TM2012: White Flag Mafia (Game Over)

[Matias]

I'm also not saying she's explicitly town; I'm saying my reads are fucked.

Which is not a good excuse to not have any reads now.

My lack of good reads doesn't stem from my prior suspicion of singer o_O

CES was not a strange kill. In fact I would have expected Zach, CES, or Ben to die given the fact that they were all likely to be confirmed town and just another obstacle for scum to overcome/manipulate.

Your statement of waiting for everyone to check in with their reads says to me "Well, I don't really have any good suspects anymore, might as well wait for the next opportunity lynch to present itself"

You're already laying the groundwork for a mislynch on Sociopath as seen in this post below.

I have a few problems with this.

1. First of all, Ben is not even close to being a universal town read, so I think your list of town reads are way off.

2. Your usage of "confirmed" town is kind of troubling.

3. How the hell do you know Socio is town?

For the record, the basis of my weird feelings on him has a lot to do with the fact that he mentioned some interaction that I had with Amrun as the basis on his first vote on me and then never again mentioned it. How can you say that finding that weird is "setting up a mislynch" when you don't even know Socio's alignment in the first place?

[Matias]

No one is "confirmed" town, and not ever. Believing that either means you don't know how White Flag works, or you're scum (because you understand perfectly how terminology like that can affect a game like White Flag with two scum left).

[Matias]

I also failed to touch up on the "waiting for others' reads so I can tag along", which isn't true and is speculation.

My reads so far have been Johhog scum, a weaker Amrun scum, a prior scum read on you, scum read on early Day 2 singer, "I haven't a fucking clue" on Llamarble and "scummy I guess" on Benmage. So far, one was wrong right out, and I didn't have an explicit scum read on Llamarble, which causes me to cast away what I've thought so far and start fresh with whatever information is on the table so far. That doesn't mean that I plan on being on an opportune lynch anytime soon, it means I'm lost.

[Captain Falcon]

Here we go with the undermining.

Point 1 - really?

Everyone

, how many of you think Ben is town?
Point 2 - it is obviously not "matter of fact I know they are town". It is exaggeration, but I feel confident with labeling them as confirmed town.
Point 3 - Because of his play. He is playing a minimalistic approach that I think is paranoid townie

To your next paragraph, I never explicitly mentioned what I thought was you laying the ground work, it is ironic that you automatically attribute it to something entirely different.

The quoted part

"easy stance votes, how did he expect his vote to go anywhere?" is what I was specifically referring to. You point to something that is slightly scummy as the bait to see if anyone takes it, hence setting up a mislynch.

pedit:

all of those except for Amrun's read have been very bad imo

Also, is it worse to have bad town reads or bad scum reads?

[Matias]

You didn't really answer anything.

I would like to know how many people thought Ben was town at the

end of Day 2

.

You also disregarded my point about how dangerous that terminology is in White Flag. It's not just an "exaggeration". You can BELIEVE people are town, sure. But "confirmed town" is potentially harmful.

Regardless, thanks for explaining what you were referring to, and I don't see the problem. How is something like that "slightly scummy"? He parked a vote on me for a reason that he never brought up again, then he parked a vote on Bub and then completely disregarded -either- wagon.

For the record: I agree that all of those reads are bad. But especially the one on Amrun. That's why I'm taking a step back and re-evaluating.

In WF, it's worse to have too many strong town reads. Read last year's game for an example.

[Matias]

*he disregarded either wagon, meaning Llamarble's and Benmage's. Did he expect a miraculous Bub or Matias lynch yesterday?

[Captain Falcon]

Why was Amrun's so bad in particular?

He connected you two as teammates and given his self stated meta on Day 1, obviously he was not going to go out of his way to attack you both seeing as it would make him a potential target which to my knowledge is the entire reason he is playing the way he is.

[Zachrulez]

Why was Amrun's so bad in particular?

He connected you two as teammates and given his self stated meta on Day 1, obviously he was not going to go out of his way to attack you both seeing as it would make him a potential target which to my knowledge is the entire reason he is playing the way he is.

Which is fine if you buy the explanation at face value and don't think he's actually playing that way to be able to explain his survival in the game because he's actually scum.

And further, he has no reason now to continue to play to that strategy as town, because all the town needs to do is lynch one more scum to win, and there's no threat of a nightkill following that which would lead to last year's result.

[Captain Falcon]

Why was Amrun's so bad in particular?

He connected you two as teammates and given his self stated meta on Day 1, obviously he was not going to go out of his way to attack you both seeing as it would make him a potential target which to my knowledge is the entire reason he is playing the way he is.

Which is fine if you buy the explanation at face value and don't think he's actually playing that way to be able to explain his survival in the game because he's actually scum.

And further, he has no reason now to continue to play to that strategy as town, because all the town needs to do is lynch one more scum to win, and there's no threat of a nightkill following that which would lead to last year's result.

I was actually waiting for someone to bring that up.

More town points for you.

I'll wait until Socio makes another comment before I make my comment on this.

[Captain Falcon]

Matias, read on Bub?

[Matias]

Matias, read on Bub?

Ehhhh.

He started off completely null, started becoming more town by the end of Day 1 and the start of Day 2, but that has tapered off recently. Like null-scumish?

I can say that my scummiest read right now is Socio. I'd say that you, Bub, Ben and Johhog are behind but to a significant degree I guess. Again, though, I have shit reads this game so far, so I'm not putting too much stock into them at the moment.

[Matias]

Why was Amrun's so bad in particular?

He connected you two as teammates and given his self stated meta on Day 1, obviously he was not going to go out of his way to attack you both seeing as it would make him a potential target which to my knowledge is the entire reason he is playing the way he is.

Amrun's is bad because it was simply a matter of "I didn't like this wagon. I'd rather go with this other one because at least I can SEE how she can be scum at this point". It was a terrible read in general.

[Captain Falcon]

You still see Johhog and I as possible scum?

;_;

[Matias]

You still see Johhog and I as possible scum?

;_;

Everyone's "possible" scum. I thought I just finished explaining that.

[Johhog]

Matias, 12 hours ago:

CES is a strange kill.

My list of suspects is extremely low. Just Benmage, and that's not even too strong after that flip (purely doubt of my own reads).

I'll wait for everyone to check in I suppose with their reads. I'm lost.

Matias, now:

Matias, read on Bub?

Ehhhh.

He started off completely null, started becoming more town by the end of Day 1 and the start of Day 2, but that has tapered off recently. Like null-scumish?

I can say that my scummiest read right now is Socio. I'd say that you, Bub, Ben and Johhog are behind but to a significant degree I guess. Again, though, I have shit reads this game so far, so I'm not putting too much stock into them at the moment.

Socio has posted once since Matias first post, it was a vote... on Matias.

I gotta say that you're looking desperate Matias. Do you have something to admit?

You still see Johhog and I as possible scum?

;_;

Everyone's "possible" scum. I thought I just finished explaining that.

WROOOOOONGGG ANSWEEEERRR

I thought I was your second scum read. Now I'm just "possible scum", as everyone else?

[Johhog]

Also, Matias choosing to focus on Falcon's questionable use of the term "confirmed" is terrible.

[Matias]

I posted that first post before Socio voted me. I admit that I overlooked his Bub vote. His vote on me made me look at him.

My mindset at the beginning of the day was focused on the Benmage vs. Llamarble wagons of the day before, where Benmage still didn't look any better (and still doesn't, but now I recognize that Socio placed his vote twice on people who were in no danger of being lynched, so he took the lead).

You should realize that the people who I didn't mention on that list are people who's lynches at this point have completely no merit whatsoever, but could in the future.

I also just got done explaining that "possible scum" means "not confirmed town". ANYONE can be scum, but it doesn't mean that I'm going to actively pursue everyone who I listed.

Preview edit: Why?

[Matias]

Straight up, that kind of thing lost us the game last year. I'm not going to sit here and listen to "Benmage is confirmed town" when the mod didn't fucking confirm it.

[Equinox]

Vote Count 3.02

Matias (3) - Johhog, SocioPath, Captain Falcon
Nachomamma8 (2) - Zachrulez, singersigner

Not Voting (4) - Benmage, Bub Bidderskins, Matias, Nachomamma8

With 9 alive, it's 5 to lynch.

The deadline is Tuesday, June 19, 2012, at 11:30 PM EDT (UTC-4).

[Johhog]

Preview edit: Why?

Because you're discussing the definition of the word "confirmed" instead of actually contributing. If you were town you would realise that it's outright anti-town to focus on things like that instead of scum hunting.

Not only that, but you're also using it as a bad excuse to express suspicion of Falcon (As if using confirmed the wrong way would make him scum!).

[Matias]

Preview edit: Why?

Because you're discussing the definition of the word "confirmed" instead of actually contributing. If you were town you would realise that it's outright anti-town to focus on things like that instead of scum hunting.

Not only that, but you're also using it as a bad excuse to express suspicion of Falcon (As if using confirmed the wrong way would make him scum!).

It's not. I believe I said "either you're scum for using it or you don't understand how White Flag works", the latter being entirely possible.

[Johhog]

Preview edit: Why?

Because you're discussing the definition of the word "confirmed" instead of actually contributing. If you were town you would realise that it's outright anti-town to focus on things like that instead of scum hunting.

Not only that, but you're also using it as a bad excuse to express suspicion of Falcon (As if using confirmed the wrong way would make him scum!).

It's not. I believe I said "either you're scum for using it or you don't understand how White Flag works", the latter being entirely possible.

Don't go around nitpicking on your own word choices. I'm absolutely, 100% sure that you don't actually think that Falcon doesn't understand the setup. Do you really think that a player as experienced as him wouldn't read the setup?

And this reads to me like you being sarcastic and now you're pretending that you were serious.

[Zachrulez]

This is kinda bothering me so I have to ask.

Why is Johhog town?

I haven't really been able to get a really solid read on him throughout the game, but I did manage to file him off as town without really being able to put a reason behind why that was. Looking through his play yesterday, he pushed back against the Llamarble wagon to the point of saying he thought it might be scum driven while stating a null read on Llama himself. (The candidates for scum on that wagon at the point he said it would be bub, myself, and CES. We know CES's alignment. I know mine, and I think Bub is town who is tunneled on me.)

[Zachrulez]

And yeah, my gut tells me that Matias is a bad lynch.

[Johhog]

I haven't really been able to get a really solid read on him throughout the game, but I did manage to file him off as town without really being able to put a reason behind why that was. Looking through his play yesterday, he pushed back against the Llamarble wagon to the point of saying he thought it might be scum driven while stating a null read on Llama himself. (The candidates for scum on that wagon at the point he said it would be bub, myself, and CES. We know CES's alignment. I know mine, and I think Bub is town who is tunneled on me.)

I'm not sure what you're trying to imply here but obviously I don't think that it's scum driven anymore (

intentionally

at least), it would be pretty stupid to bus this early with this setup.