TM2012: Scummies 2011.5 - Let the credits roll!

[Zar]

Actually,

Zar:

Please explain how you came to have your scumread on KK.

Withdrew my townish read on him based on #149 in #223.

Looking into players off the Ajax wagon (#408), then looking into players which were ignored by Ajax (#480).

Have still to ISO him and go over his posts.

[Lost Butterfly]

Day 2, Votecount 6

Magua (2) - DeasVail, xRECKONERx

Not voting

(9): MagnaofIllusion, BBmolla, Magua, Quilford, T-Bone, theamatuer, hitogoroshi, Zar, Kublai Khan

With 11 alive, it takes 6 to lynch or no-lynch.

Deadline:

June 3rd at 4:01pm (EDT)

Countdown to deadline

: (expired on 2012-06-03 16:01:00)

Countdown to the end of First Half Judging

: (expired on 2012-05-24 16:01:00)

[hitogoroshi]

proddodge. technically it's not for 12 hours but in eight hours I have this exam I am not fucking ready for and I can't make myself study for it so probably I will do terrible and just sulk/sleep when it's done, don't want the obligation to rush to computer at high noon to post

shit coming whenever it comes

[Magua]

Um, whut? You had the third most number of posts in that game. Hardly an example of your ‘lurking’. And given your self-meta of “I hate bussing” the fact that you did everything in your power to avoid voting for him until it was pretty much sealed doesn’t help your case for not being Ajax’s partner IMO.

You should re-read my posts from Open 320. The amount of posts I was able to make that had absolutely nothing to do with that game is actually quite impressive.

@Magua - what has happened to your Hito suspicion from yesterday? You were pretty vocal about his judging block reasoning being bad. Also you never addressed my concerns that no-one else in your group seemed to have them.

Primarily, I don't believe that hito bussed Ajax like that D1. Again, this is reflected in my 315.

If you mentioned being concerned about no one else in the group being concerned, I missed that in your wall. I still don't agree with the choice that was made in group 1B, but at least half the people who made it have to be town, so, bleah. I don't agree with the strategy of trying to minimize losses rather than maximize gains, but I'm no longer willing to lynch hito over it.

So where I'm at now is:

I think it's very likely that Magua is scum. If that is the case, I'd say I think Reck is the last scum, just because I have townreads on everyone else.

So. Assume that I'm town. Does that make Reckoner town, in your view? If that's the case, who's scum?

----------------------------

My townread on theamatuer is increasing.

Still think DeasVail is town.

Still think Reckoner is town, but would really love it if he started giving a shit about the game. (Still thinking that scum-Reckoner would already be giving more of a shit about the game, more involved in either defending Ajax or bussing him.) Really, really wish he'd post more reads.

[Zar]

@Zar / TheAm

- please weigh in on this without giving any direct details. Did you find hito's logic in the Day 1 judging QT to be suspect?

Not at all. I found hito's level of involvement in weighing out the scenarios to be quite pro-town, especially given the choices we had to decide upon.

[Zar]

@Zar

– so first let me ask …. Why is your partner list made completely of Ajax to Other interactions from Post 480 and not based on interactions in both directions?

Re-read into the Ajax side first to start looking into the people he either avoided or buddied.

This is a complete non-answer. It doesn’t matter that Ajax was under fire by others. You specifically did not comment on ANYTHING about him until he had been put at L-1 and made his obvious fake-claim. No comment at all about the cases made by Quilford and I. Your complete lack of interaction in both directions fits the behavior of scum-buddies who don’t want to leave links to each other when 1 buddy is under fire (as Ajax was all day long).

Didn't think it was worth my time until the claim. I was wrong.

[theamatuer]

@MoI. Nothing suspicious whatsoever

[Quilford]

xRECKONERx - Town, but his lack of activity is offputting. I guess he does have RL shit to deal with.

MagnaofIllusion - Super town and has been for ever and always.

BBmolla - Leaning town. Not as strong as the others, but I do have a good gut feeling about him. He's 'not feeling a KK lynch today', which given their interactions I think makes him pretty town.

Kublai Khan - Meh with a slice of town. Whenever I picture lynching him, I have visions of modposts with dark green in them and a yawning disappointment in my chest. Not touching him today.

Magua - Meh with a slice of scum. All his townie posts are surrounded by a bunch of scummy posts. I want to lynch him.

T-Bone - Leaning town. Reminds me of BBmolla. Pondering whether his late Scummy-recipient-vote is a scumtell or not.

theamatuer - Town. He was Ajax's counterwagon. And his posts today are newb-town.

DeasVail - Meh with a slice of town. I liked him yesterday, but he's made a few scummy posts today that are making me reconsider.

Zar - Leaning scum. I don't like his read posts or the reasoning behind him. I'm probably also being biased by whoever said that he enjoys playing scum a lot. I think his team would've been fine with giving him a Scum Role PM.

hitogoroshi - Leaning town. Reminds me of MoI. Was right about Fonz; will probably be right about Magua.

[Quilford]

All my reads feel weak compared to the certainty of Ajax scum, but I can feel my case-posting side rebuilding and it is telling me that Zar would be a good target.

[DeasVail]

Reck:

Well, Magua-town --> Reck-town was because of you voting Gaoth at the time you did. Magua-scum --> Reck-scum was because I have townreads on everyone else, your vote on Gaoth makes a fair bit of sense if you're scum with Magua and other little things make the idea of you being scum together appeal to me. That and I'm a bit more sure of Magua being scum than I was.

Also, your attempt to discredit my opinion is quite unnecessary. There's a reason I was so shocked when Quilford voted hito with me at the start of this game.

Magua:

I will have a decent townread on Reck if you flip town, yes. Zar is my weakest townread, so I guess I'd look at him. I'm not quite sure who else though. Why did you want to know?

MoI:

Slandaar wanted me to ask, why do you think the counterwagon on theam makes him town, but that the Gaoth counterwagon does not make

his

slot more likely town?

[MagnaofIllusion]

Why do you expect me to have a townread on Reck when the reason you do is your QT?

I don’t expect you to have a Townread on things posted in my Team QT. I expect you to have a Townread on Reck for his posting in thread. Those posts are the things that led to our QT discussion. If you don’t then we can sort out that issue down the line if necessary. I really don’t see the point (much like why I didn’t see the point of going on and on about TheAm) given that Reck is not going to be lynched today.

Where did you get 5th choice from? I would have liked to be scum here, but I didn't have the choice to be scum and I'm not sure whether I would have taken scum if I did.

I got it from here …

Well fuck I have no idea where I got it from. In my memory someone else made mention of that fact and it reminded me to ask you about it given that I know you prefer scum.

But looking back I can’t find it. Perhaps I’m losing my mind …

Consider it not asked.

MoI: Slandaar wanted me to ask, why do you think the counterwagon on theam makes him town, but that the Gaoth counterwagon does not make his slot more likely town?

Let’s examine the course of events with Ajax / Gaoth / Magua and their wagons.

Gaoth’s first post comes when Ajax has picked up an early 3 vote wagon and is the leading vote-getter. Hito is in second place with 2. He immediately chooses to post the following regarding Ajax –

My one question so far is the scum read on Ajax. Seems premature. Are some of these still RVS that haven't moved?

Ajax is only at 3 votes. He’s hardly gotten an RVS wagon the likes of which we tend to see on this site. And given he’s posting on Page 3 it is entirely likely that he does have some RVS votes. But why is he worried about it?

Now fast forward to page 6. Ajax’s wagon sits at 4, Gaoth has gotten 3 votes (Zar, T-Bone, BBMolla). Ajax is on a Quilford wagon of 2 (and TheAm also has 2 votes).

Ajax says the ” This Gaoth lurker-wagon is far too easy.” . First off the ‘too easy’ part doesn’t make much sense given Gaoth barely has a wagon to being with. Secondly what motivation does scum Ajax have for staying away from the most viable counterwagon to himself. I can think of two reasons.

1. He doesn’t want to vote for his partner.
2. He was trying a ‘Town Cred” by not jumpin on a lurker wagon to show he’s not ‘despereate’.

Next at Post 148 Ajax says this about the slot –

Sadly, I don't think this wagon will pressure him to do much of anything. This looks like the classic flake-out. Perhaps I'm wrong, and the mod prod will get Gaoth back into the game. But more likely, he'll be replaced, and we'll be back to square one.

It's the age-old question: should lurkers be bandwagoned, or not? I think it's pretty pointless, personally.

Why does someone flaking mean that we have to go back to square one? That looks like he’s paving the way to say “Oh, that person replaced in so we have to give them every benefit of the doubt”

Scum generally don’t look for excuses to not to be able to push on Town players. Again, the outside possibility exists he was looking for ‘Town Cred’ as Gaoth had just picked up a 4th vote from Reck. But if that is the case I would expect at least one of his partners to be really trying to move the wagon on Gaoth forward. But in fact the opposite happens. BBMolla jumps ship from Gaoth to vote Ajax by page 8 making the wagons a 5-3 split. Additionally this is one of the strong reasons BB is very unlikely scum.

He unvoted Gaoth at Post 155. He specifically says he’s reserving his vote for Ajax but asks the Mod questions about lynch thresholds being unclear. And in the same post he also states that KK would be a great vote.

So if Gaoth and Ajax are partners why would hypo-partner BB hop from one to the other when BB specifically says hypo-Town KK is a great vote? No reason.

And if Gaoth and Ajax are not partners he has little reason as an Ajax Partner to leave the best counterwagon at the time to vote for his partner given the format of Team Mafia where bussing by scum is discouraged.

He further explicitly says that Gaoth’s inactivity is a Null tell in the same post while voting TheAm for lack of activity in the same post. The dichotomy is telling given that he already said in 148 that he didn’t personally believe lurkers should not be bandwagonned.

Lastly we have Magua’s initial reads Post 243 where he calls Ajax Town.

I think that the dueling behavior by the slots (both calling each other Town / defending the other / trying to reduce their wagons) is more likely to come from partners in this game. Yes, it is possible that the Gaoth / Magua slot as Town just honestly made a poor choice of words in initial post, flaked, and Magua bit big-time on the WhiteKnighting Ajax did when he replaced in. But at a gut level I would put those odds at 80-20 in favor of partnership.

--

You should re-read my posts from Open 320. The amount of posts I was able to make that had absolutely nothing to do with that game is actually quite impressive.

Well now I’m going to be a dick and say that you were Active Lurking via posting non-relevent content and not ‘lurking’. I specifically differentiate those. If you don’t then great we have ‘Semantics Wacky Shenanigans’!

Again … the fact that you didn’t bus there as scum is meaningful to the “Ajax and Gaoth / Magua” discussion at hand.

If you mentioned being concerned about no one else in the group being concerned, I missed that in your wall. I still don't agree with the choice that was made in group 1B, but at least half the people who made it have to be town, so, bleah. I don't agree with the strategy of trying to minimize losses rather than maximize gains, but I'm no longer willing to lynch hito over it.

Yes, I am. Here’s your discussion of why hito was scum when you replaced in.

My strongest scumread is hitogoroshi. Half of this is expected meta, and at least part of it is me drawing parallels to the play I saw in Metamafia[1] -- specifically, hito (who is, like me, a strong mechanics player) lobs it open with a question ("Should judges be secret?"), pokes at it a bit, but never goes deeper and never takes anything from it. It strikes me as more of a bone thrown to his own meta than actual thought.

Secondary example: hito thinks that the groups are divided 5, 5, 3 in #150, which would mean that the scum have perfect knowledge of who is in what group

(they're in at least two, so would know who's in the third by omission if nothing else).

But doesn't even raise his original point again or bring it back up. It's reactive, not proactive.

I’ll summarize this as the following –

1. Meta for Hito matching MetaMafia.
2. Hito thinking groups are in 5-5-3 means his early suggestion was not valid.

The first point I find bad as Hito had posted far more than simple mechanics during the game before you replaced in. Just looking at ISOs side by side and you can easily tell that Hito’s Post 47, Post 75, Post 113, and Post 138 at a glance show he’s delving into others to get reads and making pronouncements about alignments based on the thread itself. Hito was hardly ONLY posting regarding mechanics.

The second point is weak as if it is true that one group was “UnScummed” then scum would at best have to wait to see what Awards that group was giving out even with Daytalk. If scum on the off chance don’t have Daytalk (I think they do, but that’s not relevant to the point) and a group with a single scum member has that member lynched then scum are going to be very much in the dark about the make-up of both groups. Sure, they will know the totality of those players in the groups but will not have clear picture to help them with Nightkills.

No harm in keeping things secret as Town doesn’t benefit in knowing the groups the same Day. So keeping things under wrap during the Day can’t hurt and has a small chance of helping.

Did those reasons (which I disagree with) disappear also? Because simply ‘taking it all back’ at Post 315 after Ajax was a walking dead man isn’t something that makes much sense from an honest scum-hunting position.

[Quilford]

VOTE: Magua

[Quilford]

This vote feels like a new pair of shoes.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Well after looking at the Gaoth & Magua / Ajax wagon and interactions I’m pretty comfortable that Magua stands a good shot at being scum. And two scum lynches in a row puts this game on PoE to Victory mode.

@Magua

– Don’t bother waiting to claim anything important you think you have to claim as a matter of formality. I will hammer you when you are at L-1. Probably best to put anything you have to say out on the table for discussion purposes.

So if Magua does happen to flip Town I want KK dead by at worst Nightfall 3. Do NOT forget this fact if I die. Listen to dead Townies for once.

Group 2A

is

not yet

officially done for the record. I’ll let you know the second we are.

[MagnaofIllusion]

I see that KK has said Group 2C is complete.

@TheAm

- what is the status of group 2B?

[theamatuer]

Not done yet. Chose a category, but still wants time to talk about targets and stuff

[MagnaofIllusion]

I have something I want to check.

What is it you wanted to check? Please be specific.

[MagnaofIllusion]

@Zar

- curious why you stopped your PBPA reads with TheAm and didn't do KK despite saying that was the way you read players and never returned to it?

I'd like you to actually do that and post your actual thoughts on KK before today ends.

[T-Bone]

Good God, I have walked into the MoI show....hosted by MoI lol

@Magua - Why do you heavily rely on meta to both condemn other players and defend yourself? Are you suggesting with these arguments that players (including yourself) are incapable of changing their play style? Personally I'd like to think I change my playstyle from game to game. I refer to posts 460, 462, 464, 465, 503, etc. etc. Quite a bit talk of meta.

@KK - I definitely don't like KK claiming he 'town-telled' in 468. You can't intentionally town-tell. Just because I (and maybe someone else) called it a town-tell doesn't make it so. That is really scummy to me. I can understand you taking time to defend yourself in that post. But where's the follow up? Next post is asking Theam to replace out. And then more defending yourself. I get it, but where is the motion to scumhunting? From your posts I cannot honestly tell who you find scummy. Do you find MoI scummy with all your back and forth? I'm confused by your Magua vote, as you haven't talked about him at all.

I still like Zar as town. I like Deas as town more for his last few posts. Reck, BBmolla and Hito don't seem overtly scummy to me. MoI I can't read, but based on the way Ajax went down, I can't imagine him as a scumbuddy. Samething with Quilford. Theamatuer is town by process of elimination. Right now I can't see anyone else but KK and Magua as being scum. Not so much because they have been as out there as Ajax was, but because everyone else looks more townie to me, and there's just a couple of things that both Magua and KK have done that have been scummy. Right now I'm leaning more KK ever so slightly, for his hardcore defending of himself and then not doing anything else. I'm with Quil though, I don't feel as strongly as I did about Ajax and Theam on Day 1.

[Zar]

KK was very much a non-entity to Ajax, they never had any interaction in thread.

#133: Focuses on quilford's vote on Capt. Ajax. Choice of words are dismissive of the reason, shed light onto theam.

#149:
- some things:

Response to 111: Denotes little interest in expanding the scumhunt.
Response to 135: It's not really a defense, more of like a justification and a smear. Misses the point of the post. Lack of scumhunt, not frequency of posting.

#153: Is the big typical post evil-aligned players tend to do. In order to make sure they've given an opinion on everybody.

A Few wishy washy reads:

- The Molla read is non-accusatory.
- The Ajax read is a very wishy washy stance, typical for partners who do not want to hop into their buddies wagon yet. Room to move around.
- Gaoth warrants a null read for his single post. fair enough.
- Wishy washy stance on hito.
- Scum Vibe from Low Poster #2, but Null from Low Poster #1.
- Wishy washy read on Fonz.
- Non accusattory read of theam
- claims Reck scum-slipped (but never voted him, and never followed through)
- Calls my Gaoth vote opportunistic.


Please note that KK never threw in another vote other than his RVS vote on D1. Yet, he never posted a scum-read on theamatuer. All he said was he was scummy and he hadn't seen anything "pro-town". Of course, quilford and Reck were scum according to his reads, but his vote was kept on theam instead.


#170's "I want xRECKONERx's reply first" feels like an attempt to buy time to contribute.

[Zar]

Gaoth / Ajax
Going over the Gaoth / Ajax interaction first, then looking into Magua.

Wow, three pages before I even know the game is up. Terrific.

Reads so far as pretty much all set-up/mechanics speculation, and I thank you all for doing all that heavy lifting for me.

My one question so far is the scum read on Ajax. Seems premature. Are some of these still RVS that haven't moved?

And Fonz, which argument of DV's are you referring to?

Once again, Gaoth's only contribution to this game was dismissing Ajax's wagon as premature.


Ajax was interested in focusing on players within the Gaoth wagon:

This Gaoth lurker-wagon is far too easy.

Zar, do you still think Gaoth is the scummiest, based on that single post?

Gaoth had four votes at this stage:

Sadly, I don't think this wagon will pressure him to do much of anything. This looks like the classic flake-out. Perhaps I'm wrong, and the mod prod will get Gaoth back into the game. But more likely, he'll be replaced, and we'll be back to square one.

It's the age-old question: should lurkers be bandwagoned, or not? I think it's pretty pointless, personally.

Would scum coach a buddy to replace? Is that acceptable/valid strategy often used here? /discuss.

Let me turn to one of the Gaoth-voters:

Do you agree with the Gaoth votes, then?

Yep.

UNVOTE:
VOTE: Gaoth

If one of DV/Quil is scum, I'd have to say it's DV atm.

Just for clarification: is this because of anything scummy about DV, or is it just because you think Quilford is townish?

Still more interest in the steam on the Gaoth Wagon.

There seems to be an "uncanny valley" when it comes to amount of content posted.

At an average level, it's a null tell. At Gaoth's level (nonexistent), it's a null tell.

At theamatuer's level (minimal), it's suspicious. Looks like he's avoiding getting too deep into the game.

Unvote

Vote: theamatuer

theamatuer, what's your read right now on Zar? What about hito?

Yet another soft-defense of Gaoth over other players. The interest of pursuing away from this wagon is evident.

[quote="In [url=http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 0#p4038210]

On the other hand, someone vanishing at this early stage is a null tell, IMO. There are so many reasons that can happen, from "My relative died, I'm in no mood to play mafia now" to "I'm swamped with work, and I don't even have time to tell the group I'm swamped with work" to "this game is boring, forget it, I'm gone" to "I'm scum, and I'm afraid that I'll mess things up if I post." There's no way to tell the difference, other than waiting for the person to come back or be replaced, and then start interrogating him.

Until the lurker comes back, I think a lurkerwagon is pointless. It's a waste of time. Whether people on such a wagon tend to be town or scum... I DON'T KNOW.

3. Gaoth's not around right now to respond to people. theamatuer is. Once Gaoth comes in or is replaced, we can go after him if we want. For now, focusing on Gaoth is frustratingly useless.

These statements make sense for a scumteam which has two members as competing wagons. Ajax/Gaoth team is very likely.

[xRECKONERx]

Zar is now town. Would still lynch KK. Magua is preferred.

[DeasVail]

V/LA for ~48 hours. Long day at uni tomorrow followed by no internet access.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Group 2A has now completed it's judging process.

Still waiting for TheAm to confirm 2B is complete.

[theamatuer]

We're done