Mini 1313: Blood Bowl Mafia (Game over)

[BBmolla]

@Grey: Tell me if I have this right - You are town. I am town. You believe BB is the SK, and Yates is groupScum.

@Yates: Tell me if I have this right - You are town. Since Grey and BB are trolls, they are both anti-town. Are they of the same alignment, or is one an SK?

@BB: Let's assume I'm town for a second. You would lynch Yates over Grey? Tell me why.

Yates play screams scum, and I have enormous doubts that it's You/Grey as the final two.

Grey is probably the other scum though.

Vote count

(4 players alive = 3 to lynch)

(2) No lynch - GreyICE, Yates

Not voting

: BBmolla, Dazzy

Deadline

: Monday 30 April 20:00 CET

[GreyICE]

@Dazzy: Glork obviously used his MVP, since he was going to get another one. He obviously shot, and I see no reason for him to NOT shoot BB just as he claimed.

Frankly I don't see why we're over-discussing this. We're not lynching today. Scum have all the facts, Yates and BB can do what they want now.

Last post of the day.

[Yates]

Can one of you two vote no lynch and get on with it?

[Dazzy]

I'm going to talk to the other townie for a second here. If we assume that the other two are both anti-town, of different factions, then if even one of us dies tonight, we lose. I don't know what the chances of that are. However, if we lynch a killer today, then we have, at worst, a 50% chance to win with my switch available. So. Which is better, to no lynch and Hope that neither of us die, or to lynch and have at worst a 50/50 chance?

Of course, the other anti-town player would have to join us, but do they have a better shot than 50/50 if they don't?

Grey and yates, you guys seem resigned to no lynching, but can someone at least discuss this with me? Forgive my possible idiocy, but I'd prefer not to go quietly into the night without knowing what I'm walking in to.

[GreyICE]

Hmm.

Interesting proposition.

However, the odds are somewhat less than 50/50.

If you assume D, T, S, where D is Dazzy, T is town, and S is scum:

A) Switch D/S
B) Switch D/T
C) Switch S/T

The scum cases are:
1) Shoot D
2) Shoot T

A1: Town win
A2: Scum win
B1/2: Scum win
C1: Scum Win
C2: Town win

This gives us a 2/6 (or 33%) chance of winning. Obviously this is assuming your reads are null, since case B (switch yourself with town) is the nightmare scenario. However, I have no intention of revealing whether I have my MVP left, and could still dodge, which puts this case back to... hmmmmm

Okay.

Unvote

I'm willing to explore this line of thinking.

IAC I recommend BB, since he's clearly bulletproof, while I kinda doubt Yates is.

[BBmolla]

I wanna lynch Yates.

I don't know what to tell you, I'm not bulletproof. Maybe the mafia have a roleblocker?

[Dazzy]

50/50 was under the assumption I know who the other town member is, and switch accordingly.

Grey, you said yesterday that we need to play the game of mafia. I think that's how this day needs to go, not numbers or mechanics necessarily but mafia. We know I am town, we know two scum who have flipped. That's a decent start. It might be a bit more work but I think it's worth it for town. I got to this point because I've been a pretty weak player so far - I'm under no illusions. Chances are I'll screw up but I'm not going to throw this thing.

Now. I have an exam on Thursday, so my mafia time is a bit limited tomorrow. I will be back Thursday with some analysis.

[GreyICE]

Okay, in that case let me add a simple proposal to this plan.

I'll nominate you for MVP. Yates nominates me. You nominate no one. Scum get no MVP votes. That way tomorrow is the world's shortest day - if you're MVP, Yates, if not, me. That way Yates had to take the shot instead

[Yates]

A few problems with Grey's plan:

1. GreyICE may have a dodge available
2. GreyICE is a Troll
3. GreyICE is going to kill you tonight, Dazzy

[GreyICE]

A problem with your objection, oh mafia member. Glork already confirmed you can't use power roles the same night you use MVP powers. So if I dodge, I can't kill anyone. And if no one dies, well, if Dazzy is the MVP she'll know I'm town. If she doesn't, she knows I'm scum. Is simple, yes?

[Yates]

This is [mostly] true but leads to massive wifom. You could be saying this to make the other scum THINK you are going to dodge so they are tricked into killing a Townie while you kill them thus securing your victory [for example].

Also, a little bit of a slip there, SK. Why would you call me "mafia" and not the general non-specific "scum?" Ooops. The beans - they are spilled. You are SK. BB is mafia. You guys will have to shoot it out to sort it out.

I'm voting Daz for MVP b/c I'm not voting for a Troll. I think I've made that plainly obvious.

[GreyICE]

Because BBMolla is bulletproof, Yates.

We've been over this about 100 zillion times so far. Bulletproof scum, or bulletproof SK. Hmmmm

[Yates]

Because BBMolla is bulletproof, Yates.

We don't have proof BB is BP - just your conjecture/fear.

And none of this changes the fact I'm not giving my MVP vote to a troll. Period.

[GreyICE]

Then don't MVP vote.

But if Dazzy gets MVPed, then I'm confirmed town tomorrow. So don't even bother to fucking play that game.

[BBmolla]

We don't have proof BB is BP - just your conjecture/fear.

^

But if Dazzy gets MVPed, then I'm confirmed town tomorrow. So don't even bother to fucking play that game.

This is so lolbad.

[GreyICE]

BB, scum can't MVP vote.

If we agree that I MVP vote Dazzy, Dazzy MVPs no one, and Yates MVPs no one, then it makes life very easy, yes?

[BBmolla]

scum can't MVP vote

^Sorry GreyIce.

[GreyICE]

Okay, lets do this thing.

Vote: BBMolla

[Yates]

Too late. I gave you the win. You didn't want to take it. Now earn it.

No lynch all day long.

[Yates]

Also, why are you voting BB and not me, Grey? Hmm?? Aren't you 100% sure I'm somehow Gobbo-scum???

[GreyICE]

You won't be a helper? No skin off my nose.

Vote: Yates

BB, support this, because I'll still lynch you over him tomorrow. And don't count on me dying.

[Yates]

Second day in a row you seem to think [know] you are going to live. Why don't you just admit your role already? You two aren't fooling ANYONE.

[GreyICE]

Sure. I'm the guy who was voted MVP.

It helps~

[BBmolla]

I'm waiting for Dazzy to vote.

[Johoohno]

Vote count

(4 players alive = 3 to lynch)

(1) No lynch - Yates
(1) Yates - GreyICE

Not voting

: BBmolla, Dazzy

Deadline

: Monday 30 April 20:00 CET