NY 151: Playground Mafia (Game Over-Mafia Win!)

[Junpei]

I don't really care if you or anyone likes my case.

Then why'd you post it?

[Code_X]

For the record. Khan, Pine, and Junpei are all VERY strong scumreads.

I realize there are only six scum, but unfortunately, I have a few more suspects than I'd like for who the last three are.

Huh?
How you know this.

[Nero Cain]

I don't really care if you or anyone likes my case.

Then why'd you post it?

Why did you avoid my question?

[mastin2]

Also, I can think of a game which meets both criteria: Tricycle Mafia. I had a scumread on Pine which went back and forth, yet despite pushing Pine as scum more often than I was pushing him as town, and despite pushing for the lynch of half his scumteam, I was not nightkilled.

[Nero Cain]

For the record. Khan, Pine, and Junpei are all VERY strong scumreads.

I realize there are only six scum, but unfortunately, I have a few more suspects than I'd like for who the last three are.

Huh?
How you know this.

answer this, Mastun.

[Psyche]

Dang it, I think I just got into confirmation bias mode. Since...

Has mastin even explained his Deas/Psyche read? Or just indicated that he has one where

they are connected scum?

...Reads to me as a scumslip. >_<

Lolk. How?

This, too, mayne.

[drmyshotgun]

Seriously. I have no idea why Pine didn't ask the question: "Hey Mr.Mod, I have a question for you. Is Mason PR? It will be mighty helpful of you to tell us if it is in this game." himself. If he did, and if the mod replied: "No, Pine dear, Mason is just a status like Godfather. Backups don't inherit this as you all should know."

Then

he would have a SOLID case on me.

But you know what? Mod is somewhere else and couldn't answer my question yet. I already know the answer, but I'm just clearing this out for you, cause you don't want to ask it yourself. Well, you must think you are correct Pine, no?

You know it will be pretty damn funny if you argue all the way that Mason is

not

a power role and get me lynched and I flip Mason. I'll have a good laugh at your fate then.

[mastin2]

How you know this.

Experience, combined with math. I did the numbers; I have over 70 on-site non-marathon games (I'm old. ), and over 20 of them are Large Normals.

Math--6/24 = 25%, ideal scum balance, whereas 5/24 = 21% (rounded)--theoretically possible, yes, but that's where the "experience" part comes in; it would be extremely rare to see it on such a low side of the spectrum. 5+SK, maybe, but again, if there are two anti-town kills, they reek of being in the style of two scumteams rather than single scumteam and single player.

For all my faults as a player, I do know my numbers.

[drmyshotgun]

But of course, I am NOT getting lynched. I'll probably get NKed cuz too many Town believe me and only scum would want to delete that belief from the game.

[Psyche]

shotgun is town, btw. If not obvious, yet. Healthy doses of doubt are nice and all, but let's be serious.

[Nero Cain]

shotgun is town, btw. If not obvious, yet. Healthy doses of doubt are nice and all, but let's be serious.

So what do you think of those that are trying to call him scum?

[Junpei]

How you know this.

Experience, combined with math. I did the numbers; I have over 70 on-site non-marathon games (I'm old. ), and over 20 of them are Large Normals.

Math--6/24 = 25%, ideal scum balance, whereas 5/24 = 21% (rounded)--theoretically possible, yes, but that's where the "experience" part comes in; it would be extremely rare to see it on such a low side of the spectrum. 5+SK, maybe, but again, if there are two anti-town kills, they reek of being in the style of two scumteams rather than single scumteam and single player.

For all my faults as a player, I do know my numbers.

25% is ideal with 1 scum faction mostly; you are arguing for two scumteams. Try again.

[Nero Cain]

How you know this.

Experience, combined with math. I did the numbers; I have over 70 on-site non-marathon games (I'm old. ), and over 20 of them are Large Normals.

Math--6/24 = 25%, ideal scum balance, whereas 5/24 = 21% (rounded)--theoretically possible, yes, but that's where the "experience" part comes in; it would be extremely rare to see it on such a low side of the spectrum. 5+SK, maybe, but again, if there are two anti-town kills, they reek of being in the style of two scumteams rather than single scumteam and single player.

For all my faults as a player, I do know my numbers.

25% is ideal with 1 scum faction mostly; you are arguing for two scumteams. Try again.

How do you know its two scumteams and not scum + sk?

[Code_X]

8/24 - 33% doesn't seem all that out to me, I've played in a few big two team games on site which have been similar make-up. I think

specifically

stating 6 is a bit of a slip-up experience or not.

[mastin2]

And hence where the experience comes in. I've never in my time seen two four-man scumteams.

No, seriously.

I've seen a couple of three-four multiscum games (incredibly rare--there are only two I've seen, Emerald City and Amrun's Otters vs Tigers vs Sharks; uneven scumteams are INCREDIBLY hard to balance),

but never two teams of four

*. In seventy games. With something like 2/5ths of them being Large.

Besides, 8/24 = 1/3rd, the highest boundary possible. Math and experience say that four scum on a team is impossible.

Heck, even in a 26-player multiscum game, I'd expect three.

*

*Nevermind, thought of one due to the second-sentence I marked, meaning I HAVE seen it before...once. With 26 players, Mirror Mafia (which gave away its setup via the title) had two teams of four, but it was a 26-player game. Not 24.

[Junpei]

How you know this.

Experience, combined with math. I did the numbers; I have over 70 on-site non-marathon games (I'm old. ), and over 20 of them are Large Normals.

Math--6/24 = 25%, ideal scum balance, whereas 5/24 = 21% (rounded)--theoretically possible, yes, but that's where the "experience" part comes in; it would be extremely rare to see it on such a low side of the spectrum. 5+SK, maybe, but again, if there are two anti-town kills, they reek of being in the style of two scumteams rather than single scumteam and single player.

For all my faults as a player, I do know my numbers.

25% is ideal with 1 scum faction mostly; you are arguing for two scumteams. Try again.

How do you know its two scumteams and not scum + sk?

What? I'm saying that Mastin is saying there are two scum teams; I don't know if there are two or one or an SK; but Mastin is saying 2 scum teams, which is inconsistent with his 6 scum statement. I think there is one scumteam and Mastin is part of it.

I'll vote Mastin if there is support, Nero is great too though.

[Junpei]

By the way, Vi has told me that 33% scum is common/ideal with multiple scum teams. I doubt this is an uncommon stance

[mastin2]

tl;dr: Theoretically, it'd be possible to have two 4-man scumteams, but my experience tells me differently. Like I said. I know my numbers. Two scumteams of 3 in a game of this size is most likely. (Though as I've said, I'm not sold on it. It makes sense, and it fits with everything I know, but I'm far from positive. We really won't know for sure 'til we have a scumflip.)

[Nero Cain]

While the setup speculation is interesting, we had two kills. There's absolutly no way there was a vig kill so its either two 3-4 teams or 5-7 with an SK.

Jun what is your read on TML?

[Code_X]

I once played in a game with 19 players - which had 2 scum teams of 4. Maybe it was a bad set-up.

[mastin2]

42% scum?

Yeah, bad setup.

One can go through the NY games, by the way, and see proof of what I'm saying.

Mirror Mafia had two teams of 4, sure.
Lovers Mafia had two teams of 4, but that was necessary by the very nature of the game.

Every other multiscum game here, from Trumpet's to Rolling in the Deep to Mafia on Werewolf Island to Outdoorsmen Mafia 2...

...Has had two teams of three.

[Code_X]

You make valid points that 6 is most likely.

But 8 isn't impossible and neither 5 or 7 from my experience years back.

4+1 SK
One team of 4 and one of 3.

Anyways, I digress. I need to re-read Red and also answer your questions from the other page.

[Psyche]

shotgun is town, btw. If not obvious, yet. Healthy doses of doubt are nice and all, but let's be serious.

So what do you think of those that are trying to call him scum?

People with weirder views tend to be more outspoken about them, which seems to be consistent here. But asserting that one has a view implies that they actually believe it. Which is something scum do not do. I don't think this bit of psychological knowhow is useful here, though.

Then there's the fact that townies, actually believing their proclaimed reads, will be more prone to the Semmelweis reflex, and be less willing to change their reads about shotgun. For example, FakeGod's commentary about Shotgun's claim that he's unwilling to change his opinion because of shotgun's previous play, as an isolated post, seems like strong town to me.

(I don't have enough experience to know whether the Semmelweis reflex is a good tell or not, though; but I will one day, and will believe it now)

Junpei says that shotgun was obliged to fake a mason QT, but such wasn't really necessary, since he could've easily announced that he could not. But Junpei has a consistent skeptical reflex that might've led to this false positive. Still, I'm not inclined to think Junpei's response has been especially townish. Play in other situations seems fine to me, though, prima facie.

*

Pine's push of shotgun scum seems like a sincere attempt at a case. His habitual subperfect play throughout the game kind of suggests someone active yet not analyzing hard, instead looking for easy reasoning and easy ways to contribute (tring to simplify scumhunting), and his shotgun attack is a culmination of this.

Either he's lazy or he's scum. His consistent keeping up and demonstrated processing of each post suggests the latter, though. Laziness doesn't get one that far, I can assure you from experience. With that in mind, I'm willing tothrow a bone into the Pine gamble. VOTE: Pine

[DeasVail]

Er... Psyche's vote on rack only really made sense as a bus, not as scum voting town.

Why didn't people have a problem with my original reasoning presented in 298.

[Psyche]

Not to mention as town voting town.