Open 392 - Friends & Enemies & Enemies -Corporate Espionage

[Psyche]

Sigh. I'll get to it.

[Dazzy]

Warner Chappel Music owns the copyright to the song 'Happy Birthday'. They make over $1 million in royalties every year from the commercial use of the song.

Vote count

(6 players alive = 4 to lynch)

(1)Whiskers - drmyshotgun
(1)Psyche - Trevor

Not voting(4/6)(havingfitz, Psyche, BBMolla, Whiskers)

Deadline

: May 27, 2012

Other Notes:

[havingfitz]

OK...crash yesterday prevented my DK/Psyche ISO, here it is:

In post 31 DK responds to a Luckyjt post and comes across a bit defensive.

In post 52 DK claims to not be mafia. He doesn't say he isn't scum, as if the possibility of wolves isn't even on his mind, he is focused on pointing out he isn't

mafia

.

In post 55 and post 107 DK has some back and forth with Lucky and ends up voting him (essentially OMGUS).

After some more exchanges with Lucky DK votes raspberry for no reason (other than his "alliance" with BBmolla).

This was the end of DK's participation.

Enter Psyche:

By the time Psyche shows up on D3, D2 has already finished without any posts by DK and Kcda is already gone. We're down to 2 mafia and 1 wolf.

In post 306 Psyche lays out the state of the game in a clear manner. Townish.

In post 310 Psyche has cracked the case! j/k. His next few posts are to confirm his case. Putting effort into explaining his reads seems more townish than saaay Trevor's short/non-existent explanations (to name one...there may be others just as bad).

I've given my opinion of Psyche's case in post 310.

********Break**********

I have to take care of a few RL things and will continue later. I feel a Shotgun ISO may be necessary as well.

More BBmolla would be nice too!

[drmyshotgun]

Definitely more Molla.

[BBmolla]

Yeah sorry.

Plan on giving this a go tomorrow. I keep putting this off because I dread having to deal with this situation.

[Psyche]

Yeah sorry.

Plan on giving this a go tomorrow. I keep putting this off because I dread having to deal with this situation.

Yeah.

[Whiskers]

ANY NEWS, PSYCHE?
Wasn't there something, oh, three days ago, where you promised a case on me by the next morning?

And then I asked you about it? And you said "I'll get to it"?

Did you "get to it" yet?

[Psyche]

No. I haven't. But I'll get to it.

[havingfitz]

Busy with Mother's Day stuff....will finish my thoughts on Psyche asap (possibly tomorrow).

[havingfitz]

EBWOP

The line in my post 402 about having already given my opinion on Psyche’s post 310 should have been directed to my post 377..

Back to my Psyche read through…

In post 359 Psyche ponders Whisker’s continued existence (something I rarely associate as a scumtell for anyone BTW). Psyche mentions my opinion that kass was a viable scumtarget. I would say at the point that comment was made that I thought everyone was potentially scum (assuming that what you mean by scumtaget) and my lone mention of kass was to place him in a group of 4 players (Trevor,BB,Shotgun and kassadin) who I thought had a strong likelihood of containing scum. Which still has a good chance of proving correct I might add.

In post 375 Psyche provides some more solid scumhunting. Question to Psyche…if the mafia were focused on killing the most likely werewolf…would that be a explanation for Whisker’s continued existence? Also…you say this pattern explains kcdaspot’s and BBM’s survival during nights. I get the BBM point,but how does it explain kcda’s survival during the night?

In post 376 Psyche uses the word

metacognition

. That made me laugh. OK… Carrying on…wait!

A prism of unregulated bias?

Give me a moment to compose myself.

Semantics aside,ok…I see your point the in the previous post as to why Kcda and BBM may have not been night targets. And I can see the link between Kass’ NK being tied to Whiskers. Not sure I see the Shotgun link (which would support my suspicion he is a wolf) to kass…and even if they (Whisker’s and Shotgun) were both interested in targetting kass as a night target,it wouldn’t necessarily mean they (Whixker’s and Shotgun) were the same alignment. Hypothetically,if Shotgun was the wolf and Whisker’s were mafia,they could both have an interest in killing kass as they would at least know he [kass] wasn’t the same alignment as they were. I’m doing my ISO on my phone and will check back on the Shotgun possibilities afterwards. But overall a good post.

Regarding post 389,Shotgun can be eager scum of the wolf variety. Also…how does Trevor’s vote on you indicative of his variety of scum alignment? At this point I agree Trevor is scum but I still lean more towards him being mafia than wolf. And conversely that Shotgun is more likely wolf than mafia. And while we do seem to disagree on the variety of scum those players are…we do seem to feel Whiskers is mafia.

Since we don’t want to mess up and target the last wolf today I think the safest play would be an agreed upon mafia member (ie Whiskers).

In post 397 you mention that NK analysis fundamentally suck….isn’t that what you are basing a lot of your reads today on? I see the NK analyses as being equally WIFOM-esque to my views on Kcda’s going away post. Hence our disagreements on the last wolf.

That all for Psyche.

In summary…as bad as I thought DK’s D1 posts were,Psyche has more than made up for them. And having played several games with DK…I’m accustomed to him playing poorly as town. So with the degree of scumhunting at least attempted by Psyche,I am more in the Whiskers is scum camp. My current reads are wolf = Shotgun and mafia = Whiskers,Trevor.

Thoughts?

[drmyshotgun]

Can we kill Whiskers already?

[Whiskers]

Can we succinctly explain why already?

[Psyche]

Sigh...Okay. Whiskers case within the next hour or so.

I'm more uncertain than ever that shotgun is scum, but I still think so by virtue of the likelihood that fitz is town.

NK analysis is fine for the werewolves because kcdaspot has been quite transparent this game. But for the mafia, I admit that it doesn't work well at all.

[Psyche]

Okay, screw this. I'm lazy and I have an exam tomorrow and the only person with objection to a Whiskers lynch is Whiskers.

Without much analysis of Whiskers' posts, I lay out this argument for her lynch:

BBMolla and I are confirmed town in my eyes.
Trevor is confirmed werewolf.
Fitz's posts today are superb and provide more reason to keep him alive to endgame than to lynch him.

That leaves two people — shotgun and Whiskers.

Unless someone can convincingly explain either why Trevor is probably town or mafia, or why Fitz is probably

not

town, I have no reason already to not believe, by virtue of the other players in this game, that Whiskers and Shotgun are scum.

[Trevor]

Okay, screw this. I'm lazy and I have an exam tomorrow and the only person with objection to a Whiskers lynch is Whiskers.

Without much analysis of Whiskers' posts, I lay out this argument for her lynch:

BBMolla and I are confirmed town in my eyes.
Trevor is confirmed werewolf.
Fitz's posts today are superb and provide more reason to keep him alive to endgame than to lynch him.

That leaves two people — shotgun and Whiskers.

Unless someone can convincingly explain either why Trevor is probably town or mafia, or why Fitz is probably

not

town, I have no reason already to not believe, by virtue of the other players in this game, that Whiskers and Shotgun are scum.

Since I believe Whiskers is the werewolf, I object to the Whiskers lynch.

[drmyshotgun]

Two people disagree Whiskers lynch. That is still 4 people who are in favor (do you agree Molla?). We'll get that lynch.

[Psyche]

Okay, screw this. I'm lazy and I have an exam tomorrow and the only person with objection to a Whiskers lynch is Whiskers.

Without much analysis of Whiskers' posts, I lay out this argument for her lynch:

BBMolla and I are confirmed town in my eyes.
Trevor is confirmed werewolf.
Fitz's posts today are superb and provide more reason to keep him alive to endgame than to lynch him.

That leaves two people — shotgun and Whiskers.

Unless someone can convincingly explain either why Trevor is probably town or mafia, or why Fitz is probably

not

town, I have no reason already to not believe, by virtue of the other players in this game, that Whiskers and Shotgun are scum.

Since I believe Whiskers is the werewolf, I object to the Whiskers lynch.

Trevor. For you to win, we have to lynch mafia either way.

[BBmolla]

I'm getting to this tonight, promise.

[Whiskers]

posting this for myself, because it's really confusing for me.

2 Vanilla Townies
1 Town Masons
2 Mafia Goons
1 Werewolves

Trevor, havingfitz, Whiskers, DeityKabuto (Psyche), BBMolla, dryshotgun.
posting this for myself, because it's really confusing for me.

2 Vanilla Townies
1 Town Masons
2 Mafia Goons
1 Werewolves

Trevor, havingfitz, Whiskers, DeityKabuto (Psyche), BBMolla, dryshotgun.

[drmyshotgun]

You said the same thing twice in one post
You said the same thing twice in one post

[Whiskers]

So, Process of Elimination?
And Psyche, havingfitz is town because good posts, lategame?
Actually, it doesn't matter, I'm only scum to havingfitz due to PoE too.

Others are doing better scumhunting while I am not doing any at all. I am voted most likely Mafia because I killed Kcdaspot. Plus, three scum (half of the players) are in support of my lynch because it not lynching them.

Then there's BBMolla, Me, and some other townie.

Psyche: You keep pushing that Shot and I are Mafia together. That is stupid, the way he's been attacking me. And yeah, I know, WIFOM and bussing.

I don't know who is on what team, I don't think I can build

solid

cases on ALL of the other players enough to incriminate them and convince all of the scum-- Psyche says havingfitz is town because he's been scumhunting, havingfitz says Psyche is town because he's been scumhunting. What do?

Why is Trevor scum, by the way? Either one of you could answer this.

[Psyche]

Done.

First, Trevor's scumminess and Trevor's connection with Kcdaspot. These are two separate points that I am making, but they are not mutually exclusive.

[spoiler="Trevor" is a Werewolf Name, P1]Trevor is probably the last werewolf. 

Before his relatively weak towntell in post 54, his early posts consist of not only fluff, but of fluff that reads as disingenuous and manufactured. He asks a set of questions that definitely

matter

and make him look good, but don't count as content. His posts remind me of Staeg, my scumbuddy in Open 396. They are pretty effective as a scumstyle, but are ultimately vacuous and scummy.

After 54, however, he progressively changes a null read into a kcdaspot's-scumbud read.
68, 109 and 112, again, are helpful but not townful. One important highlight of these posts his his bandwagon on the raspberry wagon for weak reasons.

Actually, cancel DK Town read. He's bored. So he might be anxiously expecting some Night partying.

I am being misread. :[

Anyway, Whiskers is my only townread. 

And Lucky, you're vote is still on me, it's way after what you guys call 'RVS'. So I'm definitely going to vote you.

Vote Luckyjt

DK, is that your only basis for a read on Lucky?

I feel like Darkling explained himself adequately.

Vote: rasberrylicious

until he does something, because right now, his posts are scum.

He presumably wagons because "his posts are scum" and there's a need for him to do something. Pathetic, and just like scum to justify taking a cookie from the jar with a short-but-definitely-

present

explanatory blurb.

But more importantly, in all this, he blatantly

ignores Whisker's case on Kcdaspot

and instead chooses to vote raspberry. Let's analyze this closer.

Finally, which of you, (4) Raspberrylicious - BBMolla, Trevor, drmyshotgun, Kassadin, actually thinks raspberrylicious is actually scum?

And why?

Cause he's scum and won't put effort into posting unless we run him up.

Whiskers is probably scum too.  Maybe.  Still deciding, give me a bit.

Don't tell anybody, but Whiskers and I are scum partners.

Besides the scumclaim, he hasn't done shit and everything he says sounds like subtle trolling.

I don't like the bandwagon on Kcda that much. He sounds more like a trolling/dgaf player more than a scum-motivated player.

Whiskers and Darkling are townreads for their Whiskers' analysis and Darkling's read list.

Sorry, I've been extremely busy. Just my thoughts after catching up.

This

, however, is the clincher. Look closely. 
Why is he voting for raspberry?

everything he says sounds like subtle trolling.

Why does he think kcdaspot is town?

He sounds more like a trolling/dgaf player

Think about this. Let X = a single, constant justification for a belief.
Trevor thinks raspberry is SCUM because of X.
Trevor thinks kcdaspot is TOWN because of X.

Does this make sense? No. Because Trevor scumslipped and failed to manufacture this post properly. He is scumbuds with kcdaspot and wanted raspberry lynched because he was NOT kcdaspot.[/spoiler]

Next, I will consider Kcdaspot's activities regarding Trevor. Alone, neither of these are enough to connect Trevor to Kcdaspot, but together we have a strong case that 1) Kcdaspot has been waging a WIFOM campaign regarding Trevor from his first post with the sole intent of distancing from him and 2) that Trevor, instead, has been actively ignoring him and

indirectly (and thus furtively)

working to keep him from being lynched.

Spoiler: Pt2: Trevor is a name for a Werewolf's Best Friend

Trevor is most probably the last werewolf. 

I believe that kcdaspot initiated a strategic WIFOM campaign on Trevor starting on 186 and 188 and culminating on 256-257. Kcdaspot obviously has the gambitting spirit and it makes the most sense for it to be that way. His goal was to activate within us the Ambiguity Effect — our unwillingness to consider options involving pronounced uncertainty. We cannot allow this tactic to be successful — Trevor is clearly the werewolf.

First, I will catalog kcdaspot's WIFOM campaign.

VOTE: trevor

Who the fuck are you and why do you have a normal name?

Fos: Kass

Trevor vote.

I think trevor may be scummy after reading his iso.

He's STILL voting darkling after voting hime for quote "two odd foses"

And now he says darkling is town. And he doesn't unvote. HMMMM

This is so botched up as to be an obviously strategic move to leave connections with Trevor. He is definitely NOT distancing from Trevor here; he is, in fact, "laying a tell". 

Alone, we would only get WIFOMy about this. 
There are two reasons I don't think we have to — 1. Kcdaspot revealed his plans so obviously in his self-hammer post, and 2. Trevor himself is scummy, and

along with that

his own behavior shows obvious connections to Kcdaspot.

At the

very least

I'm thinking the following quote is a way of kcdaspot backtracking on his Trevor connections by WIFOMing them to oblivion. 

VOTE: kcdaspot

PAHAHAHAHAHA

I GO DOWN OUTTING THE MASON GROUP FUCKERS.

HEY OTHER SCUM FUCKS: PROPOSITION.

MY PARTNER GOES AFTER WHISKERSCONFMASON AND YOU GUISE TAKE CARE OF EITHER TREVOR OR MOLLA.

IF YOU HAVE A BETTER READ ON THE MASONY THAN ME GO AHEAD AND KILL WHO EVER IS LAST MASON GUY THEN. DON'T NEED A NAMED TOWNIE DON'T WE?

LATER CLOWNS

Kcdaspot chose BBMolla because he seemed like a plausible townlynch upon whom a reasonable amount of doubt could be placed on. Trevor, however, was the plan from the beginning. Why Trevor? Because Trevor is Kcdaspot's scumbuddy and Kcdaspot knows that townies naturally avoid considerations of WIFOM. I know from my studies of psychology where this natural avoidance comes from — but it's a common aspect of site meta by itself.


I don't expect this case on kcdaspot alone to get you to agree with me about Trevor. It, combined with my case on Trevor, should be the clincher.

Thank you. It's wordy, but every word counts. I'm no mastin.

[Psyche]

I suppose I might be wrong. But I only have to be half-right today.

[Whiskers]

Well, no, 1/3 right-- one werewolf, two mafia.

Alright, how about this: Once I flip mafia, where do you go from there?

[BBmolla]

Could we make a chart of who thinks who is what possibly?

This would help me significantly.