Open 391 - Theft on Cookie Island - Town Wins

[projectmatt]

Unvote

Vote: Chimi

I miscalculated. Lynching between cops is NOT intelligent play but lynching between villagers is. It's near the same situation as no lynching but with a more intelligent outcome.

[projectmatt]

The way I'm looking at this - if Chimi IS NOT mafia he's going to be lynched later in the game. I'm sorry if that's harsh, but I'm fairly positive it's true. I previously had a very strong town read on him but I've recently refined that because well, yeah, I read RD as strongly town and I sorta think that Thomith is fake

[Quaroath]

Vote Count 3.02

Chrimi - 3 (FuDuzn, Om of the Nom, Projectmatt)
Thomith - 2 (Chrimi, Sando)
Sando - 1 (Thomith)

Not Voting - 2 (Rainbowdash, AcRv)

With 8 alive it takes 5 to lynch

Deadline for Day 3 is 6/25/2012 at 11:59 PM PST

[Chrimi]

So I want the person you think is FAKE lynched, yet that's starting to give you a scum read on me?

Thomith and PM scumteam, anybody?

[projectmatt]

that's not the start of the scum read on you

if i think thomith is fake, and sando is real, one of chimi and rainbowdash is mafia

if i think that rainbowdash is extremely town i would start to think that you are mafia

understand?

[projectmatt]

like i said, considering i have doubts with a you/thomith team and rainbowdash comes off as extremely town it makes me WANT to believe that sando is fake

but i've second guessed myself a lot and i really just don't want to

[Chrimi]

Yes, but it doesn't make sense for me to be scum if I've been trying to get Thomith lynched, right?

Just because rainbowdash posts long and has content that is helpful to town, doesn't mean he's not mafia.

[Chrimi]

And that's why it makes sense to me: There's 3 possibilities with Thomith to be scum.

RD.
Me.
You.

It's not Me, It's not RD (I have a town read as well), so it's obviously you.

[projectmatt]

so i'm forced to at the moment

A. push on rainbowdash, who has not done anything to tell as scum ONCE and who i don't even think is mafia

B. push on you, who logically could STILL be mafia even if my scum read on thomith is incorrect

[projectmatt]

Yes, but it doesn't make sense for me to be scum if I've been trying to get Thomith lynched, right?

Just because rainbowdash posts long and has content that is helpful to town, doesn't mean he's not mafia.

Actually, it means he's town. Isn't that why you have him as town?

[Chrimi]

No, it isn't. My reason for him as town is his gambit back there that kinda made him look like cop, etc.

And it doesn't eliminate him as mafia.

But of course I have a town read on him, there can't be 3 mafia after all!

And yes, you could push on me or RD, which makes you push on me of course, but that's because you are scum. If you had the option to push on yourself, and you were town, then you would. But you're scum. And so is Thomith. One of you is dying.

[projectmatt]

the reason i would think he wouldn't be town is BECAUSE of his gambit x_x

It doesn't eliminate him, sure. but the only thing I have to go on with mafia is towntells and scumtells

He's towntold, therefore I don't think he's mafia.

[Rainbowdash]

Im not voting Chrimi because if he is town there is a very good chance we lose this game, especially if sando is scum.

If we no lynch first we clear myself and possibly FD to start, and I dont have to worry about the chance of sando-scum trying to say its me and Thomith as scum.

We no lynch today, sando checks me, Thomith checks FD. We have seven alive, and at that point we can lynch a cop claim and be guarenteed to have at least one useable result from the cop on top of a cleared AcRv.

Vote No Lynch

We have to mislynches here, and I want as much information as possible about the unknowns before we start risking expending them.

[Chrimi]

All of this stuff, no matter what we'll be better off with one less scum.

[Rainbowdash]

All of this stuff, no matter what we'll be better off with one less scum.

Whats the difference between lynching Thomith today and tomorrow apart from the fact that I also am confirmed town if he is scum, or FD is confirmed town if he is the cop?

@Thomith - Why didnt you react at all when it should have been obvious that I thought you were the cop and tried to get the GNR wagon to happen without a claim?

[Chrimi]

We lynch scum sooner, it's better. Believe me. We can still investigate and such tomorrow, because he's not scum

[Rainbowdash]

We lynch scum sooner, it's better. Believe me. We can still investigate and such tomorrow, because he's not scum

Ok so your arguement to "what if he is town" is "he is not"

Try again. If he IS scum as you say and we lynch him, it leaves us with just you and PM unclear.

That is a loss how again? Because I see a forced win, while no lynching eliminates a me-Thomith pairing which is most likely to occur, and the no lynch FIRST gives Thomith-cop a free investigation on FD meaning me, FD and AcRv are clear as opposed to just me and AcRv in the event of Thomith being the cop.

If Thomith is the cop and we lynch him today, OOTN dies, sando lynched, I die... its you-FD-AcRv-PM where AcRv had no clue who to lynch.

If Thomith is the cop and we no lynch first, its at least you vs PM to end it instead of throwing a third lynch into the mix.

No lynching first eliminates all chance of a me or FD mislynch. Period.

[Chrimi]

Except thomith isn't cop ._.

Whatever. VOTE: no lynch

[Sando]

Because I see a forced win

You keep using that phrase, I do not think it means what you think it means.

Please paint me a picture of how you've forced a win, every time you say 'forced' win what you actually mean is that there's still possibilities for scum pairings that are in no way discovered.

I've made it very clear for town how they have to choose between the cops, today is the best time to do that.

Chrimi, if you're town and right about Thomith (I think you're town and know you're right about Thomith), you know that the last scum is one of PM and RD... and you're going along with the no-lynch? It's a bad idea, scum MUST avoid Thomith lynch at all cost as they instantly lose if he's lynched.

I'm happy with Chrimi as town now, there's no way he's so suicidal to push on Thomith as his partner. Town can/should treat him as not scum with Thomith as opposed to definite town.

[Chrimi]

There's no way I'm getting anywhere near a thomith lynch... But I'm not one to leave my guns once I see reinforcements.

VOTE: thomith

[Sando]

We have to mislynches here, and I want as much information as possible about the unknowns before we start risking expending them.

I assume you mean 'two'?

How do we have two?

Assuming we lynch every day:
Today we are 8, mislynch and NK make it 2 scum alive in 6. Mislynch and NK would make it 2 scum in 4 and impossible to win (is this actually a scum-win?)

Assuming we no-lynch today:
Tomorrow we are 7, Mislynch and NK make it 2 scum alive in 5, another mislynch is obvious loss to town.

So remind me again how we have two mislynches? Are you seriously building your no-lynch plan based on having two mislynches?! We cannot get it wrong more than once or we lose.

[Chrimi]

2 scum 4 is a scum win.

[AcRv]

Assuming we lynch every day:
Today we are 8, mislynch and NK make it 2 scum alive in 6. Mislynch and NK would make it 2 scum in 4 and impossible to win (is this actually a scum-win?)

Assuming we no-lynch today:
Tomorrow we are 7, Mislynch and NK make it 2 scum alive in 5, another mislynch is obvious loss to town.

Is this what you mean?

Assuming mislynch lynch today:
Day 3 ends: 7 people (2 scum, 5 town)
Night 3 ends: 6 people (2 scum, 4 town)
Day 4: We lose.

Assming no lynch today:
Day 3 ends: 8 people (2 scum, 6 town)
Night 3 ends: 7 people (2 scum, 5 town)
Day 4: It's LyLo

I'm liking the LyLo instead of the loss... just saying.

VOTE: No Lynch

[Chrimi]

Assuming scum lynch today:
Day 3 ends: 8 people (1 scum, 7 town)
Night 3 ends: 7 people (1 scum, 6 town)
Day 5: Nowhere near LyLo

See?

[Sando]

Pretty confident PM is the last scum.

Chrimi-scum is ensuring instant loss if he gets his way and lynches his partner Thomith
RD-scum is ensuring instant loss if she gets her way and I investigate here (lynch me after I claim Thomith/RD to confirm me as cop, lynch Thomith and RD)
I've eliminated everyone else as a scum other than PM and know Thomith is scum