TM2012: White Flag Mafia (Game Over)

[Equinox]

Vote Count 1.26

Amrun (3) - Johhog, Captain Falcon, Regfan
Cogito Ergo Sum (3) - Benmage, Thestatusquo, Llamarble
Johhog (3) - SocioPath, Matias, Amrun
Thestatusquo (3) - singersigner, Cogito Ergo Sum, Zachrulez
Zachrulez (1) - Bub Bidderskins

Not Voting (0)

With 13 alive, it's 7 to lynch.

The deadline is Monday, May 21, 2012, at 12:00 AM EDT (UTC-4).

[Matias]

I'm here. On vacation, but still have access.

Reading the last few pages

[Matias]

Amrun's motivations are looking weirder but I'm not sure if they're necessarily scummy.

I will do some analysis when I'm not drunk.

[singersigner]

Amrun finds me scummyyyyy...why, because I don't see these "obvious" things, as obvious as she does? Or because I keep pointing out when she's clearly misguided?

@Amrun...since when did you find Shea so scummy? You realize that two other people in your suspect pool are fighting quite hard to get a third one lynched, right? What does that tell you of the three of our alignments?
Also, where did Johhog say that he was providing content? Like, does he ever literally say "hey, I'm providing content guyz"?

@Regfan...can we pleasepleaseplease lynch Shea first? As shitty as her play's been so far, I'm having a hard time grasping at its scumminess outside of her connection to Shea. Basically Shea is scum regardless of Amrun's alignment, and I'd really like to see him flip first.

[Regfan]

@Regfan...can we pleasepleaseplease lynch Shea first? As shitty as her play's been so far, I'm having a hard time grasping at its scumminess outside of her connection to Shea. Basically Shea is scum regardless of Amrun's alignment, and I'd really like to see him flip first.

While I can see where you're coming from I actually believe the opposite. That being that I can see Amrun as scum regardless of TSQ's alignment. I'm really hoping people look at the fact that her 'scumhunting' or 'cases' have been on weaker players (Which is what scum would do in this exact position since pushing anyone else leads towards them being able to defend themselves well). If her lynch doesn't gain enough momentum before deadline hits I'll move to TSQ though.

Honestly, given the amount of strong town reads I have I think there's a great chance of them both being mafia ignoring any connection between them. With that said my biggest worry is that I get NKed tonight to watch the town eat itself alive. I really cannot stress enough how confident I am in Bub/Matias/Captain and Johhog being town and to a slightly lesser extent to you, CES and Benmage. If I do die I want this reads section requoted over and over again.

Maguas in the process of reading through this game so I'll see what he says about it other than the fact that he hates mountainous and hates all of us.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

You've refound your confidence then, Regfan?

SHEA-LLAMARBLE-BENMAGE 2012

[Regfan]

Yeah, feeling a LOT more confident now then I was earlier.

Also I can see both Llarmable and Shea as scum but I think you're wrong about Benmage. I really think he'd play a completely different game than this as scum.

[Llamarble]

Actually, my reasoning could fall under his umbrella term "I like the setup", but I will oblige you Zach.

LLamarble is an intelligent player. He is also a good player, touting an impressive win to loss ratio, and even going as far as listing himself an 8 or a 9 in terms of player skill. Although I can't find the thread, I remember his explanation of the reason vividly. Essentially, LLmarble's definition of a good player is the rate of turnaround when replacing into a slot. Turning a bad slot into a protown slot that lives to endgame is one of his primary criteria for viewing another player as "good".

Llmarble's cockiness is just the type of thing that would lead me to believe he chose scum again (given the option). However, that rests on the question - did he have the option? Given his play, I think so.

I think you are confusing the 'wins above replacement' statistic with me saying something about playing well as a replacement.
My whole team is cocky, hence 'three dicks.' I'm not sure what that would have to do with choosing games though.

I am way behind on sleep (headache-point), so I can't do any real digging tonight.
MoI supports a Zach flashwagon.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Also I can see both Llarmable and Shea as scum but I think you're wrong about Benmage. I really think he'd play a completely different game than this as scum.

Hmmm. You might have a point there.

[Regfan]

Also if Amrun flips scum I think the chances that Socio is scum is decreased by quite a bit.

[Equinox]

Thestatusquo has been prodded.

[Johhog]

Yes it's a wall, suck it. I shouldn't get any further behind now because I'm all caught up (and don't need to catch up more, as the case was).

Also, Johhog gets a few extra town points for bringing up Benmage's bullshit with not calling Shea scum, when he clearly did.

@Matias...how do you feel about Benmage?

Uhmmm can you quote be calling him scum... I wouldn't be that surprised if I did more as a PoE thing, due to town reads etc etc... all I see is him in "other and remainder "....

-johog, I fail to see the point of your post... can you say something with more substance please.

My point is that if you're really suggesting that your "remainder" part of your reads weren't scum reads you haven't had a single scum read this game. Hence the "...seriously?". I also think that you're grasping at straws here because you clearly thought TSQ was scum at the time and you have a hard time explaining it away. Thirdly I'm angry because I seem to be close to the only one that find you scummy.

Hello, my friends and enemies

I have just a few things to say
I am a Captain, here to stay
With moves like fire
a killer desire
No wonder the scum won't come out and play
Afraid of my prowess, they hide and quiver
My sheer presence makes them

SHIVER

You're

who

?!

I'm happy with my vote and I'll not change it before we reach a consensus in the team. As of now the four of us have 3 scum reads together and it's only one of us who has a scum read on either, Isa thinks that Zach is scum, PeregrineV thinks that CES is scum and I think that Benmage is scum.

But yeah, your case is weak. Like extremely weak. I just can't see how asking for a case is scummy.

He's happy with his vote, despite never explaining more like he said he would.

I was happy with it and I would still be (team believed that there's a higher chance of you being scum). See Amrun, you're confusing unwillingness to explain votes for my inability to pressure people. I'm just bad at it. I realise I could've tried a little more this game though and yeah - I've not played that great this game. But I think you're painting completely normal behaviour for me as scummy and this makes you scummier in my eyes.

I'm in basically the same situation on Johhog.

I'd pay to know what this is, it's pretty hard to defend yourself otherwise.

But I'll tell you one thing; if you suspect me for out of game reasons (lex Regfan) I'll be fucking mad post-game.

I really hate this post. I kind of skimmed over it at the time, but it's been bugging me. I'm not sure what it is about it, but I find it scummy. I thought about it a little bit and decided I think it feels like a "scum annoyed to be caught for the wrong reasons" post.

To me it looks like "town annoyed that Llamarble is using out of game reasons to justify scum reads". I believe you're just trying to find reasons that I'm scum by now. The wording "I'm notsure what it is about it, but I find it scummy" is revealing.

You're completely missing the point, everyone of you. I'm not saying that TSQ isn't contributing (which he is) but that he wasn't contributing at a time when he claimed to be, which means SCUM POINTS. But you want a straight answer to if I'd support a TSQ-lynch or not you can get one; I won't, not at this time. I read him as null leaning on scum.

This really annoys me. We've been talking about how I don't think it's a valid attack. TSQ CLEARLY meant, "I'm here, I'm posting, and I'm trying to play this game," but Johhog tries to twist it into a scumtell because TSQ didn't post long analysis yet. I showed before how he was WRONG to say TSQ had posted no content, but even if that HAD been true, it's taking the heart of what TSQ was saying and twisting it in a way that I find really scummy.

Oh my fucking... I refuse to believe that you're this bad at reading which makes me think you're scum but seriously, look at this:

I am aware its not a non-serious wagon. I just think that as long as I remain here and continue to post content that it should not remain a serious wagon. Surely there are better candidates to lynch than someone who just got caught up in the real world for a little bit.

I just think that as long as I remain here and continue to post content that it should not remain a serious wagon.

I just think that as long as I remain here and continue to post content

continue to post content

How on earth am I twisting anything when it's there, black and white?

Johhog has now talked more about why TSQ is scum than anyone else in the game, period. And yet, his vote is on me. Why? I don't know. I don't think Johhog knows. It reeks of opportunism, and he's setting himself up to get on the popular votee TSQ's wagon should that become viable in deadline.

VOTE: Johhog

Oh god. I've said multiple times that I read TSQ as null leaning on scum, not more and not less which means that I would prefer you or Benmage or probably even SocioPath over TSQ. The reason that I'm mentioning TSQ so much is because I have to reiterate the same thing again and again because half of the players in this game apparently are illiterate.

It's like you're not even trying Amrun. You're only worried about getting lynched and thus you jump on another popular suspect - me.

Which reminds me - Johhog, can you provide me with some scum meta, please?

http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=50&t=18487
The only one I can recall right now, I have a couple of scum games in hydras too, I guess I can dig these up if it's really important. Is it?

I think you are confusing the 'wins above replacement' statistic with me saying something about playing well as a replacement.

Nah, I remember you saying that thing too. I don't think it's relevant to your alignment this game though.

Also if Amrun flips scum I think the chances that Socio is scum is decreased by quite a bit.

Please explain. I don't see anything that would indicate this.

Just to reiterate; I want Amrun lynched and it's obvious that she's trying to misrepresent me because I'm also suspected.

[Regfan]

Please explain. I don't see anything that would indicate this.

The biggest reason is #87. Amrun seems to legitimately forget that Socio was in the game/played in the game last year and if they were scum together I think it's something that would have come to their attention pre-game. Also don't think it's something they'd plan to fake as scum.

Plus a smaller reason is that Socios 'case writes themselves' without voting Amrun doesn't seem like something he'd do to a partner. If he wanted to buss or create points against a team-mate he'd vote alongside it to attain some form of credit later + other interactions don't read as partners.

[Zachrulez]

We're nearing the end of the day, we're going to have to start moving towards a lynch so it's not last minute scramble. Bub, while I think Zach has a decent chance of being scum given that his posts have really gone downhill in this game he's not being lynched today so move to Amrun please.

If you seriously believe that, I really don't know what to tell ya.

[Zachrulez]

Frankly right now I'm annoyed that TSQ is looking increasingly unlikely to be lynched despite slipping back into lurking, (Who just received yet another prod?) and the other major wagons (I'm satisfied with Johhog's response re: reasoning for voting Amrun.) just downright depress me. Not going to be happy if those are the only lynch options when deadline nears.

[Bub Bidderskins]

This:

MoI supports a Zach flashwagon.

And this:

Thestatusquo (4) - singersigner, Cogito Ergo Sum, Zachrulez, Llamarble

Make me think that a Llamarble/Zach scum team is impossible.

[Bub Bidderskins]

But, on that note, my scumread on Haddock is lessening. I like Captain Falcon so far, and even though I know it doesn't matter at all, I can't help but feel less passion for that Ajax flipped scum. I'm trying to reason myself with statistics that I know. I did think Haddock's replace out was a minor town tell, though.

The chance that Falcon's team got 2 or more scum PMs is 89%, I believe. Of course, its almost certain that at least one team got 2 or more PMs, so we can't clear him just based off of that.

We're nearing the end of the day, we're going to have to start moving towards a lynch so it's not last minute scramble. Bub, while I think Zach has a decent chance of being scum given that his posts have really gone downhill in this game he's not being lynched today so move to Amrun please.

If there's no support for a zach lynch by tomorrow evening, then I'll switch to Amrun.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

There are scenarios where team mates flipping scum or town would be meaningful, but I really don't see how Captain Ajax's alignment is supposed to be linked to Captain Falcon's. It's null.

MoI supports a Zach flashwagon.

And this:

Thestatusquo (4) - singersigner, Cogito Ergo Sum, Zachrulez, Llamarble

Make me think that a Llamarble/Zach scum team is impossible.

Really? Impossible? Because MoImarble throws some suspicion his way and they happen to have been on the same wagon at some point?

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

P.S. people should start compromising onto the sheawagon soonish.

[Captain Falcon]

I haven't really had the time to devote a read through of this game and there is sparse QT talk of this game in my Team QT so I'll need a little more time.

I do have some opinions.

Socio, why did you refuse to answer Amrun's post about chosing this game? The answer to this question last year, and I'll quote it is much more comforting about your alignment than the one you gave this year.

The mountainous setup is one that is pretty generally stated as being unbalanced for town.
I feel this is bullshit and people keep relying on power roles and using them as a crutch.
There is nothing more pure than actually having to use your words and rely on that instead of waiting around for silly night actions.
Or hiding behind soft claims, or bread crumbs, or cryptography, or other silly nonsense.
Even though this game waters it down a bit with its non-needing of killing the last scum.
So I picked this game for a sense of proof, to show what can be done.
Considering I've won mountainous games in the past, and that was to the last scum dead.
So playing as scum in this game would be counter-productive the point, and would only re-enforce the negative lighting.

In fact your whole play last year seems to be a lot more powerful, energetic, and eager. Your play here is almost the complete opposite of the vigor you had. It is sending off warning bells because you haven't expressed hard feelings of realistically wanting to get anyone lynched and your current vote on Johhog, what are you even trying to accomplish? The comments you made when placing the vote indicate it is mainly for pressure, is my impression correct? Are you intentions still for pressure?

Vote Count 1.26

Amrun (3) - Johhog, Captain Falcon, Regfan
Cogito Ergo Sum (3) - Benmage, Thestatusquo, Llamarble

Johhog (3) - SocioPath, Matias, Amrun

Thestatusquo (3) - singersigner, Cogito Ergo Sum, Zachrulez

Zachrulez (1) - Bub Bidderskins

Not Voting (0)

With 13 alive, it's 7 to lynch.

The deadline is Monday, May 21, 2012, at 12:00 AM EDT (UTC-4).[/area]

The two wagons I have demarcated are probably the worst ones I have ever seen considering who they are on.

Johhog

and

Zachrulez

. Seriously? Considering who is on each of the wagons I am decidedly even more displeased. However, I do have some opinions.

All people on the Johhog wagon need to choose a new wagon. There is zero chance that Johhog will flip scum in my mind. The makeup of his team would not allow for the setup the requires the best scumhunting/manipulative prowess to rest on Johhog. I am sorry if this comes off as rude, Johhog, but you have just come back from a retirement and I think it would be incredibly dangerous for your team to choose you as a scum member in White Flag if your team was given the option.

That brings me to my next point.

All members of Team Mafia, across all games, please state the strength of your team's desire to win on a scale from 1 - 10. Please forward this to your teammates and the other players in the games that I am not able to comment on and then please relay them back to me. This does have a purpose. If you could all do this at earliest convenience, I would appreciate it.

Zach's wagon is equally as bad, if not worse. The people advocating a lynch or a flash lynch should end this needless pressure on Zach. Like Johhog, there is zero chance that Zach is scum given the makeup of his team and the fact that Zach plays a visibly worse scumgame and has expressed dislike of scum publicly.

Bub's vote on Zach is very bad and in fact, Bub is my main suspect from the sparse things that I have read. I'll explain further in another post, but the insistence on Zach scum is stupid along with his interactions with the most common lynch suspects are my main reasons why I suspect Bub.

Other suspects include CES, Socio, and LLmarble.

I don't know how I feel about Amrun, but Haddock seemed pretty certain on her being scum in the team QT.

UNVOTE:
VOTE: Bub Bidderskins

Color tag fixed. (Equinox)

[Captain Falcon]

Equinox, could you fix my color tag fail in my quote of your votecount?

[Johhog]

Could you please tell me who you are?

[Bub Bidderskins]

There are scenarios where team mates flipping scum or town would be meaningful, but I really don't see how Captain Ajax's alignment is supposed to be linked to Captain Falcon's. It's null.

MoI supports a Zach flashwagon.

And this:

Thestatusquo (4) - singersigner, Cogito Ergo Sum, Zachrulez, Llamarble

Make me think that a Llamarble/Zach scum team is impossible.

Really? Impossible? Because MoImarble throws some suspicion his way and they happen to have been on the same wagon at some point?

Well, highly unlikely (nothing's impossible...). But I find it unlikely that scum would vote after a buddy on a wagon. Just my opinion.

Also, lol at Falcon calling my vote on Zach a "wagon".

[singersigner]

My activity will be somewhat low this weekend as I'm visiting my family back home, but I'll still be able to check in on my phone and switch my vote if I have to (though I'd really prefer not to). I'd be ok lynching Shea (obvobv), then CES, then Amrun, though I'd prefer not to lynch either of those two. I'm just not feeling a Johhog lynch, as I feel there'd be just about nothing but a flip to gain from it. Anyone wanting to lynch Zach is just...bad...just bad.

[Matias]

P.S. people should start compromising onto the sheawagon soonish.

Actually I believe he's town at this point. I have no clue why you're so dead set on his lynch when your original arguments are pretty defunct and it seems like you're just grasping straws to keep it alive. However, you're probably simply stubborn.