Open 391 - Theft on Cookie Island - Town Wins

[Chrimi]

The scum team is Thomith and whoever the fuck is scum, I really don't care who else but I want him dead now O.O

[projectmatt]

If you could try to out who you think is scum with Thomith being scum, it would be very helpful

[projectmatt]

I'm not planning to hold it against you later or anything, I don't need a confident read, just trying to get something

[Chrimi]

It's Thomith + Fuduzn OR Thomith + PM

Dur deh duh.

So, we might as well lynch Thomith now ._.

[projectmatt]

Is Thomith + Fu even possible?

[Rainbowdash]

In the meantime though,

I want every single player

here to tell me who they currently think is the scum team.

Nah.

In part because I have no clue, in part because this doesnt accomplish anything productive since we are locking into a 1v1 already.

The possible parings are

Thomith + Chrimi
Thomith + PM
Thomith + RBD
Sando + Chrimi
Sando + PM
Sando + FD
Sando + AcRv

I am willing to toss the sando/acrv pair because AcRv is town
Today we get rid of the Chrimi containing ones and if he is town, clear FD and me tonight.

So it doesnt matter unless you are asking me which of

Sando + AcRv and Thomith + PM I think is the more likely pairing, which I have answered, there is no point in answering the bigger picture question. I will take the logical path when needed.

[Chrimi]

Get rid of Thomith, PLEASE. Two people have claimed cop, and you guys are trying to lynch somebody else?

Dumb fuckers.

[Rainbowdash]

Get rid of Thomith, PLEASE. Two people have claimed cop, and you guys are trying to lynch somebody else?

Dumb fuckers.

I point you back to my arguement about how I have a probable forced win and worst case its sando+AcRv vs Thomith+PM

Lynching you (or PM... try and get him lynched if not you) allows me to be cleared and FD to be cleared/caught at which point we get the 1v1 situations all cleaned up.

So...



Try again.

[Sando]

RD, at some point town have to believe my claim or disbelieve my claim and if they choose to believe me either day I give them the win.

At least if town get it wrong and lynch the wrong claimed-cop today there's potential for recovery. That is NOT true tomorrow.

OOTN can you please confirm who you will block tonight amongst Chrimi/PM/RD if we lynch Thomith and he flips scum?

[Sando]

Actually looking at it, literally the only thing that this plan accomplishes is the removal of the buffer for a mislynch of the cop. I'm asking you to believe me today and I'll give you the win. If you disbelieve me today and lynch me, well at least Thomith is dead tomorrow and you've still got a chance. Mislynch me tomorrow after a town mislynch today, and it's a draw at best.

At some point town have to decide to believe me, that should 100% be today, at least if you're wrong you've still got a chance of a win.

[Rainbowdash]

Actually looking at it, literally the only thing that this plan accomplishes is the removal of the buffer for a mislynch of the cop. I'm asking you to believe me today and I'll give you the win. If you disbelieve me today and lynch me, well at least Thomith is dead tomorrow and you've still got a chance. Mislynch me tomorrow after a town mislynch today, and it's a draw at best.

*sigh*

One of my biggest problems with actually doing this is you are doing the exact same thing I would be doing as scum in your position. I have won multiple games as town stepping back and seeing what I would have done as scum in certain positions. This is one where the correct plan of attack was simply that scum counters Thomith and tries to push for their mislynch, hoping for the OOTN NK to go through and having a winnable F3.

Do you think there is a high chance of it being Thomith+PM? Yes or no. Thats ALL I want from you right now. Yes or no do you think thats a probable pairing.

The only way my plan is NOT a forced win tomorrow is a Thomith-PM or Sando-AcRv pairing.

In the event Chirmi is town (low-ish) FD-scum or me-scum get caught tomorrow by the cop. All thats left is those last two pairings that we could work out at that point. Im not using our one mislynch on maybe hitting a cop when screwing it up gives us a very ugly F3.

[Sando]

Ok, so here's my scenario, very likely to happen:
Chrimi flips town, OOTN dies overnight.
I claim a guilty or psuedo-guilty on say PM.
Thomith claims an innocent on Fud (I think that was your suggested target for him).

What now?

You have 6 alive, you cannot mislynch again, you now have to lynch one of the cops. Which one do you choose?

You keep saying 'caught by the cop' tomorrow, how will town know which claimed cop is telling the truth tomorrow as opposed to today?

[Sando]

By the way, and town that agrees with me should NOT vote Thomith until OOTN has stated who he will block overnight within Chrimi/PM/RD. He only needs to do that in the event of a Thomith scum-flip, he can block whoever he wants if I'm lying or Thomith isn't lynched today.

OOTN needs to state his target though within those 3, please do no pre-empt this with a lynch on Thomith.

[Rainbowdash]

Ok, so here's my scenario, very likely to happen:
Chrimi flips town, OOTN dies overnight.
I claim a guilty or psuedo-guilty on say PM.
Thomith claims an innocent on Fud (I think that was your suggested target for him).

First you are targeting me tonight, even though technically PM accomplishes the same thing but leaves a couple traps you and Thomith are going to have results on the same players (me and FD)

What now?

A no lynch.

You keep saying 'caught by the cop' tomorrow, how will town know which claimed cop is telling the truth tomorrow as opposed to today?

Its a matter of if we think that Chrimi is town or not. If he is scum, we have this won right here.

Problem is what happens if we lynch the WRONG cop. Yes it looks like you are more likely to be the cop by a little, but if we are wrong then what? If you are scum, we mislynch Thomith, OOTN probably dies, you get lynched and I die making it AcRv-PM-Chrimi all uncleared (well technically AcRv is still town there) and its a hard final scenario.

Its likely one of the three pairings

Thomith-Chrimi
sando-Chrmi
sando-FD

super small chance PM and sando/Thomith but im treating that as neglegable.

I think AcRv we can treat as town for sure here, and PM as probably town.

Funny part, if we HAD to lynch a cop claim today, I may lynch you just because its that much easier for us to eek out a win if we are wrong as it confirms both AcRv and FD as town along with OOTN. OOTN gets a shot at catching scum through his JK which can go anywhere and we end with a endgame of AcRv/FD+Chrimi+Me where I think I could get Chrimi-scum lynched.

Either way though, I fully prefer we just lynch Chrimi who is probably scum right here.

[Rainbowdash]

unvote

You know what?

I just need to stop trying to break stuff and approach this objectively.

Going to read.

[Sando]

If Chrimi dies today and isn't scum, I know that you or PM are scum. At that point it doesn't matter who I investigate, I will get a result either through guilty or process of elimination.

So tomorrow we have (I'm assuming Chrimi is town because if scum we win):
PM
FuD
RD
Sando
Thomith
AcRv

If Thomith claims an innocent on FuD we have a confirmed townie, and I will tell everyone whether RD is scum or not. Assuming she's not, best case is we have 2 cleared, RD and FuD. We no lynch, one of the confirmed dies overnight. Now we're left with 5 alive, 1 cleared (Thomith will claim a guilty by default, same as I will tomorrow), and you cannot mislynch.

You cannot get around the fact that town have to at some point, choose between the cop claims. It is better they do that today than tomorrow.

[Rainbowdash]

Okay...

Okay..

Ugh

AcRv is town. Period.
OOTN is town. Period.

The fact that Hikari died makes it likely that PM is town. Scum would know that he is not the cop, who the tried to kill.

This leaves FD and Chrimi as possible scum. Which is ick.

I want to actually almost just say lynch Thomith because I really dont buy that he was "just fakeclaiming" and then did nothing when I responded as strongly as I did to that move. Really wish that OOTN would have stayed out of all of this and I would have drawn an easy NK...

Ok

If we lynch Thomith, we either have last scum caught OR clear me and catch sando

we enter a situation where its sando+FD/chrimi at six alive entering night... four alive... yeah so its essentially AcRv with the deciding vote between the two. Maybe not the end of the world afterall.

Aight

Im fine with Thomith lynch followed by (if he is scum) jail of me. If he is town, im clear so dont get jailed and OOTN hits one of FD/sando/PM at random (as AcRv is town).

My only real fear here is sando did EXACTLY what I would have done in his spot as scum. Counter Thomith, get them lynched and have the partner try and win F3.

[Sando]

Unvote

Until OOTN states who between PM/Chrimi/RD he will block tonight in the event that 1) Thomith is lynched and 2) he flips scum.

[Om of the Nom]

I will probably block RD if he flips scum. If he flips cop however, I'm not saying who I'm blocking.

[FuDuzn]

Just tell me when I can vote Thomith, his cop claim is laughable......no one listens when I say he is scum.

[Sando]

Om we actually need you to guarantee who you will block in the event of a Thomith scum-flip. As long as it's in the list of RD/Chrimi/PM is fine, but we need to know who you're blocking in that list.

That means that if anyone dies, we can 100% clear the person you blocked.
If no-one dies either your target is scum or we're being faked out, but I'll have a result clearing someone at minimum, so we can safely lynch your target anyway.
If I die, then your target is cleared and you're left with 2 unconfirmed in 6 tomorrow - lynch one block the other for a guaranteed win.

All of that relies on Thomith being scum today, but I'm only asking that you guarantee who you'll block tonight in that event, do what you want if I'm lying and get Thomith lynched.

For your block to be of worth, we need you to state who you're blocking, so that if/when you die, we can clear the person that you were blocking.

[Om of the Nom]

Actually, I'll block Chrimi.

[Sando]

Thank you, you block Chrimi, I will investigate RD (not that it matters between him and PM).

VOTE: Thomith

Town - just so everyone is aware of the plan (proviso that Thomith is scum and I'm not a lying faker) which works on the fact that Om will be able to block the NK by blocking the last scum.

• - If Om dies tonight Chrimi is town, I am confirmed cop, and I will tell you who the last scum is between PM and RD.
  - If I die tonight, Chrimi is town, you lynch either RD or PM, Om will block the un-lynched of those two (assuming you don't hit scum), scum can no longer submit a kill due to being blocked.
  - If no-one dies tonight, then unless I have a guilty, either PM or Chrimi are guilty, lynch one, block the other.
  - If anyone other than Om/me dies, Chrimi is cleared and I can clear/guilty RD, giving us a guilty on either RD or PM.

That covers all the overnight bases I believe. Yes this relies on Thomith being scum, but as I've shown, at some point you will have to either believe me/thomith or disbelieve me/thomith. Today is your best option for making that decision.

[projectmatt]

Okay, I really need to go to bed but I might have noticed something while I was reading over tonight.

I'll post as soon as I can get online tomorrow, do NOT let a lynch go through yet.

[Om of the Nom]

UNVOTE: