Mini 1336 - Revolution Mafia Game Over!

[Llamarble]

Unvote

Bah, I really wanted to hear from HC by now.
Anyway, if he's town HE has role information, so we're certainly not lynching him without him talking.

I used a software activity detector on him today and found out that he used a software activity detector N1.
This makes him more likely to be scum because it's unlikely town started with more than a couple of abilities, whereas scum probably started with about 2.
So P(did something | scum) is higher than P(did something | town) by a good margin which by Bayes rule makes him more likely scum.
I also find it more symmetric and modoutguessappealing that scum would start with a detector (rolecop is a better power for scum anyway) and we might get one from the mission. And the dude is just scummy.

I rolled out this information the way I did because I think the software activity detector isn't really useful for anything other than generating reads, which hopefully this exercise has done. I do think HC is a good lynch for today but this is not a 1v1, and I found how eager Fate / others seemed to be to make it into one unsettling.

I'll be able to read some more tomorrow.

[SpyreX]

Ohhhh man.

Sorry fate I doubted you.

[implosion]

oh god llamarble just cited bayes rule in a mafia game

i don't even know how to respond to that dude

[Llamarble]

You both have nothing more useful than that to say?
Great.

[implosion]

Nope. Here's what your post pretty much looks like:

[kuribo]

Ohhhh man.

Sorry fate I doubted you.

yeah, and here I was thinking my initial scumread on Marble was just my reads being shit as always

the fucking fact that HC ghosted into nothingness as he was lynched? that tells me two things:

1) he had no intention of coming back here for fear of slipping up
2) Marble just saved his sorry ass from lynch

[kuribo]

Ohhhh man.

Sorry fate I doubted you.

And if we're claiming what we have, I got a shoe phone last night. Lets me send or receive a total of three messages. (Not three each)

I told Grey I'd use one of those charges to allow Fate to message me today, but it never occurred to me to ask the mod if he'd be informed that he had that ability.

[kuribo]

oh, and I was told that there may be consequences if I dilly-dallied about using it.

[SpyreX]

I'm on a phone so you're not getting a real post but jesus the magnitude of that letdown is way more than an accident

[kuribo]

Eh, I kinda figured, what the hell am I gonna use it for?

There's nothing I'd say to any of you that I can't really say here anyway

[SpyreX]

Not youuuuu marble

[kuribo]

yeah, look at what he said:

HE FINDS HC SCUMMY BUT HE WANTS TO GIVE HIM A CHANCE TO TALK AND IS WILLING TO FORESTALL THIS LYNCH

do scum have daytalk in this? is marble coaching him in the QT?

[kuribo]

yeah i'm calling bullshit
he also says he has ROLE RELATED INFORMATION that points to him being scum


and he SAVES HIS NECK?

[Llamarble]

oh, and I was told that there may be consequences if I dilly-dallied about using it.

Yeah this seems to be common to all the things.

I said my vote was motivated by role information.
Then I clarified what this information was.

But if you're accusing me of being buddies with HC, I don't have any particular objection to lynching HC and your #1 has certainly crossed my mind while I was wondering if he was trying to wait out my patience before claiming to avoid getting caught, but meh. He did use an information role though, so letting him die without talking is a bad idea.

[kuribo]

you're talking about him using the exact same ability you used on him, right?

[kuribo]

yeah I'm not so sure I want marble on our little nightly outting tonight

[Llamarble]

Yes.
Maybe he has a result like "FATE USED THE EVIL MACHINE" or something along those lines.

Also I am BLAZINGLY obvtown at this point.

[SpyreX]

No. Hate chicken.

We all stay

I hate I'm soo obvtown the most.

Enough that if its a 3 person lylo all someone would have to do is quote that and my palms would caress that axe

[Llamarble]

Do you really think that I cooked up 'I got my supplies as a result of the mission' and then played D2 the way I have so far?
The mission succeeded and D1 I massposted and looked for scum harder than anybody. My townmeta is BLATANTLY different from my scummeta. Like to a truthtell level. And however much you may hate people saying they're obvtown, the people who do are usually town.

[Llamarble]

I feel very confident about Kuribo town for his off the cuff 'Oh I got an item from mission success too,' by the way.

[Haschel Cedricson]

Prod received. Reading now.

Also, I see this at the top of the page:

I used a software activity detector on him today and found out that he used a software activity detector N1.

I did indeed use a Software Activity Detector last night, targeting Llamarble. Llamarble did not use any software Day or Night 1.

[kuribo]

wait, so you're directly counterclaiming him?

[kuribo]

YOU JUST FUCKING CONFIRMED THAT HE KNEW FOR A FACT YOU USED THAT ABILITY

AND YOU'RE CLAIMING THAT YOUR ABILITY SAID THAT HE DIDN'T?!


CAN WE LYNCH THIS IDIOT NOW?!

[Haschel Cedricson]

Llamarble said he used his software activity detector TODAY. I used mine LAST NIGHT. Learn to read.

Also, in hilariously-bad-timing news, my wife just got home and told me that we are returning some pants to the store and for some reason this is non-negotiable. I will finish getting caught up when we get back.

[Llamarble]

Vijay your analysis of us being different alignments makes no sense. Just saying.

This. Actually, mathematically speaking, you can

never

identify two people as being different alignments more strongly than you can identify one of their alignments on its own. For instance, say that you're 70% sure that X is town and 60% sure that Y is scum. Then the probability that they have differing alignments is (.7*.6)+(.4*.3) = 54%. More than that, it's logically provable that there are no "they have different alignments" tells (that is, there's no reliable way to say 'i'm X% sure that these two players have different alignments' without saying how likely you think each of them are to be each alignment. Basically, scumhunting ought to start on the individual scale.

Also, criticizing vijay for voting me without calling me scum is plain reaching. Voting post-RVS in and of itself is a declaration of suspicion.

No.

Saying "I just feel BB and implosion have different alignments" is unacceptable.

It has exactly as much merit as the statement "I feel an asteroid with mass at least 7 kg will hit the earth some time between 6.04 and 6.05 million years from now."

This is

regardless

of how you ascertained your answer.

I'm not saying this just because i like to argue logic - if we allow people to use "I think one of x and y is scum" as an argument, it allows scum to chain-push two people without any accountability until they both flip town. Essentially, it gives them a free ride for two days (or more than that if both the targets stay alive longer) by just saying "well one of them is scum, one flipped town, let's lynch the other now."

Unsound conclusions can never have sound reasoning. I don't even need to know what your reasoning is to know that it's wrong. Even if one out of me and BB winds up being scum,

your reasoning is still wrong.

Well he is correct that I didn't do anything D1 or N1. (the detector provides information about the current and previous phase)
I didn't really expect him to lie about that though.