Mini 1344: Murder on the HMS Regalia - Game Over

[Espeonage]

Gut feelings really wont get you far

. If you are going to vote for me, you'd better put a valid case on me, and also, I expect others to respond as well. I don't want to get lynched without my flip telling town who is likely mafia and who is not. I am trying to get information from Mala and Espeonage so as to better judge what to do after they flip. As far as I can tell, both are incompatible as mafia, I find it unlikely that scum would defend scum this early in the game.

However, If Espeonage is lynched and he flips Town. Mala is going to come out and say "See, guys, I told you that he was town", convincing several of you that she is town.

She says that she buddies up with experience players, and that that has gotten her lynched before. She could be town making this mistake, or Scum setting up the above scenario.

The thing is that, I have not heard an argument against me from those voting for me, and in turn I have given a valid argument for those I am voting for (And I admit that my logic might be wrong, but I need to hear a valid reason why it is wrong).

@Espeonage, Ser Arthur, and Malakitten:
Can you give me a detailed reasoning why you are voting? It would be nice if you could include a second suspicion and Explain why.

Bolded is the most incorrect thing you have said all game. My sig speaks the truth, learn it.
As for your question: Nope, that would ruin half the fun. There's a case there, currently I'm waiting to see if you're going to continue on this path or if you're going to put your head down and think. Currently you're failing pretty bad and coming across as information gathering for how to make yourself look more town now that people are voting for you.

[Espeonage]

Oh, I just read the word "detailed". No, I can't really give you a detailed explanation. It just your posts seem to be aimed at AtE and gaining the favors of the crowd, and trying to make yourself look good while at the same time soft-push a mislynch.

I see were you are getting at. I do not think I am using AtE to gain the favor of the crowds. I am using logic to gain the favor of the crowds. I am not soft pushing a mislynch because we do not know if it's a mislynch. You should use that argument after the fact. At this point your argument just looks like a Straw man.

This post made me laugh

[Espeonage]

@D3f3nd3r:

You voted Espeonage during RVS and kept quite while his wagon got as high as L-1 without any justification other than his self-quarantine. This seems like a pretty weak point, at least compared to what else was said. Why would it be a scum-slip to self-quarantine? How would this help scum at all? Further, why do you think whatever scum-motivation Espeonage has for wanting to be jailed is more likely than the town motivation?

@Espeonage:

In #149, why did you ask drmyshotgun specifically if he wanted to push a guille2015 wagon?

1. For alliteration
2. At that point shotgun was one of the few with their head screwed on.

What was the point of that post?

Letting you know that unless something changes then I'll be coming down hard on you. You're only saved by the fact that guille is even worse.

How is this warning pro-town? I can see this as an attempt at message-passing or a catch-22 (if he posts more, "He's only doing it to look town after I called him out on it" or "See? I told you he was bad" if he doesn't); I can't see it as useful scumhunting. Wouldn't it be better to make note of it, file it away, and bring it up tomorrow if his play hasn't changed?

Further, you haven't really explained your case on guille2015. You may think its terribly obvious, but even if it is, it still helps us to have your opinion on record rather than just vaguely alluded to. If you are scum, forcing you to have backed, justified reads is one of our bests means of catching you, so please share.

Ok, today I will teach you about Espe. Espe likes to show people he doesn't like their play, not tell them why, wait for them to keep doing it, and in the last few irl days of the day reveal why I didn't like them in the first place and how they have kept doing it and doing it throughout. This lets me have a stronger case after the initial suspicion which is one of the perks of not playing all your cards at once as well as it means I get to skip the momentum on the game thus making it easier to get the lynches I want because I think I'm better than everyone else despite the fact that I'm quite likely not. I will admit it works much better in newbie games and it makes ICs tear their hair out.

@ catch-22: Now that was kinda a setting myself up for a case later however I clearly explained myself citing his three post iso. Considering every game post has been pretty much a one liner with a new vote I figured I'd give that a chance to change. And no, because it's way to weak a thing to try and say someone is scum for. It was meant as a warning more than a threat. Not to say the threat isn't there, just that it's not the primary function of the post.

I don't like sharing before I have to. It ruins my whole playstyle. I'll admit, I'm terrible at my townplay. I catch scum, but have a terribly hard time backing up my reads because I rarely understand them. So I pick out one thing that is scummy on who I think is scum and I make a weak vote for it. Then as I see everything else play out that usually becomes a stronger case and I flesh out why I felt that way about them. I trust my gut as far as it stays a gut read. I won't follow my gut reads to a lynch unless I feel they are scum the whole way. I've been lynched ALOT of times for trying to derail a wagon I pushed for ages right before lynch because I've had an epiphany that they aren't actually scum. Every single time I've tried to derail my own wagon it has been on someone that eventually flipped town, (usually after my lynch lol)

[Espeonage]

EBWOP I answered a little bit in bold in your quote. in the above post

[guille2015]

@Mod: You can copy my post 125 into 124, which I believe is mine, to prevent confusion.

Mod ~ Done.

[guille2015]

I'm basically saying.. Scum has a shot to go after a PR with the first NK, but sometimes they don't like the confirmed town because they can be useful in scum hunting. Honestly, it depends on the scum team to want to go after a PR or to take someone who has claimed. Those who claim are more likely not to lie because lying when you're an innocent isn't the best way to go about things.

Espon can scum hunt and explain why he feels who and who is scum. He might not have the power to attempt to hit scum with a role, but he has the power to vote and convince us to help search. I'm sorry, but I believe that's more helpful then someone who just lurks.

also, to make sure I understand you, you are saying you believe Espeonage's claim now BECAUSE he voted quarantine himself?

That's not the exact reason that I believe his claim. If he was scum with a PR why on earth would a scum self quarantine? What would the scum get out of that? If Espon was lying about VT and actually scum, it would because he would most likely be the more powerful 'scum role' and I don't think the greatest scum move in the world would quarantine a role.

First off, a confirmed town is somebody that, through mechanics in the game, has been confirmed town. You normally do not have this on day 1. At best you can have a likely town, based on play style and assumptions, and also from agreement of most of the players in the game. This, however, does not guarantee that the player is Town.

I am questioning, why you think Espeonage is Town. You either have Tunnel Vision or you know as a fact that he is town. Place close attention to your argument. What if he is a Goon mafia? Claiming early on brings attention to the player, the most powerful 'scum role' should not want that attention. Self quarantining would help scum gather support.

The whole thing started, with me disagreeing about the proposed method to use the quarantine, which I thought was not the right idea. Guille vs Espionage, until something (Which I still don't know what) made Esp vote for me. That's when I really got aggressive against Esp. Then I noticed Mala buddying up with Esp. Made me rethink my aggression. The more you try to defend, the more I start thinking that you are trying to get out of a hole. I am more suspicious of Malakitten than I am of Espeonage.

[Phillammon]

Naïveté I could appreciate from a player who's new to mafia. Mala is not new to mafia. As such, the meta makes me more suspicious of mala, even though I can't figure out *which* player malakittens is...

[guille2015]

I see were you are getting at. I do not think I am using AtE to gain the favor of the crowds. I am using logic to gain the favor of the crowds. I am not soft pushing a mislynch because we do not know if it's a mislynch. You should use that argument after the fact. At this point your argument just looks like a Straw man.

So we should wait AFTER a mislynch to say someone is scummy for pushing the lynch, when we can save a townie from getting lynched by analyzing how people are pushing on certain people. Even before a flip, we can still learn a lot about how people are pushing and on who they're pushing.

Short answer. Yes.
Again, I repeat, how do you know that a Lynch is going to be a mislynch? If it's obvious that the player is town, then the lynch would not happen. Mostly because the majority of the players are town and they too would be pushing the lynch. Before the flip, you can only speculate what could happen.
Say, for example: If Espeonage Flips Town, then Malakitten(buddying) and Guille(for pushing the Lynch, according to Ser Arthur) might be mafia. But they are probably not Mafia together. If afterwards, Guille flips Town, then Ser Arthur is mafia for his chainsaw defense. MalaKitten would get lynched in the interim.
But we don't know this until we get a lynch.

[guille2015]

@Espeonage: I get what you are doing. It kinda makes sense, but I can see why you get lynched because of that. It doesn't smell like good play, but it is still consistent. I find no inconsistency in your play at the moment. This is why switched my vote to Malakitten which I think is scummier than you. If she would flip scum, then I'd be more convince that you are town. I look forward for you explaining why I am scummy.

[PeregrineV]

@Kittens- I think you were missing the point, but it's been explained to you fairly well. At this point, I attribute it mostly to new site meta where the game may be the same, but some things are done differently. Which newbie game did you play onsite?

Generally, in order to deny information to scum as much as possible, claiming is only done under certain circumstances, depending on the role.

Espeonage claiming and his reason for it were bad. If he is not killed at night, he can claim "I'm VT, why would scum bother?". That may be true, or he could be scum that isn't going to kill himself. He's now injected more doubt beyond his actual play as to his alignment. And it doesn't really affect scum, since he is either scum or not, but it does affect us, since we are trying to figure out if he is town or scum.

[Ser Arthur Dayne]

Espeonage claiming and his reason for it were bad.

Okay, fine. His claim was bad and his reasons were bad. That doesn't automatically = Esp is scum. He just had a different idea on how to start off this game. And from what Esp has been saying, he could be genuinely believing what he is saying. Have you considered his POV coming from a town with a different mindset on how to work the game in the beginning?

[PeregrineV]

Right now, looking at ISOs, Brundibar and Phillamon seem to be lacking the most.

Since Brund is out,

Vote: Phillamon

For utter lack of scumhunting in pretty much any form.

pedit-@Dayne- I'm trying to do that. I've decided to leave it for now, and look for scum elsewhere, but he gets a permanent until something changes that.

[Phillammon]

My apologies. I've been having to post less due to exams and can't spend enormous amounts of time putting together posts, hence the less scumhunting, but my final exam is tomorrow. For now, I have a few questions to ask.
@Mala: In the link you gave, what username were you using? Malakittens wasn't part of that game.
@Espe: What are your knee-jerk reactions to guile and trollie, and would you be willing to give any explanation on the latter?

In reaction to Sword, on Malakittens I'm very suspicious. The claimed meta seems at odds with anything I could find there, or with a fair bit of the play we've seen here. Combined with the weird site to site meta stuff, I'm suspicious, but the volume of posting and thus useful discussion, if not particularly scumhunting, is handy. 48 has my hackles u immediately on a quick glane through the ISO.

Espe I'm willing to accept the mysterious aspect from, but I don't like how the most recent self meta could easily be construed as "I shift my vote to the best wagon then say I suspected them all along at the last minute", if I've interpreted it correctly. Aside from that, I'm going to postpone a solid judgment until I know whether this is genuinely town-Espe, but I'll give benefit of the doubt for now.

[Malakittens]

I'm Riss_, Sorry, thought I said that in a previous post.

[Malakittens]

Btw around page 152 is where I replaced in. >.>

[D3f3nd3r]

@D3f3nd3r:

You voted Espeonage during RVS and kept quite while his wagon got as high as L-1 without any justification other than his self-quarantine. This seems like a pretty weak point, at least compared to what else was said. Why would it be a scum-slip to self-quarantine? How would this help scum at all? Further, why do you think whatever scum-motivation Espeonage has for wanting to be jailed is more likely than the town motivation?

I made it very clear in 86 that Self-Quarantine is Obvscum.

Scum would not be hurt if someone were public-lynched (they give the NK to another), and town were (The scum can't die through vig-kill)

Vigs would become less useful if a townie is ruled out.

Of course, the claim in the very beginning was somewhat scummy, but this is the main reason.

[image]

@D3f3nd3r:

In 86 you said that you felt self-quarantine is obvscum, but you didn't explain why, hence my question.

I'm not sure why you think a vig would be less useful if a townie is ruled out, especially if we use the quarantine as some people are suggesting to protect someone who seems town (and is therefore an unlikely vig target). Further, it seems that your entire analysis is built on the assumption that we have a vigilante and, moreover, that Espeonage is scum who somehow knows we have a vigilante and is trying to avoid being targeted tonight. Is that correct?

[D3f3nd3r]

I'm assuming we have a vig because it seems like it would be viable for a game with quarantine.

[Espeonage]

@Espe: What are your knee-jerk reactions to guile and trollie, and would you be willing to give any explanation on the latter?

Guille: Mainly seems scum from a bunch of little things which may or may not be due to alignment or personal playstyle.
Trollie: Terrible, terrible flopping.

[image]

There's a very large difference between something being viable and being so sure of its existence that you'd be willing to lynch based on it. But even worse, you have assumed that it is so certain that Espeonage must have reached the same conclusion of you and must see it as the primary motivation for his actions.

This comes across as an extremely weak attempt to justify your vote on Espeonage especially given that the wagon reached L-1. Together with the fact that you have done little to no scum-hunting and have tunnelled Espeonage for the entire game (you don't seem to have mentioned anyone else) I feel comfortable with a

Vote: D3f3nd3r

.

[RichardGHP]

Seventh Vote Count of Day 1

Lynch:

[3] Espeonage - [D3f3nd3r, sword_of_omens, TheTrollie]
[2] TheTrollie - [brundibar, Malakittens]
[2] guille2015 - [Espeonage, Ser Arthur Dayne]
[3] Malakittens - [drmyshotgun, BK201, guille2015]
[1] Phillammon - [PeregrineV]
[1] D3f3nd3r - [image]

[1] Not Voting - [Phillammon]

Quarantine:

[4] Espeonage - [drmyshotgun, Espeonage, Malakittens, guille2015]
[1] TheTrollie - [BK201]
[2] sword_of_omens - [PeregrineV, Ser Arthur Dayne]

[6] Not Voting - [brundibar, TheTrollie, sword_of_omens, image, D3f3nd3r, Phillammon]

V/LA: brundibar, until June 17

With 13 alive, it takes 7 to lynch and 7 to quarantine.
Deadline for this day is June 23, 1630h UTC+12. You have just under eight days.

[Phillammon]

@Mod: I unvoted an unquarantined.

Fixed ~ Mod.

[Espeonage]

There's a very large difference between something being viable and being so sure of its existence that you'd be willing to lynch based on it. But even worse, you have assumed that it is so certain that Espeonage must have reached the same conclusion of you and must see it as the primary motivation for his actions.

This comes across as an extremely weak attempt to justify your vote on Espeonage especially given that the wagon reached L-1. Together with the fact that you have done little to no scum-hunting and have tunnelled Espeonage for the entire game (you don't seem to have mentioned anyone else) I feel comfortable with a

Vote: D3f3nd3r

.

He's town bro.

[BK201]

I'm gonna make it clear that Espeonage self-quarantining page 3 or 4 or something is a pretty bad scumslip.

How is doing that a scumslip? Just b/c the possibility of a vig?

@Mala

No offense but self-meta isn't worth much to me.

@Espe

It's time you explain your read on Guile, I'm not following.

[Espeonage]

Remind me of this post after the first scumflip.