Mini 1344: Murder on the HMS Regalia - Game Over


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Post Post #300 (ISO) » Mon Jun 18, 2012 3:59 am

Post by Ser Arthur Dayne »

Quarantining Espionage is stupid. I'm really not going to explain why. But it really is.

PS: I justed noticed that in this plan:
Ser Arthur Dayne wrote:
I also have a theory/idea I've been working with, that actually makes me more convinced Esp is town and that actually makes Guille (if it were true), look very bad. However, I think revealing it now would be a bad idea.


Trollie also looks very bad if it's true.

Here is the plan:
Lynch Defender.
Jail Sword.

We analyze what happens tomorrow. Trust me, it's worth it.
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Post Post #301 (ISO) » Mon Jun 18, 2012 4:05 am

Post by TheTrollie »

Espionage is the most popular quarantine right now. Saying its stupid but you wont explain why is just plain dumb and unhelpful. Same thing with an argument like "trust me, it's worth it." I think you are town but you are being utterly unhelpful to town with these posts.
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Post Post #302 (ISO) » Mon Jun 18, 2012 4:50 am

Post by image »

Afraid I'm going to be LA for the next few days, until the 22nd. I'll try to follow and post occasionally, but don't count on it.

@Mod: V/LA until the 22nd.
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Post Post #303 (ISO) » Mon Jun 18, 2012 5:06 am

Post by image »

@Ser Arthur Dayne:
You're jumping on a D3f3nd3r wagon just because you don't want either of Espeonage or Malakittens lynched, right? So if you have a theory that says guille2015 and TheTrollie are scum, wouldn't it be better to push one of those instead of voting for D3f3nd3r? Even without revealing your super-secret theory which totally exists you swear?
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Post Post #304 (ISO) » Mon Jun 18, 2012 5:53 am

Post by Ser Arthur Dayne »

image wrote:@Ser Arthur Dayne: You're jumping on a D3f3nd3r wagon just because you don't want either of Espeonage or Malakittens lynched, right? So if you have a theory that says guille2015 and TheTrollie are scum, wouldn't it be better to push one of those instead of voting for D3f3nd3r? Even without revealing your super-secret theory which totally exists you swear?

No, my theory is worthless until tomorrow.
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Post Post #305 (ISO) » Mon Jun 18, 2012 9:45 am

Post by Malakittens »

Hmm hmmm. I still feel that putting the VT in the jail is the better thing to do. <.< I still agree with quarantining Espon.
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Post Post #306 (ISO) » Mon Jun 18, 2012 12:38 pm

Post by Espeonage »

TheTrollie wrote:Espionage is the most popular quarantine right now. Saying its stupid but you wont explain why is just plain dumb and unhelpful. Same thing with an argument like "trust me, it's worth it." I think you are town but you are being utterly unhelpful to town with these posts.


Actually all the reasons why you would quarantine are now no longer in effect. So yeah quarantining me is pretty stupid.
Unquarantine, quarantine: Ser Arthur


Ok guille. You point has been made. There is no way to get a lynch on you today. That was a good post. You've gone from gut scum to niggling worry. I'll reveal if I feel like I want a lynch on you tomorrow.

I didn't know how close deadline was tbh. Anyways, I'm pretty sure defender isn't scum. So considering the other options close to deadline I'm going to have to go back to mala. Fairly simple logic right?

Unvote, Vote: Mala
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Post Post #307 (ISO) » Mon Jun 18, 2012 1:58 pm

Post by Malakittens »

-Headdesks-, so you rather lynch someone who is trying to help the town out of D1 fluff instead of lynching someone who is unhelpful and just tunneling someone. Yep, great logic there.
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Post Post #308 (ISO) » Mon Jun 18, 2012 3:05 pm

Post by Espeonage »

Malakittens wrote:-Headdesks-, so you rather lynch someone who is trying to help the town out of D1 fluff instead of lynching someone who is unhelpful and just tunneling someone. Yep, great logic there.


I'm more sure of defender being town than you being town. I don't want myself to be lynched, so there is really only one option. See mala the point is that while he isn't playing optimally, I don't feel that he is scum. I've had reason to suspect you early so while tiny that is the deciding factor.

tbh I think all three of the wagons are on town so it's kinda messed up. But I was asked to make a compromise lynch so I'm doing what I can.
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Post Post #309 (ISO) » Mon Jun 18, 2012 3:56 pm

Post by TheTrollie »

Espeonage wrote:
TheTrollie wrote:Espionage is the most popular quarantine right now. Saying its stupid but you wont explain why is just plain dumb and unhelpful. Same thing with an argument like "trust me, it's worth it." I think you are town but you are being utterly unhelpful to town with these posts.


Actually all the reasons why you would quarantine are now no longer in effect. So yeah quarantining me is pretty stupid.
Unquarantine, quarantine: Ser Arthur



what do u mean?
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Post Post #310 (ISO) » Mon Jun 18, 2012 4:19 pm

Post by Psyche »

Okay. Guess I'll read the thread now. Possibly not...No. I'm not in the mood just yet. Maybe I'm overdoing it.
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Post Post #311 (ISO) » Mon Jun 18, 2012 4:48 pm

Post by BK201 »

If Espe doesn't state his actual read on Gulie I'm fine with his lynch. Otherwise Mala is still a decent choice.
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Post Post #312 (ISO) » Mon Jun 18, 2012 4:49 pm

Post by BK201 »

/motivates Psyche
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Post Post #313 (ISO) » Mon Jun 18, 2012 4:50 pm

Post by RichardGHP »

NabakovNabakov replaces brundibar. Vote count forthcoming.
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Post Post #314 (ISO) » Mon Jun 18, 2012 4:57 pm

Post by BK201 »

Let's lock this guy up tonight.

Unquarintine:
Quarintine: Ser Arthur D
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Post Post #315 (ISO) » Mon Jun 18, 2012 5:40 pm

Post by NabakovNabakov »

Hey, call me NN, Nab, or NabNab (if you're not into that whole brevity thing).

I saw this game was in deadline when I put in for replacement, so I read the thread on spec. Let's get started.

Thoughts on the quarantine mechanic. Aiming to quarantine town is stupid. All vanilla townies should aspire to be NK'd. It means you played so well during the day that the scum would rather kill you than seek PRs. If we quarantine someone based on their perceived townieness, we're either blocking a PR or keeping a VT from martyrdom. In my experience, scum cannot treat their kill as a "faction ability" until they're down to only one man (Ex. if the last surviving scum was a rolecop, he could both kill and investigate), so quarantining any scum is likely to put pressure on the whole faction. In general, I think the quarantine mechanic has already done a lot of harm by inspiring so much discussion of roles (and good God, a first-post VT claim. Has the world gone mad?) In general, town plays during the day and scum plays at night. Blurting out every single thing about nightplay that crosses your mind just gives the scum more to work with. Furthermore, all this baseless speculation has hijacked useful discussion for the day.

ITT, Espeonage (known hereafter as 'Peon') declares that he plays the game poorly and is proud of it. I've seen people hold back information in productive ways, but in Peon's case, it just strikes me as a way of justifying his predilection for 'argument by intimidation.' (See 120, 166, 182, 192, 226, and 247 for examples). It's also clear that he does not think before he posts, or at least he doesn't copyedit (143 belongs in a book of bad modernist poetry, not in a Mafia game), which helps explain why he hops around so damn much. At the same time, this does not have the character of scum trying to find a competing wagon to take some pressure off, but of genuine (albeit stupid) attempts to scumhunt. Real scum would have taken the lead on BK and driven it hard. Nothing like a lurker wagon to distract. I mostly plan on ignoring Peon.

Guille's playstyle appears to be founded upon chain-lynch speculation. This is terrible, but I don't think he realizes it. His argument with Ser (see post 232) gets to the heart of the matter. Mafia is played neither entirely ex ante nor entirely ex post. We must have a spirited argument about whether we think each lynch is the correct lynch, just as we must consider the results of that lynch in later days. Simply sitting back and projecting the scenarios from a given townflip or scumflip is pointless. When the flip happens, we'll still be here to react to it.

I'm not going to fault Mala for advocating no-lynch early. Most sites have a much more night-heavy meta, so I don't think she understood that MS games are won and lost almost entirely during the day. Jury's out on play after that point. Her trust of Peon has been idiosyncratic but internally consistent, and I notice that it was behind her vote on Defender (which sets it apart from the totally craven wagoning we got from Ser and Shotgun)

In fact:
Unvote; Vote: drmyshotgun
. Sparse posting but attentive enough to avoid modprods. Aims mostly for the easy wagons ("scumslip", newbcard, true newbie). Classic D1 scum profile.
Unquarantine
until I decide what to do with the damn thing. (Chances are we won't even have a quarantine the first few nights. The likelihood of us settling on a quarantine
and
a lynch simultaneously and before deadline are low.)
Show
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"You shut up!" the second woman shouted back.

"I agree with NN"
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Post Post #316 (ISO) » Mon Jun 18, 2012 6:04 pm

Post by Espeonage »

I like this guy.

Also I much prefer Espe as a shortening of my username. And yeah I'm terrible at this game. But I still soldier on.
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Post Post #317 (ISO) » Mon Jun 18, 2012 6:14 pm

Post by Psyche »

<3
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Post Post #318 (ISO) » Mon Jun 18, 2012 7:03 pm

Post by RichardGHP »

Tenth Vote Count of Day 1


Lynch:

[2] Espeonage - [D3f3nd3r, sword_of_omens]
[3] Malakittens - [BK201, guille2015, Espeonage]
[5] D3f3nd3r - [image, TheTrollie, Malakittens, Ser Arthur Dayne, drmyshotgun]
[1] drmyshotgun - [Nabakov²]

[2] Not Voting - [Phillammon, Psyche]

Quarantine:

[3] Espeonage - [drmyshotgun, Malakittens, TheTrollie]
[1] sword_of_omens - [Ser Arthur Dayne]
[3] Ser Arthur Dayne - [guille2015, Espeonage, BK201]

[6] Not Voting - [Nabakov², sword_of_omens, image, D3f3nd3r, Phillammon, Psyche]


V/LA: drmyshotgun, until June 20
image, until June 22

Prodding: sword_of_omens
Replacing: Phillammon, if he doesn't post within the next 44 minutes

With 13 alive, it takes 7 to lynch and 7 to quarantine.
Deadline for this day is June 23, 1630h UTC+12. You have just under four days.
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Post Post #319 (ISO) » Mon Jun 18, 2012 7:27 pm

Post by sword_of_omens »

On my phone...sorry, didnt get as much free time as i'd like on Friday, while getting ready from my trip..
Anyhoo I am still limitted access this week and will probably post at night on my phone, like now until I get back...
I think i might be interested in voting Malakit or Brundi/Nab today...i wanted to keep an eye on brundibar, because almost all of his posts were directed at Malakit in a way to me that looked like coaching, and then followed up with a vote for no reason on Espe..now Nabakov has replaced in and seems to subtly back Malakits play......
Unvote
for now
Gonna go back and re-read a few people...
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Post Post #320 (ISO) » Mon Jun 18, 2012 7:47 pm

Post by Espeonage »

Unquarantine, Quarantine: Sword


:)
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Post Post #321 (ISO) » Mon Jun 18, 2012 8:15 pm

Post by Phillammon »

Holy heck oops. Missed the prod due to unforseen circumstances. Wall incoming.
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Post Post #322 (ISO) » Mon Jun 18, 2012 9:47 pm

Post by Phillammon »

Espe: A bit strange on the initial claim, but beyond that you've made yourself pretty useful with your posting and discussions, so fairly townie.
Sword: Not much posting, but what there is is good. Townie.
NabNab: ♥. Townie, after 1 post.
Psyche: Post something! Null.
BK: A couple of posts I'd like to see explanation for, but otherwise good discussion. Townish.
Trollie: Tunnelvisioned. That's not a good thing. Was leaning townie, now Null.
Mala: I... can't really read you at all. The various problems we've had with meta aren't helping. Null.
Dayne: Good work, good posting, good content. Townish.
Image: Few posts, but good contributions and challenges. Townish.
Guile. Very townish, and I'm loving 237. Town. This is my safest read.
Shotgun: A couple of odd moments, which throw me off, but leaning townish. When there's a communal jail, you'd assume there to be scum PRs, after all.
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Post Post #323 (ISO) » Tue Jun 19, 2012 1:23 am

Post by Ser Arthur Dayne »

Phill... do you have any scum reads? o.O It's town/town/town/null/townish/null/null/townish/townish/verytown/leaningtownish in that order.

Also, why isn't Defender on your list?
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Post Post #324 (ISO) » Tue Jun 19, 2012 2:57 am

Post by Phillammon »

If I had to guess, Scum lies in Townish or Null. As for Defender, I made this by going through the ISOs list, failed to spot he hadn't been replaced. My bad. Which is odd, because he's actually the closest thing I have to a scumread- lack of posting, combined with needless speculation with little contribution and little explanation or qualification for his confirmation of his random vote. Still not very scummy, though, so yeah, no real scumreads.
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