[REVIEW] Open Setup Reviews

[Hoopla]

Alright, going to add Diffusion of Power and Switch to the wiki with the following changes:

I think a much better mechanic is the Mafia having control of the switches while the relevant mafiosi is alive, but the SK instead of vetoing the switches it wants off, simply reverses the state of the switches that the scumteam leaves them in.

SK pregame gets to choose one of these perks:

1) Investigation Immunity AND Vig Immunity
2) Mafia NK Immunity

Okay. I've come up with a unintrusive if inelegant change to Diffusion of Power that should remove mass claim's most meaningful benefit - tell the scum how many Cops and Docs there are. That way the 5-8 split should always be avoided; the town can gain no information from timing of claims (e.g. if a claim makes for a 7-5 split, that claim would look townie otherwise); scum can even all claim the same role if there are only 4 of those which means the only way for anyone to be cleared by set-up logic is if the town lynches 2 scum from a group of 6.

Just flipping Doc/Cop instead of Nx Doc/Nx Cop prevents hypocopping by the bye.

[Hoopla]

Fight or Flight has been tried for the first time and ought to be properly reviewed. It's possible that it might be in the town's interests to orchestrate night actions in some way - perhaps everyone choosing to commute N1, or not commute N1. I received a PM from Regfan about it when it was playing:

Spoiler: Regfan's message

I'm just tossing around with ideas but I think there's a way to not break persay but increase the chances town win the setup to the point that it's not exactly fair. I'm thinking along the lines of the following;

Town scumhunt D1. Select 2 agreed upon scummy targets. Call them 1 and 2. 1 and 2 shoot each other. All townies flip a coin, if heads commute, if tails don't commute. No other townies other than 1/2 shoot.

If 1 or 2 are scum and commute they just confirm themselves as mafia the following day meaning they wouldn't do that and shooting elsewhere while may kill a town play also runs the risk of them being commuted and losing their kill. This means scum are forced into shooting the person that was selected for them and biting the bullet. So lets say end of N1 1 and 2 are dead.

If one of 1 and 2 are scum then it's 5 alive, 4 town and 1 scum. Scumhunt again. (Not sure whether lynching or NLing is the better move here, I think they end up being roughly equal) but for the sake of NL again. Lets say 3, 4 and 5 are the people FoS"ed (Town only need to find 2 agreed upon town reads call them 6 and 7). 3 shoots 4, 4 shoots 5, 5 shoots 3. If either of them deviate from the plan they confirm themselves as scum, same goes if they commute. If scum is one of them they lose. If scum is one of 6 or 7 they're still alive the next day both holding a vig shot and a possible commute (Depends on their actions previous night) where town can still win.

If neither of 1 or 2 are scum can can either take their hand at shooting hoping they shoot a non-commuted townie and winning the game but risking hitting a commuted townie, loosing their vig shot and putting themseles in a weak position. D2, town would lynch and organize vig shots ect.

Spoiler: And my response

If there is one or two scum in the two scummiest slots, then the scum commutes if one, or they consider shooting other townies if both. This confirms one of the two as scum the next day when neither of the two slots die, but if you lynch scum that day, you have no way of knowing if the other is scum as well. If you lynch the townie first in a 1-1 situation, the now confirmed-scum gets a free shot that night that could take the game down to 2:4 or 2:3 the next day (or 1:3/1:4 if town wants to burn a vig shot, but that in turn exposes them to getting shot by the confirmed scum).

The risk of this plan is getting two townies in those two slots. You're then left with 2:3 and no time to set up another two slots to test. You can no-lynch, but again, if two scum is there, they shoot elsewhere and probably win. If one scum is there, it commutes, while the other shoots, hoping to bring it down to 2:2, so town can't get a majority the next day.

The town probably breaks the game or comes close to it in the first scenarios, but it's offset by the risk of picking two townies, which will probably lose the game. This is the same metric that operates in other 7p games - you mislynch on D1 and D2 (first two picks being townie), you probably lose. The difference is, you're picking those two slots without any information on D1, as opposed to one at a time.

The setup definitely has issues and needs to be thought out more - even if this plan doesn't break it, I think it's possible for other strategies to exist.

Thinking about it more, I don't think Regfan's strategy is likely to more beneficial than playing the setup with townies making informed choices. I would like some more opinions about it.

[mykonian]

The base problem with regfan's plan is he's missing the lynch, I think. It's the only surefire kill people have, and plans of crosskilling tend to get ruined by scum commuting, leaving you with a 50% shot afterwards, which isn't a terrible improvement of a usual day, and runs the risk of hitting two townies at which point town gets set back majorly.

Lets see. If you extend regfans idea to three people shooting groups you get a 100% information return. If all die, too bad, they were townies who all shot. If someone commutes, that means two survive, of which one has to be a townie who didn't get shot because scum commuted, and the commuting scum.

You can't lynch day one and then make two circles of three, that wins the game for scum.

If you make one group, if all are town, you lost the game (20% chance).
If one is scum, you lose one townie there, and have a 100% lynch day 2 if scum chooses to commute (60% chance)
If there are two scum, same as the above, 100% lynch day 2. (20% again)

All other townies which aren't in that group of 3 commute, leaving day 2 with a 80% chance to lynch scum and 20% of insta lose. I think that's in town's favor, as losing by lynches is easier then that 20%, I think.

I could go on telling you in that case night two wouldn't be bad for town with just one scum kill there and 3 townies left, bringing the game to a 3p lylo with scum's commute still in and the one of the confirmed townie as well, but knowing all this from reading this post,

scum won't commute when he knows he's being shot

Which means in that same scheme, you lose in 20% of the cases, in about 60% of the cases three people die night 1, 1 scum and 2 townies and in about 20% of the cases one person dies and scum is trying to wifom you (hence the "about" 20% and the "about" 60%, as wifom tells you scum will have to choose suboptimal in the 60% scenario sometimes to make it in the 20% case, which would otherwise always lose them the game since you'd know both scum without wifom)

In the 60% case, which is all that changed because of scum's response, day 2 is a 3p lylo, with scum still having both one shots and town having two vig shots, meaning it has to be a straight up lynch as you can't beat the scum at night with any certainty. 33% win ratio is still better then doing nothing as town, as a mountainous 7p with a mislynch day one only gives you a 13% chance of winning.



If you did lynch scum day one, and you do the same, you have a 50% chance of victory, and a 50% chance of a 3p lylo (which adds to 66% for town). If you let scum shoot you once (which he could do at any night, which he wants to do the night when he wins, affected by WIFOM since town saves it commute for that night.) that leads to a best case scenario (where he shoots right away) of 60% and a worst case (where he shoots the night he wins) of 50%. If town manages to commute his shot you are back at 66%, making the breaking strategy slightly better then the strategy of simply not shooting as town.

You improve a little on the not shooting strategy by shooting controlledly as town at night, as a vigs chances are a little higher if the game was truely random (since he won't shoot himself), but tbh, I think that's a point where the assumption of randomness isn't good enough anymore to show a difference between strategies, and I don't know if it would pull up the chances of winning above 66% anyway.

[IceGuy]

Thinking of it, there might be a simpler breaking strategy.

You make a list of all players and have one town "designated survivor", i.e. somebody who is almost confirmed town.

In the night, everybody shoots the person below them on the list, except for the person above the designated survivor.

Scum has the following possibilities:
Both of them commute - they survive, as well as the two town players below them, and the designated survivor. It's now a 2:3 situation where the scum are known; you lynch one, 1:3, all town commutes the next night, still 1:3, lynch the last one, town wins.
One commutes, one shoots - the shooting player dies and can take either the designated survivor or the person below one of the scums with them. 1:2 situation, scum known, town wins.
Both shoot - they both die, town wins.

As far as I see it, this is a sure-fire strategy as long as both scum players aren't right next to each other, and the designated survivor isn't scum or preceded by a scum player.

[Hoopla]

As far as I see it, this is a sure-fire strategy as long as both scum players aren't right next to each other, and the designated survivor isn't scum or preceded by a scum player.

That's a lot of risk - probably to the point where it's not worth the hassle. You need to gamble the game on a player being town D1 with no flips. Still without information, you need to pick another town player from the group too precede the survivor. I bet it's probably around a coinflip, getting those two players to actually be town, even using rigorous townhunting. Then after all that, you have to avoid dumb luck that scum aren't next to each other on the list.

Come on... you can't say town have better odds than playing it using their own individual faculties.

[IceGuy]

Come on... you can't say town have better odds than playing it using their own individual faculties.

You're right.

(I thought it was a 9p setup, not a 7p.)

[IceGuy]

Joining Forces

1 Sicilian Mafia Goon

1 Calabrian Mafia Goon

1 Jailkeeper
1 Single Goon Cop
9 Vanilla Townies

At first, the Sicilian and the Calabrian Mafia Goons don't know each other, have separate NKs and SK-like win conditions.

At any point, they can indicate to the mod they'd like to "join". When both of them have indicated their desire to join (and they're alive), they'll become Mafia Goons at the beginning of the next Night. That means they'll get a QT with nighttalk, have a factional NK (instead of their separate ones) and their win condition becomes the usual Mafia one.

The Single Goon Cop gets a "guilty" on both Goons, but only up until including the Night they joined; after that, they always get "innocent".

[Magua]

Been a long time since I've been in this thread. =P

Mmmmmm.

Setup just seems annoying.

- Setup is townsided if the scum join forces while the jailkeeper is still alive (compare to say 10v2 Mountainous, this is 11v2 w/ Jailkeeper).
- Setup is *probably* townsided while the scum are separate. Not only do you have the Cop, but the Jailkeeper can be functionally like a cop as well, and if the town lynches scum, see above.
- Setup allows for practically zero scumhunting, certainly zero connections until there's a join.
- If the mafia crosskill, it's almost certainly town win.

I'm not sure what I would recommend changing -- I tend to like my mafia's informed from the beginning and this is about the opposite.

[IceGuy]

- Setup is townsided if the scum join forces while the jailkeeper is still alive (compare to say 10v2 Mountainous, this is 11v2 w/ Jailkeeper).

EV of 2:11 Mountainous is 36.2% according to the Wiki. So together with the JK I'd consider it balanced.

- Setup is *probably* townsided while the scum are separate. Not only do you have the Cop, but the Jailkeeper can be functionally like a cop as well, and if the town lynches scum, see above.

I don't think a 2:11 with cop, JK and double kill is townsided.

- Setup allows for practically zero scumhunting, certainly zero connections until there's a join.

Not zero scumhunting - it's essentially double SK hunting.

- If the mafia crosskill, it's almost certainly town win.

That's true, and is one of the factors that should entice scum to join.

I'm not sure what I would recommend changing -- I tend to like my mafia's informed from the beginning and this is about the opposite.

From what I see you simply don't like the basic premise of the setup.

[Hoopla]

I tend to agree with Magua. I actually like the idea conceptually, but I think in practice, the game would just be annoying in terms of scumhunting.

I think 2:11 with a JK is clearly town-sided, given that the 2:7 newbie game with a JK is producing a 55% winrate for town - it would probably be more if scum didn't have a Role Cop, too. The benefit of double-kills is definitely offset by the chance of crosskills, as well as the Cop role functioning. If I were one of the Goons, getting myself into a situation where I kill the other scum is such a bad position to be in, it really isn't worth the risk of me hitting them or them hitting me. One scum dying, means a Cop result wins the game and the JK becomes super powerful. The town barely needs to do anything to win here. This is what you're risking every night you don't join.

It seems pretty clear to me that the risk of being killed/killing your partner (and even the risk of being lynched and not having a chance for your partner to win for you) is far too great not to join. And if they do, the setup is probably town-sided anyhow.

[callforjudgement]

You could make both scum completely bulletproof, I guess. Crosskilling by mistake is bad enough as it is, and it'd enable one of them to learn the other's identity if there was a kill missing. But I'm still not sure I'd like the setup even with that.

[Hoopla]

On Pick Your Power Redux: I had wanted a PYP game in the Open catalogue for a while and when Ludi requested running one, we decided to do it based on his ideas. Although the game was interrupted by the forum crash, the game was a little flat in parts and I think it could be spiced up with more influential roles. When you have a power heavy game, the natural tendency is to water things down to reduce variance and offer roles that could help either team.

Originally, myself and SpyreX were planning on running PYP X/Y where each role is actually two possible roles, for example:

Night 3 Vig/Vengeful
1-Shot Vig/1-Shot PGO (active)
Cop/1-Shot Redirector
1-Shot Commuter/1-Shot Watcher
Doctor/Roleblocker
Universal Backup/Role Cop
Neighbourizer/Fruit Vendor
Jailkeeper/Tracker

With the previous setup, you can't exactly offer a series of roles only useful for town or only useful for scum, as you only have eight roles to offer. X/Y allows you to cram 16 possible roles that aren't watered down versions into 8 slots, which makes the game more interesting from the outset. Obviously in this setup, if you win a role, you get to pick which one you'd like to be - this setup now allows scum to go for Cop or vice versa without doing it solely to "block". More possible roles also increases variables, which means massclaiming is less profitable, as you don't automatically know which roles will be in the game.

Anyway, I'm asking for opinion on this update to PYP, since Scott Brosius is up soon and wanting to run it.

[Hoopla]

Also, while IceGuy and everyone else is here, Open 391 finished recently, which was the first run of The New Recruit. I think I agree with Rainbow's assessment of the setup (although not as strongly):

Things I want to know

1) How is this setup balanced? Its at best mildly town sided.
2) Why would scum ever recruit? It turns a somewhat difficult win into a very difficult win.
3) Why did Hikari die at all with the hypo result?
4) Why did OOTN NOT die night one?

I really dont think this setup is balanced though, its so town sided its not even funny. The first setup basically is a win for town if they lynch scum in the first day, probably even second day with JK alive. Second setup is just brutal beyond reason for scum to deal with, recruiting was scum mistake number one.

Recruiting is probably is bad move for scum (at least more challenging than the original setup), and if this is so, it removes the main draw from the setup (two relatively equal choices at the beginning of the game) and turns it into a logic puzzle once town figure out the setup they're in.

[IceGuy]

I'm obviously biased towards that the setup is balanced or mildly unbalanced, so I'd like some more people to weigh in.

[callforjudgement]

Anyway, I'm asking for opinion on this update to PYP, since Scott Brosius is up soon and wanting to run it.

Won't town just force a mass slotclaim? Especially for things like the cop slot (which scum cannot reasonably claim to have taken as anything other than a cop).

Also, is this 2:6 or 3:5? A 2:6 version seems townsided with all the power roles flying around, whereas 3:5 starts in mylo, potential lylo if scum have vig shots, and so town won't get to use them, so it's highly scumsided.

[Hoopla]

lso, is this 2:6 or 3:5? A 2:6 version seems townsided with all the power roles flying around, whereas 3:5 starts in mylo, potential lylo if scum have vig shots, and so town won't get to use them, so it's highly scumsided.

It's 3:11, so there is a minimum of 6 VT's with a chance of more.

[callforjudgement]

Oh, right, I forgot it had VTs as well, typically I expect smalltown/pyp to be vanillaless.

[Rainbowdash]

Also, while IceGuy and everyone else is here, Open 391 finished recently, which was the first run of The New Recruit. I think I agree with Rainbow's assessment of the setup (although not as strongly):

Things I want to know

1) How is this setup balanced? Its at best mildly town sided.
2) Why would scum ever recruit? It turns a somewhat difficult win into a very difficult win.
3) Why did Hikari die at all with the hypo result?
4) Why did OOTN NOT die night one?

I really dont think this setup is balanced though, its so town sided its not even funny. The first setup basically is a win for town if they lynch scum in the first day, probably even second day with JK alive. Second setup is just brutal beyond reason for scum to deal with, recruiting was scum mistake number one.

Recruiting is probably is bad move for scum (at least more challenging than the original setup), and if this is so, it removes the main draw from the setup (two relatively equal choices at the beginning of the game) and turns it into a logic puzzle once town figure out the setup they're in.

Well its one of a 10:2 where town has a JK or 9:3 with JK/JK/Cop.

The first one is probably close to balanced given the mountainous phenominon, but has potential to swing hard if scum goes early. The second one I really dont see scum winning many if any of, they rightfully should be picked apart in most plays as this one showed. The D2 scum lynch was benificial, but even with a N1 JK death and the other one claimed... scum got hit by an almost instant forced loss.

The "recruit" punishment is a bit much for scum to overcome, so this (should) be a 10:2 setup with a JK (sounds fun actually). To make it so the recruit means something, town cant be getting as much as they are. Maybe something bizzare like cop/miller/JK against three goons? It needs tweaking to the point where scum should even consider the third member, which is supposed to be the WIFOM aspect of this setup. Its safe to assume that scum would not just shoot themselves in the foot to start the game usually.

Problem with changing second JK to miller would be that in this scenario miller actually should insta-claim and they basically become confirmed town. Cop/Deputy/JK? Dunno.

[IceGuy]

I'm thinking of how to repair The New Recruit.

I think 11:2 with a JK is reasonably balanced - the question is how to balance the 10:3 possibility.

I considered the following:
JK/JK? Probably too swingy.
Hider and similar roles have the problem that they make hypoclaiming a good strategy when scum can't interfere with them.
JK/Tracker? Similar problems to JK/JK
JK/A bunch of 1-shot roles distributed throughout town? Has the disadvantages of telling more townies how many scum there are.

Any other suggestions?

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

I think 11:2 with a JK is reasonably balanced

(It's not.)

[chamber]

11:2 with a doc probably is?

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

That's on the pro-town side of acceptable, I think. Probably works quite well for the intended purpose (given the set-up'll foster paranoia towards good scum players and will mean that sucky scum teams won't play the 2-scum variant).

[chamber]

completely ignoring this specific setup for a moment, I wonder how 2:11 nightless, with the altered mafia win con of town losing once they've lynched 4(5?) town would work.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Probably balanced with the right number but it'll only be more demoralizing than regular mountainous, e.g. with 5 mislynch win condition LyLo could come come to finding one scum among 6.

[chamber]

But all the clear looking people will be alive because they can't get shot. It wont be the typical lylo crowd.