mafia squander their man advantage by having one of them claim seer on day one, making the player an obvious target for the wolves, who they are competing against? Most likely, no. The scum team would either lose that mafia member and/or draw out the seer, who cannot see mafia but can draw out werewolves. The mafia would risk losing their man advantage plus a way to out their opposing scum team. It would be in the mafia's best interest to not claim seer.

2)

Would one of the two werewolves try and claim seer to save their own skin? Absolutely. It could avoid a lynch, and wolves are not going to NK one of their own. It could draw out the seer, the only town power role and the only one who can detect them. Plus if they draw out the seer but had already claimed seer first, who is the town going to believe? There's the potential of surviving an extra day by the town mislynching the actual seer.

I agree that it is typical for town power roles to claim at L-1 what their role is. But this game is not like other setups where the mystery town doc/jailer/etc can swoop in and save the claimed power role for at least one night (thus creating the prisoner's dilemma of who to protect and who to kill target). No, once the seer outs himself or herself, the seer is still going to die either by a lynch or by a night kill without being able to give any additional info. One Day 1 at 1-L, that's without giving any info at all.

Even if we continue to disagree, you see my point, right?

I can't really buy into #2 just because I understand the point of the seer and what not but why would the wolves want to lose a man advantage this early in the game knowing fully well then they would have to play an almost perfect game to nail mafia and pull a win. As for #1 its implausible.

Benefits to lynching Slandaar: He could be scum or Werewolf fake-claiming scum to get town cred.

Then we run into the dilemma tomorrow where the real seer comes out and claims gets Slandarr lynched and is dead the next night.

Werewolves could purposely let him live so we lynch him tomorrow.

Think about it. If we lynch him today, werewolves get a nk (and we get reads off of it) and that's a dead scum and town, OR 2 dead towns.
If we lynch somebody else, we have a high chance of lynching town, then they can kill a town instead of seer and tomorrow we'll lynch Slandaar because he didn't get nk'ed- That's a chance of 3 dead towns.

I'd rather have 2 dead towns with a chance of dead scum than 3 dead towns.

And Slandaar suddenly knows exactly who's scum.

Once again, what are your REASONS?

I can agree here but remember if our numbers get down to quick because of bad Mislynches and others we're going to lose. Scum controls just under half the votes. Keep that in mind. Granted their on 2 opposite factions but its something to keep your eye on.

Meta is good, you can always tell if somebody is scum or not (for me) based on meta.

I see what you mean, I saw his mafia lovers game and he acted exactly the same as town as he did scum.

Ugh, meta has failed me in this case.

Well, LaL, right? Lynch all lurkers...

Alright, I'll take that back on kass. But I do get town vibes off of him.

LaL is Lynch all Liars.
You have 2 games in your sig. You can be purposely playing against your meta.

[Chrimi]

Chrimi explain

When did you meta read Kass

When did you read a scum game of his?

I looked up all of the games (still on the site) of all of the players. That's when.

[Chrimi]

dr is a really good lynch btw

like really good

he hasnt done anything except started RQS then gone completely quiet

Probably busy.

[Chrimi]

Chrimi - who other than slandaar would you want to lynch?

None until I can see what Slandaar flips.

[Chrimi]

LaL.

Look at the mafiascum wiki.

It means both.

[Thomith]

i dislike your tunnel vision, i have explained why a different lynch could be useful today, and if slandaar is really seer then we have 2 dead town with 0 chance of dead scum day 2, if they are not we at least have a chance of 1 dead scum but meh.

[Chrimi]

Slandaar has a high chance of being scum.

We lynch him, we have a high chance of killing a wolf.

Pretty simple to me.

Also, The wiki does say lynch all liars, my apologies, but I've seen it used before for lynch all lurkers.

[Slandaar]

I looked up all of the games (still on the site) of all of the players. That's when.

including me?

[Chrimi]

I looked up all of the games (still on the site) of

all of the players

. That's when.

[Slandaar]

So you think this is my scumgame?

[Thomith]

what is your meta read on me then metaman?

[Elmo TeH AzN]

LaL.

Look at the mafiascum wiki.

It means both.

Even then its a PL at best.

[Thomith]

why are we even discussing policy lynches?