Open 403 - Donner Party (Game Over)

[Tierce]

Votecount 3.1

Not voting

(5) - Phillammon, Guy_Named_Riggs, Mortontfrh, scotmany12, Shadoweh


Shadoweh is V/LA until Wednesday (June 13th).

With 5 alive, it takes 3 votes to lynch.

The deadline is June 25 at 2:40 AM GMT (DST). Countdown to deadline: (expired on 2012-06-25 02:00:00)

[Phillammon]

There are multiple possible cases for what could have happened, actually:
Vig died N1
SK was targetted by someone N2
Roleblocker hit Vig or Scum N2
SK RB'd both N1 and N2
2 Kills targetted the same person N2

[Phillammon]

Massclaim may well be a good plan, yeah.

[scotmany12]

There are multiple possible cases for what could have happened, actually:
Vig died N1
SK was targetted by someone N2
Roleblocker hit Vig or Scum N2
SK RB'd both N1 and N2
2 Kills targetted the same person N2

Vig could have simply not submitted a kill as well. A lot of possibilities.

If we are doing a massclaim, the gunsmith (if he is still alive) should claim first. I am, however, not entirely convinced we should do a massclaim.

[Mortontfrh]

tell me then, what else could be the case?

We are on day 3 and you still don't know the set up. What the fuck have you been doing for the past 3 days? I'm honestly confused...Like...What in the actual fuck?

Assuming 2 anti-town factions are still here, its lylo for town.
I propose a mass claim.

If it's LyLo how is mass claiming going to benefit us at all? No one is actually going to believe any claims at all, the only thing claiming could be good for at this point is if we aren't actually in LyLo and we have a chance to kill off a counter claim tomorrow.

[Guy_Named_Riggs]

Its still a good thing to try and claim. Using the claims, we can narrow down whos town and who isnt

There are multiple possible cases for what could have happened, actually:
Vig died N1
SK was targetted by someone N2
Roleblocker hit Vig or Scum N2
SK RB'd both N1 and N2
2 Kills targetted the same person N2

Hmmm, alright. I wasn't thinking there I guess...

[Phillammon]

Okay then. I have one question, in that case.

Are you the dietician?

If we're massclaiming anyway, it won't matter whether you answer this, but there is method in my asking this question specifically.

[Guy_Named_Riggs]

No. I'm not

[Mortontfrh]

Its still a good thing to try and claim. Using the claims, we can narrow down whos town and who isnt

Explain to me how you're planning on narrowing down whos town and who isn't with mass claiming.

[Guy_Named_Riggs]

Roles. The Roles people claim can help narrow down whos who. And yes, I see a flaw in this (I'll explain the flaw after we claim though).
I still think its the best course of action to go with.
What do you have agaisnt mass claiming?

[Mortontfrh]

I don't care if we mass claim or not, i'm just not going to sit here deluding myself as if it's actually going to progress this game any further. No one is going to believe a single claim at this point, so claiming is pretty irrelevant.

[Phillammon]

It doesn't matter. Because by a simple logical leap, he's scum. He's not in it to find town.

Of the two scenarios he presented as possibilities, one wasn't a viable explanation-saying that a scum member was killed N1. This to me says that you were trying to make it look like you were unsure of yourself, rather than that you were safe in the knowledge that your explanation was correct. If you were the dietician, you could have known that by checking our vigilante Night 1 and coming up positive, as the death cannot have been the SK due to the one shot NK immunity, and cannot have been the mafia or there'd have been a third kill today, according to your attempted explanation. However, by your own claim, you aren't the dietician. This tells me that the only way that you could know that the vigilante died N1 is by your having eaten him.

Of course, this will look mighty stupid if someone claims vigilante, but I'm fairly sure we have you bang to rights.

PEdit: Gives scum too much to work with, for too little benefit, in case it's not lylo.
PEdit2: Point.

[Guy_Named_Riggs]

??? interesting
This means that one of the people missing from Night 1 was either scum or a SK

I really think this is a scum slip knowing that the Vig was shot.

Just saw this and realized. I never said the vig was shot. I don't even know if the vig is alive right now. I'm only fairly certain that one of the killing roles is out (shit. just realized that the only way this could happen is vig....damn).
Okay then... Vig died N1 this can be determined by
3 shots N1 then 2 N2
If scum died N1, scum kill would still be present N2
SK is 1 shot NK immune, so if SK is dead, it happened N2

This is assuming all actions were sent in.

Some more assuming, and we get one of these cases right now

2-1-2 (2 scum, 1 SK, 2 town)
1-1-3 (1 scum, 1 Sk, 3 town)
2-0-3 (2 scum, 0 SK, 3 town)
0-1-4 (0 scum, 1 SK, 4 town)

the last scenario would be nice, but I doubt that happened.
However, the first 3 scenarios means it lylo for town. If we don't lynch scum or SK today, we lose. Optimal play would be lynching scum in case we are in scenario 3 with no SK.

If we no lynch, max of 2 kills occur during the night leaving us at

1-0-2 (1 scum, 0 SK, 2 town)
0-1-2 (0 scum, 1 SK, 2 town)
2-1-0 (2 scum, 1 SK, 0 town)
1-1-1 (1 scum, 1 SK, 1 town)
0-1-3 (0 scum, 1 SK, 3 town)

I think I got all the cases down...

3 and 4 scenrios spell end for town win
1 and 2 are lylo again
5 is mylo

The best course of action is to lynch correctly today. We shouldn't rush it either.

[Phillammon]

SKs gotta be alive due to the NK proofing, so it's either option 1,2, or 3.

Also, there could be three kills tonight if the SK, Vig, and at least 1 mafioso lives, and it was an RB or an SK target that caused 2 kills last night. So you're right, we do have to be careful here. FoSs only, for now.

[Shadoweh]

It doesn't matter. Because by a simple logical leap, he's scum. He's not in it to find town.

Of the two scenarios he presented as possibilities, one wasn't a viable explanation-saying that a scum member was killed N1. This to me says that you were trying to make it look like you were unsure of yourself, rather than that you were safe in the knowledge that your explanation was correct.

OR

He has no clue what's going on, and gave an explanation that wasn't viable because he doesn't know what is
because he's probably town
holy shit i am the greatest

Stop trying to lynch the obvious mislynch holy fuck

[Mortontfrh]

I don't think it's that convincing of a scum slip considering their night kills aren't revealed either, but I still think there's a decent chance that GNR's #324 was a slip of having too much knowledge.

His ignorant play can only be extended for so long, I gave him the benefit of the doubt the first couple of days but things like not knowing the set up on D3 can't be overlooked.

[Guy_Named_Riggs]

What about the post says I have too much information?

[Mortontfrh]

Because there is no way that you could have known this was true unless you had some additional information:

This means that one of the people missing from Night 1 was either scum or a SK

[Guy_Named_Riggs]

I see your point, but two things
1. I had forgotten there was a vig
2. I do like to remain optimistic

[Mortontfrh]

I think that there is a higher chance of you having additional information and making a post forgetting that the Town doesn't know what you know than the chance of you being Town and not knowing or "Forgetting" the set up on D3.

[scotmany12]

That is quite a stretch from both Mort and Phil. Not feeling good about either of them right now.

[Shadoweh]

If I fakeclaim dietician will you all finally lynch scotmany like I wanted yesterday?
If so I am totes the dietician and shit.

##Vote: scotmany12

Mort, you already figured out GNR is teh townie earlier. Don't let his continued flailing confuse you. Mort is pretty obv obv town, GNR is super high school level flailtown, Philamon is being all try hard townie and Elmo... uhm, well I'm not sure about him because he doesn't seem to be posting! But town slips are town more often then not. Honestly they're too much trouble to fake, every time I've accidentally done it people vote me for 'faking it for town cred'. Is it really so hard to believe townies slip because they're town? (In before everyone is scum). Town tells can be faked by loner third parties though.

Mr. Scot wants us to continue to flail in insecurities. I guess he ran out of cases after Glork died since his contributions have been 'and Glork said'. I'm a Vanilla Townie. Everyone should claim now if we want a chance at figuring any of the remaining nonsense out. It's true that claims can't be taken without a salt lick, but things have a way of outting themselves. I'd rather play with faith that we can still pull this off.

[scotmany12]

I have no idea what you are saying about me wanting us to flail around in insecurities. How do you get that impression? Your case is weak if it basically comes down to "he followed glork." First, I agreed with Glork during the first day. I didn't find him scummy, and have no problem agreeing with one of the best scumhunters this site has seen. During the second day, the only thing i agreed with him on was that the Glork dying n1 or scum thing was no longer a meta, which is true.

Please, if you are so convinced that I'm scum, then actually make a case. You have so far presented nothing as to why I am scum. Your full of it. You lynch me and you get rid of an important part of the town.

You claiming right there was incredibly stupid. We all haven't agreed to a massclaim yet.

[Shadoweh]

/care. I am stating my opinion in a way that induces people following it. No turning back baby! If you're important tell me how. It's scummy because one of the most common tactics for scum is to latch onto that 'best scumhuntar evar' like a lifeboat and ride him to safety until he's too townie to live.

[Shadoweh]

Oh hey I wonder if Elmo isn't posting because he's dead. GOOD JOB SHADOWEH