Open 379: JK9++ (Game Over)

[Phillammon]

I said SPECIFICALLY that you shouldn't challenge me until the massclaim was over. Hence, I made that part clear enough. Good job there.

[Chimera]

But. Why. Didn't. You. Wait. Until. The. Claim. Was. Over??????????????

either way all it proves is that the scum are lying, which is basically a given.

This. A VT had already been claimed.

[Lord Mhork]

How are you not understanding?

IF SCUM HAD LIED WE WOULD HAVE FOUND THEM!

What you're basically saying is that no scum would be dumb enough to fall for such a simple ploy, so we shouldn't try. It doesn't work that way. I'd vote you, but we still have to decide on a vig. Who's your scum buddy?

[The Mini-Librarian]

So.

Chimera is scum. I'm thinking Lowell as a scumbuddy here, but I need to look over past days before I decide.

UNVOTE:

[Phillammon]

I'm agreed here, but there is a niggling feeling in the back of my mind of an incredibly manipulative TML+Mhork scumgroup.

We'll see. Chimera, Intent to vote, here.

[Chimera]

IF SCUM HAD LIED WE WOULD HAVE FOUND THEM!

I already explained this in 648.

...I also like your kondi-slip there. Very nice. Thus I agree with Phil...

[Phillammon]

Good to know, chimera. Mhork is definitely next on the list if you flip town.

[SpyreX]

OK, no more putting this off. I will catch up.

I think I prefer Chim for a shot versus lynch based on this part but that's gut from the last few pages.

[The Mini-Librarian]

OK, no more putting this off. I will catch up.

I think I prefer Chim for a shot versus lynch based on this part but that's gut from the last few pages.

Who would you rather lynch?

(/still haven't read. Will after work.)

[SpyreX]

If I knew that I'd be caught up.

I'm thinking holistically.

[SpyreX]

Up to page 12 and knowing Maru was LYNCHED makes me confused and irritated at you guys.

Also, Phil you want to give me a hand with some data crunching? You guys did some silly d1 that could be really useful at this point - if you'd compile the vig requests AND the hypoclaims in one spot once I'm done we throw in some VCA spice and see if this pans out.

At this point I have warmish feelings about Lowell and Phil ... thats it. Of the rest alive I'm not stoked about any oneelse

[Phillammon]

Gimme some time, I'll put them together

[SpyreX]

Thats one thing we do have.

[SpyreX]

Caught up and maan D2 was a bad day.

Going to do some VCA but gut says its Chimera and Mhork. Lowell is my probably town and even though TML went from "really good" to "really scummy" D2 that early day stuff gives me some pause.

Regardless the chances of it being Lowell-TML are so balls minimal that at minimum there is one between Chim and Mhork. If ONLY one there I'd lean Chim but I'll see what the VCA says.

[SpyreX]

Vote Count 1-1
(2)

IceGuy

(

IceGuy

,

kondi2424

)
(1)

Candy Corn Vampire

(The Mini-Librarian)
(1)

Maruchan

(Phillammon)
(1)

Pizzadudes7

(

MrStrife

)
(1) The Mini-Librarian (

Maruchan

)
(1)

MrStrife

(

Fennin

)

(6) Not Voting (

Candy Corn Vampire

, Chimera, SpyreX, Lord Mhork, Lowell,

Pizzadudes7

)

Vote Count 1-2
(4)

kondi2424

(Lord Mhork,

Maruchan

, The Mini-Librarian,

Fennin

)
(2)

IceGuy

(

IceGuy

, Lowell)
(2)

Fennin

(

Candy Corn Vampire

, Phillammon)
(1)

Pizzadudes7

(

MrStrife

)
(1) The Mini-Librarian (

kondi2424

)

(3) Not Voting ( Chimera, SpyreX,

Pizzadudes7

)

Vote Count 1-3
(2)

kondi2424

(The Mini-Librarian,

Fennin

)
(2)

IceGuy

(

IceGuy

, Lowell)
(2)

Fennin

(

Candy Corn Vampire

, Phillammon)
(1)

Pizzadudes7

(

MrStrife

)
(1) The Mini-Librarian (

kondi2424

)
(1) Phillammon (Lord Mhork)
(1)

Candy Corn Vampire

(

Maruchan

)

(3) Not Voting ( Chimera, SpyreX,

Pizzadudes7

)

Vote Count 1-4
(5) Phillammon (Lord Mhork, Lowell, Chimera,

Maruchan

,

MrStrife

)
(3)

kondi2424

(The Mini-Librarian,

Fennin

, Phillammon)
(1)

Fennin

(

Candy Corn Vampire

)
(1)

IceGuy

(

IceGuy

)
(1) The Mini-Librarian (

kondi2424

)

(2) Not Voting (SpyreX,

Pizzadudes7

)

Vote Count 1-5
(4)

Maruchan

(

kondi2424

, Lord Mhork,

Fennin

, Phillammon)
(2) Phillammon (Lowell, Chimera)
(2)

Fennin

(

Candy Corn Vampire

,

IceGuy

)
(1)

kondi2424

(The Mini-Librarian)
(1)

Candy Corn Vampire

(

Maruchan

)

(3) Not Voting (SpyreX,

Pizzadudes7

,

MrStrife

)

Vote Count 1-6
(4)

Maruchan

(

kondi2424

, Lord Mhork,

Fennin

, Phillammon)
(4)

Fennin

(

Candy Corn Vampire

,

IceGuy

,

MrStrife

, The Mini-Librarian)
(3) Phillammon (Lowell, Chimera,

Maruchan

)

(2) Not Voting (SpyreX,

Pizzadudes7

)

Vote Count 1-7
(5)

Fennin

(

Candy Corn Vampire

,

IceGuy

,

MrStrife

, The Mini-Librarian,

kondi2424

)
(3)

Maruchan

(Lord Mhork,

Fennin

, Phillammon)
(3) Phillammon (Lowell, Chimera,

Maruchan

)

(2) Not Voting (SpyreX,

Pizzadudes7

)

Vote Count 1-8
(5)

Fennin

(

IceGuy

,

MrStrife

, The Mini-Librarian,

kondi2424

,

Maruchan

)
(3)

Maruchan

(Lord Mhork,

Fennin

, Phillammon)
(2) Phillammon (Lowell, Chimera)

(3) Not Voting (SpyreX,

Pizzadudes7

,

Candy Corn Vampire

)

Vote Count 1-9
(6)

Fennin

(

MrStrife

, The Mini-Librarian,

kondi2424

,

Fennin

, Phillammon,

Maruchan

)
(2) Phillammon (Lowell, Chimera)
(1)

Maruchan

(Lord Mhork)

(4) Not Voting (SpyreX,

Pizzadudes7

,

Candy Corn Vampire

,

IceGuy

)

Vote Count 1-10
(6)

Fennin

(

MrStrife

, The Mini-Librarian,

kondi2424

, Phillammon,

Maruchan

,

Candy Corn Vampire

)
(2) Phillammon (Lowell, Chimera)
(1)

Maruchan

(Lord Mhork)

(4) Not Voting (SpyreX,

Pizzadudes7

,

IceGuy

,

Fennin

)

Vote Count 1-11
(7)

Fennin

(

MrStrife

, The Mini-Librarian,

kondi2424

,

Maruchan

,

Candy Corn Vampire

, Lowell, Phillammon)
(1) Phillammon (Chimera)
(1)

Maruchan

(Lord Mhork)

(4) Not Voting (SpyreX,

Pizzadudes7

,

IceGuy

,

Fennin

)

Vote Count 2-1
(2)

Maruchan

(Phillammon,

kondi2424

)
(1) Lowell (The Mini-Librarian)

(8) Not Voting (Chimera, SpyreX, Lord Mhork, Lowell,

Maruchan

,

MrStrife

)

Vote Count 2-2
(3)

kondi2424

(

Maruchan

, The Mini-Librarian, Phillammon)
(1)

Maruchan

(

kondi2424

)

(5) Not Voting (Chimera, SpyreX, Lord Mhork, Lowell,

MrStrife

)

Vote Count 2-3
(3)

kondi2424

(

Maruchan

, The Mini-Librarian, Phillammon)
(2)

Maruchan

(

kondi2424

, Lord Mhork)

(4) Not Voting (Chimera, SpyreX, Lowell,

MrStrife

)

Vote Count 2-4
(3)

Maruchan

(

kondi2424

, Lord Mhork, Phillammon)
(2)

kondi2424

(

Maruchan

, The Mini-Librarian)

(5) Not Voting (Chimera, SpyreX, Lowell,

MrStrife

)

Vote Count 2-4]5
(3)

Maruchan

(

kondi2424

, Lord Mhork, Phillammon)
(3)

kondi2424

(

Maruchan

, The Mini-Librarian, Lowell)

(3) Not Voting (Chimera, SpyreX,

MrStrife

)

Vote Count 2-6
(3)

Maruchan

(

kondi2424

, Lord Mhork, Phillammon)
(3)

kondi2424

(

Maruchan

, The Mini-Librarian, Lowell)

(3) Not Voting (Chimera, SpyreX,

MrStrife

)

Vote Count 2-7
(5)

Maruchan

(

kondi2424

, Lord Mhork, Phillammon, Chimera, The Mini-Librarian)
(2)

kondi2424

(

Maruchan

, Lowell)

(2) Not Voting (SpyreX,

MrStrife

)

[SpyreX]

Hrm

That final Fennin wagon makes me put TML much higher probability.

[Lord Mhork]

IF SCUM HAD LIED WE WOULD HAVE FOUND THEM!

I already explained this in 648.

...I also like your kondi-slip there. Very nice. Thus I agree with Phil...

Elaborate on that 'slip,' yeah?

And this is explaining?

Well did you ever consider the possibility that Phillammon was attempting to draw out false Power Role claims in order to find obv-scums to lynch and shoot for the glorious win? Gah!

Briefly. And then I realized that considering we've had two PR flips, one living PR, and the mafia knowing (almost...one case where there is uncertainty) how many Ts were rolled (assuming they're not idiots) it's either ridiculously simple and inconclusive for them to fake-claim PRs or they'd spot it from a mile away; either way all it proves is that the scum are lying, which is basically a given. As in, the gambit was null. Also, considering that Phil is relatively new it was a possibility that he had miscalculated and wind up believing someone scum for the wrong reasons...which is why I wanted to make sure he wasn't just making a simple mistake.

But they might have made a mistake.

There is absolutely the possibility scum would have slipped up and tried to fake a power role. You seem to know differently. Anyway, all gambits are null until the

end

. You do not, nor have you any way, of knowing whether or not scum would have fallen for this trick--that is, unless you're scum. Even then, you had to make sure your partner didn't do anything antsy, which actually strengthens the idea of a The Mini-Librarian partnership. After all, he is a newbie himself.

In any event. This explains nothing. You have yet to state why you made this moronic declaration

before the popcorning was over.

Pointing out which calculation we likely are on wouldn't in itself be scummy. The way you did it is basically a scum claim.

[Phillammon]

As I said, notice how I said "Don't challenge my reasoning until after the claim"?

That was the hint for you too shut up if you noticed.

Eat rope.

[Chimera]

You're still overlooking simple things. Will reply fully when I have access to a computer/after my final.

[The Mini-Librarian]

Have read over the thread. I really like Mork as scumspect. His day two push was pretty terrible.

[Chevre]

Vote Count 3-2

(6) Not Voting (Chimera, Lord Mhork, Lowell, Phillammon, SpyreX, The Mini-Librarian)

With

6

players alive, it takes

4

votes to lynch.
The deadline for Day 3 is

1 May 2012 @ 3:27pm U.S. Central Standard Time

.

[Phillammon]

In any case, hash or not, the claim has given us information. What we do now is simple. We figure out three lynches. One regular lynch, and two lynches conditional on the flip. We lynch one, vig the other. As for the vote crunching, here goes:
Total votes (a = 1 vote)

From\To

Chimera

Lord Mhork

Lowell

Phillammon

Spyrex's slot

TML

Fennin

CCV

Iceguy

Pizza

Maru

Kondi

MrStrife

Chimera

X

a

a

Lord Mhork

X

a

aa

a

Lowell

X

a

a

a

a

aa

Phil

X

aaaa

aaaa

aaa

Spyrex's slot

X

TML

a

X

a

a

a

All I can glean from this is that I'm a terrible voter, and that Mr. Strife was doing a great job of going undetected. Shame. What do you guys make of it?

[SpyreX]

Im really thinking tml. I dont think its lowell and I doubt there was a no-mafia lynch d1

[SpyreX]

Raw data says TML town - lowell shot / TML scum - Mhork shot.

Having a hard time since gut says Chim highest chance followed by Mhork.

[Phillammon]

Yeah.

Do we have an agreement here?