NY 151: Playground Mafia (Game Over-Mafia Win!)

[PeregrineV]

Mod, replace me, I'm not really sorry, I have another game I'm in, and two more which I expect to be in a month from now. I have a life and your game is boring so I'm cutting time where I can.

Beginning the search. If possible, please continue playing until a replacement is found.

[Lady Lambdadelta]

@Junpei: asdfjkln;as;dlkfjas;ldkfja;slkfjsal;dkfj1asdfjl;kjla;sdfk;l

Also, Junpei replacing out might make him a bad sport, but not a scum. Since when did replacing out become a scum tell?

He was scum LONG LONG before he replaced out.

Replacing out doesn't make you scum. But using the replacement mechanic to escape a lynch looks bad.

[redFF]

Sorry forgot about this will get to it when i have time.

[mastin2]

I can't believe that worked.

In the immortal words of MeMe, post or perish.

I didn't think you were THAT stupid.

Arg. I have six slots, but it's like I need seven or eight to contain all the scum.

Psyche had been under attack by Khan, and ended up dead. Psyche was also among Antihero's suspects. Furthermore, Psyche really hasn't done much of anything for pretty much the entire game. Remembering Psyche's contributions over the whole game (will need to double-check when I have ISO capabilities), I don't really remember anything resembling true content.

Firestarter was under attack by Antihero, who ended up dead. Firestarter's posts had content, yes, but they were mainly active lurking.
Furthermore, I caught OGML lurking yesterday. He was browsing the forum for a good few minutes, then disappeared. I waited, thinking he was making a post, but got...nothing. I'll be QUITE interested in OGML's response to my question, since he could become confscum from it. But I have my doubts. He knows the strategy of which I speak. I was using it even three years ago, when he saw me playing as Mastin. And even if he doesn't, he knows of the strategy in general. He's far too competent a player to fall into that trap, as evident by his play--what he says seems to make quite a bit of sense, but he's an experienced, logical, veteran player: which means the best way to read him is to look at his actions over the course of the game and see if they further a scum or town agenda. It's a little hard to do without a Junpei flip, but my current thought is that his actions ARE with a scum mindset, and that he's not pursuing the town's interests, but it warrants checking.

(EDIT: As it turns out, he actually did respond in the extremely stupid way I thought he wouldn't. Now if he had been writing some awesome post--not necessarily a wall, but a strong post which obviously required the reading which I saw him doing--then it'd also have been excused. But he had nothing. His post was just a weak response to mine, nothing more, nothing suggesting he was doing the level of reading required for me to have seen him long enough to think he was lurking. Which means he was in fact lurking, as he gave no content despite having been here reading.)

Macros was playing exactly as I'd expect a scum player to have been playing. Not only that, but when kdowns came to replace him, he started lurking hardcore. Seriously, HARD. CORE. LURKING. And when he DID come, his content? Was active-lurking. It was junk. He's been posting filler. He's given absolutely nothing to this game. This is in complete contrast with what I know of his townplay, where he proved to be active and actually somewhat logical with his game--he was still a weak player overall and nearly got lynched, but it was not through lack of trying.
As a final nail in the coffin, Khan showed minor suspicion of that slot.

FakeGod has done nothing this whole time. Basically, FG is playing pretty much like kdowns is, only FG posts slightly more often. FG lurks, not posting nearly as often as he should, and more than that, FG's posts are pretty much junk. FG is being intentionally cryptic with what little content FG does produce, as if trying to minimize actual contribution to the game.
But it gets worse for FG, as Antihero expressed serious suspicion of FG.

As for DesaVail, my number one suspect and my current vote? For starters, DV was the #1 suspect of the dying townies, with both rack and Seacore wishing they could take DV to the grave. But putting aside the lynched (because, surely, they're bad players for having gotten lynched and therefore their reads should be ignored, right?* ), let's look at the nightkilled: while Antihero had DV as town-looking compared to others, he correctly pointed out DV's white-knighting.

But let's go beyond that and go into DV's posting history. While DV did start out fairly strong, DV's posts have been getting progressively worse with time. He's shown cognitive dissonance and extreme opportunism, joining both the rack and the Pine/Seacore wagons. He was also a member of my wagon when it looked like I was a viable lynch, and also pursued kdowns (again, when a wagon on him looked viable). In other words, DV joined pretty much every single major wagon except for Junpei's. And even then, I'm fairly certain DV has expressed interest in wagoning many people which DV didn't end up voting. DV's been giving progressively less and less content, asking fewer questions, and basically has gone from actively contributing to just passively checking in, making statements about people he's willing to lynch, and leaving it at that, having ceased trying to get more info.

(*If you couldn't tell by the obvious sarcasm, the answer is No. No, they should NEVER be ignored.)


As for Junpei...well, he's gone from my strongest scumread to my weakest scumread due to the conflict. As you can tell by the above reads, they're pretty strong. Junpei...isn't. I *might* be willing to lynch him, just to remove the doubt, and because if he WERE scum, there are definitely good connections (e.g. DV and kdowns) and because he will always, ALWAYS be on the town's radar and will never be safe from being lynched, potentially being a distraction and lylo-mislynch-bait...

...But I really, REALLY do not like the idea of lynching someone who has a large shot at being town. Granted, yes, there's a lot against him--he was Khan's strongest suspect; Khan died. He was one of the strongest suspects of BOTH masons; the masons died. He was among rack's suspects as well. Plus, add in his extremely scummy posting, and all-in-all, he looks like caught scum, especially considering he has ties to other extremely scummy players such as DV and kdowns.

...But there's ALSO a lot in his favor. For instance, Seacore more-or-less (this is from memory, so I'll need to double-check the wording to confirm) said that the PineVJunpei lynch debate seemed like scum didn't really care which side they picked, because they knew both were town. A vibe I kinda share, with how things went down. Furthermore, I can maybe see his play as town, and I know that I suck at reading him, so it's very possible that all my hatred against him is exactly what the scum want me to be doing, to get him (town) lynched. Plus (while we know he was wrong about Seacore being scum, which was his main reason for this) Khan technically died thinking Junpei was town, anyway. And the masons very well might have been killed for, y'know, being masons, rather than for their reads.

All-in-all, I don't like the prospect of lynching him. Not without doing a HECK of a lot more research.


There are other suspects as well.
For shotty, there's the fact that Antihero died thinking shotty was scum, giving quite convincing reasoning as to why. Furthermore, when doing an ISO of shotty, I saw nothing but scum-motivated moves. The only thing keeping shotty from being lynched is that shotty's a low-key, low-activity player, who has gotten away with both lurking AND active lurking, but has been ignored in favor of higher-activity players such as Junpei.

For TML, I like Antihero's reasons, and I like Nero's reasons, and this seems to fit with TML's scumplay overall in the game we were scum together. His actions seem like they overall further a scum mindset more than they do a town mindset, but it's a weak read.


Other figures of interest (but not on my needs-to-die list) are Nero, scooby, Maxous, and SC.

On the one hand, Nero's play has been at a lot of times incredibly anti-town. Khan also had some serious suspicion on him. Rack had a small jab at him as well. On the other hand, the masons thought he was town. His play at other times has been quite strong, and his insistence on going after certain targets (LLD, for instance) gives off a stubborn town-vibe rather than a scum-vibe. Plus, the fact that many people I've shown suspicion of have approved of the Nero lynch gives me extreme hesitance to think of him being scum, but nonetheless, he's someone I've got my eye on.

Scooby's given pretty much nothing the whole game--this itself would warrant attention, but it's apparently just the way scooby plays. There's not really much to see, and what you do see doesn't look very pretty. Overall, you can definitely see scum motive in his posts, but I can also see him as just being minimalistic town contributing things as he sees them. Plus, given the amount of suspicion I've seen casually thrown his way (keeping him in the lynch pile, but near the bottom--basically, saving him for a lylo mislynch) makes me heavily lean town.

For SC, on the one hand, GI was playing pretty town overall. Plus, the whole language debate and GI replacing out in the manner he did gives off some extremely strong townvibes. SC's posting has also been overall pretty dang strong, with a lot of logic in it and many good suspects. On the other hand, GI always plays strong, replacing out coulda been done as scum, and SC's posts have contained things which could come from a scum mindset. (SC--like OGML--is someone who is best read by their overall play.) His play could easily come across as scum playing the long-game. But I'm not sure about that, and his posts (while sometimes giving me bad vibes and seeming a little artificial at times) overall seem to be genuine, so I'm willing to keep my faith in his slot.

Maxous is on the list, for the same reason that Antihero described him: he could be surprise-scum. That was true on day one, and it's true to this very moment. There's simply no better words for it. His play looks fairly good, in that he seems to be contributing relatively actively, and his reads seem overall to be legitimate. His interactions with others do not scream scum, and in fact with the way he plays, they seem pretty town overall. But I feel like Maxous is capable of giving more to the game than he actually is. I feel as if Maxous is not being completely open with us, that he's not giving us his full attention. Like his reads are half-hearted and not fully fleshed out, kinda sorta giving a coasting kind of vibe. Again, that's the sort of play that you'd expect to see from scum playing the long-game--staying middle-of-the-road, devoting JUST enough to stay off people's radar, but not enough to make people question why Maxous still lives.
Which, again, means that overall he's a townread, but again, could still be surprise-scum.


In short,
STRONGLY SCUM:
DeasVail
Psyche

OGML

PROBABLY SCUM:

Firestarter/OGML

kdowns
FakeGod

COULD BE SCUM:
Junpei
Shotty
TML

*MIGHT* BE SCUM: (But probably aren't)
Nero Cain
scooby
Maxous
StrangerCoug


Fair note, I didn't finish the crossreference with the VCA, and even then, that's not the final step; there's still ISOs I need to do, along with looking with more detail at the events which the VCA describes. But these are my current thoughts as they stand.

[OhGodMyLife]

OK, no. Reading the thread does not equal lurking. You should realize by now it takes at least 15 minutes to wade through all the bullshit you post. Now are you going to answer my questions? Because despite all the words you just posted I didn't see you actually respond to me. You just went OMG CAUGHT HIM LURKING I'M SO PRO YOU DUMB. Like asking someone's opinion on lurking is some epic trap.

[mastin2]

Everything's a trap when talking to me. I never say something without meaning these days, even when it looks like I am. The reason you didn't see me respond was that I hadn't read. That post (other than the parts edited with the update thanks to your response) was typed up this morning while I still had no access to here, but it was based off of things I remembered for the whole of the game. I hadn't read the rest of 85, yet alone, 86-88. (I have by now, of course.)

As for your question, it's in my iso.

There won't be a tomorrow, LLD; the bastards just lynched rack by my count.

Now KK's response was scumtastic, and so was this sudden rush of votes. It's possible that it's a single scumteam, but I was actually rushing home since I realized while driving "crud, this is probably multiscum". I'll see what I can do before the day ends.

First off, why I suddenly think this game is multiscum.
-24-player games with a single scumteam are incredibly rare. The last time I remember being in one, in fact, was Mortal Kombat, which was meant to LOOK like two scumteams. So, number of players in the game.
-Related, ideal balance suggests a single scumteam would be six players. However, when was the last time you saw a six-man scumteam? I quite frankly don't think I've seen one in a long time. And even then, probably a theme. (Again, might be Mortal Kombat. Or maybe Stars Aligned. Games that old.) Six scum is almost universally the realm of multiscum.
-The even number of players suggests a certain kind of symmetry to be present. 24 works out better than 25 or 23 for two scumteams.
-The town seems to be quick to bandwagon, as shown by the rack lynch when we have nearly two weeks 'til deadline. rack's not the only wagon to have gotten a lot of support, either.
-The way everyone seems to be behaving seems...different...to me. Like it's somehow off. That things aren't the way they should be if this game were single-faction.
-Related, my inability to scumhunt effectively. That itself might not seem much to you, but as Khan said, most of my scumhunting works by interactions: and if the scum are legitimately scumhunting, it makes it incredibly difficult for me to catch them, basically making any time I DO catch one a lucky shot in the dark.

It's not enough to have me firmly convinced, but it's enough that the possibility came to mind, and it does change how I go about the game. I'll double-check things after posting this, though.

Dual masons kinda supports my two-scumteam idea. Especially since both kills
-Were on town,
-Were meant to look kinda town in nature,
And
-No kill went through on a stronger town player.

Drmy, do you have access to the QT Antihero and vijay had?
If so, can you try paraphrasing their conversation, since with both dead, it'd be kinda hard for either of them to do so for us?

Anyway...

VOTE: Kublai Khan.

There are more reasons posted since then, but these were the reasons which got me thinking multiscum in the first place.

[OhGodMyLife]

So basically you're playing a game of outguess the mod. Dangerous territory. If there is a six man scumteam, you're making it easy to keep the town from getting its guard up as we approach lylo. Which, btw, with 18 players alive and two deaths per night we'd be only two mislynches away from.

[Lady Lambdadelta]

Mastin, you and I are going to have a little talk about your two man scum team theory.

But first, a question: I need you to claim, right now.

[maxwell]

Just picked up my PM now. I need to do a full readthrough of the thread which will probably take at least a day, I don't like making summary posts but I will post a list of reads once I'm fully caught up.

[mastin2]

Mastin, you and I are going to have a little talk about your two man scum team theory.

Three man. 3 each, total six.

And it should be quite obvious by now that I'm just a VT. I am not very subtle about these kinds of things.

[Lady Lambdadelta]

Mastin, you and I are going to have a little talk about your two man scum team theory.

Three man. 3 each, total six.

And it should be quite obvious by now that I'm just a VT. I am not very subtle about these kinds of things.

Yeah, that's the issue.

You're telling me you DIDN'T kill KK last night?

[mastin2]

If I had a shot, it woulda been on Junpei. Like I said, while I was beginning to doubt Junpei as scum in favor of Khan, I still thought Junpei was scum and that Khan wasn't. And beyond that, if I was right and one of them were scum and the other were town, and I wanted to shoot off of that belief, I'd take out Junpei because Junpei-as-town would not be as competent as Khan-as-town would be. And if Junpei flipped town, Khan lynch. If Junpei flipped scum, got a competent Khan still alive.
If Khan flipped town, Junpei lynch. If Khan flipped scum, got Junpei (who isn't as competent yet believes he is) alive instead.

[Lady Lambdadelta]

If I had a shot, it woulda been on Junpei. Like I said, while I was beginning to doubt Junpei as scum in favor of Khan, I still thought Junpei was scum and that Khan wasn't. And beyond that, if I was right and one of them were scum and the other were town, and I wanted to shoot off of that belief, I'd take out Junpei because Junpei-as-town would not be as competent as Khan-as-town would be. And if Junpei flipped town, Khan lynch. If Junpei flipped scum, got a competent Khan still alive.
If Khan flipped town, Junpei lynch. If Khan flipped scum, got Junpei (who isn't as competent yet believes he is) alive instead.

Right, so now we talk.

What part of 2 teams of 3 in a 24 player game with 2 masons and a UNIVERSAL BACKUP flipped, seems correct to you?

Factor in the chance of cross kills, competition with the other scum team, town power etc.

to have all 3 members of your scum team survive to a point where there are only 6 players left seems RIDICULOUS.

In other words, to have all 3 scum members successfully kill off 18 other players including another 3 member scum team with a factional kill? How likely is this, in your mind?

Hell, let's assume we can have 1 mistake. 2 scum members survive and endgame the remaining town.

You lose only 1 scum member to the 19 other players in the game? With scum competition and inevitable town power?

Not a chance, Mastin.

I'm confident we're looking at 1 scum team + a SK or 1 scum team + a vig.

Thoughts?

[mastin2]

We've been over the math before. Like I said. The largest factor in it?

Experience.

You can do the math all you like.
You can throw numbers at me all the time, and warp them to support any opinion possible. (I did the math somewhere and came to the opposite conclusion, that it is perfectly balanced.)

But I've been here.
I have more games in New York than in any other forum.

I've lived larges--particularly normal larges--for the majority of my career.

And again, the norm is 3-man teams. It's been over a year since I saw a 6-man single-faction scumteam--in a large theme. In a normal? Never. Heck, I'd have to double-check to make sure, but I don't think I've even seen a 5-man team! And 4 scum? 4 scum's just not enough. 3-man teams, however, IS the norm. It's what I've seen. It's what is generally the standard with this number of players. You can argue it's not balanced. You can argue that it's a 6-man single scumteam, or maybe a 5-man single scumteam, but again...those just don't happen, (well, would have to double-check the 5-man; it probably has, but none come to mind, so that means it's pretty rare) whereas 4-man single (which is way too few for a game of this size) and 6-man double are standard.

So, yes. I think there are two three-man scumteams, because that's what my experience tells me. It fits with the way the game has played out as well. And when I did the math, it worked out.

[mastin2]

Spoiler: The Conversation

How you know this.

Experience, combined with math. I did the numbers; I have over 70 on-site non-marathon games (I'm old. ), and over 20 of them are Large Normals.

Math--6/24 = 25%, ideal scum balance, whereas 5/24 = 21% (rounded)--theoretically possible, yes, but that's where the "experience" part comes in; it would be extremely rare to see it on such a low side of the spectrum. 5+SK, maybe, but again, if there are two anti-town kills, they reek of being in the style of two scumteams rather than single scumteam and single player.

For all my faults as a player, I do know my numbers.

And hence where the experience comes in. I've never in my time seen two four-man scumteams.

No, seriously.

I've seen a couple of three-four multiscum games (incredibly rare--there are only two I've seen, Emerald City and Amrun's Otters vs Tigers vs Sharks; uneven scumteams are INCREDIBLY hard to balance),

but never two teams of four

*. In seventy games. With something like 2/5ths of them being Large.

Besides, 8/24 = 1/3rd, the highest boundary possible. Math and experience say that four scum on a team is impossible.

Heck, even in a 26-player multiscum game, I'd expect three.

*

*Nevermind, thought of one due to the second-sentence I marked, meaning I HAVE seen it before...once. With 26 players, Mirror Mafia (which gave away its setup via the title) had two teams of four, but it was a 26-player game. Not 24.

tl;dr: Theoretically, it'd be possible to have two 4-man scumteams, but my experience tells me differently. Like I said. I know my numbers. Two scumteams of 3 in a game of this size is most likely. (Though as I've said, I'm not sold on it. It makes sense, and it fits with everything I know, but I'm far from positive. We really won't know for sure 'til we have a scumflip.)

42% scum?

Yeah, bad setup.

One can go through the NY games, by the way, and see proof of what I'm saying.

Mirror Mafia had two teams of 4, sure.
Lovers Mafia had two teams of 4, but that was necessary by the very nature of the game.

Every other multiscum game here, from Trumpet's to Rolling in the Deep to Mafia on Werewolf Island to Outdoorsmen Mafia 2...

...Has had two teams of three.

[Code_X]

I'm not going to argue LLD's case for her, but it took two random guesses to find a 5 scum team in a 22 man game in New York. 134 for the record.

I'm not going to be anal and check 50 games but your experience argument is flawed.

[mastin2]

Well, I DID say it probably has, just that none came to mind. (Understandably; that game was...not something *I* would like to remember having been a part of. ) Whereas I can think of plenty with 4-man single scumteams.

[mastin2]

And all that said...

We could argue all day about this. We could debate the math, we could argue the numbers, we could challenge my claims and look at the facts, and then we could even compare games which are similar to what people say this game should be (4/5/6 scum, with a SK) and see how they don't really match the patterns in this game, whereas comparing it to what *I* say it should be (2 teams of 3) will show how it fits the pattern nearly perfectly...

...Yet in the end, the argument would produce no scum. Because debating theory inside of a game is ultimately pointless, and everyone involved (regardless of their alignment) is speaking truthfully, defending what they believe, hence why this is a subject for MD or post-game.


...So why not just ignore it all and focus on scumhunting? I believe in two three-man teams. You believe I'm wrong. But in the end, it doesn't matter who's right or wrong; that should become evident with time, no? All that me believing that there are two teams of three does is influence the way I scumhunt. It doesn't change the fact that I'm still hunting for scum, the exact same way that I would be if I were hunting for a single scumteam (okay, not *exact*; there are *some* differences with interactions, but for overall play/motive/intention and tone and scumminess of an individual player, that all remains the same), so why is my belief that there are two three-man teams a problem?

[StrangerCoug]

I'm confident we're looking at 1 scum team + a SK or 1 scum team + a vig.

Thoughts?

I see your logic as to why you don't think there are two scum teams, but I doubt a vig. Neither of the Day 1 kills stood out as scum to me, Kublai Khan was strong town, and drmyshotgun was a claimed power role, albeit a somewhat useless one.

[Lady Lambdadelta]

I'm confident we're looking at 1 scum team + a SK or 1 scum team + a vig.

Thoughts?

I see your logic as to why you don't think there are two scum teams, but I doubt a vig. Neither of the Day 1 kills stood out as scum to me, Kublai Khan was strong town, and drmyshotgun was a claimed power role, albeit a somewhat useless one.

You underestimate the capability of a vig to be absolutely terrible.

[StrangerCoug]

Unless given clear evidence to the contrary, I assume people are reasonable, not stupid.

[The Mini-Librarian]

@LLD: While it's true that the kills last night don't really make much sense from a two-scum team angle, I'm not really seeing how this is helping us find scum. Unless of course you think Mastin is a SK or Scum.

@Mastin: Do you have any town games in your history where you put this much stock in the reads of dead townies?

[Code_X]

I'm coming round to the opinion that Mastin is town after a re-read of several players in isolation.

Unvote: Junpei

Vote: DeasVail

Noticeable Kdowns has decided to vanish again also. No doubt he'll not bother to read the pages he's missed.

[DeasVail]

Oh, ok then

I will make an effort to be more involved soon-ish. Probably this weekend. Sorry again.

[HezLucky]

I'm coming round to the opinion that Mastin is town after a re-read of several players in isolation.

Unvote: Junpei

Vote: DeasVail

Noticeable Kdowns has decided to vanish again also. No doubt he'll not bother to read the pages he's missed.

Deflect. Deflect. Deflect. Deflect. Deflect. Deflect. Deflect.

Does screaming deflect everytime someone doesn't vote for Junpei make me anti-town for essentially scaring anyone off from making any sort of conversation and discussion whatsoever?

Yes. Yes it does. There will be plenty of time to talk tomorrow. For now, all I see is deflection. And that will be held against you. By me.