Open 391 - Theft on Cookie Island - Town Wins

[Sando]

BTW, the 'oh shit' was because I was very close to claiming to get Om killed, hence I was pretty relieved that I realised my mistake before posting.

[AcRv]

Ah, that post does make more sense now...

I don't really have time to relook at the both of you now. I'll do it tomorrow.

On the topic of Chrimi, however, he had a quite interesting conversation with Thomith a while back which ended with him voting Thomith for no good reason; which I can't see scum doing to their buddy. So I don't think that Thomith and Chrimi are buddies.

[Thomith]

so sando, you say you knew om was scum but still just didn't really try that hard to get them lynched?
If you genuinely red the setup wrong, wouldn't you have at least tried a little as cop to get them lynched, you barely tried at all.

[Sando]

so sando, you say you knew om was scum but still just didn't really try that hard to get them lynched?
If you genuinely red the setup wrong, wouldn't you have at least tried a little as cop to get them lynched, you barely tried at all.

Correct, in my one real post (after my hi I'm back from VLA post) of the day before I realised what was up with the roles, I did not push extremely hard on the person I 'knew' was scum who I also knew would be outed as scum sooner or later.

I didn't barely try, I didn't try at all in that post, I was weighing whether to out myself as a cop to get him lynched right there and hadn't made up my mind.

[Thomith]

but if you genuinely thought that wouldn't you try then? as you would have confirmed scum?

[Rainbowdash]

Vote No Lynch

No Lynch to

Sando cops me
Thomith cops FD

Brings to outted pairs at F7 or confirmed FD/me clears

Chrimi (worst case town) lynch to F6 (night) with
Thomith+PM
or
sando+AcRv/PM
I probably die

Thomith checks PM...

F5 is
Thomith+PM
vs
sando+AcRv

Which means its probably Thomith+PM if thats what happens since AcRv would in a situation where a partner loss ends the game for him be trying to get his partner lynched after he saw the cop claim cop and instead killed Hikari. Both those pairings look like bucking ugly though so its probably Chrimi + somepony or sando + FD.

Tah-dah.

We no lynch

@Sando - You are investigating me
@Thomith - You are investigating FD
@OOTN - You are not blocking, or if you insist upon doing so, blocking VT unless you right here and now want to argue with me that sando+AcRv is a legitimate pairing.

Vote No Lynch

[Rainbowdash]

So yep...

Unless somepony wants to come in and argue why it is one of

Thomith and PM
or
sando and AcRv

Its won by my plan. FD and myself get cleared/caught tonight. Chrimi dies tomorrow unless one of us are scum.

From there those two pairings go one on one in the even FD/Chrimi/myself are all town. I still say both those two are the most likely to be town as well out of Chrimi/FD/PM/AcRv

AcRv is essentially confirmed town to me for not killing Thomith, not to meniton him trying to get sando (only one he could be scum with by plan) lynched when if sando dies today and is his partner he loses no matter how much town cred he gets as there would be too many clears.

Lets do it unless there is a good arguement otherwise. Im going to tabulate the actions. You WILL all take these actions

Player	target
sando	Investigate Rainbowdash
Thomith	Investigate FuDuzn
OOTN	Jail RBD or FD

This way we have two confirmed town in F7, one Scum/Town pair, and three unknowns, one of which we lynch creating the 2v2 worst case D5. Best case its sando-FD and game is over.

[FuDuzn]

RD, please explain what F5, F6, F7 and so on means. I feel like I am missing something.

Also, please explain why a no lynch would be the best instead of lynching Chrimi(I guess I can understand not lynching Thomith).

[Sando]

I'm not seeing the guaranteed win here from no lynch. I will die overnight, you'll be left with 3 confirmed town, 1 confirmed scum, and 3 unconfirmed containing 1 scum. You lynch Thomith, 1 dies overnight, you're left with 2 confirmed, 3 unconfirmed containing 1 scum. Doesn't seem like an auto-win to me.

[Rainbowdash]

I'm not seeing the guaranteed win here from no lynch. I will die overnight, you'll be left with 3 confirmed town, 1 confirmed scum, and 3 unconfirmed containing 1 scum. You lynch Thomith, 1 dies overnight, you're left with 2 confirmed, 3 unconfirmed containing 1 scum. Doesn't seem like an auto-win to me.

If you die it confirms Thomith scum with FD, OOTN and AcRv as town with seven alive. We lynch Chrimi, OOTN blocks PM. If game is going and there is a kill (OOTN) F5 with three clear and force win, if scum stall we just get a free lynch.

Thomith dies overnight same basic plan of attack.

Scum have to kill OOTN tonight.

@FD - F5 for instance is final five (scenario with 5 alive).

I would rather no lynch first because it gives us cop results outside of lylo, its all really similar, but if Chrimi is town it saves a mislynch from occuring if you are scum. Basically the same thing though.

[Sando]

Tomorrow Thomith and another scum will be alive if we no lynch, if we mislynch tomorrow then two scum alive who can submit a kill, why do you think Om's block will achieve anything?

I'm dead, you lynch Chrimi, how are you going to stop scum killing Om overnight? That only works if Chrimi is scum.

[Thomith]

Sando has a point, if we dont lynch a scum today, then what is to stop scum killing om?

[Rainbowdash]

Tomorrow Thomith and another scum will be alive if we no lynch, if we mislynch tomorrow then two scum alive who can submit a kill, why do you think Om's block will achieve anything?

I'm dead, you lynch Chrimi, how are you going to stop scum killing Om overnight? That only works if Chrimi is scum.

Sando has a point, if we dont lynch a scum today, then what is to stop scum killing om?

You guys arent getting it.

This plan results in OOTN dying tonight after a no lynch. Thats a forgone conclusion.

When OOTN dies however, it clears me and FD or it will catch a pair of Thomith-me or sando-FD.

Follow that with a chrimi lynch if needed and all that is not caught is sando-AcRv and Thomith-PM as the pairings that will go against eachother. Its not sando-AcRv so this is a safe move either way given that Thomith-PM is unlikely to start as well (but the obvious pick if its one or other pair).

If we lynch Chrimi and he flips town, we should be in a similar position I guess... actually im not sure I ever really thought of us using a no lynch in F6... ok maybe Chrimi lynch works first afterall

Chrimi lynch (town assume)
OOTN NK (sando->RBD, Thomith->FD) to 6 alive...
Yeah it looks about the same afterall

Ok yeah Chrimi lynch today but we need to keep the same actions that I already stated in order to make sure we get 100% clears ASAP

This means after Chrimi lynch
If town
OOTN tosses his action on me or FD
sando cops me
Thomith cops FD

If scum
scum just suicides since they have lost

[Sando]

Why is it a foregone conclusion? You've just outlined how doing that almost guarantees a scum-loss, and yet it's a foregone conclusion that OOTN dies tonight?

I've pointed out how we're in no way guaranteed a win if they kill me as a cop, so why would they not? Yes it guarantees Thomith dead, but it hides his partner a lot more.

From my point of view killing Thomith is 100% the right choice. It leaves 3 unconfirmed and 4 confirmed going into night. OOTN states his block target tonight amongst those 3, I investigate 1 other. If anyone dies, OOTNs target is cleared.
If OOTN dies his target is cleared and I give you the last scum either through guilty or the last person in the unconfirmed being scum through process of elimination.
If I die, you have two unconfirmed and OOTN is basically a cop at this point, he states who he's blocking, if he dies it's the other person, if he doesn't you lynch that person. Scum might fake it out by not submitting, but that would only buy a day, they need to NK to win.
If no one dies, you have an innocent from me and a probably scum from OOTNs target, lynch for the win.

So, if everyone can agree that Thomith's claim is obviously fake, I'm handing you the game.

[Chrimi]

I like sandos plan.

VOTE: thomith

[Thomith]

Or on the other hand i know you are scum, so that gets us nowhere because we can't guarentee which one is scum, because we have both done things that make our claims look fake, it isn't like one of us has been perfect and is obviously cop, i know you are scum, but everyone else doesn't, so i am willing to go with the RD claim as i doubt you will be lynched today.
UNVOTE:
VOTE: chrimi

[Sando]

RDs plan doesn't work, she's got some holes to fill in it. I'm prepared to listen to her fill those holes, but unless she does, it will in no way guarantee us the game. If I can convince town I'm the cop I win them the game today, right now. With no viable alternative to that given the holes in the other plan, obviously I'm going to push for it.

[Chrimi]

Let me get this straight, sando and thomith claimed cop... Why is thomith voting me, not sando?!

[Thomith]

but you are not cop, you are lieing but only i know it, same with you, in your eyes i am not cop and i am scum, however you are acting like you are the obvious cop because i've made mistakes which make my claim look false, but so have you, so it gets us nowhere, which is why i prefer RD's plan, as you wont be lynched so the perfect plan will not be able to be played, so may as well go for second best right?
chrimi maybe you should read a little.

[AcRv]

... Scum can't kill the other cop claim without exposing which is faking. The one problem is that what if scum go and kill one of the obvtown/conftown players? Because going by Rainbowdash's (pretty decent) logic I'm practically confirmed... so scum wouldn't have a problem with killing me either. That'll enlarge our lynch pool tomorrow, won't it?

[Rainbowdash]

Why is it a foregone conclusion? You've just outlined how doing that almost guarantees a scum-loss, and yet it's a foregone conclusion that OOTN dies tonight?

I've pointed out how we're in no way guaranteed a win if they kill me as a cop, so why would they not? Yes it guarantees Thomith dead, but it hides his partner a lot more.

OOTN is the FORCED scum kill tonight. The win is stunningly simple if you die tonight because of there being one scum left once Thomith dies due to OOTN not being able to die without getting a public clear, and with FD and AcRv already town if you are the cop, its literally a forced win. Other way around close but I think still forced.

The only reason im a little hesitant to lynch Thomith right now is that if I would have had somepony on my team countering Thomith if he is cop, and Thomith got countered.

You need to look at it from a non-you standpoint. Lynching Tomith-cop today means that OOTN probably dies tonight unless he gets a lucky block in, we lynch you, then I die making it F4 with no clears except the psuedo clear AcRv and its Chrimi/PM/FD with no clears in an endgame, which im not letting happen in the case of me being wrong about something here.

I do think Thomith is more liklely scum, but im not going to risk anything that I dont need to risk here.

[Sando]

Ok yep, my bad, me dying guarantees town win.

So at some point town have to make a decision between me and Thomith, correct? I can't find a reason when town can safely mislynch one of us, so if scum never kills me, what changes by this plan? If we mislynch today and tomorrow we draw, and I can't see a way to guarantee a correct lynch in those times (mathematically).

Simply, town have to make a decision, this can't be won through setup manipulation. If we lynch Chrimi today I WILL have a result tomorrow, as I only have RD and PM to choose from.

The way I see it, town have to make a decision either today or tomorrow whether they want to trust me as cop. I'm handing them a win today if they believe me, I will state who the scum team is tomorrow 100%. They can choose to go with me today, or tomorrow.

[Chrimi]

but you are not cop, you are lieing but only i know it, same with you, in your eyes i am not cop and i am scum, however you are acting like you are the obvious cop because i've made mistakes which make my claim look false, but so have you, so it gets us nowhere, which is why i prefer RD's plan, as you wont be lynched so the perfect plan will not be able to be played, so may as well go for second best right?
chrimi maybe you should read a little.

Yeah, that would be a good idea ._.

[projectmatt]

Sando's lying.

Oh shit, my bad there too,

I read it as either 2 JK or a JK and cop

, oops.

If you read it like that I'd've thought you'd claim to show that Ommy must have been lying - with Amrun being dead and flipping JK, you would logically have said "I'm cop and because of the setup Ommy can't be a JK" in post 680 if you genuinely thought that it was either 2 JK or JK and Cop.

UNVOTE:
VOTE: Sando

I don't understand how this is viewed as a slip.

Ah, that post does make more sense now...

I don't really have time to relook at the both of you now. I'll do it tomorrow.

On the topic of Chrimi, however, he had a quite interesting conversation with Thomith a while back which ended with him voting Thomith for no good reason; which I can't see scum doing to their buddy. So I don't think that Thomith and Chrimi are buddies.

Well, here's the issue.

I have a scum read on Thomith and on Chimi, but

it doesn't add up.

http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... lect=17251

Here. Read over this ISO. And press control + F and search for "Thomith".

Every single mention of Thomith is in a negative light or in a way that's in an attempt to paint him as scum. I DON'T understand why he would scumread his partner like that.

And editing in Thomith's reactions..

His reactions to Chrimi are almost not existant, (in fact some of it could be seen as coaching, I guess) but it's messing with me that Thomith is trying ot get Chimi lynched right now. If he IS scum with Chimi, it's autoloss.

So, let me think this through.

If Sando is the real cop, Sac and Furn can NOT be mafia. I am correct, right?

And if Sando is real, the only other possiblity with Thomith + Chimi is Rainbow + Thomith which MIGHT make sense but Rainbow's came off as so extremely town I have trouble fathoming it.

Sigh, let me read over this again..

[projectmatt]

The ONLY thing that's making me second guess my scum read on Thomith is the implications of the scum team if he is fake. I'll read over Sando tonight and try to decide what the best action for today is.

In the meantime though,

I want every single player

here to tell me who they currently think is the scum team.

Yes, RainbowDash, this includes you.