NY 151: Playground Mafia (Game Over-Mafia Win!)

[Lady Lambdadelta]

I'm pretty sure it's not.

[Psyche]

Hi, guys. 

For a while, I've been having something of an epistemological crisis when it comes to Mafia — I've become completely uncertain of what scum look like, and what it takes to find them. The seeds of this uncertainty came not from unsuccessful soirees as a scumhunting townie, but from my games as scum. It's rather easy for me to play as scum, you see — or at least I think it is. It's much easier to avoid "scum" tells and play like a townie than it is to actually find and lynch scum. 

To investigate the validity of my concerns, I've been trying to develop a (simple and not-time consuming) way to investigate the reliability of what more-experienced-than-me players call scumtells. With the guidance of scientific inquiry, I might finally get a sense of what about scum behavior in games is different from town behavior — how their antitown motives emerge as abberant posting in the thread. 

With that mission in mind, I decided to perform the simple task of searching each thread for key words of controversial accusations and then recording how reliably these accusations are made at scum.

My paradigm investigation, indicated here, is of the flailing scum tell; my results confirm my suspicions that at least one popular "scum"tell might not be a very useful indicator of real scummhood.

I thought this might be a fine way to investigate scumtells, and better than reading each thread for flailing, instead, because not only is a good scumtell a behavior that scum do more often than townies, but it's one that can be reliably detected by townies seeking to lynch scum. 

Spoiler: Method:

- The first eleven of the most recently completed Large Normal Games deemed suitable* for study were selected.

- Using the site's search function, the terms "flail" and "flailing" were each searched in each of the threads.

- Whenever these terms were used to describe a player by another player, it was recorded. Repetitions of description by the same player (ex., Pine says Zepher is flailing in one post, and again later) were ignored. Self-descriptions of flailing were ignored. However, echoed accusations of the same player of flailing (ex. After Pine has said Zepher is flailing, Vite also says Zepher is flailing) were recorded as separate data entries.

- The alliances of the accusors and of the accused were recorded.

* Suitable, as in, there was not so much missing data from the thread by way of missing posts that studying the thread would be inconvenient.

Spoiler: My Data

In NY 138, players were accused of flailing at least 3 times.
1. Empking by Thor665 — TOWN by TOWN
2. Johhog by Hoppster — TOWN by TOWN
3. Oversoul by Bomberman — TOWN by TOWN

In NY 143, players were accused of flailing at least 3 times.
1. Nero Cain by Pine — TOWN by TOWN
2. Mist Beauty by Mastin — TOWN by SCUM
3. Mist Beauty by Tajun — TOWN by TOWN

In NY 142, players were accused of flailing at least 3 times.
1. Revenus by Pine — TOWN by SCUM
2. Pine by Smargaret — SCUM by ???
3. Sorgster by vijay2vasandani — SCUM by ???

In NY 139, players were accused of flailing at least 2 times.
1. Sorgster by Vifam — TOWN by TOWN
2. Uncledaphne by  Stinger Bell — TOWN by SCUM

In NY 141, players were accused of flailing at least 4 times.
1. Xalxe by Sleepy Krew - TOWN by SCUM
2. Hiraki by SleepyKrew - SCUM by SCUM
3. Pine by singer signer - SCUM by TOWN
4. ConSpiracy by singer signer - SCUM by TOWN

In NY 137, players were accused of flailing at least 3 times.
1. Hiplop by GreyICE — TOWN by TOWN
2. Edmund by Pappum's Rat — TOWN by SCUM
3. chkflip by mastin — SCUM by TOWN

In NY 132, players were accused of flailing at least 5 times.
1. Khan by Mastin — SCUM by TOWN
2. Ranmaru by Scott Brosius — TOWN by SCUM
3. Ranmaru by Skyquiem — TOWN by TOWN
4. Ranmaru by inHimshallibe — TOWN by TOWN
5. Khan by Pine — SCUM by TOWN

In NY 136, players were accused of flailing at least 3 times.
1. Meransial by Hresz — TOWN by SCUM
2. David Xanatos by CrashTextDummie — TOWN by SCUM
3. Hydra by Yosarian — SCUM by TOWN

In NY 134, players were accused of flailing at least 2 times.
1. Glowball by Celeblaki — SCUM by TOWN
2. bvoigt by Reck — TOWN by SCUM

In NY 135, players were accused of flailing at least 9 times.
1. Kayneknowsbest by Ethos — TOWN by TOWN 
2. Ethos by Ythan — TOWN by TOWN
3. Ethos by Hiraki — TOWN by TOWN
4. Oversoul by MrZepher — TOWN by SCUM
5. Ethos by Untrod Tripod — TOWN by TOWN
6. Chair by mastin —TOWN by TOWN
7. Ludi by Idher — TOWN by TOWN
8. Ludi by Lady Lamb — TOWN by SCUM
9. Parabollocks by Oversoul — TOWN by TOWN


A total of 37 players in 10 Large Normal Games were accused of flailing. 
9 of those players were Scum; 28 of those players were Town. Therefore, accusations of flailing were levied against Scum 9/37 or about 24% of the time.

In the studied games, a total of 45 players were Scum and 188 players were Town. If players were killed one by one, randomly, in each game, then scum would be lynched 45/188 or about 24% of the time.


One extra game was added to the data in order to test the consistency of the results. 

In NY 131, players were accused of flailing 8 times.
1. Silverbullet by Knight of Cydonia — TOWN by TOWN
2. Mastin by Pine — TOWN by SCUM
3. Toon by Amor — TOWN by SCUM
4. Silverbullet by DarthYoshi — TOWN by TOWN
5. Maxous by mastin — TOWN by TOWN
6. Zepher by Pine — TOWN by SCUM
7. Pine by Vite — SCUM by TOWN
8. Silverbullet by Pine — TOWN by SCUM

Adding this to the data,
A total of 45 players in 11 Large Normal Games were accused of flailing. 
10 of those players were Scum; 35 of those players were Town. Therefore, accusations of flailing were levied against Scum 10/45 or about 22% of the time.

In the studied games, a total of 49 players were Scum out of 205 players. If players were killed one by one, randomly, in each game, then scum would be lynched 49/205 or about 24% of the time.

PRESAGE FACTOR

I would like to here introduce a term for describing the reliability of a tell (Presage Factor). It is defined as the difference between the frequency of accusations of that scumtell on scum, and the theoretical likelihood that a random accusation would land on scum:

Presage Factor = (Frequency of Accusation at Scum) / (Frequency of Accusation) — (Total Number of Scum) / (Total Number of Players)

With this Presage Factor, a scumtell's reliability can be quantified and handily encapsulated into a single number.

For a scumtell to be reliable, its presage factor needs to be significantly above 0. If a tell's presage factor is significantly below 0, then it may be possible that the tell is actually a towntell. If the tell's Presage Factor is very close to 0, then it is useless and active efforts should be made to ensure that the tell is NOT treated seriously in cases for lynches.

My data here shows that the presage factor of "flailing" is near 0, and even probably below 0. It neither indicates scum nor town.

Knowing this, we as a community can now stop treating red herrings like "flailing" seriously and lynch scum more efficiently.

I hope to study more supposed tells like these in the future. Perhaps I may one day even discover a scumtell heretofore unreferred to! My goal is develop my own scientific theory of Mafia once I have enough statistical data organized. I'm still quite an amateur at the game, but I will grow as both a player and a scientist over time. What do you think of what I have so far?

In the future, of course, I'll also need to study the reliability of "tells in concert": what the Presage Factors of whole aggregations of tells — what our cases actually consist of — can be.

Here.

[StrangerCoug]

I was able to get ahold of the thread before he deleted it and reposted it here. As you can see, he doesn't mention this game, but we may still want a mod ruling on whether it's unfairly influencing the game.

[Psyche]

I ahould have posted the thread first before saying anything here. :/

[Junpei]

Can I PM Psyche about the thread? Because I have critical objections to it. Can I say the objections inthread? How does the thread influence the game negatively? How does the thread in any way compromise his alignment?

Stop getting your diapers wet everyone, I'm pretty sure it's fine.

[Psyche]

I mean, the only relation between all this and the study is that I mentioned it ITT.

[Lady Lambdadelta]

Whether or not it's rulebreaking, it's USELESS TO THE GAME.

[Psyche]

Whether or not it's rulebreaking, it's USELESS TO THE GAME.

Okayyyy.

[Lady Lambdadelta]

Whether or not it's rulebreaking, it's USELESS TO THE GAME.

Okayyyy.

No Not "Okayyyy".

Get useful or get dead. Your choice.

[Junpei]

LLD:

Can you tell me why Junpei is scum please?

Why are you ignoring this, LLD? Why are you instead talking about the trivial MD thread Psyche is playing with?

[Psyche]

Whether or not it's rulebreaking, it's USELESS TO THE GAME.

Okayyyy.

No Not "Okayyyy".

Get useful or get dead. Your choice.

It's just too much for me to spend a whole day to read this thread and I really don't expect the costs to exceed the benefits. I'd like to get involved again, and I'm not replacing out, but Ican't see myself taking the proactive role in thisgame that you demand of me.

(Some way to make it easier would be great...)

[Nero Cain]

IIT: Psyche tells us he has a scum roll by not replacing out and wants to active lurk to victory

[Psyche]

86 pages. Can I in good conscience make someone read that?

[Lady Lambdadelta]

LLD:

Can you tell me why Junpei is scum please?

Why are you ignoring this, LLD? Why are you instead talking about the trivial MD thread Psyche is playing with?

If I'm being honest, I missed it.

If I'm being cynical, because I am not answering that question for the UMPTENTH FUCKING TIME.

People want to know why you're scum, it hasn't changes since day 1 or day 2.

My response to DV is what it always will be: Read the fuckig game, read my fucking ISO and stop asking inane questions. I have bigger things to worry about than micro managing everyone who is too stunned to read the fucking game.

If you have a SPECIFIC question about an opinion I have expressed or a point I raised, great. I'll answer.

But I refuse to answer the fucking all encompasing "why is x scum" question anymore.

It's not only frustrating but it's actually ANTI-TOWN TO ANSWER.

[Lady Lambdadelta]

86 pages. Can I in good conscience make someone read that?

There are players who specialize in that sort of thing.

You are hurting this town by staying here and not doing anything.

[Nero Cain]

Also, kdowns, TML, Jun, and FG were on both mislynches.

Cool, so that makes us less likely to be scum huh? After all, scum wouldn't want to be caught on a mislynch, nevermind TWO.

meh, I don't by it. If you think that scum are more likely to avoid a mislynch why are you not pushing on mastin2, HezLucky, DeasVail, Code_X, drmyshottyizsik?

[Junpei]

Wow, you act like GreyICE... hopefully it's a phase.

Tell me the theory behind why mafia want to intentionally put themselves in the spotlight by expressing an unpopular opinion. Also I'm wondering if you think it is easy for one person with minimal influence to change the minds of 20 people or not.

86 pages. Can I in good conscience make someone read that?

There are players who specialize in that sort of thing.

You are hurting this town by staying here and not doing anything.

Wrong. Name 5 players who specialize in that sort of thing that are active and available.

Also, kdowns, TML, Jun, and FG were on both mislynches.

Cool, so that makes us less likely to be scum huh? After all, scum wouldn't want to be caught on a mislynch, nevermind TWO.

meh, I don't by it. If you think that scum are more likely to avoid a mislynch why are you not pushing on mastin2, HezLucky, DeasVail, Code_X, drmyshottyizsik?

I don't buy it either, but you would use that kind of shitty logic which is why I brought it up. I don't buy your argument though so have fun with that.

[Nero Cain]

@LLD-psyche ain't town. If he was town he'd replace out. Now watch him replace out to get his slot some town cred. lol We are deff going to lynch him long before lylo.

[Lady Lambdadelta]

Andrius, Hitogoroshi, Equinox, Myself, Fate, Kuribo etc.

Players who have been known to replace into heavy posting games and catch up in a fair and timely fashion.

So bite me Junpei.

P-edit: that's fair, Nero. I'll read his ISO and see if I can find anythig else to justify that suspicion with. You should do the same.

[Junpei]

see if I can find anythig else to justify that suspicion with.

That is the WORST way to scumhunt. You're going to find suspicious things because you want to. I'll be offering scumhunting lessons for everyone in this game postgame if you're interested... these are pretty rudimentary issues.

Also you ignored my request. Got no reasoning?

[Psyche]

86 pages. Can I in good conscience make someone read that?

There are players who specialize in that sort of thing.

You are hurting this town by staying here and not doing anything.

I'll read the thread. I'll separate the work into sessions, have a perspective on the thread by Monday.

You've made me remember the real reason I'm still here — I don't want to be that loser who flakes.

Sorry. I'll get to it now.

[Psyche]

@LLD-psyche ain't town. If he was town he'd replace out. Now watch him replace out to get his slot some town cred. lol We are deff going to lynch him long before lylo.

You have a rather poor folk psychology.

[Nero Cain]

Also, kdowns, TML, Jun, and FG were on both mislynches.

Cool, so that makes us less likely to be scum huh? After all, scum wouldn't want to be caught on a mislynch, nevermind TWO.

meh, I don't by it. If you think that scum are more likely to avoid a mislynch why are you not pushing on mastin2, HezLucky, DeasVail, Code_X, drmyshottyizsik?

I don't buy it either, but you would use that kind of shitty logic which is why I brought it up. I don't buy your argument though so have fun with that.

You just said "After all, scum wouldn't want to be caught on a mislynch, nevermind TWO." ergo Jun believes scum attempt to avoid mislynches. Just die already scum.


lol @ Jun offering scumhunting lessons. I've been in a game with you twice, you're reads are terrible.

[Lady Lambdadelta]

Junpei, do you really think that Mafia don't push unpopular positions to make themselves loom mote town just based on that logic?

It's called predictive play. Mafia will do things to make themselves look town.

Also, I have more names for you: Magua, MoI, Tierce, Llmarble

Etc.

[Lady Lambdadelta]

86 pages. Can I in good conscience make someone read that?

There are players who specialize in that sort of thing.

You are hurting this town by staying here and not doing anything.

I'll read the thread. I'll separate the work into sessions, have a perspective on the thread by Monday.

You've made me remember the real reason I'm still here — I don't want to be that loser who flakes.

Sorry. I'll get to it now.

Glad To hear it.

And... I'm sorry I was hard on you. I'm just a little frustrated with The apathy of this game. I hope you come back to this game and light the world on fire.

Just don't get discouraged, Kay~? ^_^