TM2012: Scummies 2011.5 - Let the credits roll!

[DeasVail]

You keep back-pedaling.

Yes, and...

[Zar]

You keep back-pedaling.

Yes, and...

I want more from you other than your wishy-washy 590

[DeasVail]

I want more from you other than your wishy-washy 590

Why?

And, what do you want from me then?

[MagnaofIllusion]

@hito

– I’d like your thoughts on what way you think we should proceed to lynch today. Also – who did you officially vote for yesterday?

@Zar

– who is scum. I see your posts today are filled with comments but no real push to actually call out anyone as scummy.

--

MoI: Why are you considering theam as possible scum now and not yesterday?

I find it interesting that yesterday I was trying to say theam wasn't necessarily town, and no one listened to me and now theam being possible scum is a popular belief.

Because Mafia is a game of incomplete information. My TheAm as possible scum is driven by the information provided by the alignment of those on his wagon. Multiple scum (Ajax + another) makes him a terrible lynch for reasons already stated.

Magua who was one of those on the wagon (until he hopped to hammer Ajax) who I suspected of being scum. KK is the other. If both of those players end up Town then the implications of the late push on TheAm and the impliciation of Ajax’s hop changes.

This was already explained to you. Why are you asking about it now. Do you not understand the process of how reads shift based on new information?

Also you didn’t answer my question – why did your MoI is no longer a townread. I'm going to reconsider. statement vanish at the start of today?

--

I posted my thoughts early in Day 2. Nobody cared much except for MagnaofIllusion. I'll re-read and post new thoguhts later tonight.

And if I don't agree with my teammates, then I don't post their thoughts.

Funny, because I thought that posting thoughts of teammates was a scummy action. No-one asked you originally what your teammates thought of Fonz’s death. Yet you are suddenly happy to share what your QT has after going freaking crazy Day 1 when I did the same.

@KK

– I’d certainly like you to give your actual list of who is scum at this stage sometime soon.

--

If anyone wants to look into all players off the Ajax wagon, a complete list is more useful than one with players that have been removed from it.

Do you think the rest of the playerbase is incapable of looking up said list themselves or recognizing that a Town player has no reason to place themselves on a list of possible scum as they know they are Town?

--

I do think it's a little unsafe to declare "these people are cleared if this person is scum", because it's not 100%. I really want a lynch on theamateur, but I'm not married to that and could be easily swung to KK if that's majority/half opinion.

While I understand your point I am at a place that a KK scum-flip means (in the wording of Llamamarble) I’m confident enough in my analysis I’d be willing to be lose the game if I was wrong regarding those clears.

My problem with a TheAm lynch today is that he is always pretty damn terrible and I’ve got that old ‘Furc’ itch in the back of my brain regarding terribad Town. Then again after DC Universe Mafia perhaps it is better to get the VI out of the way early.

I’ll mull …

[Zar]

What I want from you DeasVail is to be more engaged in solving the game and looking into possible partnerships with Ajax. Your stances in #590 are filled with wiggle room and your comment looks like you want to sheep others decisions rather than present your own suspects.

xReckonerX-

A moderate townread at the moment because of the Gaoth vote and I agree that he would probably be playing differently as scum. I'm still not very sure about this though and I get a kind of scummy feeling from him.

^^The definition of fencesitting.

MagnaofIllusion-

I don't really see scum pushing Ajax as heavily as MoI did. That and his high activity are what contributes to my townread on him.

^^ This I agree with this. I find a MoI/Ajax partnership unlikely based on their interactions in thread.

BBmolla-

This is one of my reads that I find myself having to reconsider. I originally had a bit of a scumread on him because he didn't really seem to know what to do in our Day 1 judging group and posted there well after his first post in the thread. He doesn't seem to show much thought regarding Ajax, and seems to jump straight to supporting his lynch.

Until the claim of cop, I never felt at all sure about Ajax

(although maybe that's just a me thing).

I think there are a few things that he says that seem townish, but going through his ISO, I've decided he's one of the less towny of the players remaining.

^^ Vague. What are these things that you find townish in BBMolla? Elaborate.

If you weren't at all sure of Ajax being scum, why did you keep your vote parked on him all through D1?

Kublai Khan-

I think he's town because of the thing where he didn't know that we were all judging each round, which I'm pretty sure happened before he asked me for my alignment preference (

which would only be done as scum in an effort to look town to me, which would be unnecessary following me taking what he said in the QT as a towntell

). Also, let's face it. Convincing me that you're town is one of the least useful things scum can do. Even his magua vote seems more eager than it would be from scum. Question: Is there anything in theam's ISO that makes you question your scumread?

^^ This is an even-handed stance. There's enough room in it for you to go either way with it where the momentum tilt against KK. What gives you the impression that KK's Magua vote is unlilkely to come from scum?

T-Bone-

Seems like town to me, but I have a question or two: How did MoS know to point out what you said he pointed out in 242? Why didn't you vote theam Day 1?

Another Vague statement. What in T-Bone seems town to you?

Theamatuer-

Probably town, but why did you have a townread of Magua? What did you think of the scumreads on him?

.
^^Vague. What are the reasons sustenting your amatuer town read? Why are you asking theam specifically about his town-read of Magua?

Hitgoroshi-

Seems genuine overall, but I'm interested in why you thought Magua was scum?

^^ Does this mean you think hito is town? Furthermore, many players stated Magua was likely to be scum. Why do you single out hito to ask this question?

[Lost Butterfly]

Day 3, Votecount 2

theamatuer (1) - Kublai Khan
Kublai Khan (1) - MagnaofIllusion

Not voting

(7): xRECKONERx, BBmolla, T-Bone, theamatuer, DeasVail, Zar, hitogoroshi

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch or no-lynch.

Deadline:

June 13th at 7:12 PM (EDT)

Countdown to deadline

: (expired on 2012-06-13 19:12:13)

[MagnaofIllusion]

@Zar

- Still waiting in your reads list ...

[DeasVail]

MoI:

I reconsidered yesterday and decided you were probably town. Also, I don't understand your logic regarding theam-scum being more viable with magua-town as opposed to magua-scum. Magua had the choice of voting theam or ajax, and I could see him voting theam if theam was his buddy with Ajax. I don't see how it actually makes a difference.

I think I'm going to

VOTE: Zar

I think his posts demonstrate that he doesn't relate to me as town. I

think

it's normal as town to have conflicting thoughts and to be unsure of things and not being able to fully explain townreads. However, Zar is taking a very scummy (in my opinion) approach to my reads, as he obviously doesn't get that I'm likely to have those as my thoughts and express them in that way.

I don't actually get where this is coming from either. Does he think I'm scum? The degree of his push for me to be more involved and clarify my reads suggests not. Does he want to be able to better read me? Again, his questions/requests don't seem to be for that purpose. The way he's attacking my reads just seems so much like it is from scum's perspective.

1. No, it's not fencesitting. I'm explaining how I feel about Reckoner. I have decided on having him as a moderate townread.

3. The question is, why do you want to know? My answer though is that I find it difficult to explain what I find townish about him, it's just a feeling from his posts that it's what town would say rather than scum. And I wasn't sure about Ajax, but he was my strongest scumread. My problem with Molla was what I perceived to be a lack of consideration for the possibility of Ajax-town.

4. I think that underlined sentence is pretty clearly in favour of KK-town. I think the Magua vote was explained already. I remember reading it as quite an eager vote (i.e. from someone who actually thinks Magua is scum) Scum are unlikely to be so eager because they'd know they're joining a mislynch (and although they'd feel happy about it, they wouldn't want to show it).

5. If you want this because you'd like to be able to read T-Bone better, I'll try explaining to you. Otherwise, no. Another problem, Zar's comments on my reads rarely show any real thought as to what his own are.

6. Another recent post of mine has the main ones. Theam asking for an investigative role being the main one. He had a townread on Magua when everyone else had a scumread, and didn't explain it, as far as I'm aware.

7. Yes, and it was because he was the most certain of the pairing and I was interested in what his reasoning was.

I would like to know what other people think of Zar.

[hitogoroshi]

BBMolla, still waiting to hear why you picked Quilford over MoI.

Reck, yesterday you mentioned you'll need to rethink your town-read on theam

if

he wasn't a true counterwagon. You clearly seem to think that he wasn't, now; what made you think that? And where'd you draw up your "There is probably scum in theamateur/hitogoroshi/BBmolla" list from?

@hito – I’d like your thoughts on what way you think we should proceed to lynch today. Also – who did you officially vote for yesterday?

I voted for you to get the scummie. Magua did too. That's why I'm really wondering why it went to Quilford. And I think that we can connect this to the Fonz getting Best Newbie if we work it through. But I need to hear from BBMolla and theam (anytime with your in-depth reason) before I can try to game it out. I'm gunshy about setup speccing too hard after Ponybash Invitational but I want to look at this at least.

I'm leery on the idea of theam-scum. Ajax's crap suspicion looks pretty similar to what he did on Quilford and myself. I think it's pretty well likely Ajax's votes were all on town. Not to mention now-conftown Magua slot argued that theam was obvtown. However, there's the issue with Quilford getting best IC, and until that's sorted out I'm not falling down one way or the other on BBMolla/theam.

Independent of tracking information flow in the scummy flips, I want to look in the list of zar, KK, T-Bone. I know T-Bone's vote on Ajax looks clean, but bus one + lurk to victory isn't the newest thing under the sun, and I'm really bugged by this:

Definitely agree on Theam. Honestly the only reason at this point I was calling him town was because Ajax flipped scum. I can subscribe to Hito's(I think) theory that Theam is scum and Ajax's vote on the wagon was to give Theam town credit. His ISO reads like a 'greatest hits list' of this is exactly how scum play.

If his ISO is "a greatest hits list of exactly how scum play", you're not going to follow it through at all?

So, lynching, the first thing I want to do is shake the setup a bit and see what falls out. If that doesn't pan out, T-bone/KK/zar are the ones I want to pursue, although there's also the discussion-with-Nuwen wild card (I freely admit I got a little cocky yesterday, and told the team basically that I'd handle scummies myself, since I figured Magua was second scum down...)

[Zar]

@Zar

- Still waiting in your reads list ...

I still think that, of the players off the Ajax wagon, KK is most likely partnered to him.

Here are my current reads.

Tier 1: Kublai Khan, BBMolla, DeasVail
Tier 2: Reck, hito, T-Bone
Tier 3: theam, MoI

Kublai Khan: never casted a vote other than his RVS vote on D1. #519 stands.
BBMolla: Scumhunt LVL Zero on D2.
DeasVail: Overall safeplay, wishy-washy reads all through + despite parking his vote on D1 on Ajax, has now declared he was never sure of his scumread on Ajax until the fakeclaim. Feels like he isn't interested in gaining any enemies or garnering attention.
Reck: Disliking the contradicting stance between #423 and #608. He provided reasons why he considered theam to be town yet now has him as one of his best scum prospects. I don't think confessing to being the holder of the DoubleVoter award is entirely on his favor, since all we needed to do would be to voteclaim within 1B and a contradiction wouldn't make him look good.
hito: townish impression based on the interactions within 1B. Not a whole lot of scum-hunt on D2. Feels as if hito is riding the town wave. Not my current suspect.
T-Bone: Lowest poster. Very little analysis from his side. The thing that makes me favor him is #242, which was a turning point in the Ajax wagon. #242 came at a point in which the competing wagon (TheAmatuer) had 3 votes. as a buddy, T-Bone could have hopped into the competing wagon to save his partner. His vote made Ajax a more likely lynch than theamatuer.
theam: strongly doubt that theam and Ajax could be partners. If Ajax was looking for a way out of his lynch, it seems unlikely he would hop onto a buddy.
MoI: the player driving the game. Unlikely to be partnered to Ajax based on his interactions (#35, #111, #126 and #130 are very unlikely to come from a buddy).

[xRECKONERx]

@hito: The points raised against theam being a true counterwagon convinced me. I don't remember exactly what they were right now... I just woke up 15 minutes ago from a 16 hour sleep, so I'm a little braindead. Let me come back to this question later. Remind me.

As for why you three are scum, I'm going off of the fact that you three were in the group that gave the scummie to Magua, right? Or am I mistaken on that one, too?

I probably need to reassess the game with a clear mind, because I'm so upside down I thought it was MoI/DV in my group yesterday, not KK/DV.

[hitogoroshi]

As for why you three are scum, I'm going off of the fact that you three were in the group that gave the scummie to Magua, right? Or am I mistaken on that one, too?

Magua didn't have a scummie, he flipped only "best town performance."

[xRECKONERx]

What the fuck, my brain is so scattered

so it was Quilford who had a scummie and he died overnight, which group gave him the scummie?

[DeasVail]

Zar:

You certainly like to get straight to the point, don't you?

[DeasVail]

-I don't understand why you find my reads wishy-washy, I have made a stance on all of them except BBmolla.
-Do you feel your play has been less safe than mine?
-What does me not being sure of Ajax have to do with anything?

[BBmolla]

BBMolla, still waiting to hear why you picked Quilford over MoI.

Coinflip.

[xRECKONERx]

me, hito, BBmolla, and magua

Okay, and that's the group that gave Quilford the award. Right people, wrong target.

So my point still stands, hito.

[hitogoroshi]

me, hito, BBmolla, and magua

Okay, and that's the group that gave Quilford the award. Right people, wrong target.

So my point still stands, hito.

eh. I'm really annoyed but I'm not sure they're scum.

BBMolla DID suggest coinflip between MoI and quilford. theam is a little more of a question mark; he said final decision should go to me (and I said it should be MoI full stop) and then didn't follow. So I'm really fuckin curious as to what the big idea of his "plan" was. But I think it's not quite on the level of "certain scum in the grouping".

Scum in the group know that Magua and I are both voting MoI (unless they miss that part of his post, in which case they think Magua is voting Quil and I'm voting MoI); scum BBMolla thinks theam is gonna listen to me because it's the last thing he said, scum theam knows it's 2-to-1 MoI and would probably wanna pick him? It's not 100% though, because there's both the chance the scum missed Magua saying he swapped target, or a scum power that gives +1 votes or something. (That's a theory I'm toying with because it sorta explains Fonz - Ajax uses his scum +1 vote to do 2 fonz, thinking people won't align because there wasn't talk. As it happens, it was a 50% shot between Fonz and I, but RNG worked for scum? Not sure, but it seems to cover all the bases. But so do some other theories.)

still, too early to say scum are for real and for true in that group, imho.

[theamatuer]

Why was Quilford killed anyways? The only reason seems to be because of the PR.
Also this is a proddodge. Will have something interesting up soon that is not my long and important case but will help it.

[xRECKONERx]

Interesting. So it makes it less likely scum knew what was going to happen, unless scum had the "deciding vote" a la Ajax D1.

I still think it's more likely that there's at least one scum in that group than not at all.

[DeasVail]

The scumteam has a secret additional means of interfering with the judging process.

[xRECKONERx]

Where'd you read that? I don't see it in the rules.

[DeasVail]

Mina's post in the Team Mafia MD thread.

[T-Bone]

So, two members of 2B claim to have voted to give the scummy to MoI (Hito, and Magua via Hito), BB decided to give it to Quilford on a coinflip, Thematuer gave it to? Either way that's not good. That's the second time that happened.

So Hito, when you say "scum in the group know Magua and you voted MoI" doesn't that mean by default BB or Theamatuer are scum from your perspective, assuming scum was in your group? We do know from Day 1 Ajax had to be able to do something from his group to mess with the voting. Perhaps scum could do it a second time. The question is, are they able to mess with the scummy process from the inside, or outside?

Theam, who did you give the scummy to?

I agree with Reck, it's more likely scum was in that group. I think we're looking at 1 scum in Hito/BB/Theam, with all that has happened over the last three day phases if it's between those three it has to be Theam at this point. Hito doesn't make any sense to me, neither does BB.

Vote: Theamatuer

[Zar]

Zar:

You certainly like to get straight to the point, don't you?

Yes.

-I don't understand why you find my reads wishy-washy, I have made a stance on all of them except BBmolla.

wish·y-wash·y

   [wish-ee-wosh-ee, -waw-shee]

adjective

1.lacking in decisiveness; without strength or character; irresolute.

So, let's see:

xReckonerX-

A moderate townread at the moment

because of the Gaoth vote and I agree that he would probably be playing differently as scum.

I'm still not very sure about this though and I get a kind of scummy feeling from him.

MagnaofIllusion-

I don't really see scum pushing Ajax as heavily as MoI did. That and his high activity are what contributes to my townread on him.

BBmolla-

This is one of my reads that I find myself having to reconsider. I originally had a bit of a scumread on him

because he didn't really seem to know what to do in our Day 1 judging group and posted there well after his first post in the thread. He doesn't seem to show much thought regarding Ajax, and seems to jump straight to supporting his lynch

.

Until the claim of cop, I never felt at all sure about Ajax (although maybe that's just a me thing)

.

I think there are a few things that he says that seem townish, but

going through his ISO

,

I've decided he's one of the less towny of the players remaining

.

Kublai Khan-

I think he's town because of the thing where he didn't know that we were all judging each round, which I'm pretty sure happened before he asked me for my alignment preference (which would only be done as scum in an effort to look town to me, which would be unnecessary following me taking what he said in the QT as a towntell). Also, let's face it. Convincing me that you're town is one of the least useful things scum can do. Even his magua vote seems more eager than it would be from scum. Question: Is there anything in theam's ISO that makes you question your scumread?

T-Bone-

Seems like town to me,

but

I have a question or two: How did MoS know to point out what you said he pointed out in 242? Why didn't you vote theam Day 1?

Theamatuer-

Probably town,

but

why did you have a townread of Magua? What did you think of the scumreads on him?

Zar-

I think he could be scum

.

How he comes around to thinking Magua scum does seem suspicious. 558 is like "I voted for Magua so I better start attacking him",

but sometimes he seems genuine

.

Question: Why were you so dramatic in your vote for Molla Day 1? Why did you leave yourself in the lists in 408?

Hitgoroshi-

Seems genuine overall,

but

I'm interested in why you thought Magua was scum?

I haven't decided on who I want to lynch today

,

and would like comments on my reads and answers to my questions.

-Do you feel your play has been less safe than mine?

Definitely.

-What does me not being sure of Ajax have to do with anything?

http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 9#p4037329