TM2012: Scummies 2011.5 - Let the credits roll!

[DeasVail]

Ok, so everyone else:

I'm strongly suggesting a Reckoner lynch here. Zar has come across as more genuine to me, theam I think is town for reasons I've already stated and I'm a bit unsure on this last one, but I don't think I'm scum either.

[DeasVail]

Reck:

Slandaar wants to know why you didn't pursue Zar Day 2 after he was (according to you) the scummiest player Day 1, instead using VCA to obtain primary scumreads on KK/Magua when the VCA by no means made Zar more town.

Also, why did you think scum would be desperate enough to save Ajax considering the potentially incriminating nature of resisting his lynch, especially considering that KK/Magua are experienced players?

[DeasVail]

*attempt to save Ajax

[Zar]

@DV-
I never said Zar has done NO scumhunting, by the way, but I like the GIANT FUCKING MISREP you pulled there. What that post actually says, though, is that if you can show me any number of posts where he's done any genuine/useful scumhunting, I can show you plenty more posts where all he has done is IIOA. But nice try.

do share, please.

[Zar]

T-Bone isn’t scum.

MoI, what makes you feel this way? I know I've based my town read on T-Bone exclusively on the position of his vote on the Ajax wagon, but I'm starting to see hito's POV about it.

[Zar]

It's theam/Zar.

I Object!

BBMolla, why did you feel you needed to drop that line of anticipated agony before KK's flip?

[theamatuer]

I think Tbone and Recks are town bc of theisr reactions to my earlier idea of scum having a ability unlocked by prof maifia

[T-Bone]

Deas, if Reck is scum, who's his partner?

[DeasVail]

Deas, if Reck is scum, who's his partner?

I'm not sure. If Reck flips scum and I'm still alive, I'll go from there.

[Lost Butterfly]

Day 4, Votecount 9

Zar (2) - xRECKONERx, BBmolla
xRECKONERx (1) - DeasVail
theamatuer (2) - MagnaofIllusion, T-Bone
DeasVail (1) - theamatuer

Not voting (1) - Zar

With 7 alive, it takes 4 to lynch or no-lynch.

Deadline:

June 23rd at 7:00 PM (EDT)

Countdown to deadline

: (expired on 2012-06-23 19:00:00)

[MagnaofIllusion]

I’m going to do my Zar re-read next but wanted to respond to things from the weekend first.

@Reck

– LLD wants me to lynch you as she thinks you are scum. I just want you to address one thing that has been bugging me.

Post 122 really is still bothering me. You were in the same position as me Day 1 – we both knew that the other had two scum partners via them being teammates in other games (Socio / Llama and Spryex / LLD). The first and foremost reason I had an immediate Town-read on you is that I know the odds of a single Team Mafia group drawing three scum roles is significantly less than drawing 2 (and much more significantly less than drawing 1). Yet you didn’t appear to put any of that level of thinking into your day 1 post. Why exactly did you not consider the reason for my solid Town read without referring to posts in relation to that fact?

--

I don't know.

If you can’t put together a logical group of partners to Reck at this stage with as much wagon and flip information as we have I’m not surprised no-one is taking your case seriously.

Maybe you want to spend some time working on that.

--

MoI: Thoughts on Molla?

Very likely Town. First because his play reads like BB-Town to me. Secondly because he already has two scum Teammates. The odds of tripling up much less likely than the odds of not. Especially given the number of double-ups we have so far.

That second part goes towards Reck also FTR.

--

MoI, what makes you feel this way? I know I've based my town read on T-Bone exclusively on the position of his vote on the Ajax wagon, but I'm starting to see hito's POV about it.

This is a post, pre-re-read, that makes me want to vote for you. Why are you focused on my T-Bone Town read? I have already said I revisted my reasoning in my QT and found it valid. I’m not going to waste the time elaborating at this juncture.

The fact that you are doing little to actively scum-hunt really bothers me. Your last 5 or so post are all defensive and weak. And you aren’t voting 5 days from deadline.

What is your read on TheAm?

[xRECKONERx]

V/LA until Wednesday night for a business trip

[DeasVail]

If you can’t put together a logical group of partners to Reck at this stage with as much wagon and flip information as we have I’m not surprised no-one is taking your case seriously.

Maybe you want to spend some time working on that.

I don't understand why this is so important.

[Zar]

This is a post, pre-re-read, that makes me want to vote for you. Why are you focused on my T-Bone Town read? I have already said I revisted my reasoning in my QT and found it valid. I’m not going to waste the time elaborating at this juncture.

I don't get the reasons as to why an innocent would miss the chance to ensure a scummie does not go into the hands of a player they don't trust. Also, if there's a chance that scum do not have daytalk in this game, then somebody other than Ajax within 1A that must have wanted Fonz' role gone. Of the remaining players, based on play alone, I have trouble seeing you as scum. From that group, that leaves me with Reck + T-Bone. I doubt the scum were all allocated on one judging group within D1. That would have made them all potential recipients of at least 1 of the scummies + the complete control of another judging category.

Also, for yet unexplained reasons, everybody and their cat has expressed suspicion about me at some point or another in this game, except for T-Bone.

The fact that you are doing little to actively scum-hunt really bothers me. Your last 5 or so post are all defensive and weak. And you aren’t voting 5 days from deadline.

The reasons for which my gameplay has been weak is related to mandatory overtime at work. Most of the time, I'm posting from the field from my phone. It's hard to go back and forth there. Both of my bigger suspects flipped town. TBF, I have no clue of who the hell is scum. :shrugs:

What is your read on TheAm?

Before abandoning me to solitude, all of my team-mates and myself agreed on the feeling that it's very unlikely that theam is scum.

[MagnaofIllusion]

I don't understand why this is so important.

Not sure what I can do to help you with this. We are on Day 4. There are tons of Dayplay relational data, VCA work that can be analyzed, full information on the make-up of the Judging Groups, and Nightplay results on which to analyze / rule-out / suggest scum pairings.

For example I think TheAm should be the lynch today. I can easily see groups with TheAm / Zar and TheAm / yourself based on dayplay and Judging Groups.

Currently you aren’t really motivating anyone to join your case with the information provided. You need to make more of an effort if you expect people to trust your scum-hunting over their own.

--

I don't get the reasons as to why an innocent would miss the chance to ensure a scummie does not go into the hands of a player they don't trust.

This is one of the reasons for suspecting T-Bone? Because that line of thinking in my mind applies much more to Deas (who was specifically given charge of the Day2 decision for 2C) over T-Bone (there was no discussion in QT in Day 1 group 1A about who to give to, also this group was 5 instead of 3).

Also, if there's a chance that scum do not have daytalk in this game, then somebody other than Ajax within 1A that must have wanted Fonz' role gone.

Let me stop you right there. Before I go into any further discussion about this – are you seriously suggesting there is any chance scum DON’T have Daytalk. Scum have an ability to meddle in some fashion with the Judging Groups. How do you expect that to even operate in a manner that is reasonable if the Scum team can’t communicate during the day given that all voting decisions for Judging QTs are made and processed

BEFORE

the lynch occurs?

Of the remaining players, based on play alone, I have trouble seeing you as scum. From that group, that leaves me with Reck + T-Bone. I doubt the scum were all allocated on one judging group within D1. That would have made them all potential recipients of at least 1 of the scummies + the complete control of another judging category.

Nothing about has anything to do with why T-Bone should be suspected. You says you doubt scum are all in the same group. I agree. Ajax was already in Group 1A. You aren’t giving me any reason why you don’t think there were scum in Groups 2A or 3A. This is a terrible line of logic on which to suspect T-Bone.

Also, for yet unexplained reasons, everybody and their cat has expressed suspicion about me at some point or another in this game, except for T-Bone.

Wait, whut? You are Hypo-Town. Everyone but T-Bone has suspected you. And that means you suspect him?

Before abandoning me to solitude, all of my team-mates and myself agreed on the feeling that it's very unlikely that theam is scum.

And yet here is the situation we have –

TheAm and yourself are the two leading wagons (mind you the phrase leading wagon isn’t very strong given that those wagons are 2 as opposed to 1). You don’t think he is scum but aren’t pressuring or voting anyone else as a viable wagon.

Do you see the disconnect I am having with your play?

[MagnaofIllusion]

So here's the deal.

I don't really see myself as moving my vote from TheAm.

He makes sense from a MoIputer standpoint.
His relational tells (or lack thereof) with Ajax make sense for a partnership between the two.
His general Day-play makes sense as scum.
My theories about Judging Groups align with him as a viable scum candidate.

Lastly, if I'm wrong (I don't think I am but I was wrong about KK so it's clear I'm not infallible) about TheAm I'd rather find out today as opposed to LYLO.

Zar and Deas look like the most likely partners. It is pretty telling that there has been no turbo-push on either of Zar or TheAm this game-day. Both have been sitting pretty much as the wagon leaders since the votes went on. I don't think scum would be content to let Town sit ripe for the picking like this as deadline comes to a close thus I don't think it possible for them both to be Town.

Honestly we have 3 lynches left. I think TheAm followed by both Zar / Deas nets Town a win at this juncture.

Vote TheAm. Thank you!

[DeasVail]

MoI:

I really doubt that me working out who would work with Reck-scum would convince anyone.

Zar:

When did your team abandon you?

~~

LYNCH RECK

[Zar]

@MoI: Eh, the last time I heard from my QT members they all expressed disagreement about me voting theam. We think he's bad town. I know I am town, so no, I don't think there was scum along the members of group 1B.

Posting from my phone. I'll address the other stuff when I get to a computer.

[MagnaofIllusion]

@MoI: Eh, the last time I heard from my QT members they all expressed disagreement about me voting theam. We think he's bad town. I know I am town, so no, I don't think there was scum along the members of group 1B.

Well as deadline approaches it looks like it is going to either be TheAm or you ...

If you are so confident in TheAm being Town you are willing to get lynched instead of him I'm not sure what exactly that says ...

[Zar]

I don't get the reasons as to why an innocent would miss the chance to ensure a scummie does not go into the hands of a player they don't trust.

This is one of the reasons for suspecting T-Bone? Because that line of thinking in my mind applies much more to Deas (who was specifically given charge of the Day2 decision for 2C) over T-Bone (there was no discussion in QT in Day 1 group 1A about who to give to, also this group was 5 instead of 3).

Also, if there's a chance that scum do not have daytalk in this game, then somebody other than Ajax within 1A that must have wanted Fonz' role gone.

Let me stop you right there. Before I go into any further discussion about this – are you seriously suggesting there is any chance scum DON’T have Daytalk. Scum have an ability to meddle in some fashion with the Judging Groups. How do you expect that to even operate in a manner that is reasonable if the Scum team can’t communicate during the day given that all voting decisions for Judging QTs are made and processed

BEFORE

the lynch occurs?

I see what you mean know. Dumb blonde moment

Of the remaining players, based on play alone, I have trouble seeing you as scum. From that group, that leaves me with Reck + T-Bone. I doubt the scum were all allocated on one judging group within D1. That would have made them all potential recipients of at least 1 of the scummies + the complete control of another judging category.

Nothing about has anything to do with why T-Bone should be suspected. You says you doubt scum are all in the same group. I agree. Ajax was already in Group 1A. You aren’t giving me any reason why you don’t think there were scum in Groups 2A or 3A. This is a terrible line of logic on which to suspect T-Bone.

Also, for yet unexplained reasons, everybody and their cat has expressed suspicion about me at some point or another in this game, except for T-Bone.

Wait, whut? You are Hypo-Town. Everyone but T-Bone has suspected you. And that means you suspect him?

Call it reverse OMGUS if you wish. But the notion of T-Bone calling me town all along rubs like an attempt to get credibility over my flip.

Before abandoning me to solitude, all of my team-mates and myself agreed on the feeling that it's very unlikely that theam is scum.

And yet here is the situation we have –

TheAm and yourself are the two leading wagons (mind you the phrase leading wagon isn’t very strong given that those wagons are 2 as opposed to 1). You don’t think he is scum but aren’t pressuring or voting anyone else as a viable wagon.

Do you see the disconnect I am having with your play?

I'm not as confident about my reads as I was after KK's flip and I haven't had a chance to go over each ISO in this game. It troubles me that we are potentially 1 mislynch away from LyLo. My best approach at this moment is PoE. I don't think you or theam are scum. I'm not scum. That leaves me with Molla, Reck, T-Bone and DeasVail.

Off the top of my head, Molla is my scummier read of the group. He's been hovering around the game doing nothing. (yes, this is somewhat hypocritical of me). The extent of his scumhunt was limited to D1. Zero hunt on D2, zero hunt on D3, and the extent of his said scumread on me is "lack of townishness + PoE". Of all the players in this game, Molla is the only one that has META on me from Westeros, and yet he seems to be ignoring it entirely.

DeasVail's play has hopped between Safe and OMGUS. After my exchange with him, even with his signup date, his play is striking as lacking in experience. DeasVail, about how many games have you played?

Reck has been championing my wagon since Day one, yet this is the only day he's finally decided to vote me and doesn't even seem to care to strongly push for the wagon. Reads as not being truly convinced about his scumread on me.

Then we have T-Bone, who's activity has been the lowest of the game. It is fairly evident to me now (unless the scumteam is Reck-theam), that at least one of Ajax's partners was on his wagon. T-Bone's vote on Ajax was the vote that made the lynch more viable than theam's. Hito is right when he points out that bussing at the right time can almost become a ticket to Victory (see chesskid's dayvigging of Spyrex in the Backroom Game).

[Zar]

Zar: When did your team abandon you?

Last time I had a comment about the game from Isa was 7 days ago. Johhog and Peregrine stopped by and said they would follow up, but I haven't heard from them.

[T-Bone]

I've made my vote. Not much more for me to say. I think we learn the most from a Theam flip. A Theam scumflip certainly points to Deas as his partner. Theam may be voting Deas, but he certainly is making no effort to swing our vote this way. I don't think Theam wants a Deas lynch at all.

Again I'd go with BBmolla and Deas too. A BB scumflip really points to Reck or Deas being his partner from the group shenanigans from Day 2.

I've looked at it all, Theam makes the most sense to me as scum, and I hope that all of you guys waivering on who to vote for will not let us get to a no lynch. We still have 3 days, but we're getting down to crunch time.

@Reck, @BB, if Zar is scum, who's his partner? Deas answer to this question about Reck was very lack-luster. We got three lynches left, we're looking for a pair of scum, not a single scum.

[DeasVail]

The problem is I'm not scum, so you're whole "theam is scum with DV theory" is wrong.

[DeasVail]

ugh, *your

[Lost Butterfly]

Prodding BBmolla and theamatuer.