Open 392 - Friends & Enemies & Enemies -Corporate Espionage

[Psyche]

Whiskers, the 'obvtown' of the game who successfully crusaded for a scum's lynch is still standing. Isn't it a wonder? Even Whiskers ought to be flabbergasted, given this post: 

Well duh. We know Kcda is scum. 
I'll die tonight-- that's pretty much given afaict. I'm either strong town or strong scum everypony thinks is town, so there's no reason NOT to kill me. 
Do be sure to ride Kcda's ass until he hangs, won't you? 

Also, 

But what if he's a mason.

:/

You were on this lynch, BBMolla. I also have reason to believe you are scum. This question is not useful, and you don't believe it. Why do you bring up the idea, even, that he could be a mason? If you think he could be a mason, why would you vote for him? Because you like lynching masons, that's why. Who else likes to lynch masons?

Mafia.

There's no reason for scum not to lynch Whiskers! It's right there. So what the hell happened?

Let's explore why through that uncertain field of mafiascum science called Night Kill analysis.

...

Here are the Kills of the Game:
raspberrylicious - Scientist(Vanilla Townie) Forced out(lynched) Day One
Kcdaspot - Saboteur(Werewolf) was Forced Out Day 2.

luckyjt - Scientist(Vanilla Townie) was bought off Night 1.
Chrimi - Supervisor(Town Mason) was framed Night 1.
Kassadin - Scientist(Vanilla Townie) was bought off Night 2. 
Darkling_Perhaps - Supervisor(Town Mason) was framed Night 2.

First to point out which scum team "bought off" townies and which scum team "framed" townies. Kcdaspot is our only necessary clue on that matter — his role is the Saboteur implies that he furtively sabotages things. "Framing" works best in this sense.

The framers are the faction that recognized the PR tell inherent in Chrimi's 73:

Buddying does not mean scum in this setup, just pointing that out.

Obviously preferring a PR night kill over a protown night kill, the motivation behind Trevor and Kcdaspot's night kills are obvious. Through some connection tell I haven't specifically looked for, I suppose that they successfully lined up a second PR night kill.


But the N1 and N2 kills are less obvious in their pattern. The players killed were relatively obscure and unproductive and had a moderate (but not a large) amount of suspicion placed on them. It's clear that "Kill the most protown player" was NOT the heuristic used to select night kills. I hypothesize that it was "kill the most likely werewolf, barring ones lined up for future lynches". This would explain kcdaspot's AND BBM's survival during nights and does definitely consist of a viable heuristic.

This hypothesis has a lot of implications, since it characterizes the strategic direction of the mafia's efforts — both during the Night and during the Day.

Next post, I explore what these are.

[Psyche]

Remember, these are our two mafia NKs
luckyjt - Scientist(Vanilla Townie) was bought off Night 1.
Kassadin - Scientist(Vanilla Townie) was bought off Night 2. 

A lot of cognitive biases guide night kills. This is because scum tend to not spend too much analysis on it since the stakes aren't seen to be as high as they are seen by townies trying to lynch scum. There's less metacognition (monitoring of thoughts) and general heuristics are executed through a prism of unregulated bias. 

If shotgun and whiskers are scum, the second night kill makes sense from a cognitive bias perspective.
Shotgun is subject to the attentional bias and especially the Availability Heuristic in his choices — making them by what is more available in memory, which is biased toward vivid, unusual, or emotionally charged examples. Kassadin is the one shotgun would pick out of a pool of the bland players of the game to kill. This is suggested in posts 6, 8, 37, 74, 88, 129, 247, 248, 250, 251. About 1/8th of all his posts this game. ALL are positive or ambivalent about the idea of kass-scum.

He's about as implicated in the kass kill as Whiskers, who definitely did have kassadin targetted as scum, as shown in consistent attacks throughout both D1 and 2. 

Lucky never got explicit attention from anyone still living. His death seems random and can have numerous explanations. No connections to anyone. 

But there's more! — the mafia clearly specifically aimed away from players they thought would - planned to - get lynched the following Day. In both Days, Whiskers and Shotgun explicitly collaborated in the pre-emptive lining up of the next day's future lynch. The first was Kcdaspot and the second was BBMolla, something disrupted by his claim.

 I have to admit, anyone might attack Kassadin and only either shotgun or whiskers has to be scum for this to be valid (and at least one of them IS scum). All of this NK analysis is circumstantial, but creates a scum-lean.

I have individual scumtell-based cases on them, however.

[havingfitz]

OK...I have to start this post off with an apology. I did not thoroughly read Psyche's Trevor case until this morning. This was mostly due to RL Tuesday night and then the limitations of phone reading/posting yesterday. Following my 349 post where I reiterate my position on who is mafia and who is a wolf, Psyche's response gave me cause to go back and read his case more closely.

I have to say...it was very well written and thought out. I love the catch where Trevor uses 'x' to find one player scummy while at the same time using 'x' to find another player town. I'm sure it has been done before but not in any games that I recall...at least not pointed out so clearly. I read that and a smile just broke out on my face. Well done.

That said...while your case for Trevor being a werewolf does in fact point to him being scum of some sort, the fact you base his alignment on your interpretation of Kcda's WIFOM puts your case on him being a werewolf in the same realm of possibility as my PoE based mafia lean on him...also due to Kcda's WIFOM but just from another viewpoint.

And no Shotgun...I am not scum, wolf of mafia.

Sooooo:

I am of the opinion that Trevor, if scum, is likely to be mafia Psyche is of the opinion that Trevor, if scum, is likely to be wolf

I am of the opinion that Shotgun, if scum, is likely to be wolf Psyche is of the opinion that Shotgun, if scum, is likely to be mafia

I am of the opinion that Whiskers, if scum, is likely to be mafia Psyche is of the opinion that Whiskers, if scum, is likely to be mafia

I assume Shotgun is of the opinion that Trevor is a wolf as well since he is going to go against my read on him (regardless of his true alignment)

As we are screwed if we hit the wolf today it is in our best interest to try and avoid those more likely to be a wolf...at least until after one mafia has been eliminated.

The one common read points to Whisker as one of the mafia.

The only thing I need to do is resolve in my mind that Psyche isn't mafia. We ~know he isn't wolf based on the wolf nk taking place but is there anything ruling him out as mafia? His posting is so much better than DK that it's almost enough to take away from the suspicions DK's play incurred. But at the same time, the quality of Psyche's posting/analysis would also indicate competence capable leading us down the wrong path. I started an ISO of Trevor yesterday following my post 349 and I was starting to lose the town lean I had had on him so I think my efforts today are better served doing an ISO on DK/Psyche and Whiskers.

ATT I will say I'm leaning Psyche town and leaning towards a Whiskers vote.

[Dazzy]

The largest employer in the world is the Indian railway system, employing over a million people.

Vote count

(6 players alive = 4 to lynch)

()

Not voting(6/6)(havingfitz, Psyche, drmyshotgun, Trevor, BBMolla, Whiskers)

Deadline

: May 27, 2012

Other Notes:

• Whiskers is V/LA until Saturday, pending restored internet access.

[havingfitz]

Whiskers ISO: Post 36 - What I assume is an RVS on Luckyjt and a serious FOS on Kass. (which I find curious given they were the N1 and N2 mafia kills.

Post 78 - Time to do ISO's? Really? At the start of page 4?

Post 82 - Gives Shotgun some props, bashes kass a little. Overall a good post and good scumhunting in hindsight....wolf hunting in hindsight. Notes Kcda's changing views towards Kass.

Post 103 - Another good scum (wolf) hunting post here. As Whiskers points out in her very next post, having multiple scumteams means everyone should be trying to locate scum.

Post 116 - Whiskers gives Trevor flack for voting raspberry and pushes her scumKass opinion a bit.

Post 130 - More props to Shotgun.

Post 165 - Nice lengthy ISO post on Chrimi. No vote or anything but appears to be planting seeds of doubt.

Post 193 - Hammers raspberry. Not sure I can blame anyone for that as he brought it on himself...but the fact remains it was a mislynch and she basically acknowledges in her hammer post that she doesn't know which faction he will turn out to be...which I read to mean she doesn't care.

Post 205 - Lays groundwork for the next day's effort towards Kcda (nothing wrong with that) and predicts her NK as being a given fact? Wow...how MOI-esque. I was not aware Whiskers had reached auto-N1 elimination status. OK...so why are you still here? You were a major role in unveiling Kcdawolf...why doesn't mafia worry you'll do the same for them? since you are so good. WTH would Luckyjt go before you?

Post 215 - laments her decision to hammer raspberry. Bets he wasn't scum. Hmm....

Post 229 - Messes up the remaining numbers. Gets the numbers of masons and scum right but can even recall how many of her own kind are left? Or does she?

Post 246 - OK...I can't even explain this one. She is on Kcda's case all of D1 and then D2 she doesn't mention him once...instead passing up a Kcda hammer to place a lone vote on Kass. WTF? And then Kass dies N2. Not sure what to make of that.

Nothing jumps out at me in her last two posts. She seems to be putting an effort forth (moreso than D2 at least).

I would not say Whiskers is squeaky clean. Her posting could easily be from manipulative, competent scum. I really don't care for her D2.

I'll get to Psyche asap.

[Psyche]

Yeah. Whiskers is dying today. I have much to do to ensure I don't do badly in school tomorrow, but I'll try to get a whiskers case complete by tomorrow morning. We have loads of time...

[drmyshotgun]

Wow Havingfitz's post contains one thing I really didn't notice.

Whiskers gets the number of her own kind wrong? Since she isn't Mason, she must argue that she is Townie. Yet she says there's only one Townie.

[drmyshotgun]

We can also observe the high rate of drop in activity for her after Day 1 finished.

[Whiskers]

Oh good, two more pages of posting

@BB - My likely Town-mate is Fitz, but I'm uncomfortable with his Wolf thing.

Don't be. He's simply not excluding himself from his information. That means it's useful to all the town players, as well.

@Whiskers: Am I saying you killed Kassadin because he bussed his partner? Why yes. You are a Mafia member eager to get rid of the wolves.
Yes fishing out for Werewolf team is useful but it certainly gives Mafia stronger advantage since they aren't threatened by NightKills if they get rid of the Wolf-Team.

Okay, if I am mafia and want to kill wolves, then I attack the player that might be bussing? Not the player bussed?

Wait, what's the benefit to this again? If I kill the wolves, doesn't that make it easier for the Town to find Mafia? It doesn't really make the Mafia all that much stronger, but it does make the town considerably stronger. If I am acting odd around player X with only one scumteam play, town will read it differently than if I am acting odd around player X with two scumteams in play.

sorry:
tl? dr? with no wolves, the town is ONLY hunting for mafia.

Finding Wolf member is indeed useful.

Good job! Do I get my town points now?

Okay. Answer this: If you don't think Kassadin got Night Killed because someone (likely you) thought he was Wolf, then why oh why is he dead? Why is Kassadin dead? Why would Mafia get rid of Kassadin?

I don't know!? Why WOULD town get rid of Kassadin?! Maybe he

did

get killed because somepony thought he was a wolf! I don't know, I wasn't there. Actually, it's probably better to keep a lurker/troll around. It's another distraction for town. Then again, in a game with rival scumteams and a mason group, maybe it's not. I don't know how the theory works for that.
I would be more likely to kill Kassadin because I don't like lurkers or trolls in my games.

@Whiskers:
I didn't pick you out Whiskers because Psyche paired us.
Well, Psyche did mention you and that was a start.

Right. And since then, how many other players have you looked closely at? How many other players have you re-read?

However I felt strong Town vibes from you on Day 1

Oops.

...and now am feeling that I took that Town read for granted.

OOPS!

I should have taken more sceptical position upon you.
You survived two Nights. Why do you think that is?

I don't know. Wifom? I'm not unhappy that I survived, only surprised.
No, really, how am I supposed to know how scumteams made their desiciouns? (spelling) Maybe one of them said, "Man, she's way off, not attacking either one of us!" or maybe one of them said, "Man, she's attacking me! we should leave her alive, so nopony accuses us of killing her to get the heat off of us!"
I don't know. There are reasons to and to not have killed me.

Also your 1/3 calculation is wrong. There is four cases on the reason of your survival. Whatever side you are on didn't matter for you on Night 1.
Case 1 - Mafia says "Werewolf will get her" and you are werewolf.
Case 2 - Werewolf says "Mafia will get her" and you are Mafia.
Case 3 - Both Mafia and Werewolf says "Someone will get her." You are Town.

What.
WHAT.
"WHAT, WHAT, 1/3 is WRONG! You're so dumb! It's not 1/3! It's 1/4!!! HEre are the four outcomes:
[THREE OUTCOMES]"
WHAT.
WHAAAAAAAT.

It is 2/3 chance for your survival, you see.

Well, if it's 2/3 chance that I survive, why are you attacking me for surviving? Should I beat the odds, and have died?

I really, really don't know what this is supposed to mean or why it makes me mafia.

My my, I suddenly have Whiskers as Mafia.

Cool beans! Could you explain why, please?

Also everyone wants dirty work to be done by someone else than themselves.

Yes, I no longer feel comfortable making a case against myself.

Okay, then until like, post #370 or so, Shotgun is saying I lived because I made a case as to why Kassadin is a better kill target.
I'm gonna say-- isn't it supposed to be good scum play to NOT kill good lynches? Aren't you supposed to kill obvious townies and let the town lynch the townies that look scummy?

We can also observe the high rate of drop in activity for her after Day 1 finished.

Yeah, my internet went out.

I'm fully back, by the way.

Convenient, right?

Could I have a neatly presented list of points against me? Like, why I'm scum? If I'm mafia or werewolf?
I understand that I'm the one being scrutinized, but didn't Psyche just turn all of Shotgun's points against me right back around so they point to Shotgun, too?

[Whiskers]

In my case I presented a case on Whiskers hunting for another Werewolf in Kcdaspot's team.
He pointed out Kassadin.
Kassadin is found dead. Killed by Mafia.

So if Whiskers is Werewolf, she has hunted out Kassadin, someone apparently looking as if Werewolf partner to Kassadin for bussing, for Kassadin to get Dummy-Killed during the Night phase.

Providing better target than herself is best way to protect one's self during the Night.

I need fucking post numbers.
Where did I hunt for Kcda's teammate by pointing out Kassadin?

How could I frame Kassadin as a werewolf partner to Kcda, if Kcda hadn't flipped werewolf yet?

[Whiskers]

Okay, to get it straight,
Werewolves/Saboteurs "frame," and
Mafia/??? "buy out"?

I'm trying to analyze something but idfk whose kills went where.

[drmyshotgun]

Am I the only one saying interesting things to for you?
VOTE: Whiskers

[Dazzy]

Okay, to get it straight,
Werewolves/Saboteurs "frame," and
Mafia/??? "buy out"?

I'm trying to analyze something but idfk whose kills went where.

Apologies if it was unclear, Werewolf kills are indeed posted as "Framed" and Mafia kills as "Bought Off".
Votecount ASAP (though I don't think there are any to count)

[Trevor]

Vote: Psyche

, we can't lynch Whiskers today.

[Psyche]

Woah. Shotgun voted first. That makes him much more likely to be eager scum.

I'm more willing to vote for shotgun. He lined up future lynches that seemed to mesh perfectly with my idea that mafia used "kill the most likely werewolf, barring ones lined up for future lynches" as an NK choice heuristic.

Trevor's vote is even more corroboration of our read on him...


Agh. I'm still uncertain on whiskers. We should let her live today. I still get more townvibes from fitz, but fitz has less content to his name.

[Whiskers]

Didn't you just, JUST say, a second ago, that it's me, today? That I was the lynch?

No, shotgun, but you are the easiest to bash. The things you say are the most flawed, the most wrong, and at the end of the day, you're the most-likely alternative to a Whiskers-lynch.

[Whiskers]

Yeah. Whiskers is dying today. I have much to do to ensure I don't do badly in school tomorrow, but I'll try to get a whiskers case complete by tomorrow morning. We have loads of time...

[Psyche]

Changed my mind. Problem, Whiskers?

[Whiskers]

Luckyjt attacked DeityKabuto (Psyche) throughout Day 1. He was the first mafia kill.

DK (Psyche) did NOTHING that day, except complain about Luckyjt and answer questions addressed directly to him: one from Shotgun (52), and one from Trevor (111). He also did the bit with BBMolla and the "alliance," and respond to Shotgun's distancing from him.

Actually, cancel DK Town read. He's bored. So he might be anxiously expecting some Night partying.

I am being misread. :[

Anyway, Whiskers is my only townread.

And Lucky, you're vote is still on me, it's way after what you guys call 'RVS'. So I'm definitely going to vote you.

Vote Luckyjt

I like this quote.

[Whiskers]

Changed my mind. Problem, Whiskers?

I actually kind of do have a problem.
How much towncred do you get if you lead the lynch on your scumpartner?
Or maybe a better question to ask is,
Other players, how much towncred will Psyche get if he leads the lynch on his scumpartner?

[Psyche]

Well, if we're assuming that Shotgun is scum with that question, we can just lynch him now and deal with me tomorrow.

I'm sure I can handle myself.

Luckyjt never made any truly substantial attack on DK. Besides, I don't think the scum went for "most threatening to our survival". first off, they would choose better players (like you! if you're town!). Second, no one has really been much of a threat to anyone in this game. Wagons haven't been competitive. The idea that anyone living might've felt particularly nervous about the attacks of presently dead townies seems weak.

[Whiskers]

well, yeah, but consider Kcda. He is a weak player-- or at least, he played poorly this game. What is to say he didn't aim for threats to his scumpartner? And DK, who might be just as weak a player-- I wouldn't know, I haven't seen him play in a game for any length of time, he always flakes.

Anyway, just conjecture, so substance to it. But my point is that yes, a Good player would choose nightkills carefully. What if we have noobs, trolls, or poor players as scum? "They would choose better players"

if they were smart about it.

[Psyche]

I'm confused as to the point of this discussion except that NK analysis fundamentally sucks. :S

[Whiskers]

What I'm trying to say is, I think our mafia is made up of players who are bad at choosing nightkills, ie, Shotgun and maybe DK.

Also,

Shotgun is pingin my radar.

You wanna ping my pong?

Buddying does not mean scum in this setup, just pointing that out.

True, but is it useful for Town?

Shotgun, any reads yet?

Hmm, let's see.
Raspberrylicious, havingfitz, Whiskers didn't do much.
DK looks bored.
Trevor's getting somewhere.
BBMolla needs to show me how "real" scumhunting is done.
Liked Luckyjt's Post#53, but other than that he's still in-development.
Chrimi is approaching this game with plenty of jest and jollyness canceling out with his buddying towards me (and BB earlier) to give null read.
Kcdaspot is confident Einstein, but has suspiciously rounded up the usual suspects already (plus he removed Kassadin from his list)
Kassadin is still a Troll and I'm wondering why his head is still intact with his mountainous body.

Town reads on DK, Trevor. Must kill on Kassadin.
The rest is null.

Actually, cancel DK Town read. He's bored. So he might be anxiously expecting some Night partying.

here, he accidentally gives DK a townread and then takes it back.
Also townreads Trevor.

[Whiskers]

Regardless of what I think, you promised us a case on me, iirc.