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Post Post #650 (ISO) » Sun Apr 15, 2012 8:00 pm

Post by Phillammon »

I said SPECIFICALLY that you shouldn't challenge me until the massclaim was over. Hence, I made that part clear enough. Good job there.
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Post Post #651 (ISO) » Mon Apr 16, 2012 1:27 am

Post by Chimera »

Lord Mhork wrote:But. Why. Didn't. You. Wait. Until. The. Claim. Was. Over??????????????


Chimera wrote:either way all it proves is that the scum are lying, which is basically a given.


This. A VT had already been claimed.
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Post Post #652 (ISO) » Mon Apr 16, 2012 3:49 am

Post by Lord Mhork »

How are you not understanding?

IF SCUM HAD LIED WE WOULD HAVE FOUND THEM!


What you're basically saying is that no scum would be dumb enough to fall for such a simple ploy, so we shouldn't try. It doesn't work that way. I'd vote you, but we still have to decide on a vig. Who's your scum buddy?
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Post Post #653 (ISO) » Mon Apr 16, 2012 3:53 am

Post by The Mini-Librarian »

So.

Chimera is scum. I'm thinking Lowell as a scumbuddy here, but I need to look over past days before I decide.

UNVOTE:
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Post Post #654 (ISO) » Mon Apr 16, 2012 4:08 am

Post by Phillammon »

I'm agreed here, but there is a niggling feeling in the back of my mind of an incredibly manipulative TML+Mhork scumgroup.

We'll see. Chimera, Intent to vote, here.
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Post Post #655 (ISO) » Mon Apr 16, 2012 6:03 am

Post by Chimera »

Lord Mhork wrote:IF SCUM HAD LIED WE WOULD HAVE FOUND THEM!


I already explained this in 648.

...I also like your kondi-slip there. Very nice. Thus I agree with Phil...
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Post Post #656 (ISO) » Mon Apr 16, 2012 6:24 am

Post by Phillammon »

Good to know, chimera. Mhork is definitely next on the list if you flip town.
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Post Post #657 (ISO) » Mon Apr 16, 2012 9:10 am

Post by SpyreX »

OK, no more putting this off. I will catch up.

I think I prefer Chim for a shot versus lynch based on this part but that's gut from the last few pages.
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Post Post #658 (ISO) » Mon Apr 16, 2012 9:13 am

Post by The Mini-Librarian »

SpyreX wrote:OK, no more putting this off. I will catch up.

I think I prefer Chim for a shot versus lynch based on this part but that's gut from the last few pages.


Who would you rather lynch?

(/still haven't read. Will after work.)
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Post Post #659 (ISO) » Mon Apr 16, 2012 9:18 am

Post by SpyreX »

If I knew that I'd be caught up.

I'm thinking holistically.
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Post Post #660 (ISO) » Mon Apr 16, 2012 9:55 am

Post by SpyreX »

Up to page 12 and knowing Maru was LYNCHED makes me confused and irritated at you guys.

Also, Phil you want to give me a hand with some data crunching? You guys did some silly d1 that could be really useful at this point - if you'd compile the vig requests AND the hypoclaims in one spot once I'm done we throw in some VCA spice and see if this pans out.

At this point I have warmish feelings about Lowell and Phil ... thats it. Of the rest alive I'm not stoked about any oneelse
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Post Post #661 (ISO) » Mon Apr 16, 2012 10:02 am

Post by Phillammon »

Gimme some time, I'll put them together
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Post Post #662 (ISO) » Mon Apr 16, 2012 10:03 am

Post by SpyreX »

Thats one thing we do have.
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Post Post #663 (ISO) » Mon Apr 16, 2012 10:37 am

Post by SpyreX »

Caught up and maan D2 was a bad day.

Going to do some VCA but gut says its Chimera and Mhork. Lowell is my probably town and even though TML went from "really good" to "really scummy" D2 that early day stuff gives me some pause.

Regardless the chances of it being Lowell-TML are so balls minimal that at minimum there is one between Chim and Mhork. If ONLY one there I'd lean Chim but I'll see what the VCA says.
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Post Post #664 (ISO) » Mon Apr 16, 2012 11:43 am

Post by SpyreX »

Vote Count 1-1
(2)
IceGuy
(
IceGuy
,
kondi2424
)
(1)
Candy Corn Vampire
(The Mini-Librarian)
(1)
Maruchan
(Phillammon)
(1)
Pizzadudes7
(
MrStrife
)
(1) The Mini-Librarian (
Maruchan
)
(1)
MrStrife
(
Fennin
)

(6) Not Voting (
Candy Corn Vampire
, Chimera, SpyreX, Lord Mhork, Lowell,
Pizzadudes7
)

Vote Count 1-2
(4)
kondi2424
(Lord Mhork,
Maruchan
, The Mini-Librarian,
Fennin
)
(2)
IceGuy
(
IceGuy
, Lowell)
(2)
Fennin
(
Candy Corn Vampire
, Phillammon)
(1)
Pizzadudes7
(
MrStrife
)
(1) The Mini-Librarian (
kondi2424
)

(3) Not Voting ( Chimera, SpyreX,
Pizzadudes7
)

Vote Count 1-3
(2)
kondi2424
(The Mini-Librarian,
Fennin
)
(2)
IceGuy
(
IceGuy
, Lowell)
(2)
Fennin
(
Candy Corn Vampire
, Phillammon)
(1)
Pizzadudes7
(
MrStrife
)
(1) The Mini-Librarian (
kondi2424
)
(1) Phillammon (Lord Mhork)
(1)
Candy Corn Vampire
(
Maruchan
)

(3) Not Voting ( Chimera, SpyreX,
Pizzadudes7
)

Vote Count 1-4
(5) Phillammon (Lord Mhork, Lowell, Chimera,
Maruchan
,
MrStrife
)
(3)
kondi2424
(The Mini-Librarian,
Fennin
, Phillammon)
(1)
Fennin
(
Candy Corn Vampire
)
(1)
IceGuy
(
IceGuy
)
(1) The Mini-Librarian (
kondi2424
)

(2) Not Voting (SpyreX,
Pizzadudes7
)

Vote Count 1-5
(4)
Maruchan
(
kondi2424
, Lord Mhork,
Fennin
, Phillammon)
(2) Phillammon (Lowell, Chimera)
(2)
Fennin
(
Candy Corn Vampire
,
IceGuy
)
(1)
kondi2424
(The Mini-Librarian)
(1)
Candy Corn Vampire
(
Maruchan
)

(3) Not Voting (SpyreX,
Pizzadudes7
,
MrStrife
)

Vote Count 1-6
(4)
Maruchan
(
kondi2424
, Lord Mhork,
Fennin
, Phillammon)
(4)
Fennin
(
Candy Corn Vampire
,
IceGuy
,
MrStrife
, The Mini-Librarian)
(3) Phillammon (Lowell, Chimera,
Maruchan
)

(2) Not Voting (SpyreX,
Pizzadudes7
)

Vote Count 1-7
(5)
Fennin
(
Candy Corn Vampire
,
IceGuy
,
MrStrife
, The Mini-Librarian,
kondi2424
)
(3)
Maruchan
(Lord Mhork,
Fennin
, Phillammon)
(3) Phillammon (Lowell, Chimera,
Maruchan
)

(2) Not Voting (SpyreX,
Pizzadudes7
)

Vote Count 1-8
(5)
Fennin
(
IceGuy
,
MrStrife
, The Mini-Librarian,
kondi2424
,
Maruchan
)
(3)
Maruchan
(Lord Mhork,
Fennin
, Phillammon)
(2) Phillammon (Lowell, Chimera)

(3) Not Voting (SpyreX,
Pizzadudes7
,
Candy Corn Vampire
)

Vote Count 1-9
(6)
Fennin
(
MrStrife
, The Mini-Librarian,
kondi2424
,
Fennin
, Phillammon,
Maruchan
)
(2) Phillammon (Lowell, Chimera)
(1)
Maruchan
(Lord Mhork)

(4) Not Voting (SpyreX,
Pizzadudes7
,
Candy Corn Vampire
,
IceGuy
)

Vote Count 1-10
(6)
Fennin
(
MrStrife
, The Mini-Librarian,
kondi2424
, Phillammon,
Maruchan
,
Candy Corn Vampire
)
(2) Phillammon (Lowell, Chimera)
(1)
Maruchan
(Lord Mhork)

(4) Not Voting (SpyreX,
Pizzadudes7
,
IceGuy
,
Fennin
)

Vote Count 1-11
(7)
Fennin
(
MrStrife
, The Mini-Librarian,
kondi2424
,
Maruchan
,
Candy Corn Vampire
, Lowell, Phillammon)
(1) Phillammon (Chimera)
(1)
Maruchan
(Lord Mhork)

(4) Not Voting (SpyreX,
Pizzadudes7
,
IceGuy
,
Fennin
)

Vote Count 2-1
(2)
Maruchan
(Phillammon,
kondi2424
)
(1) Lowell (The Mini-Librarian)

(8) Not Voting (Chimera, SpyreX, Lord Mhork, Lowell,
Maruchan
,
MrStrife
)

Vote Count 2-2
(3)
kondi2424
(
Maruchan
, The Mini-Librarian, Phillammon)
(1)
Maruchan
(
kondi2424
)

(5) Not Voting (Chimera, SpyreX, Lord Mhork, Lowell,
MrStrife
)

Vote Count 2-3
(3)
kondi2424
(
Maruchan
, The Mini-Librarian, Phillammon)
(2)
Maruchan
(
kondi2424
, Lord Mhork)

(4) Not Voting (Chimera, SpyreX, Lowell,
MrStrife
)

Vote Count 2-4
(3)
Maruchan
(
kondi2424
, Lord Mhork, Phillammon)
(2)
kondi2424
(
Maruchan
, The Mini-Librarian)

(5) Not Voting (Chimera, SpyreX, Lowell,
MrStrife
)

Vote Count 2-4]5
(3)
Maruchan
(
kondi2424
, Lord Mhork, Phillammon)
(3)
kondi2424
(
Maruchan
, The Mini-Librarian, Lowell)

(3) Not Voting (Chimera, SpyreX,
MrStrife
)

Vote Count 2-6
(3)
Maruchan
(
kondi2424
, Lord Mhork, Phillammon)
(3)
kondi2424
(
Maruchan
, The Mini-Librarian, Lowell)

(3) Not Voting (Chimera, SpyreX,
MrStrife
)

Vote Count 2-7
(5)
Maruchan
(
kondi2424
, Lord Mhork, Phillammon, Chimera, The Mini-Librarian)
(2)
kondi2424
(
Maruchan
, Lowell)

(2) Not Voting (SpyreX,
MrStrife
)
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Post Post #665 (ISO) » Mon Apr 16, 2012 11:45 am

Post by SpyreX »

Hrm

That final Fennin wagon makes me put TML much higher probability.
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Post Post #666 (ISO) » Mon Apr 16, 2012 5:41 pm

Post by Lord Mhork »

Chimera wrote:
Lord Mhork wrote:IF SCUM HAD LIED WE WOULD HAVE FOUND THEM!


I already explained this in 648.

...I also like your kondi-slip there. Very nice. Thus I agree with Phil...


Elaborate on that 'slip,' yeah?

And this is explaining?

Chimera wrote:
Lord Mhork wrote:Well did you ever consider the possibility that Phillammon was attempting to draw out false Power Role claims in order to find obv-scums to lynch and shoot for the glorious win? Gah!


Briefly. And then I realized that considering we've had two PR flips, one living PR, and the mafia knowing (almost...one case where there is uncertainty) how many Ts were rolled (assuming they're not idiots) it's either ridiculously simple and inconclusive for them to fake-claim PRs or they'd spot it from a mile away; either way all it proves is that the scum are lying, which is basically a given. As in, the gambit was null. Also, considering that Phil is relatively new it was a possibility that he had miscalculated and wind up believing someone scum for the wrong reasons...which is why I wanted to make sure he wasn't just making a simple mistake.


But they might have made a mistake.


There is absolutely the possibility scum would have slipped up and tried to fake a power role. You seem to know differently. Anyway, all gambits are null until the
end
. You do not, nor have you any way, of knowing whether or not scum would have fallen for this trick--that is, unless you're scum. Even then, you had to make sure your partner didn't do anything antsy, which actually strengthens the idea of a The Mini-Librarian partnership. After all, he is a newbie himself.

In any event. This explains nothing. You have yet to state why you made this moronic declaration
before the popcorning was over.
Pointing out which calculation we likely are on wouldn't in itself be scummy. The way you did it is basically a scum claim.
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Post Post #667 (ISO) » Tue Apr 17, 2012 4:09 am

Post by Phillammon »

As I said, notice how I said "Don't challenge my reasoning until after the claim"?

That was the hint for you too shut up if you noticed.


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Post Post #668 (ISO) » Tue Apr 17, 2012 5:26 am

Post by Chimera »

You're still overlooking simple things. Will reply fully when I have access to a computer/after my final.
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Post Post #669 (ISO) » Tue Apr 17, 2012 5:45 am

Post by The Mini-Librarian »

Have read over the thread. I really like Mork as scumspect. His day two push was pretty terrible.
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Post Post #670 (ISO) » Tue Apr 17, 2012 6:02 am

Post by Chevre »

Vote Count 3-2


(6) Not Voting (Chimera, Lord Mhork, Lowell, Phillammon, SpyreX, The Mini-Librarian)

With
6
players alive, it takes
4
votes to lynch.
The deadline for Day 3 is
1 May 2012 @ 3:27pm U.S. Central Standard Time
.

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There will be no holding hands tonight
'Cause what is now wasn't there before and should not be
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Post Post #671 (ISO) » Tue Apr 17, 2012 6:15 am

Post by Phillammon »

In any case, hash or not, the claim has given us information. What we do now is simple. We figure out three lynches. One regular lynch, and two lynches conditional on the flip. We lynch one, vig the other. As for the vote crunching, here goes:
Total votes (a = 1 vote)
From\ToChimeraLord MhorkLowellPhillammonSpyrex's slotTMLFenninCCVIceguyPizzaMaruKondiMrStrife
ChimeraXaa
Lord MhorkXaaaa
LowellXaaaaaa
PhilXaaaaaaaaaaa
Spyrex's slotX
TMLaXaaa



All I can glean from this is that I'm a terrible voter, and that Mr. Strife was doing a great job of going undetected. Shame. What do you guys make of it?
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Post Post #672 (ISO) » Tue Apr 17, 2012 6:21 am

Post by SpyreX »

Im really thinking tml. I dont think its lowell and I doubt there was a no-mafia lynch d1
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Post Post #673 (ISO) » Tue Apr 17, 2012 7:20 am

Post by SpyreX »

Raw data says TML town - lowell shot / TML scum - Mhork shot.

Having a hard time since gut says Chim highest chance followed by Mhork.
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Post Post #674 (ISO) » Tue Apr 17, 2012 7:45 am

Post by Phillammon »

Yeah.

Do we have an agreement here?
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